German Politics (was Germany: Elections 2017)

[Dogsauce]

Wasn't everything supposed to come tumbling down the first time he got in though? Seem to recall a few posters saying it would be a good thing if he was elected.

And instead, it was a green light for fash and grifters across the world.

To quote Nate Silver(?) there are less guardrails in place this time, and the religious extremists actually have a plan waiting - I guess last time it caught them by surprise and they weren’t ready to hit the ground running. Opponents within the Republican Party have been purged, the judiciary stuffed with right-wing ideologues, and the social media/podcast sphere has dragged the Overton window to where they want it. Voter suppression and gerrymandering will sort the house and senate for them. It’s a long-developed coup.

 

[yield]

Germany: Thuringia lawmakers pick CDU speaker, rejecting AfD
Deutsche Welle 09/28/2024

Thuringia constitutional court rules against AfD after parliamentary chaos

The CDU complained about Treutler's obstruction and then turned to Thuringia's constitutional court. The court ruled against the AfD, paving the way for the CDU to put forward König as its speaker candidate.

The AfD in Thuringia is designated as "extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency. The leader of the AfD in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has also made numerous controversial statements and even criticized Germany's remembrance of the Holocaust.

 

[The39thStep]

I found this to be a readable summary of some of the electoral issues in Germany

Three state elections have backed Germany into a corner

The recent successes of populist parties in Germany’s state elections could signal an imminent shift in Berlin’s policies on climate, immigration, and aid for Ukraine.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[yield]

Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs
FT. 28/10/24 https://archive.ph/fDeD8

Volkswagen plans to shut at least three German plants, axe tens of thousands of jobs and slash pay by 10 per cent, the company’s top employee representative said on Monday.

The restructuring would mark the first closure of domestic plants in the company’s 87-year history and set it up for a battle with powerful unions in Germany, where VW has 300,000 employees. There are 10 plants which are part of the VW’s core brand and could potentially be closed.

Europe’s largest carmaker has warned that radical measures are needed as it faces intense competition in China, slowing sales across other major markets and the need to navigate the costly transition to electric vehicles. It recently issued its second profit warning in three months, blaming a “challenging market environment”.

VW on Monday said it would not comment on “speculation about the confidential talks with [the union] IG Metall and the works council”, adding that the company was at a “crucial point”.

The company’s works council represents VW employees and holds half the seats on the supervisory board.

Daniela Cavallo, the head of VW’s works council, told staff at the company’s main Wolfsburg plant that executives had two days to reverse its plans, as she hinted at future strikes.

The article concentrates on Chinese competition and collapse in demand, rather than the energy price spike caused by the sanctions on Russia.

 

[yield]

German chancellor Olaf Scholz sacks his finance minister
Departure of Christian Lindner marks the end of the country’s unpopular coalition government
FT. 06/11/24

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has sacked his liberal finance minister Christian Lindner, plunging the eurozone’s largest economy into political chaos hours after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

The move, which came during a meeting of senior ministers and party leaders on Wednesday evening, brings the curtain down on a deeply unpopular coalition government that had become a byword for discord and acrimony.

It leaves a void at the heart of Europe just as concern is growing in EU capitals over what a second Trump presidency will mean for transatlantic relations.

The sacking of Lindner is likely to precipitate snap elections more than six months before they were due to be held next September, ushering in a long period of uncertainty that the EU can ill-afford as it braces for a trade war with the US while trying to fend off a growing economic threat from China.

Can see two parties benefiting from snap elections.

 

[countingtozero]

Federal elections in Germany are predicted to take place on February 23rd. Current polls put the CDU (33%) ahead of the AFD (18%). Then come two of the parties currently in government, the SPD (15%) and the Greens (11.5%). The only other party currently slated to surpass the 5% threshold necessary to enter Parliament is Sara Wagenknecht's BSW (6%). Currently both Die Linke and FDP (liberals) look unlikely to hit the required 5% threshold for the Bundestag.

In the German system, voters pick both a constituency MP and a party. If the party fails to reach the 5%, it can still enter Parliament provided its candidates win in three constituencies. This is how Die Linke got in last time out, but it will be tough to pull it off again considering the recent splits/departures. Despite their invreasingly marginal significance, people here might be interested in this interview with one of their new co-chairs:

Die Linke Has to Be a Party for the Working Class

Ines Schwerdtner is the newly elected cochair of German left-wing party Die Linke. In an interview with Jacobin, she explains how she wants to reconnect the party with a working-class base.

jacobin.com

Merz's CDU has dedicated a lot of effort to chasing AFD voters with sharpened rhetoric around migration etc, however the next government is almost certain to be a CDU/SPD coalition, as it is the only one likely to have the numbers. It may be that the public debate will pivot towards economic and social issues over the course of the campaign, but not yet.

The AFD won 'just' 10.5% of the vote in 2021, if their results are anywhere near current polls they will be looking at a major boost. And with that growth will come public money, jobs, opportunities etc. Troubling: how long will they be kept outside of government? Otherwise, the Greens are going to take a drubbing in February. And we'll all get a closer look at the Wagneknecht project...

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Scholz has lost confidence vote, so 23 Feb confirmed for German election: Germany set for snap elections after vote of no confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz – live