German Politics (was Germany: Elections 2017)

[redsquirrel]

But from a UK perspective I guess if Labour were in a position to form an alternative government, by working with say the LibDems, SNP and Plaid they should probably have a go rather than go into coalition with the Tories. From what little I have read, the equivalent option in Germany hasn't even been discussed?

I don't the comparison really stands on any level: (1) The political system is different in the UK to Germany meaning coalitions are less common/accepted here, (2) I think it's highly unlikely that Labour would even try to form a coalition with three other parties, they'd be far more likely to try a govern as a minority government (as they said they would after 2017 if they had the chance), (3) besides both being scum I don't think the LDs are equivalent to the FDP, nor DL to the SNP.

EDIT: If the FDP and Greens couldn't come to a agreement under a CDU-led coalition, why would they be able to under a SDP one? And how could DL form a coalition with the FDP when red-red-green coalitions have been hard to form and/or unstable?

 

[Slo-mo]

I don't the comparison really stands on any level: (1) The political system is different in the UK to Germany meaning coalitions are less common/accepted anyway, (2) I think it's highly unlikely that Labour would even try to form a coalition with three other parties, they'd be far more likely to try a govern as a minority government (as they said they would after 2017 if they had the chance), (3) besides both being scum I don't think the LDs are equivalent to the FDP, nor DL to the SNP.

Thanks. That makes it a bit clearer!

I wasn't trying to make a direct comparison between SNP and DL btw. Just picking three parties out of thin air really.

 

[otzenpunk]

However I've just got one question that someone on here might know the answer to. Why don't the SPD, Greens, FDP and Die Linke form a coalition?

Are Die Linke considered too left wing for the FDP? Are the FDP considered too right wing for Die Linke?

Yes, kind of. The FDP is a radical free market party and campaigns heavily for privatization, small government and tax reductions for rich people, which is their main focus predominating classic liberal topics like civil rights. Die Linke on the other hand is a straight socialist party. There's just no base at all in terms of economic policy for these two parties to work together in any form.

Apart from that, the relation between Die Linke and the Greens and SPD isn't without problems as well. This is partly based on historical reasons. While Die Linke is successor of the former Eastern German state party SED, both the western Greens and the SPD back in the days joined with parts of the civil rights movement of the disintegrating GDR. Then this former SED, renamed as PDS after the German reunion, joined with a movement of SPD renegades under the leadership of former SPD and later Die Linke chaiman Oskar Lafontaine, after Gerhard Schröder forced the SPD to a strict Blairist course, and they formed Die Linke. So there's a lot of personal hostilities ongoing especially between left-wing SPD members and those "traitors" who left them out in the rain.

Also, Die Linke embraces some radical Anti-NATO, anti-western and communist activists, which is a reason for SPD and Greens to state, that they won't find common ground with Die Linke on foreign policy. At least, this was the main official reason why the SPD joined into the last "grand coalition" with the CDU, although they would have had a majority of seats together with Greens and Die Linke at the time.

 

[Slo-mo]

Thank you for that very clear explanation. Really does explain things better.

 

[redsquirrel]

SDP youth wing vote on grand coalition today.

Schulz, who was initially vehemently opposed to a coalition, has appealed to members to recognise their sense of historic responsibility, recalling how the SPD was the only party to vote against the law that enabled the Hitler dictatorship in 1933. Now, he said, the party has the responsibility to revive social democracy by offering a fresh vision for Germany and Europe from within government.

Because nothing says social democracy like pimping yourselves out to form a neo-liberal coalition.

 

[mather]

SDP youth wing vote on grand coalition today.
Because nothing says social democracy like pimping yourselves out to form a neo-liberal coalition.

Like all the European social democratic parties, the SPD is on the way out as a serious political force and looks set to join the French 'Socialist' Party and PASOK in political irrelevancy. Hopefully the German Greens are also heading in the same direction.

 

[redsquirrel]

Schultz get's over the line with 56%

With so many casting their vote against their leader’s recommendation, a mere show of hands did not yield a visible majority. After a nervous delay, an official count showed that 362 delegates out of 642 had endorsed the party’s official line.

 

[pocketscience]

Schulz really has put the final nail in the SPD coffin.
They only got 20.5% in the last election so this probably leaves the rightwing AfD as the 2nd party in Germany now.
Will be interesting to see where the 44% who defied the party line go now. Die Linke? form a new Momentum like party?

 

[Idris2002]

Schulz really has put the final nail in the SPD coffin.
They only got 20.5% in the last election so this probably leaves the rightwing AfD as the 2nd party in Germany now.
Will be interesting to see where the 44% who defied the party line go now. Die Linke? form a new Momentum like party?

For a lot of people, Die Linke will always be tainted by their roots in the GDR.

So geht's die Sozialistische gang. . .

 

[redsquirrel]

Schulz really has put the final nail in the SPD coffin.
They only got 20.5% in the last election so this probably leaves the rightwing AfD as the 2nd party in Germany now.
Will be interesting to see where the 44% who defied the party line go now. Die Linke? form a new Momentum like party?

What's really mad is that they are so chained to neo-liberalism that they can't even break with it to save themselves.

 

[mather]

What's really mad is that they are so chained to neo-liberalism that they can't even break with it to save themselves.

Which is why they deserve to lose support and become politically irrelevant, good riddance to them.

 

[mather]

For a lot of people, Die Linke will always be tainted by their roots in the GDR.

So geht's die Sozialistische gang. . .

Less so as time passes. The GDR is history whereas the crap neo-liberal politics of the SPD affect people and their job/living standards in the here and now and that is what is driving people away from the SPD. If Die Linke fails to benefit from this then it would be down to other factors related to todays politics rather than old history.

 

[pocketscience]

Its a double whammy for the AfD.
Schulz has show himself to be so politically incompetent since taking over the SPD that a lot of observers are questioning how the fuck he managed to hold down his job in the Eu so long and advance to be president of the European Parliament.
Hardy a ringing endorsement for the quality of representatives in Brussels.
More fuel for euroscepticism in germany

 

[pocketscience]

Less so as time passes. The GDR is history whereas the crap neo-liberal politics of the SPD affect people and their job/living standards in the here and now and that is what is driving people away from the SPD. If Die Linke fails to benefit from this then it would be down to other factors related to todays politics rather than old history.

I'm not so sure tbf. I wouldn't underestimate the distrust of Die Linke in the west just because of their associations with the DDR.
They really struggle to get seats in western Länder outside of Lafountaines Saarbrücken (with the exception of one in Bremen I think).
The swing of their vote is something like 20% in the East vs about 5% in the West.

 

[pocketscience]

So the Conservatives (CDU & CSU) have reached a preliminary agreement with the SPD and both have signed a final coalition contract where ministerial posts have been divvied up and terms set.
Apparently there's been some sort of deal where Schulz becomes Foreign Minister but will make way for his current deputy Andrea Nahles (center left) to take over as the SPD party leader.
The SPD plans to have a members vote (400k) by the end of the month.

 

[pocketscience]

German politics are in total disarray.
Within a week of handing the leaders post to his deputy so he could take up the foreign minister position, Schulz has now given up an that too - after the incumbent Sigmar Gabriel gave him a public bollocking for constantly going back on his word. So now he's left empty handed and completely out of the picture.
I can't see him ever being able to show his face after the political ineptitude he's shown over the last couple of months. But then again, there's always Brussels I suppose.
Opinion polls are showing that SPD voters want the grand coalition but I haven't seen any specific to the members who will actually be doing the voting.
oh, and Merkel's also coming under fire from her own party for being associated with this shambles.
If the SPD members vote against the grand coalition, I assume it's back to a general election.

 

[Mordi]

German politics are in total disarray.
Within a week of handing the leaders post to his deputy so he could take up the foreign minister position, Schulz has now given up an that too - after the incumbent Sigmar Gabriel gave him a public bollocking for constantly going back on his word. So now he's left empty handed and completely out of the picture.
I can't see him ever being able to show his face after the political ineptitude he's shown over the last couple of months. But then again, there's always Brussels I suppose.
Opinion polls are showing that SPD voters want the grand coalition but I haven't seen any specific to the members who will actually be doing the voting.
oh, and Merkel's also coming under fire from her own party for being associated with this shambles.
If the SPD members vote against the grand coalition, I assume it's back to a general election.

Any idea what the likely outcome would be in an another election? Does the AfD vote look stable?

 

[pocketscience]

Any idea what the likely outcome would be in an another election? Does the AfD vote look stable?

The opinion polls (whatever they're worth now days) aren't showing any major changes for any party, from the results of the last election. So yes, they're at the very least stable.
It will be interesting to see the outcome of the complete capitulation of Schultz within his own party over the last week.
There could be a slight swing back to SPD or it could push more voters to AfD.
The main polls are published on Sundays so there should be some clearer indicators by next weekend.

 

[butchersapron]

Germany's far-right AfD overtakes Social Democrats in poll

A poll published on behalf of German tabloid Bild has found that 16 percent of voters would choose the right-wing, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), half-a-percent more than those who would vote for the Social Democrats (SPD).

The figures released by the INSA polling institute show the SPD in free fall. Germany's oldest political party has seen its polling figures plummet even further since it garnered just 20.5 percent of the vote in September's federal election, its worst result in the post-war era.

 

[redsquirrel]

And SDP still thinking about going into coalition, madness.

 

[otzenpunk]

Germany's far-right AfD overtakes Social Democrats in poll
A poll published on behalf of German tabloid Bild has found that 16 percent of voters would choose the right-wing, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), half-a-percent more than those who would vote for the Social Democrats (SPD).

While I certainly wouldn't suggest this poll is completely fake, the founder and CEO of this INSA institute is known to have good relations to the AfD, and his polling institute regularly shows the AfD at least one percent better than every other institute does. Should at least be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[pocketscience]

While I certainly wouldn't suggest this poll is completely fake, the founder and CEO of this INSA institute is known to have good relations to the AfD, and his polling institute regularly shows the AfD at least one percent better than every other institute does. Should at least be taken with a grain of salt.

tbf there were similar warnings about INSA when their results showed the AFD overtaking the FDP to become the 3rd party before the elections last year..
Not saying there are political interests behind Emnid or Forsa but judging by the trajectories in previous polls and the way the SDP are going about things, I find the results in this INSA poll comprehensible.

 

[otzenpunk]

tbf there were similar warnings about INSA when their results showed the AFD overtaking the FDP to become the 3rd party before the elections last year..

Well, every major polling institute saw the AfD higher than the FDP before the last federal elections. And that INSA did it first, doesn't mean that would also have been the case at this point in time. And if you not only look at the one last federal election, but at state elections as well, there are cases where INSA overestimated the AfD by comparably quite a lot. So yes, these numbers are not totally incomprehensible, certainly within the margin of error, but I personally give a shit on INSA numbers and wait on the upcoming results of Infratest Dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and the other ones, which shouldn't take too long.

Apart from that, polls are also news, and they do influence people and may become self-fulfilling prophecies. And that may be part of some INSA agenda.

 

[otzenpunk]

JFTR: Current Infratest Dimap poll: SPD 17%, AfD 14%. SPD even up and AfD down 1% since last week. Of course, nobody's able to know which one does reflect reality better.

Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl

 

[stethoscope]

Tomorrow we'll found out whether a coalition deal is going to happen...
The young activists hoping to derail Germany's coalition deal

Nearly six months on, Germany is still talking about September's general election.

They are still waiting for the stable government Angela Merkel promised the country.

This coalition - with her old SPD allies - is her only realistic shot now at forming a government. A minority government is possible but it's considered unsustainable.

Mrs Merkel failed to build an alliance with the Green and liberal Free Democrat parties. If this deal falls apart, the spectre of fresh elections looms.

Mrs Merkel's future, it's said, now lies now in the hands of a chap called Kevin.

The 28-year-old leader of the SPD's youth wing, Kevin Kuehnert, has passionately led an internal revolt against the proposed new coalition.

His supporters believe that their last term in Mrs Merkel's shadow damaged the party and that to reprise the role of wing man to her CDU/CSU union would finish it altogether.

The SPD leadership is in favour of the deal. It emphasises concessions won during coalition negotiations, such as the party claiming finance minister - a key post.

But the party's members are horribly divided and all 460,000 of them get the final say.

 

[stethoscope]

Germany parties strike coalition deal

Bollocks, yet another term of centrist coalition with Merkel at the helm.

 

[redsquirrel]

Hah, slime hoping a few PR'd "fight" stunts help to distinguish them from the CDU, just like the LDs with the Tories. Hopefully they'll end up the same way as the yellow Tories.

 

[DotCommunist]

this will accelerate the decline of germanies social democrat party and the likely winner out that in the longer term will be AfD- is that right?

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Italy is further down the road to where this might potentially lead. We will see in the next day or so just how disastrous and dangerous this trajectory is getting.

 

[otzenpunk]

This is going around on Twitter at the moment. Pretty accurate overview over German political parties…