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Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

If someone wanted to be really honest about this they could produce a Chernobyl comparison right now. That's the info' we all want. Why isn't it here?

I put it to Elbows to do a very simple Chernobyl comparison for all of us to understand. I suspect that won't happen.

Your notion of what facts are is a bit weird but never mind. If you are so keen on comparisons to Chernobyl, then I really wish you would answer my question about what Chernobyl means to you, what were the simple Chernobyl facts that you would like to see a Fukushima equivalent of?

Chernobyl involved one reactor suffering a very large explosion and some subsequent fires, and a lot of mess with bits of the graphite core lying around the immediate site, and lots of very bad substances went into the air very quickly, and plenty got high in the air so they could spread far. After a few weeks they managed to stop loads of stuff from escaping. In the meantime quite a lot of responders died from radiation sickness, and we saw how quite a large area is still evacuated to this day, and we see that various amounts of radioactive substances ended up in a number of different countries, and had implications for health, farming and food.

Fukushima involved numerous reactors and fuel pools, and is a far more complicated set of events. There is still loads of information missing about the state of some of the reactors and exactly what happened, and we cannot know the whole story because the story is still playing out. The data about contamination in various places seems to suggest that not as much nasty stuff has been released as was the case with Chernobyl, but since stuff is still escaping to this day how can we give a final estimate? There may yet be some twists in the tale of one or more reactors or fuel pools that makes a difference to the story of the contamination. There may be stuff we havent been told yet or that they have not found out yet.

To me Fukushima is worse in terms of the number of different things that went wrong, and how far they may still be away from getting some sort of control of things. And worse because of how Japan is so densely populated in places, and how reliant they are on nuclear, and the other nightmares they are dealing with due to the tsunami. The emergency response to Fukushima may eventually be judged to have been worse than Chernobyl too. A cartoon version of nuclear rescue would certainly have been able to do something to prevent some of these explosions and pool problems happening after power was lost, and we might think that in real life a better job could have been done too, as it does look like they had an opportunity not to lose control of things and didnt act in time, but its a bit early to judge.

So make no mistake, for all my attention to detail and unwillingness to talk about health affects in certain terms, in my book Fukushima is the worst nuclear power incident we have seen, simply because of the number of different things that have gone wrong. But I cant say thats the case if Im just talking about the health affects. I also think it has far more implications for the future than Chernobyl did, because of the number of reactors with similar designs that operate today, the stuff about how earthquake & tsunami risks are judged, our tendency to have been extending life of old reactors, and some rather large implications for storage of spent fuel.

Purely in terms of interesting new revelations about nuclear power that people may not have been aware of before this event, and assuming that they were already aware that things can go wrong and that radiation leaks are very bad indeed, its the issue of how long both the fuel in the reactors and the spent fuel in pools requires careful cooling that Fukushima should be illuminating to people.
 
Unfortunately the containment which prevents Stanley Edwards from polluting this very valuable thread with trolling nonsense is cracked.

Trolling?

I appreciate all I read here. It is not about discussion. Message boards are message boards. U75 is much more. People with good knowledge post openly here. Elbow's pòsts good stuff, but the stuff he/she posts is still clouded in the blurb. That isn't what U75 should be about IMO. I post 'comedy threads' often. Comedy threads without clauses. But, the reason I like U75 so much is that there is actually a wealth of open knowledge here. Elbow's isn't doing the honest bit from where I read. Not on this thread at least.

Elbow's posts here read like someone who wants to understand, but can't. Understandable, because none of can really understand when all the information is being disguised to the point that it isn't information. This is a very big issue. A catastrophe beyond anything recorded previously. We all deserve the truth, but it's not happening.
 
If you have an issue with elbows' posting and feel that it is inappropriate, I might suggest that reporting the posts would be a better option than sitting about disrupting the thread shouting "look at me".
 
The deaths realted to the Chernobyl disaster are estimated to be between 4000 and 250000? No one knows for sure. The birth defects after Chernobyl and the cancers suffered by the children were horrific, and if no one is interested in finding out if we are now in a similar situation is beyond me. Pro nuke bastards don't give a fuck, governments don't give a fuck because of what nuke power provides. I care though and I think we all need to know, it seems to be like trying to find a needle in a hay stack to get some honest no bullshit answers at the moment.

Firstly thanks to you and other for the recent kind words.

Governments give a fuck at least in part because they feel they need nuclear, so they actually cant afford to completely ignore the health affects. They may seek to play down some immediate dangers to prevent panic, and some longterm conclusions may be watered down in order to serve the nuclear agenda, but they still act to some extent.

For example on of the easiest ways to tell that there is a real public health risk is that there is an evacuation area. Now there are some big disagreements about whether its a wide enough area, with many feeling that the Japanese should have widened it given the levels that have sometimes been detected in some locations to the north west of the plant. Well this is something we get to hear about, and quite a bit of data on it is available, and so we should be able to have a fairly good discussion about it. Likewise data has been published that show some occasions where levels in food or water in various places have gone above recommended levels. Just because we'll never get to know the exact number of people whose future illnesses were caused by Fukushima, doesnt mean we shouldnt try to learn as much as we can anyway. Its inevitable that it will take years and there will not be total agreement,but thats true with lots of other health issues and forms of pollution too, and it doesnt stop us from caring or from governments sometimes acting, albeit often too little too late.

The answer to whether we are in a similar 'birth defects and child cancers' situation now really does come down to geography more than anything else, that and timescale, ie when they finally stop the plant emitting much shit. I've said before that the size of the near-permanent evacuation zone will be the thing by which people will be most able to judge for themselves the scale of the Fukushima disaster, without needing any particular scientific understanding of various details. The size of the evacuated zone and the number of quick deaths due to radiation poisoning are as close as we will get to 'simple facts', and in Fukushima we dont know either yet. So far we have 2 workers who were probably killed by the tsunami itself, two more with foot & leg exposure to radioactive water, a third with less exposure to the same, and numerous other workers who have received doses that it would be better to avoid. Given the state of the plant its not possible to say there wont be some rapid deaths, but there may not be, in which case thats another reason why people may feel like the truth is somehow being hidden more than with chernobyl, they may expect to see some hideous tales of death by radiation poisoning.
 
If you have an issue with elbows' posting and feel that it is inappropriate, I might suggest that reporting the posts would be a better option than sitting about disrupting the thread shouting "look at me".

I'm not doing that am I?

I don't have any problem with Elbow's posts. I read them with interest. It's just that I would like some concise information from 'anyone' who can explain in simpletons speak I can understand. OK?
 
Elbow's isn't doing the honest bit from where I read. Not on this thread at least.

You didnt like my flu threads either, but for quite the opposite reason. The problem may just be that when it came to swine flu, you thought the risk was stupidly overblown, especially by the media, and wanted u75 to be the counterbalance to that. But there I was making long boring posts full of pesky details, refusing to downplay the theoretical risk that pandemics have, and often speaking of worst case horrors and chastising people for complacency.

Now with Fukushima, perhaps with Fukushima you think the risk is being stupidly underplayed by the media, and want u75 to be the counterbalance to that. And here I am, with those pesky details and too many words again, failing to tell you quite how gory, smelly and repugnant this event is, failing to proclaim the end of the world or to speak of a certain number of children that must surely be doomed in future as a result of this nuclear clusterfuck.

If I dont paint pictures in a way that means anything to you, then so be it, we shouldnt spend any more time repeatedly demonstrating how many worlds apart we are.
 
...
The answer to whether we are in a similar 'birth defects and child cancers' situation now really does come down to geography more than anything else, that and timescale...expect to see some hideous tales of death by radiation poisoning.

Can you explain the geography bit? More precisely, can you explain why a cloud of nuclear dust floating around the earth is a not going to affect all?
 
OK. I'll tell you 'Elbows' exactly what my problem is with you.

You come here and post a very rational explanation about why we should all be worried, then you try to reassure us with your scientific knowledge you can't really explain.

You act/write like some of the PR people I used to work with. That isn't what I value about U75.

We're just different people with different values.
 
I think fukushima could well have had worse results than Chernobyl in terms of the number of people affected by the long term radiation effects if the wind hadn't been blowing the vast majority of the radiation released out to sea, purely because Japan is more densely populated than the area around Chernobyl, with far less opportunity to move people away from the area, or just stop using large tracts of contaminated land.

If they have managed to dodge the bullet, it really does seem to have been as much from luck & bravery as judgement and prior planning.
 
OK. I'll tell you 'Elbows' exactly what my problem is with you.

You come here and post a very rational explanation about why we should all be worried, then you try to reassure us with your scientific knowledge you can't really explain.

You act/write like some of the PR people I used to work with. That isn't what I value about U75.

We're just different people with different values.
I don't think that's fair at all.

Elbows has repeatedly stated that he's not an expert on the subject, but has spent much of the last few weeks trawling through all the available information on this disaster, and posting up the salient points as he sees them in terms that other none experts might also be able to understand reasonably easily.

I certainly appreciate his input to this thread, and afaik elbows isn't a died in the wool pro or anti nuclear campaigner, and seems to have been relatively objective to my eye.
 
I don't think that's fair at all.

Elbows has repeatedly stated that he's not an expert on the subject, but has spent much of the last few weeks trawling through all the available information on this disaster, and posting up the salient points as he sees them in terms that other none experts might also be able to understand reasonably easily.

I certainly appreciate his input to this thread, and afaik elbows isn't a died in the wool pro or anti nuclear campaigner, and seems to have been relatively objective to my eye.

That's exactly the problem with these scientific, rational, sober judgements. Where's the passion?
 
I don't think that's fair at all.

Elbows has repeatedly stated that he's not an expert on the subject, but has spent much of the last few weeks trawling through all the available information on this disaster, and posting up the salient points as he sees them in terms that other none experts might also be able to understand reasonably easily.

I certainly appreciate his input to this thread, and afaik elbows isn't a died in the wool pro or anti nuclear campaigner, and seems to have been relatively objective to my eye.

Read it all again. I read Elbow's posts with interest, but not a single question is ever answered. Not here. Not about the flu things. It's very clever writing.
 
It's just that I would like some concise information from 'anyone' who can explain in simpletons speak I can understand. OK?

Clearly Id love to be able to do this as I seem to be refusing to give up. Please help by giving some clues as to what sort of thing you are searching for. I've been putting it as many different ways as I can for many posts now. Here is another way of looking at it.

If I lived pretty close to the nuclear plant and I refused to leave then I would not be shocked if I had real bad health problems. And Id be kinda surprised if I was still alive a decade or so later, although this would probably still be well possible. If I had evacuated, then I would not expect to be going back.

If I lived somewhere beyond the exclusion zone but not too much further away, I would be afraid, and would have been considering temporary relocation since early on, especially if I had a young family. If I lived in the affected locations north west of the plant where some scary data has been published from, Id have a bit of a doomed attitude, and would be cursing myself for not running away on a whim early on before data became available.

If I lived in Tokyo, Id be a bit concerned, Id be watching the weather closely and going a little nuts that they hadnt contained the leaks yet. Id not be in any immediate fear for my health, but I would be concerned that myself, my family, or the wider population could suffer some effects in decades to come. It would be tempting to attribute every cancer heard of from then on to Fukushima, but in reality only certain clues will be picked up by dull stats in the years ahead.

If I lived in countries not too far away from Japan I would be concerned, but not to the level of changing my behaviour really. Living much further away than that, but still in the northern hemisphere, I dont think Fukushima has altered my health prospects much, and my concerns are with the people of Japan. And in general Im surprised there arent more nuclear accidents, so when this one happened I was not exactly shocked.

I am expecting lots more bad news from the reactors & pools to emerge over time, but theres no knowing whether any of it will radically alter the health risks compared to what we understand them to be right now.
 
That's exactly the problem with these scientific, rational, sober judgements. Where's the passion?

Fuck all to do with scientific, rational, sober judgements. The fact is that there aren't any judgements. No information. Just regurgitated nonsense in different words. I'm surprised you can't see that.

I do actually enjoy the posts. Enjoy reading them, but there isn't any information there really. It's like reading a corporate newsletter from the nuclear power energy corp.
 
Fuck all to do with scientific, rational, sober judgements. The fact is that there aren't any judgements. No information. Just regurgitated nonsense in different words. I'm surprised you can't see that.

I do actually enjoy the posts. Enjoy reading them, but there isn't any information there really. It's like reading a corporate newsletter from the nuclear power energy corp.

Good luck in your quest for pure, unadulterated truth on the internet.
 
Give it a rest Stanley. Your drinking is 97,178 times more likely to shorten your lifespan than a Japanese meltdown. Fact.
 
Read it all again. I read Elbow's posts with interest, but not a single question is ever answered. Not here. Not about the flu things. It's very clever writing.
as far as I can see elbows has answered your questions to the best of his ability, and tbh I don't think you'd get an answer that satisfied you even from a recognised expert in the field. You appear to be wanting simple answers to very complex questions, and unfortunately those answers don't exist at this moment in time, and won't until a shitload of further research and follow up studies are done, some of which will need to be years down the line as some of the impacts take that long to manifest themselves.

TBH I doubt we'll ever really know how much radiation has been released, and how dangerous that would have been had the wind been blowing in a different direction, or how close the situation came to total meltdown (presuming that we are out of those particular woods, which seems likely but is by no means certain).
 
Good luck in your quest for pure, unadulterated truth on the internet.

Thank you. I shall find it.

May I also state that the plutonium levels currently being experienced in many areas of Japan are higher than normal, but until we have certified statistics from qualified personell we can't actually state whether there is a risk to human health.
 
Fuck all to do with scientific, rational, sober judgements. The fact is that there aren't any judgements. No information. Just regurgitated nonsense in different words. I'm surprised you can't see that.

I do actually enjoy the posts. Enjoy reading them, but there isn't any information there really. It's like reading a corporate newsletter from the nuclear power energy corp.
it's all lies, we're all going to die from horrible radiation related illnesses, after mutating to have webbed fingers and gills from eating the mutant fishes.

is that the kind of straight answer you were seeking?
 
Can you explain the geography bit? More precisely, can you explain why a cloud of nuclear dust floating around the earth is a not going to affect all?

Its a question of quantity. And the nature of how it is released, what substances are involved, and the weather, determines where it ends up. As you might expect, large concentrations tend to end up falling quite near to where the explosion of fire occurs, hence the evacuation zone. But some of it goes on a longer journey. Much of this ends up landing in areas in such small quantities that its not deemed much of a risk at all, but for example with Chernobyl's affects on farming in parts of the UK, it happened to rain when some concentrations of nasty shit were just overhead.

Its not a good thing that quantities of various nuclear substances are in the northern hemisphere at large right now, but I dont know what you want me to tell you its going to do to people, I cant give a number. I can say that its not going to wipe out a significant chunk of humanity, based on the fact that we let off a silly number of nuclear bombs in the air for decades, so its far from the first time that we have contaminated ourselves in this sort of way.
 
May I also state that the plutonium levels currently being experienced in many areas of Japan are higher than normal, but until we have certified statistics from qualified personell we can't actually state whether there is a risk to human health.

How high are these plutonium levels and where in Japan?
 
How high are these plutonium levels and where in Japan?

They haven't been measured by certified experts yet, but we expect them to be high in some areas. However, at this stage of proceedings we cannot confirm that there is a human health risk.

*Your food might be fucked mind.*
 
Thank you. I shall find it.

May I also state that the plutonium levels currently being experienced in many areas of Japan are higher than normal, but until we have certified statistics from qualified personell we can't actually state whether there is a risk to human health.

Not through certified statistics you won't.
 
You just stated this "fact" so answer the questions how much and where?
May I also state that the plutonium levels currently being experienced in many areas of Japan are higher than normal, but until we have certified statistics from qualified personell we can't actually state whether there is a risk to human health.
They haven't been measured by certified experts yet, but we expect them to be high in some areas. However, at this stage of proceedings we cannot confirm that there is a human health risk.

*Your food might be fucked mind.*

Oh now "we" expect them to be high in "some areas" who is "we" and which areas?

Define "fucked"
 
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