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German Politics (was Germany: Elections 2017)

The latest ARD "Sonntagsfrage" Germany-wide poll ("who would you vote for if there was an election on Sunday") shows the AfD as Germanys official opposition now.
A very relevant poll, following the disturbances in Saxony and the political fall-out around Hans-Georg Massen and his subsequent "promotion". Was the head of the Verfassungsschutz: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. He made some very weird comments of denial about the Chemnitz disturbances that were proven to be totally misguided. The SDP call for him to be fired but he was promoted and is now sitting in the Home Office with Seehofer. The whole situation is completely nuts.
Anyway, here are the results:

CDU: 27% (worst poll result since 1997)
AfD: 18%
SPD: 17%
Greens: 15%
Die Linke: 10%
FDP: 9%

@Mods: could you maybe change the title of this thread please to something a bit more generic, like "Germany Politics" or something. It's been a good place for general discussion on politics in Germany but the 2017 election is obvs done now*.
Or should I start a new one?
editor Lazy Llama FridgeMagnet

*highly likely scenario that the current Groko Collapses - then we'd have new elections
 
pocketscience said:
The latest ARD "Sonntagsfrage" Germany-wide poll ("who would you vote for if there was an election on Sunday") shows the AfD as Germanys official opposition now.
A very relevant poll, following the disturbances in Saxony and the political fall-out around Hans-Georg Massen and his subsequent "promotion". Was the head of the Verfassungsschutz: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. He made some very weird comments of denial about the Chemnitz disturbances that were proven to be totally misguided. The SDP call for him to be fired but he was promoted and is now sitting in the Home Office with Seehofer. The whole situation is completely nuts.
Anyway, here are the results:

CDU: 27% (worst poll result since 1997)
AfD: 18%
SPD: 17%
Greens: 15%
Die Linke: 10%
FDP: 9%

@Mods: could you maybe change the title of this thread please to something a bit more generic, like "Germany Politics" or something. It's been a good place for general discussion on politics in Germany but the 2017 election is obvs done now*.
Or should I start a new one?
editor Lazy Llama FridgeMagnet

*highly likely scenario that the current Groko Collapses - then we'd have new elections
Click to expand...
As thread OP I endorse pocketscience's call for thread title change. editor Lazy Llama FridgeMagnet
 
Die Linke split? Reinventing the Anti-Immigrant Wheel | Richard Seymour on Patreon

"The new German left coalition, Aufstehen, aims to break the morbid consensus of perpetual ‘grand coalition’. Unsurprisingly Wolfgang Streeck, one of the few sociologists who would think to ask the question How Will Capitalism End?, is one of its partisans, making the case for the coalition in a provocative long-form article for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. A long-time supporter of Die Linke, he sees in the emerging coalition the chance to realign the left on the basis of an orientation to power.

If the ‘realists’ of Die Linke coalesce with the left-wing of social democracy, they could legitimately aim to govern. They could break the deflationary fiscal regime, end the taboo on taxing corporations and the rich, end debt rules that prevent municipalities from writing off their debts and the government from credit-financing infrastructure, address class and regional inequalities, and abandon a decrepit US-aligned foreign policy of propping up some corrupt governments and bombing others. This is an agenda that most on the Left would support.

So why is there a need for a new coalition? Die Linke is surely the one German party that has consistently supported policies like this. What would yet another realignment achieve beyond a further step down the road to a fractal Left? What, given the ambition of Streeck’s agenda, is there to be ‘realists’ about? What is the issue over which there is such “moralising away of fundamental questions” that one needs a new Left?

The issue, at least for the ‘realists’, is immigration. Specifically, it is Die Linke’s commitment to open borders, and its repudiation of former leader Sahra Wagenknecht for dabbling in anti-refugee rhetoric. The ‘realists’ are the Wagenknecht wing, the ‘sectarians’ are the delegates who voted against her. Unable to win the argument in Die Linke, the ‘realists’ are betting on a new political vehicle. This is the aspect of Streeck’s case that I want to comment on. Or rather, because he submerges the argument in the general rhetorical sweep of his recent Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung article, this is the part I want to expand on."​
 
What are the German greens like these days? I got the impression a couple of decades back that they were a bit more radical/street level than the UK guardianista types (in line with the country having a much larger environmental activist base), is that still the case? 15% is a fair sized chunk of the electorate. Are they part of a ‘left’ block or more liberal/centrist inclined? Stronger in former West or East or broadly supported?
 
Dogsauce said:
What are the German greens like these days? I got the impression a couple of decades back that they were a bit more radical/street level than the UK guardianista types (in line with the country having a much larger environmental activist base), is that still the case? 15% is a fair sized chunk of the electorate. Are they part of a ‘left’ block or more liberal/centrist inclined? Stronger in former West or East or broadly supported?
Click to expand...
They are now far to the right of UK greens and are nato bombers. The emblematic case of why greens are shit.
 
Another big Landtagswahl today, this time in Hessen (home of Frankfurt).
Again big gains for the Greens and AfD at the expense of the CDU & SPD.
A lot of talk of the government coalition collapsing (SPD being swapped with Greens). Even speculation this is the end of Merkel as leader.

CDU 28% (down from 38%)
SPD 20% (down from 31%)
Greens 20% (up from 11%)
AfD 13%, (up from 4.1%)
FDP 7% (up from 5%)
Die Linke 6.6% (up from 5.2%)

The ARD has determined the preliminary exit polls. The SPD has lost the most voters to the Greens (101,000). The CDU has lost most supporters to the AfD (94,000), closely followed by the Greens (92,000)
Click to expand...
 
Merkel's said she won't be standing for the next elections.
The only surprise really is that her party will allow her to delay it for that long. But then again, that's what she does - kick everything in the long grass.
Obviously the German right-wingers are licking their lips and Macrons plans for EU reform will stagnate.

It's weird how German internal politics have stood still over the last 2 years. Actually, since A50 was triggered. I do wonder if there's some intention in it. The German economy needs no adjustments (perhaps with the exception of the Diesel emissions scandal which is going around in circles) as the EMU keeps it running as is. Then with Selmeyr moving into a key EU position and Weber looking to follow, they could almost shut up shop in Berlin and run things from Brussels. Maybe now is the time to sell a federal Europe to Germany?
 
Good half hour radio documentary focusing on social political conditions and attitudes in East Germany post unification.
The lack of unification is prominent
BBC Radio 4 - The Wolves Are Coming Back
ETA: amongst things highlighted about east germany: an ageing population with many young people having moved, a majority male population with some towns having 3 to 1 men to women, a sense of alienation from work and social life after dramatic switch from socialist to capitalist system, west germans bossing it over the east, owning all the property etc.... lots and lots of factors.
 
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Fuck AKK and Merkel.

Caught an illustrative comment re EU from her acceptance speech on C4 news yesterday - "we want external security and internal freedom of movement"

(Quoted from memory so exact phrasing might be wrong but sentiment is correct - I did try and find a link with it in writing but had no luck)
 
redsquirrel said:
Fuck AKK and Merkel.

Caught an illustrative comment re EU from her acceptance speech on C4 news yesterday - "we want external security and internal freedom of movement"

(Quoted from memory so exact phrasing might be wrong but sentiment is correct - I did try and find a link with it in writing but had no luck)
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Considering most posters here wouldn’t be huge fans of the CDU, what’s the point of a comment like this apart from shrill virtue signalling ? Nobody voiced a strong endorsement of Kramp-Karrenbauer, just relief that a far worse asshole like that racist cunt Merz now won’t stand a chance to be chancellor. And the worry that a centrist CDU also may mean more votes for the AFD.
 
Reno said:
Considering most posters here wouldn’t be huge fans of the CDU, what’s the point of a comment like this apart from shrill virtue signalling ? Nobody voiced a strong endorsement of Kramp-Karrenbauer, just relief that a far worse asshole like that racist cunt Merz now won’t stand a chance to be chancellor. And the worry that a centrist CDU also may mean more votes for the AFD.
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The liberal argument, both in general and on U75, has been that the EU, and Merkel as it's champion, is the friend of immigrants, and that those that criticise the EU are the racists. This is despite the policies of the EU directly leading to the deaths of thousands of immigrants and the suffering of hundreds of thousands (millions?) more.
And if you think attacking those policies is virtue signalling - well quite frankly get stuffed. It's not virtue signalling to post the privatisation of public services or the bedroom tax (policies that have far less support on U75 than the EU) are immoral. The celebrations of Thatchers death, both no U75 and in real life, weren't virtue signalling. Sometimes cunts just need to be called cunts.

But beyond that liberal lesser evilism has not just been utterly useless it's proved itself actually counterproductive. Two years ago some U75 posters were arguing for a vote for Macron in order to "oppose" the FN. Well how's that worked out? Have the far-right in been set back, have they hell as like. I want to see an alternative society been built, that means not only rejecting the politics of the hard right but also the politics of "centrism" that has directly empowered the AfD and co.
 
redsquirrel said:
The liberal argument, both in general and on U75, has been that the EU, and Merkel as it's champion, is the friend of immigrants, and that those that criticise the EU are the racists. This is despite the policies of the EU directly leading to the deaths of thousands of immigrants and the suffering of hundreds of thousands (millions?) more.
And if you think attacking those policies is virtue signalling - well quite frankly get stuffed. It's not virtue signalling to post the privatisation of public services or the bedroom tax (policies that have far less support on U75 than the EU) are immoral. The celebrations of Thatchers death, both no U75 and in real life, weren't virtue signalling. Sometimes cunts just need to be called cunts.

But beyond that liberal lesser evilism has not just been utterly useless it's proved itself actually counterproductive. Two years ago some U75 posters were arguing for a vote for Macron in order to "oppose" the FN. Well how's that worked out? Have the far-right in been set back, have they hell as like. I want to see an alternative society been built, that means not only rejecting the politics of the hard right but also the politics of "centrism" that has directly empowered the AfD and co.
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The politics of denunciation and admonition ("please do better") is an import from the United States that has already failed, and failed completely, over there.

And I don't remember anyone arguing to vote for Macron on here: and your declaration of desire for an alternative society makes you preferable to the centrists who think the ideal society is already here, but it's exactly the kind of virtue-signalling Reno refers to above.
 
Idris2002 said:
Will the CDU see those guys and their right-wing followers in the rank-and-file defect to the AFD?
Click to expand...

No, probably not. The AfD has moved so far into open right-wing extremism that it's totally no alternative (any longer) for real conservatives. And those who don't care probably defected long ago.

The CDU (and their Bundestag faction together with their sister party CSU) might be sliding into an era of relative instability, though. Merkel was able to unite her party under her ruling for almost 20 years by successfully holding onto governmental power. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will have to prove that she's able to continue that. Losing a couple of future elections might get her into trouble quite quickly, especially because her victory was quite close and the majority of the CSU probably would have preferred either Merz or Spahn or both. I expect Merkel to transfer the chancellorship in mid-term, though, probably second half of 2019, so Kramp-Karrenbauer won't have to win the next general elections on her own.

Reno said:
just relief that a far worse asshole like that racist cunt Merz now won’t stand a chance to be chancellor. And the worry that a centrist CDU also may mean more votes for the AFD.
Click to expand...

I probably wouldn't call Merz a racist, though. He's rather a corporate shill, neocon, part of the "global elite" and a strong supporter of the "trans-atlantic friendship". The populist candidate was Jens Spahn, who dropped out of the race after the first election round. Merz wasn't actively into politics for the last 15 years or so, after he was marginalized by Merkel, and spent his time with jobs as executive and supervisory board member of various really unappealing big corporations. After Merkel declared her withdrawal, the BILD tabloid released his surprise candidacy within less than an hour and he was backed by lobbyists of all kind, especially from the financial industry, and was widely considered as favourite in this dispute, although almost all polls showed Kramp-Karrenbauer stronger. He probably lost the election finally by giving a couple of interviews in Marie Antoinette style, where he amongst other things called himself part of the middle-class although being a millionaire and owning two private jets, or as active chairman of one of the biggest global investment corporations proposed to nullify taxes on company shares when used as part of pension schemes.

In fact, I don't really think the AfD is better off with Kramp-Karrenbauer as opponent than Merz. Of course, it's pretty easy for the "Merkel must go" mob with Pegida and the like to just declare Kramp-Karrenbauer as "Merkel 2" and continue right away, but Merz as hardcore capitalist and "global elitist" would have been at least as easy a target, probably even easier. Additionally it would have been nearly impossible for the social-democrats to sustain the grand coalition with Merz as their new partner, without falling under 10% within weeks. Again, "best" option for "winning back AfD voters"—if you buy into the strategy of getting them back by partly embracing AfD policy (which I don't)—would have been Spahn, but this is the strategy the CSU already tried for the Bavarian state elections and failed miserably.
 
Idris2002 said:
And I don't remember anyone arguing to vote for Macron on here:
French Presidential election 2017
Click to expand...
A number of posters specifically called for a vote for Macron, or Fillion for that matter, in order to "keep Le Pen out". And Lesser evilism has been floated as a not merely a tactic but a moral duty on a number of other threads.

Idris2002 said:
The politics of denunciation and admonition ("please do better") is an import from the United States that has already failed, and failed completely, over there.
....and your declaration of desire for an alternative society makes you preferable to the centrists who think the ideal society is already here, but it's exactly the kind of virtue-signalling Reno refers to above.
Click to expand...
Please tell me you are not calling criticisms of/attacks on by socialists Clinton/Obama or Macron/the British LP/the SPD/the EU virtue signalling? Are you really arguing for lesser evilism?
 
Germany’s Hidden Crisis by Oliver Nachtwey review – social decline in the heart of Europe
21/12/18
When did it all go wrong? Nachtwey goes back to 15 August 1971, when Richard Nixon buried the postwar order by taking the US off the gold standard. This was the day, Nachtwey argues, that neoliberalism was born. In the same year, Nixon had said: “We are all Keynesians now!” but one corollary of what became known as the Nixon Shock was to internationally integrate markets, thereby making national policies of Keynesian economic demand management that had characterised the golden years of postwar prosperity ineffective.
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He calls the Nixon Shock the revolt of capital, rather like the student revolts of three years earlier, but much, much more successful. The revolt of capital co-opted even social democrat chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who becomes the villain of the piece with his Agenda 2010 policy statement ushering in Germany’s greatest postwar reduction in welfare services.
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The globalisation and deregulation of markets that followed the Nixon shock helped nations such as Britain, which thrived in the wild west of the financial deregulation, and opened new markets for German exports. But, the book argues, it also destroyed the socially democratic egalitarian Germany of widespread collective bargaining and welfare state provision prized by left-leaning intellectuals such as Jürgen Habermas.
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But Nachtwey also identifies his eminent predecessor at the Frankfurt School of Social Research, the doyen of 60s radicals Herbert Marcuse as partly responsible for the crisis. In Marcuse’s countercultural hit One-Dimensional Man, he emphasised what Nachtwey calls artistic critique – stressing autonomy, self-determination and individual responsibility in preference to social solidarity and obeisance to straight society’s spirit-crushing rules.
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“The artistic critique thereby became an important source of neoliberal collusion,” Nachtwey argues. One corollary of this, he contends, is that today only 29% of west German and 15% of east German employees work for firms that have both collective bargaining and workers’ councils – twin facets of the country’s employment postwar norms. Marcuse the neo-Marxist thus helped facilitate in Germany something akin to what anti-Marxist Margaret Thatcher did to Britain, namely, as she put it, “to change the heart and soul”.
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yield said:
Germany’s Hidden Crisis by Oliver Nachtwey review – social decline in the heart of Europe
21/12/18
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Some shocking stats in there:
almost one in four of its workers is paid less than the €9.30 (£8.40) minimum wage, many requiring state support.
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... One corollary of this, he contends, is that today only 29% of west German and 15% of east German employees work for firms that have both collective bargaining and workers’ councils.
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Germany mulls introducing 'mosque tax' for Muslims
26.12.2018
Lawmakers from Germany's grand coalition government said on Wednesday that they were considering introducing a "mosque tax" for German Muslims, similar to the church taxes that German Christians pay.

Thorsten Frei, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) told Die Welt daily that a mosque tax was "an important step" that would allow "Islam in Germany to emancipate itself from foreign states."

In Germany, church taxes are collected from practicing Catholics and Protestants in order to fund church activities. They are collected by the state and then transferred to religious authorities.
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"Islam in Germany to emancipate itself from foreign states." The enemy within?
 
yield said:
Germany mulls introducing 'mosque tax' for Muslims
26.12.2018

"Islam in Germany to emancipate itself from foreign states." The enemy within?
Click to expand...

I think it’s crap that you have to opt out of compulsory church tax in Germany, rather than to opt in as its collected by the state. But I don’t think it’s wrong for Germany to cultivate a type of Islam which speaks to communities here and which is independent from more or increasingly conservative Muslim countries.
 
Reno said:
I think it’s crap that you have to opt out of compulsory church tax in Germany, rather than to opt in as its collected by the state.

But I don’t think it’s wrong for Germany to cultivate a type of Islam which speaks to communities here and which is independent from more or increasingly conservative Muslim countries.
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Church tithes seem so archaic but I see your point.
 
Reno said:
I think it’s crap that you have to opt out of compulsory church tax in Germany, rather than to opt in as its collected by the state. But I don’t think it’s wrong for Germany to cultivate a type of Islam which speaks to communities here and which is independent from more or increasingly conservative Muslim countries.
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There is an analogous situation here with Sharia councils. It made sense at one time for Jews to be allowed their own courts for certain things as the main courts were overtly Christian in nature. Of course the right thing to do now is to dereligionise everything and abolish the Jewish courts. But what they've done instead is extend the idea to bring Sharia councils into the judicial system.

Church tax isn't some token 1 or 2 %, though, is it? It's 8 or 9%. Blimey.
 
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