Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

[nick h.]

Are there any figures showing how much lifespans were shortened? 3,500 early deaths out of 5m people in the contaminated areas might not look that bad compared to, say, people in the contaminated area who lose five years because of smoking. But if most of those 3,500 are people dying in childhood then it's a many, many, many times worse.

 

[elbows]

They keep upgrading the picture of how badly the tsunami affected the nuclear plant. They have also released some very brief footage showing a little of the tsunami event at the plant.

 

[elbows]

Buried in this story which tells of the progress of leak prevention, moving the very bad water from reactor 2, a plan to use remote helicopters for filming soon, there is something interesting about the subcontractors:

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04/84291.html

In a sign that workers remain worried about high levels of radiation at the plant, companies dispatching workers to the troubled nuclear plant have refused to adopt the government's provisionally raised limit on radiation exposure for nuclear plant workers dealing with a crisis.

The ceiling was lifted from 100 millisieverts to 250 millisieverts in an announcement made on March 15 by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare to enable workers at the plant to engage in longer hours of assignments and to secure more workers, but officials of the companies other than TEPCO say those at the site would not accept the elevated limit.

I dont blame them!

A minister went to visit:

A Cabinet minister visited the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Fukushima Prefecture on the same day for the first time since it was rocked by explosions and began emitting radioactive materials shortly after the March 11 quake and tsunami.

During his roughly 45-minute stay, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda encouraged workers manning an operational center on the premises and surveyed damaged reactors from inside a bus.

Before his visit to the plant, Kaieda, whose ministry promotes and regulates the nuclear power industry, told reporters the situation was far from being brought under control and expressed his resolve to contain it as soon as possible.

Human error on ugly display at another nuclear plant:

Also Saturday, Tohoku Electric Power Co. said a human mistake apparently caused the only functioning diesel generator at the Higashidori nuclear power plant in Aomori Prefecture to leak fuel, forcing the utility to stop it at one point following the 7.1-magnitude aftershock late Thursday of the March 11 deadly earthquake.

The operational failure prompted the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency earlier in the day to call on the nation's power suppliers to have at least two backup diesel generators on standby even when a reactor is in a stable condition called ''cold shutdown'' or undergoing fuel replacement.

The agency's previous rule that required the suppliers to have just one diesel generator on standby in situations like the cold shutdown was ''not enough, I must say,'' agency spokesman Hidehiko Nishiyama said at a news conference.

Hidehiko Nishiyama also made the right sort of noises when discussing the mistakes made at Fukushima:

''We had said all along that (nuclear power) was absolutely secure thanks to its multiple layers of protection and five-layer barriers, and I believed this, but we brought this situation onto ourselves.''

''We need to review everything to ensure safety, regardless of precedents,'' he said.

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Cheers

Report on what happened at some of the other nuclear facilities in Japan as a result of yesterdays quake:

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04/84063.html



More info in the full story, sounds like some of the locations got grid power back overnight.

A video of someone driving round inside the exclusion zone:

All those poor abandoned dogs. If there's no checkpoints, how come the owners are saying they're not allowed back to collect their pets?

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Can't be arsed to read this thread as there's too many numbers and technical data that goes right above my head

Anyway, are they going to start concreting it in then? Found this picture of a Russian Concrete Pump being loaded onto an Antonov going to Japan. Or is it just on standby?

 

[robbo180265]

Can't be arsed to read this thread as there's too many numbers and technical data that goes right above my head

Anyway, are they going to start concreting it in then? Found this picture of a Russian Concrete Pump being loaded onto an Antonov going to Japan. Or is it just on standby?

As I understand it - the pumps are American (one was used to pump concrete into the Chernobyl reactor) and they can pump water as well as concrete. So it might be that they are planning to remove the radioactive water into storage via these pumps or maybe cool the reactors.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/04/07/japan.concrete.pumps/

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

As I understand it - the pumps are American (one was used to pump concrete into the Chernobyl reactor) and they can pump water as well as concrete. So it might be that they are planning to remove the radioactive water into storage via these pumps or maybe cool the reactors.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/04/07/japan.concrete.pumps/

You're quite correct. The pumps were in America but being loaded onto Russian cargo carrier. I got mixed up ('scuse the pun)

 

[robbo180265]

You're quite correct. The pumps were in America but being loaded onto Russian cargo carrier. I got mixed up ('scuse the pun)

 

[Miss Caphat]

lol @ 'Putzmeister'

 

[elbows]

This is apparently the model of unmanned thing they have been using this weekend to capture images:

Its a Honeywell T-Hawk.

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

This is apparently the model of unmanned thing they have been using this weekend to capture images:

Its a Honeywell T-Hawk.

It's rude to stare

Providing real-time situation awareness that protects lives and property in critical situations.

Featuring vertical takeoff and landing, the lightweight and portable
T-Hawk is a combat-proven unmanned micro air vehicle that can be quickly deployed. T-Hawk is easy to assemble and can be airborne within 10 minutes. It is simple to fly with minimal training. With unique hover and stare capability, T-Hawk supports advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) with real time video documentation.

Day or night, the all-weather T-Hawk increases situational awareness.

Wonder how long before the British police get some?

 

[stuff_it]

This is apparently the model of unmanned thing they have been using this weekend to capture images:

Its a Honeywell T-Hawk.

Now that would just freak me right out if I saw it when high.

 

[elbows]

It is a tad on the creepy side. Apparently they have also been using remote digger/pickup truck combo to deal with the highly radioactive debris that has been found in a couple of locations on site, such as to the west of reactor 3 and between reactor buildings 2 & 3.

Looking at sites such as Kyodo news, I think a government press conference has just happened where they talked about expanding the evacuation zone in certain places, I will await further details before linking to any stories.

 

[elbows]

Some photos of the remote controlled equipment removing debris.

http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2011/04/20110411003/20110411003-6.pdf

 

[robbo180265]

Latest news from the Beeb - at last they are extending the exclusion zone, also it seems there has been another quake in the Fukushima area

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13032122

 

[xes]

I can't conform this, maybe someone with a TV nearby can. According to a post on another forum, TEPCO have lost power to reactor 1,2 and 3. It's scrolling on the ticker on CNN apparently. (like I say I can't confirm this)

 

[elbows]

From now on, it will issue an evacuation order if there is a possibility of residents receiving a dose of 20 millisieverts during the course of a year.
Regarding the evacuation zone expansion:

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04/84604.html

In the event of an emergency, the International Commission on Radiological Protection is recommending also that the highest planned residual dose over one year be in the range of 20 to 100 millisieverts.

The municipalities which will be part of the new evacuation zone include Katsurao, Namie and Iitate, all located in Fukushima Prefecture.

Residents in these municipalities will be expected to move to different areas within one month, Edano said.

 

[elbows]

I can't conform this, maybe someone with a TV nearby can. According to a post on another forum, TEPCO have lost power to reactor 1,2 and 3. It's scrolling on the ticker on CNN apparently. (like I say I can't confirm this)

From what little I have seen of this, they lost power to the site for just under an hour. Given the limited stuff that they are running off electricity at the moment, and how knackered things are already, I wouldnt expect too much harm from a relatively short interruption to power such as this.

 

[elbows]

Here we go, they finally appear ready to admit the full scale of the disaster:

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04/84721.html

The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan released a preliminary calculation Monday saying that the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant had been releasing up to 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour at some point after a massive quake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan on March 11.

The disclosure prompted the government to consider raising the accident's severity level to 7, the worst on an international scale, from the current 5, government sources said. The level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale has only been applied to the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe.

The current provisional evaluation of 5 is at the same level as the Three Mile Island accident in the United States in 1979.

According to an evaluation by the INES, level 7 accidents correspond with a release into the external environment radioactive materials equal to more than tens of thousands terabecquerels of radioactive iodine 131. One terabecquerel equals 1 trillion becquerels.

Haruki Madarame, chairman of the commission, which is a government panel, said it has estimated that the release of 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour continued for several hours.

The commission says the release has since come down to under 1 terabecquerel per hour and said that it is still examining the total amount of radioactive materials released.

The commission also released a preliminary calculation for the cumulative amount of external exposure to radiation, saying it exceeded the yearly limit of 1 millisieverts in areas extending more than 60 kilometers to the northwest of the plant and about 40 km to the south-southwest of the plant.

 

[elbows]

I've already mentioned this article in the Fukushima thread in the science forum, dealing with the matter of internal exposure, but will post a different exert of worthy info here, which sheds some light on the nature of certain messages we have seen from various bodies in the last month:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/11/nuclear-apologists-radiation

In the early days of nuclear power, WHO issued forthright statements on radiation risks such as its 1956 warning: "Genetic heritage is the most precious property for human beings. It determines the lives of our progeny, health and harmonious development of future generations. As experts, we affirm that the health of future generations is threatened by increasing development of the atomic industry and sources of radiation … We also believe that new mutations that occur in humans are harmful to them and their offspring."

After 1959, WHO made no more statements on health and radioactivity. What happened? On 28 May 1959, at the 12th World Health Assembly, WHO drew up an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); clause 12.40 of this agreement says: "Whenever either organisation [the WHO or the IAEA] proposes to initiate a programme or activity on a subject in which the other organisation has or may have a substantial interest, the first party shall consult the other with a view to adjusting the matter by mutual agreement." In other words, the WHO grants the right of prior approval over any research it might undertake or report on to the IAEA – a group that many people, including journalists, think is a neutral watchdog, but which is, in fact, an advocate for the nuclear power industry. The IAEA's founding papers state: "The agency shall seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity through the world."

Now the author has an undisguised agenda but as part of a balanced diet this stuff is good for broad understanding of these issues.

 

[elbows]

NYT take on the wider evacuation:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/world/asia/12japan.html

I dont think the media has got its teeth into the terabecquerel story & associated incident severity rating increase being under consideration yet.

 

[elbows]

More of the same as Kyodo reported earlier, but with less doubt as to whether they are raising the level straight away. I would expect that this will grab the headlines worldwide at some point.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_05.html

Japan to raise Fukushima crisis level to worst
The Japanese government's nuclear safety agency has decided to raise the crisis level of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant accident from 5 to 7, the worst on the international scale.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency made the decision on Monday. It says the damaged facilities have been releasing a massive amount of radioactive substances, which are posing a threat to human health and the environment over a wide area.

The agency used the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, or INES, to gauge the level. The scale was designed by an international group of experts to indicate the significance of nuclear events with ratings of 0 to 7.

On March 18th, one week after the massive quake, the agency declared the Fukushima trouble a level 5 incident, the same as the accident at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979.

Level 7 has formerly only been applied to the Chernobyl accident in the former Soviet Union in 1986 when hundreds of thousands of terabecquerels of radioactive iodine-131 were released into the air. One terabecquerel is one trillion becquerels.

The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.

Officials from the agency and the Nuclear Safety Commission will hold a news conference on Tuesday morning to explain the change of evaluation.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011 05:47 +0900 (JST)

I have been reading the INES guidelines myself. The whole point of the scale is to provide timely information that people can understand without getting into the detail, so upgrading to a level 7 now, a month later, is in some ways rather redundant.

Anyway for those who really wanted to understand how the amount of radioactive shit released might compare to Chernobyl, this is still a large step in that journey of understanding. I havent seen the full detail of the agencies estimations yet, but from what has been discussed it should qualify as a level 7, but the present estimates are certainly not at Chernobyl levels. Not that this is much cause for celebration, as Chernobyl was a very large release indeed and this one is still a seriously large release that warrants the highest level of classification.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Thanks for this.

 

[toblerone3]

This is great information Elbows! Tbh its surprising that this hasn't grabbed more headlines so far. *Goes to check a few sites*

Ah actually since you wrote these posts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13045341 06.14 on the timeline.

 

[elbows]

The BBC are shit at covering this story. From the article you mention:

The decision to raise the threat level was made after radiation of up to 630,000 terabequerels per hour had been estimated at the stricken plant for several hours.

No BBC, in no way is the 630,000 terabequerels figure 'per hour'. 630,000 terabequerels is the estimated TOTAL release, the high hourly releases have actually been estimated around the 10,000 per hour mark.

 

[elbows]

Early TEPCO dithering described:

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110411004567.htm

1:30 a.m. on March 12, Kan, Kaieda and Madarame gathered at the crisis management center in the basement of the Prime Minister's Office.

The three urged TEPCO officials to vent the steam as soon as possible. But TEPCO officials said there was no way of opening the valves because there was no power supply.

Exasperated, Kaieda called the utility's head office in Tokyo and the accident headquarters at the plant every hour, pressuring them to open the valves immediately.

TEPCO workers tried to open the valves by manually overriding the automatic system, but struggled to make progress because they had to work in darkness.

At dawn, pressure inside the No. 1 reactor was more than twice the designed maximum.

Eventually, at 6:50 a.m., the government ordered the utility to open the valves under the Nuclear Reactor Regulation Law.

When Kan visited the accident site shortly after 7 a.m. and found TEPCO had not opened the valves yet, he reprimanded company officials. The officials replied they would like to have another hour to make a decision on what to do.

Kan blew his stack.

"Now's not the time to make such lackadaisical comments!" the prime minister told the TEPCO officials.

Yet even still, the utility spent three more hours discussing the matter before finally opening the valves at 10:17 a.m.

Five hours after that, a hydrogen explosion occurred at the No. 1 reactor, blowing apart its outer building.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

Wow that's incredible.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

Disaster Level raised to maximum.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/j...ity-level-at-fukushima-plant-to-maximum-97833

 

[elbows]

Some brief thoughts on the numbers.

The estimate for Fukushima release so far is 630,000 terabequerels, compared to 5,200,000 for Chernobyl. So thats where the 'ten times less than Chernobyl' so far comes from. However apparently the Fukushima figures only apply to radioactive material that went into the air, not the water. And as there is still some radiation being released, albeit not at anything like the same rate as early on, TEPCO apparently mentioned ina press conference the possibility that the final total could end up as high, or higher, than Chernobyl.

Of course these numbers do not tell the whole story, for they do not indicate where all this radioactive shit ended up. The prevailing wind direction at higher altitudes, and the large ocean to the east of Japan, have limited the extent to which other countries are badly affected by this disaster, and has somewhat limited the size of the affected zone within Japan. But I expect it will take a rather long time to judge quite what effect this stuff will have on the ocean.

 

[elbows]

A small part of the Guardian story on the severity level increase is an expert expressing a different view:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/12/japan-nuclear-crisis-chernobyl-severity-level1

Some experts criticised the move as excessive. "I think raising it to the level of Chernobyl is excessive," said Murray Jennex, associate professor at San Diego State University. "It's nowhere near that level. Chernobyl was terrible – it blew and they had no containment, and they were stuck.

"The [Japanese] containment has been holding, the only thing that hasn't is the fuel pool that caught fire. I don't see those as the same event. If they want to do that, that's fine. I think they're being overly pessimistic."

Now its perfectly true that the details of the disaster are different to Chernobyl. But when a disaster reaches level 5 or above, the judgement on which level it should be mostly comes down to the magnitude of the estimated release. I believe the threshold between a level 6 and a level 7 is around 50,000 terabequerels total release. The Fukushima estimate is way above that, so its a no-brainer that this event qualifies as a level 7. If experts want to argue as to whether the Japanese estimates are far off the mark,then feel free, but to talk about this in unrelated terms, such as the nature of the damage, rather than total release, is not helpful and defeats the entire purpose of having the nuclear disaster scale, which is to provide a clear guide to the public.