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Global financial system implosion begins

Fed’s Newest Tool Has Become More Attractive on Rate-Cut Bets
December 19, 2023 https://archive.is/Ep6Ar


The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) became cheaper than the discount window
Cheers for that. (angry emoii is at the sharks in suits who fucking game everything).
Still getting my head round it but its not good.

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level will be interesting at what point Jerome "transitory inflation" Powell goes.
 


 
In New York and cities across the United States, office owners are reckoning with a market slammed by higher borrowing costs, declining valuations and a rise in remote work. Some are choosing to walk away from buildings, while others are opting to extend debt and hold on to properties.
Wonder how much all the commercial real estate loans are worth if they were marked to market?
 
Lessons from a lifetime in investment
Eternal verities in investment and finance are often counterintuitive
FT. 26/01/24 https://archive.is/Q7nBd
Yet nothing in investment is ever safe — witness how the collapse in US Treasuries contributed to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other US regional banks last year. And the regulators’ attempts to make individual pension funds risk-free makes the overall market structure more risky: if everyone pursues the same strategy, when the market moves, it moves all one way. That eternal verity re-emerged in the pension fund crisis in the gilt market in 2022.
After a lifetime spent watching the markets, I am struck how, with each new cycle in which central banks act as lenders of last resort, debt mounts inexorably. We continue to muddle through. But a great debt denouement is inevitable because debt cannot rise faster than incomes for ever.
Since debt implosions are inherently deflationary — see Japan in the 1990s — gold, ever resilient against inflation, may not provide insurance against falling prices but government bonds certainly will. To conclude; it is tempting to quote the US economist Herbert Stein who remarked that if something can’t go on forever, then it will stop. But as I have remarked here before, the wise rejoinder by fellow economist Rudi Dornbusch was: yes, but it will go on for a lot longer than you anticipate.
 
Fed’s Newest Tool Has Become More Attractive on Rate-Cut Bets
December 19, 2023 https://archive.is/Ep6Ar


The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) became cheaper than the discount window
Getting wound up in March....meanwhile another US regional bank failing ...NYCommunity.
Under Basel accords the big boys can't acquire these banks , unless/until its truly a fire sale....another reason why BTFP got arbitraged.

Though given that it was NYCommunity that bought Signature not sure cannibalism is that good an idea
 
Since we document when Burry is shorting the S&P500, we should also document today’s announcement that he now has no shorts at all, and that he is long in health and tech stocks. Meanwhile, since this end-October story about him shorting the S&P 500, the index has risen by 20%, which would suggest that his bet was not actually a great one…
 
Yes but no. Position wasn't taken in October -coming out of 3rd Quarter is when companies start tidying there balance sheets and when markets find a rally or (a big crash historically)\. From memory put on in summer, but will conceed as did at time, did stabilize and put on growth.

It also hasn't been ticketyboo last couple of years as you have tried to maintain (nor is it still)


Commercial real estate if anything is getting worse: The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here

As is US credit card debt Americans' credit card debt hits record $1.13 trillion

More Yanks ARE playing the markets though.. What Percentage of Americans Own Stock? up 6% since Biden came in. But think Burry's analysis is right- they will be betting the favourites and there aren't enough fire exits when it goes.. 3 of the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia) each have valuations higher than the entire Chinese stock market (But that says as much about China as it does them
 
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Also noticed yesterday bullion dealer I use seems to be v low on physical stock. Gold aint been that great as an inflation hedge last couple of years, mind
 
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Slightly different from the usual on here - the swear count is incredibly high by the way for those with delicate ears.
The thesis here is that western society achieved an economic equilibrium after World War II where the difference between rich and poor was greatly reduced and everyone could afford a home.
Naturally the forces of global trading have over the last 40 years or so created a wealth funnel whereby the super rich are leeching from the poor. And all this from a (retired) "trader".
The secret economics destroying Britain | Gary Stevenson
 
We discussed this guy last year (thread verdict: good stuff, worth your time).

Will give this one a listen and see if he's saying anything new :)
Nah it's the same as last time except now he's written a book about it. A good and simple message though: Rich people put their money in assets, poor people spend it. This is a natural feedback loop that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. I know this because I saw it from the inside and got rewarded for making bets based on my insight. Expect house prices to go up and quality of life to go down because neither political party even talk about this as if it's a problem, yet alone propose solutions.
 
Yeah, nothing groundbreaking, just refreshing to hear it from someone who's been on the inside.
 
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Partying Like 1999? An NBubble Isn’t Here
Bloomberg Opinion|John Authers. February 23, 2024
The current situation with Nvidia and AI isn’t nearly as extreme as the dot-com era, but the prospect of cheaper money on Fed rate cuts could add fuel.
An NBubble?
Cue Prince. Once again, it appears that markets are partying like it’s 1999. Prince’s 1983 song was financially prophetic. In 2000, it would be “party over, oops, out of time!” Therefore, everyone should live life to the full the year before. That’s just what happened 16 years later. Current comparisons to the epic melt-up in dot-com stocks look reasonable.
As the world contemplates the phenomenal growth of Nvidia Corp., whose market worth has just surged by more than $275 billion in response to its ongoing surge in profits, thoughts turn not only to dot-coms but the Great Crash of 1929 and even the 49er Gold Rush.
 
Partying Like 1999? An NBubble Isn’t Here
Bloomberg Opinion|John Authers. February 23, 2024
The current situation with Nvidia and AI isn’t nearly as extreme as the dot-com era, but the prospect of cheaper money on Fed rate cuts could add fuel.


The more money that flows into the AI revolution the more it antagonizes the commercial real estate problem. Even among the big seven.. Apple, Google , Microsoft and Amazon are planning on laying off another 34,000 this year as they restructure towards AI
 
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LCF are back in the news because civil petitioners are suing in the High Court to put right what the FSA and Southwark Crown Court apparently can't:

London Capital & Finance ran a “Ponzi scheme” where money raised from UK retail investors was spent on diamond earrings, horses, shotguns and membership of Annabel’s nightclub, a court has been told.

London Capital & Finance ran ‘Ponzi’ scheme from outset, court hears​

High Court case into collapse of mini-bond issuer hears LCF loans were used to buy luxury items including gold, bronze statues and Porsches.​

Nicola Blackburn

BYNICOLA BLACKBURN
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Collapsed mini-bond issuer London Capital & Finance (LCF) ran a Ponzi scheme and lent to entities that bought luxury items including gold and Porsches, the High Court has heard.
Proceedings began yesterday in a civil case brought by LCF administrators against the firm’s former chief executive, Michael Thomson.
In what is one of the biggest investment failures of recent years, LCF collapsed in January 2019 with about £237m of bondholders’ investments missing.
The Serious Fraud Office has opened an investigation into the individuals associated with LCF, while the Financial Services Compensation Scheme has paid out £115m in a government-led scheme to compensate investors.
Stephen Robins KC, representing LCF administrators Smith & Williamson in the proceedings, yesterday told the High Court that LCF had been a ‘Ponzi scheme from the outset’ as it used ‘new investors’ monies to pay returns to existing investors’, according to the Financial Times.
Robins said the money loaned by LCF was spent on luxury items, including gold bullion, land in Jamaica, Porsches and bronze statues. It was also used to cover private school fees and donations to the Conservative Party, he said.

LCF had told investors the funds were used to provide capital to small and medium-sized companies.
Thomson’s lawyers have denied the claims, telling the court that LCF did not engage in illegitimate business activities and lent ‘monies in bona fide transactions on commercial terms’.
They said that save for LCF’s parent company, LCF’s borrowers were not connected with LCF, according to the FT.
The FCA last week fined LCF’s former compliance director Floris Jakobus Huisamen £31,800 and banned him from working in financial services after finding he had ‘recklessly signed off hundreds of financial promotions’.
The FCA has not imposed a financial penalty on the £237m collapsed mini-bond issuer, ruling last year that doing so would divert funds that may be used to pay compensation to bondholders after the firm became insolvent.
What did he get for causing all this financial mayhem and misery?
TEN MONTHS JAIL - SUSPENDED FOR TWO YEARS

Maybe this should be in the Low Interest on Savings thread?
I was listening this week to the Radio 4 book of the week - about two unfortunate men who were hanged for sodomy in 1835. How times have changed!
 
So is the Bundesbank "independent" like the Bank of England?
Unlike other central banks such as the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve (but like the ECB), the Bundesbank is not officially responsible for maintaining the stability of the financial system and is not a lender of last resort.....The statutory independence of the central bank guaranteed by the Bundesbank Act does not ensure that there will be no disputes between the central bank and government.



The potential headache isn't necessarily between Bundesbank and the German Government.....its between member states and ECB. Been there before 10 years ago - came up with a sticking plaster of a solution...about to come under more sustained pressure
 
Maybe this should be in the Low Interest on Savings thread?
I’m not sure it belongs on either thread. It’s a story about a fraudulent scheme, relatively small-fry in the scheme of things, which was uncovered with the perpetrators being punished (lightly, but that’s not the point). Why does it add to debates either on global financial collapse or on how to achieve the best rates of return?
 
Unlike other central banks such as the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve (but like the ECB), the Bundesbank is not officially responsible for maintaining the stability of the financial system and is not a lender of last resort.....The statutory independence of the central bank guaranteed by the Bundesbank Act does not ensure that there will be no disputes between the central bank and government.



The potential headache isn't necessarily between Bundesbank and the German Government.....its between member states and ECB. Been there before 10 years ago - came up with a sticking plaster of a solution...about to come under more sustained pressure
Yeah, there is a fundamental tension in having a single unified currency with a central bank on the one hand, but having autonomous member states with their own fiscal systems on the other.
 
Yeah, there is a fundamental tension in having a single unified currency with a central bank on the one hand, but having autonomous member states with their own fiscal systems on the other.
In its initial plan blips were supposed to be opportunities to ratchet towards further 'ever closer union' -didn't quite work out like that 10 years ago during the sovereign debt crisis.....looking like they are going to get the chance for another go
 
Who’s going to win the next financial plumbing test? The US, of course
FT Opinion US. 20/03/24 https://archive.is/853zy
Asset managers will struggle to adjust to the T+1 slashing of settlement time
The other issue is that settlement processes are, as consultant Virginie O’Shea put it, “pretty crap”. The biggest, best resourced asset managers have top-notch tech that makes it run smoothly. Some of the smaller shops, however, rely on excel spreadsheets and, believe it or not, faxes. In a recent report, custody bank BNY Mellon said a third of client trades did not yet meet the (May 28) future criteria. “It’s going to be an absolute mess,” said O’Shea. “Failure rates will go up . . . Transaction costs will go up.”
Banks may decide that some of the more antiquated asset managers are simply not worth the bother. The “deal with it” view is: Those unable to execute client orders and redemptions smoothly should not be doing this job. Cash buffers in mainstream European funds are limited but should be able to cushion most of the blow. Also, faxes? Seriously?
In addition, the magic of capitalism will provide solutions. Custodian banks can step up and offer liquidity to asset managers that need it. That is true. But it comes at a cost, one that will be borne largely by those in and east of the London timezone that are already struggling to keep pace with the US investment powerhouses. Currency trading in London — the jewel in the City’s crown — is also likely to suffer.
Sticking with the pain of speeding up settlement is worth it. But this whole exercise illustrates that for all of Europe’s efforts to flex its financial muscle, if the US says jump, global investors ask how high. Other markets are, as Jim McCaughan, former chief executive of Principal Asset Management, said, “more fragile than people recognise”. This apparently minor plumbing upgrade puts the ecosystem under another layer of costly strain and further cements US dominance.
 
Shocking news from St Lucia:
Caribbean Development Bank President resigns amid controversy. Dr Hyginus 'Gene' Leon has resigned from his position as President of the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) with immediate effect, bringing an abrupt end to his tenure leading the regional multilateral institution.1 day ago

 

 
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