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Global financial system implosion begins

It is floating in a magic space bubble mind.
The bubble that's popping includes covid rents due, student loans being owed again, US treasury reckoning savings will be burnt through...and while people have taken advantage of being able to it on their credit card at ever increasing rates they are going to find that harder too.
Skilled jobs have shedding all year, though number of jobs is up as people take on second part time ones to get by..whilst homeless a.And thats just the states where data is reasonably honest (though the WH did have a go at changing the definition of recession last year) China is new just withholding data (on a variety of things) as a pinch of salt won't cut it.


Things didn't return to normal after 2008 the cost of borrowing was slashed and that became the normal. Now we are in trouble again and that won't work so the new paradigm is lengthen periods on endebted servitude.

Takes buyers and sellers to make a market ..but it's switching from buy the dip to sell on the rallies
 
The bubble that's popping includes covid rents due, student loans being owed again, US treasury reckoning savings will be burnt through...and while people have taken advantage of being able to it on their credit card at ever increasing rates they are going to find that harder too.
Skilled jobs have shedding all year, though number of jobs is up as people take on second part time ones to get by..whilst homeless a.And thats just the states where data is reasonably honest (though the WH did have a go at changing the definition of recession last year) China is new just withholding data (on a variety of things) as a pinch of salt won't cut it.


Things didn't return to normal after 2008 the cost of borrowing was slashed and that became the normal. Now we are in trouble again and that won't work so the new paradigm is lengthen periods on endebted servitude.

Takes buyers and sellers to make a market ..but it's switching from buy the dip to sell on the rallies
Let's assume for a minute that all this is correct. Then what? What are the political consequences you derive from it? What political changes are you suggesting?
 
Let's assume for a minute that all this is correct. Then what? What are the political consequences you derive from it? What political changes are you suggesting?
Well the BRICs meeting next week will be intresting. Active decoupling from the dollar.

Not being house will impact on US ability to cut rates; not that they are going to ...most likely up another .25 next meeting. They are looking for unemployment to rise (one problem with US system is you can fall off the end of benefits; these people don't fall off the earth just off the books- by the end of this they'll have to address that). Other than that quite a clean dirty shirt they are aware housing is over priced and are right to be trying to correct that. But it will hurt and in the run up to US Presidential's... Which is unfortunate given the likely alternative...

Meanwhile banks have on their books over priced assets and 15years+ worth of underwater Tbonds..so liquidity cruch and further 'consolidation' in banking. Bad news for thems that have been eating through what savings they had making minimum credit card payments.


China...well they already built their autobahns...but can't have too many disengaged 20somethings. So increased likelihood of overseas adventures...Balance of power rests with India....walking away fom all the inward investment they were putting into Afghanistan was a dull move.

EUrozone further pressures towards full Federalization.

Further inflationary pressures on food prices also inbound (Black Sea breakdown and global burnings impact on this year's harvests)
 
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I would hope we have learned that if you only read and watch media that talks excitedly about negative patterns in whatever financial indicators they have cherry-picked, you will not end up with a realistic assessment of the economic situation. Be cautious before betting against the institutions of power, because they hold all the cards and they can change the rules of the game if it starts to turn against them. Systemic weaknesses that lead to catastrophic collapses are very real. However, so are the mechanisms that allow power relations to re-establish themselves, normally to the detriment of those at the bottom, not at the top.
 
I would hope we have learned that if you only read and watch media that talks excitedly about negative patterns in whatever financial indicators they have cherry-picked, you will not end up with a realistic assessment of the economic situation. Be cautious before betting against the institutions of power, because they hold all the cards and they can change the rules of the game if it starts to turn against them. Systemic weaknesses that lead to catastrophic collapses are very real. However, so are the mechanisms that allow power relations to re-establish themselves, normally to the detriment of those at the bottom, not at the top.
That, and watching such videos seemingly makes one unable to post coherently on bulletin boards
 
15 1/2 years later. What have we learned from this thread? what’s the prognosis? Another 15 years to wait? Economics nerds need somewhere to post I guess.
I reckon the thread is a bulletin board version of what the Keiser Report used to be on RT.
I used to follow the Keiser Report back around 2010-2014 and I noticed that Faisal Islam used to follow them on Twitter - and engage.
I expect after a while he got the message that Max and Stacey were all about wheeling out disaster tropes and not about intellectual discourse, though in that period we had "Grexit" along with bank fraud and austerity. It was all very exciting and slightly at one remove.

I would say Niall Ferguson is the heavyweight covering this area. Nowadays more into right leaning politics, his viewpoints somehow melded into lived experience with his marriage to Ayaam Hirsi Ali - a front line campaigner for individual autonomy as an ex Muslim.

Can I suggest Niall Ferguson's latest book might fit snugly on the GFSIB reading list?
doom-cover.jpg
 
To whom it may concern, there is no money left. Kind regards and good luck
The counter argument to that is that as RT constantly told you we live in an era of fiat money - which is why you should switch all your savings in Bitcoin, Putincoin, Ethereum or whatever coin.
Therefore if the money runs out - you just make some more.
Personally I'd sooner trust most government's fiat money than Mt Gox however.
 
How bonds ate the entire financial system
A very short, very wild history of the market that will shape the next financial crisis
FT. August 3 2023 https://archive.li/RKBOd
Long but worth reading to the end.
Fed economists sound alarm on hedge funds gaming US Treasuries
September 13, 2023
"The Fed is unlikely to view this accumulation of basis positions under too favorable a light and may eventually want to clamp down on them," said Steven Zeng, U.S. rates strategist at Deutsche Bank. "However, the approach they take may not be straightforward as the Fed does not have direct regulatory oversight over hedge funds," he said.

The Fed declined to comment on possible policy actions.
LIQUIDITY CONCERNS

The unwinding of basis trades contributed to illiquidity in Treasuries in March 2020, when the market seized up amid rising fears about the coronavirus pandemic, prompting the U.S. central bank to buy $1.6 trillion of government bonds.
 
Had planned on writing something today on the train but ended up couldn't be arsed to get stuff I needed out of suitcase. And knackered now


Anyways

How the 1/4 ended (+ some other stuff and opinion)
 
Regulators turn up heat on shadow banks after market blow-ups
September 29 2023 https://archive.ph/hZtJi
Policymakers tackle unintended consequences of post-financial crisis reforms in era of high interest rates
Global financial regulators are preparing a clampdown on so-called shadow banking as they confront the unintended consequences of previous waves reform that pushed risks into hidden corners of the financial system.

Policymakers have been warning all year — with mounting alarm — about the risks and sizes of bets taken by some hedge funds and private equity houses. But now, fears that rising interest rates could derail some of their mammoth bets is turning that talk in to action.
In recent weeks, the UK’s top financial regulator has drawn up plans for a probe into private capital valuations, while the Bank of England has declared such “non-banks” to be so important that policymakers should create a new facility to lend directly to them in times of crises.

Global watchdogs at the Financial Stability Board have launched a new review that could limit hedge fund leverage and increase transparency on their borrowings. In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission has brought forward policies on fund transparency so stringent that some are threatening lawsuits.
Together, the non-banks on regulators’ radar — which include hedge funds, pensions and insurers — account for 50 per cent of global financial services assets.
 
Metro Bank in talks about urgent £600mn capital raise
04/10/23 https://archive.ph/pYama
Rating agency Fitch put Metro on negative watch earlier on Wednesday, citing increased risks to its business model, capital position and funding of the company, which had a market capitalisation of about £85mn at Wednesday’s close after a 98 per cent plunge in the past five years.
Fitch said: “We expect the group’s earnings prospects to come under pressure in the short term due to rising funding costs, resulting from higher competition for deposits and given likely more expensive access to wholesale funding. In addition, capitalisation is tight.”
Fitch also called attention to the £350mn of senior bonds that Metro must refinance by next October.
 
I haven’t kept abreast of the Metro Bank saga. Does anybody know how it went so badly wrong? That article just refers to some kind of commercial loan problem, but doesn’t say what it was.
 
I accidentally turned up this - does it hold true today?
 
I accidentally turned up this - does it hold true today?
This bit from one of the responses definitely doesn’t hold true today

ITS a political forum for young people
 
I accidentally turned up this - does it hold true today?

"clicky" 😆

Well I guess that's even more true today due to the ageing of the userbase, but I suspect they actually meant to say "cliquey". Also it rhymes with "leek", not "lick".

It would be good to know who they were on here. I reckon the reason they got harsh treatment was because they said something bigoted or stupid. Interesting that they don't elaborate on the reasons they were here.
 
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