German Politics (was Germany: Elections 2017)

[Idris2002]

otzenpunk - what do you make of this Kevin Kühnert lad? Too little, too late?

 

[Idris2002]

Jacobin on the SPD:

Can Anyone Save the SPD?

Few if any signs of hope here.

 

[otzenpunk]

otzenpunk - what do you make of this Kevin Kühnert lad? Too little, too late?

Well, I think he's an honest lad, and he's got the right ideas. In fact, I've met him personally a couple of years ago in a football context, when he wasn't famous yet.

But unfortunately I can't see, how he and his allies could be able to transform the SPD back into something useful. This party just lacks a proper base for a left swing. Partly this originates in the German proportional election system, which is of course fairer than British FPTP, but back in the beginning of the 2000s, when Schröder enforced Blair-style "New Labour" politics under his government, it offered an incentive to left-wing party members to abandon the SPD and found a new organization called WASG, which shortly after merged with the socialist former Eastern German state party PDS into Die LINKE.

In hindsight, this probably turned out really bad for Germany as a whole, because ongoing animosities between SPD and LINKE practically prevented centre-left coalition governments, and thus investing time, money, activism, votes, etc. in Die LINKE has been mostly wasted since, because the prospects to become part of a government and be able to implement left-wing policies was basically zero. On the other side, the SPD has ever since been in the close grip of the right wingers and "centrists", and there's no silent regiment of left-wing people left, like it was in Labour, which could develop enough power to form a Momentum comparable movement. In effect, the result is, that there's no real opportunity now for marginalized people in Germany to take part in political decisions on the federal level, and that may have boosted the rise of the AfD.

And, to come back to Kühnert, don't forget, that he's just the leader of the youth organisation, without holding any real office. There's a reason, why the youth organisation is called "young socialists", and not "young socialdemocrats". It's pretty normal for their leaders to provoke their elder party comrades with "socialist" ideas. But Gerhard Schröder and Andrea Nahles for example led the youth organization as well, and did the same. There seem to be just two kinds of former SPD youth leaders. Those, that adapt later on and become your normal SPD bureaucrat, and those, that you'll never hear from again, once they reach the age threshold. We'll see, to which group Kevin Kühnert will belong.

 

[brogdale]

After, last month, gaining 27.5% in Saxony & 23.5 % in Brandenburg, the AfD got 23.8% in yesterday's regional election in Thuringia (up 13.2% since 2014). Worrying levels of normalisation for the far right.

Die Linke came top with 31%; more here:

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

e2a : should have said...C&P the article title, then Google to get round the FT £wall

 

[Pickman's model]

After, last month, gaining 27.5% in Saxony & 23.5 % in Brandenburg, the AfD got 23.8% in yesterday's regional election in Thuringia (up 13.2% since 2014). Worrying levels of normalisation for the far right.

Die Linke came top with 31%; more here:

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

e2a : should have said...C&P the article title, then Google to get round the FT £wall

or you could just go to the guardian Far-right AfD surges to second place in German state election

 

[brogdale]

or you could just go to the guardian Far-right AfD surges to second place in German state election

Indeed.

 

[tim]

After, last month, gaining 27.5% in Saxony & 23.5 % in Brandenburg, the AfD got 23.8% in yesterday's regional election in Thuringia (up 13.2% since 2014). Worrying levels of normalisation for the far right.

Die Linke came top with 31%; more here:

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

e2a : should have said...C&P the article title, then Google to get round the FT £wall

31% for Die Linke is an excellent result.

 

[Idris2002]

How the AFD (spit) is targetting cultural institutions:

The Far Right Is Taking On Cultural Institutions

 

[Idris2002]

Son of former German president stabbed to death:

German ex-president Richard von Weizsäcker's son stabbed to death - CNN

No word yet if it was political in any way, but definitely a bit of a WTF moment.

 

[Reno]

That’s a ten minute walk from where I live.

 

[Reno]

Reading the latest news in Germany, the motive is complex and has to do with a hatred of Richard von Weizsäcker but the short of it is that the attacker had severe mental health problems.

 

[ska invita]

31% for Die Linke is an excellent result.

I remember reading last year that Sarah Wagenknecht was taking Die Linke down a more closed borders, in the context of things anti-migrant path... How much did that come to pass, anyone know? Has Die Linkes platform changed much?

 

[otzenpunk]

I remember reading last year that Sarah Wagenknecht was taking Die Linke down a more closed borders, in the context of things anti-migrant path... How much did that come to pass, anyone know? Has Die Linkes platform changed much?

Wagenknecht was pretty isolated in their party with this stance. A few weeks ago, she didn't stand for reelection as co-leader of the parliamentary group of Die Linke and was succeeded by a woman called Amira Mohamed Ali. (Yes, that's her real name.)

 

[redsquirrel]

Probably too little too late but the SPD has finally started to come to some type of sense and under most recent leadership is thinking about leaving their coalition with the CDU. Though I suspect that the party is too far gone for any real comeback.

Esken and Walter-Borjans have faced the cameras on a range of prime-time political chatshows since their election on Saturday. Esken carefully avoided saying specifically whether the SPD would make official its threat to withdraw from the government. But she said she hoped the other side would be willing to talk. “It must be clear that there’s a readiness to talk,” she said, adding that it would then be “up to the party base to decide the result”.

Walter-Borjans was more forthright, saying the party had to be ready to walk away. “If the coalition partner takes the attitude to block new tasks, then the decision needs to be that it cannot go on.,” he said.

 

[Idris2002]

The Merk's anointed heir has decided to let the succession go to someone else:

Merkel heir Kramp-Karrenbauer will not run for chancellor – DW – 02/10/2020

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the leader of Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats, will not run for chancellor. She will also step down as party leader.

www.dw.com

AKK was conservative, but not the kind arschloch who would have sold out to the AFD. So this isn't good (yet again).

 

[redsquirrel]

I can't find any tears for AKK (or Merkel)

Whichever way the CDU turns I think the AfD will come out ahead.

 

[Sasaferrato]

That’s a ten minute walk from where I live.

I'll be in Berlin in June for a week, staying at the Rotdorn on the Heerstrasse. It is more or less opposite the S Bahn station.

 

[teqniq]

This looks to be bad news:

 

[Idris2002]

Haven't they been talking about building that damned pipeline since the early '80s?

 

[Pingety Pong]

This looks to be bad news:

T
Not really - Merz would have been a total nightmare, Laschet is seen more as continuation of Merkel (and the AfD hate him which can only be good). I would have preferred Röttgen but to call Laschet a QAnon type conspiracist is totally over the top imo. That Julian Röppke guy works for the Bild, the German equivalent of the Sun, so I wouldn't take anything he says too seriously.

 

[redsquirrel]

So we've got elections in the Netherlands, possible elections in Italy and a (potential) change of leadership in Germany fun 2021 for Europe.

 

[The39thStep]

So we've got elections in the Netherlands, possible elections in Italy and a (potential) change of leadership in Germany fun 2021 for Europe.

Presidential elections in Portugal this month as well. Marcelo de Sousa will walk it , probably the ex Socialist Party candidate next and the polls show an interesting tussle between Bloc Escquerda ( left bloc) and the right wing populist Chega for third and the Communist Party treading water below them despite a reasonable campaign .

 

[otzenpunk]

"QAnon conspiracy type" is nuts. Laschet is a classic, boring conservative. A bit dumb. Catholic, big supporter of the fossile energy industry, against abortion and gay-marriage, "the economy" is more important than anything else (even more important than saving people from the corona virus)… but definitely not leaning to the AfD or going Trump or anything.

 

[hitmouse]

Anyone know much about what's going on with Pistorius and the SPD in Lower Saxony? Just seen this: Niedersächsische Erklärung

Which apparently translates as:

Antifascism cannot be banned! Declaration against the planned ban on anti-fascist groups in Lower Saxony.

On Friday, January 15, 2021, we learned that Boris Pistorius, as Lower Saxony's interior minister, wants to research a ban on anti-fascist groups. Boris Pistorius is reacting to the "Bund deutscher Kriminalbeamter", which calls for a ban on "ANTIFA" in Trumpian fashion.

Unproven claims and misconceptions about alleged organizational structures are once again turning reality upside down: in the past few years, terrifying examples of racist and anti-Semitic assassinations and murders have come to light in Germany. The NSU's series of murders only ended in November 2011 with the self-exposure of the core trio . On October 9, 2019, a racist murdered people at a synagogue and a kebab shop in Halle . And on February 19, 2020, a man murdered ten people in Hanau, also for racist and fascist motives. The stabbing of mayor Henriette Reker in Cologne and the murder of politician Walter Lübcke in Kassel also had racist backgrounds. Both had campaigned for the accommodation of refugees. In the headlines, the image of individual perpetrators is often used. Little is reported about support networks and hardly any reports about the social reasons for racism and ideology of inequality.

News about the right-wing and fascist networks within the German justice system, police departments and military are also played down as isolated cases. Furthermore; nothing was done against the AfD when it pushed the limits of what can be said beyond the limits of humanity.

The survivors of the Buchenwald concentration camp swore when the camp was liberated on April 19, 1945:

“The destruction of Nazism and its roots is our watchword. The building of a new world of peace and freedom is our goal."

They already knew that not only German fascism had to be defeated, but another world had to be fought for. Would the survivors of the Buchenwald concentration camp also be “left-wing extremists” today?

Anyone who equates left and right, as in the horseshoe model, does not defend democracy, but defames and fights against those who fight for a society of solidarity, in which all people can be themselves, together without fear.

In fact, in these times the promotion of and participation in Antifa is more important than ever! A strong civil society is needed that is proudly anti-fascist and that resolutely opposes right-wing ideologies. The work of anti-fascist activists, whose research makes a significant contribution to clearing up right-wing attacks and uncovering right-wing networks is needed now more than ever. Therefore loud protests are needed when attempts are made to deligitimate and criminalize anti-fascism!

We stand together in solidarity and demand: No ban on anti-fascist groups in Lower Saxony!

Anyone know much more about what's going on there?

 

[CH1]

Anyone know much about what's going on with Pistorius and the SPD in Lower Saxony? Just seen this: Niedersächsische Erklärung

Which apparently translates as:

Anyone know much more about what's going on there?

Can't help there, but you might like the exit polls on today's elections






This is from Dautshce Welle.
Might try switching the channel on on TV in case they have a swingometer.
Looks to me that one deciding factor there is the continuing strength of the AfD - near Nazis or UKIP of you prefer.

The German electoral system is proportional with a lower threshold - looks like 5%
So CDU/CSU may be stuck with AfD siphoning off their vote for some years to come - unless there is a new economic miracle after Covid.

 

[redsquirrel]

Final figures for AfD are slightly lower than those exit polls. 1, 2

I don't think these results really suggest a change from the current picture for the federal elections - CDU losing some support, Greens gaining, another coalition this time between the CDU and Greens (and possibly some minor party).

 

[ska invita]

Polls put German Green party in lead five months before election

Six out of 10 polls published in past two weeks put Greens ahead of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union

www.theguardian.com

Does anyone have any up to date insight into the current state of the german greens?

Some insight here, though I think reality would be more complex than this speculation

What a Green German chancellor would mean for Central Europe

If Annalena Baerbock secures the chancellorship in September, she’ll have an opportunity to make Central Europe greener.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[redsquirrel]

Final results are not in but based on exit polls and counted votes it looks likely the CDU have retained control of the Saxony-Arnhalt region government. (in fact they may have increased their vote share). Kind of what was expected.



But AfD finished in 2nd place and despite the liberal attempts to portray this as a disappointing result for them 24% is pretty good. De Linke remained 3rd place ahead of the SDP but they had a pretty big swing against them.

No sign of any Greens gain here really but it isn't their area.

 

[otzenpunk]

Kind of what was expected.

Actually, this clear result wasn't expected at all. Two days before, there was a poll seeing the CDU just 1% ahead of the AfD.


And one week before, they even saw the AfD 1% ahead.

TBF, the INSA institute is widely suspected to regularly overestimate the AfD in its polls slightly—which accidentally seems to correlate with the political opinion of his founder—but the other, more reputable institutes still polled a CDU lead of just about 4–7%. Nonetheless, the "head-to-head race" between CDU and AfD dominated the news on the days before election day.

But in the end, the AfD even dropped down further to 20.x%, enlarging the gap between those two parties to 16%. Many believe, that this strong last minute swing in favour of the CDU was caused by tactical votes from the SPD, Green, Linke camps to prevent the AfD from becoming the strongest party.

There's a big discussion now, if the pollster firms have utterly failed their predictions, and if their unrealistic numbers in the following influenced the election outcome.

 

[redsquirrel]

Ta for the info otzenpunk