Exit impact on Northern Ireland

[ska invita]

Im really curious about the Northern Ireland / Ireland situation.

To recap NI voted remain (56%) and normally get large sums of money from the EU including for the Peace Programme (Brexit threatens £425 million in EU Peace programme grants to Northern Ireland - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk)

And they have a border with Ireland who are in the EU which would now need patrolling post exit.

Sinn Fein are calling for a referendum for Irish Unity
Sinn Fein calls for Irish unity poll as Brexit fallout begins

Do people think there is any chance of Sinn Fein pulling this re-union off ?

I notice that in that piece it says "McGuinness demanded that London call a referendum on a united Ireland.", suggesting that Westminster would have to authorise a referendum?
Does Stormont not have this power? I forget what happened with the Scottish Indie vote - did Holyrood similarly have to get permission from Westminster?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Nationalists voted strongly remain. Unionists 50:50. But my guess is that the 50% Unionist remain weren't that passionate in their view. Very few people were passionately remain, tbh. (but I might be wrong about NI)

But as in Scotland, the point can now be made legitimately - we didn't vote to leave, and what argument against a referendum could Unionists have?

Be interesting to hear from NI posters. Was this a big thing there?

 

[ska invita]

The financial implications, now exit is a reality, might change things - i can well believe that there wasnt much passion in the vote, but it might well all look very different today

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Shame revol is not here.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Odd position, tactically, for nationalists (very different stripes, obv) in NI and Scotland. They've got their ideal result - we voted in, England voted out. That was the only place from which they could demand referendums, no?

 

[ska invita]

Really interesting piece...
The English have placed a bomb under the Irish peace process | Fintan O’Toole

little extract:

"I never imagined then that I would ever feel bitter about England again. But I do feel bitter now, because England has done a very bad day’s work for Ireland. It is dragging Irish history along in its triumphal wake, like tin cans tied to a wedding car.

All but a few diehards had learned to live with the partition of the island of Ireland. Why? Because the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic had become so soft as to be barely noticeable. If you crossed it, you had to change currencies, and if you were driving you had to remember that the speed limits were changing from kilometres per hour to miles. But these are just banal details. They do not impinge on the simple, ordinary experience of people sharing an island without having to be deeply conscious of division.



A ‘money exchanged’ sign at the border between Newry in Northern Ireland and Dundalk in the Republic of Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images
What will now happen is not that the old border will come back. It’s much worse than that. The old border marked the line between neighbouring polities that had a common travel area and an intimate, if often fraught, relationship. It was a customs barrier. The new border will be the most westerly land frontier of a vast entity of more than 400 million people, and it will be an immigration (as well as a customs) barrier.

ALSO

Meanwhile, the cornerstone of the peace settlement, the Belfast agreement of 1998, is being undermined. One of the key provisions of the agreement is that anyone born in Northern Ireland has the right to be a citizen of the UK or Ireland or both. What does that mean in the new dispensation? Can someone be both an EU citizen and not an EU citizen? Likewise, the agreement underpins human rights through the “complete incorporation into Northern Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights”.

----

Makes a more general point that the campaigns gave no shits about the consequences of this for Ireland - it was all about England, England, England...
I have to agree: I dont think much thought was given to any aspects of the UK union, nor to negative impact to other europeans, from all sides

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Unless Ireland joins Schengen there really shouldn't be any need for a manned border.

 

[ska invita]

Unless Ireland joins Schengen there really shouldn't be any need for a manned border.

Why so? Is there not free inter EU movement to Ireland as it stands? Couldn't someone from France say, just turn up and settle indefinitely?

There is also the possibility that the UK will join Schengen (or similarly sign up to free movement within the EU )!

 

[brogdale]

Strange times....

 

[crossthebreeze]

Why so? Is there not free inter EU movement to Ireland as it stands? Couldn't someone from France say, just turn up and settle indefinitely?

There is also the possibility that the UK will join Schengen (or similarly sign up to free movement within the EU )!

I think its shit that the implications for Ireland were never explained/investigated by either campaign. I suspect they won't reinstate the border (and will just renegotiate some of the details of agreements between the UK and Ireland (the Common Travel Area is a separate agreement not part of EU membership) to iron out inconsistencies. Lots of people have various combinations of dual citizenship so I can't see NI-born people who want dual citizenship having any problems (though it will probably be advantageous to have dual rather than single citizenship), and I can't see how any mainstream politician would think it remotely desirable to stop NI born people having Irish citizenship or reduce Irish citizen's rights within the UK, unless they really want to stir up problems.
The ECHR is part of the Council of Europe not the EU. The Tories were already threatening to abolish the human rights act even within the EU, but apparently they wouldn't have to leave COE/ECHR even if they did that (though it would be easier for them leave the COE/ECHR if they've left the EU).

 

[crossthebreeze]

A handy diagram from wikipedia showing international agreements - its a complicated situation, not just the EU.
Edit: From here (where it has clickable links)

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Why so? Is there not free inter EU movement to Ireland as it stands? Couldn't someone from France say, just turn up and settle indefinitely?

There is also the possibility that the UK will join Schengen (or similarly sign up to free movement within the EU )!

Schengen is movement between countries with no passport controls. Ireland is not in Schengen, passports must be shown to enter Ireland from France. A post EU UK would be happy to allow free movement from Ireland to the UK, the sole difference maybe that French people might not be able to settle in the UK. But that is residency and not visiting, so no need for a border between Ireland and the U.K.

 

[mauvais]

Schengen is movement between countries with no passport controls. Ireland is not in Schengen, passports must be shown to enter Ireland from France. A post EU UK would be happy to allow free movement from Ireland to the UK, the sole difference maybe that French people might not be able to settle in the UK. But that is residency and not visiting, so no need for a border between Ireland and the U.K.

Ireland currently enforces its borders on terms common to the UK. If you're French and Ireland's let you in, then what does the UK care, because the UK would let French people in after a similar check anyway. Not so post-EU, unless free movement persists.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Ireland currently enforces its borders on terms common to the UK. If you're French and Ireland's let you in, then what does the UK care, because the UK would let French people in after a similar check anyway. Not so post-EU, unless free movement persists.

Pretty sure free movement will continue. Those who voted out to stop that will be disappointed. Good.

 

[brogdale]

Supply problem for those demanding cake & eating it....

 

[Idris2002]

Really interesting piece...
The English have placed a bomb under the Irish peace process | Fintan O’Toole

little extract:

"I never imagined then that I would ever feel bitter about England again. But I do feel bitter now, because England has done a very bad day’s work for Ireland. It is dragging Irish history along in its triumphal wake, like tin cans tied to a wedding car.

All but a few diehards had learned to live with the partition of the island of Ireland. Why? Because the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic had become so soft as to be barely noticeable. If you crossed it, you had to change currencies, and if you were driving you had to remember that the speed limits were changing from kilometres per hour to miles. But these are just banal details. They do not impinge on the simple, ordinary experience of people sharing an island without having to be deeply conscious of division.



A ‘money exchanged’ sign at the border between Newry in Northern Ireland and Dundalk in the Republic of Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images
What will now happen is not that the old border will come back. It’s much worse than that. The old border marked the line between neighbouring polities that had a common travel area and an intimate, if often fraught, relationship. It was a customs barrier. The new border will be the most westerly land frontier of a vast entity of more than 400 million people, and it will be an immigration (as well as a customs) barrier.

ALSO

Meanwhile, the cornerstone of the peace settlement, the Belfast agreement of 1998, is being undermined. One of the key provisions of the agreement is that anyone born in Northern Ireland has the right to be a citizen of the UK or Ireland or both. What does that mean in the new dispensation? Can someone be both an EU citizen and not an EU citizen? Likewise, the agreement underpins human rights through the “complete incorporation into Northern Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights”.

----

Makes a more general point that the campaigns gave no shits about the consequences of this for Ireland - it was all about England, England, England...
I have to agree: I dont think much thought was given to any aspects of the UK union, nor to negative impact to other europeans, from all sides

The ECHR isn't an EU document, and UK leaving the EU would make no difference to it. I'm surprised (well not really) that Fintan doesn't seem to know that.

 

[Poi E]

Yeah, but it will be on the hit list. It's pretty much Tory policy.

 

[Casually Red]

Really interesting piece...
The English have placed a bomb under the Irish peace process | Fintan O’Toole

little extract:

"I never imagined then that I would ever feel bitter about England again. But I do feel bitter now, because England has done a very bad day’s work for Ireland. It is dragging Irish history along in its triumphal wake, like tin cans tied to a wedding car.

All but a few diehards had learned to live with the partition of the island of Ireland. Why? Because the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic had become so soft as to be barely noticeable. If you crossed it, you had to change currencies, and if you were driving you had to remember that the speed limits were changing from kilometres per hour to miles. But these are just banal details. They do not impinge on the simple, ordinary experience of people sharing an island without having to be deeply conscious of division.



A ‘money exchanged’ sign at the border between Newry in Northern Ireland and Dundalk in the Republic of Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images
What will now happen is not that the old border will come back. It’s much worse than that. The old border marked the line between neighbouring polities that had a common travel area and an intimate, if often fraught, relationship. It was a customs barrier. The new border will be the most westerly land frontier of a vast entity of more than 400 million people, and it will be an immigration (as well as a customs) barrier.

ALSO

Meanwhile, the cornerstone of the peace settlement, the Belfast agreement of 1998, is being undermined. One of the key provisions of the agreement is that anyone born in Northern Ireland has the right to be a citizen of the UK or Ireland or both. What does that mean in the new dispensation? Can someone be both an EU citizen and not an EU citizen? Likewise, the agreement underpins human rights through the “complete incorporation into Northern Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights”.

----

Makes a more general point that the campaigns gave no shits about the consequences of this for Ireland - it was all about England, England, England...
I have to agree: I dont think much thought was given to any aspects of the UK union, nor to negative impact to other europeans, from all sides

Seriously though..fuck him. Why on earth should a single mum on a zero hour contract in Hull give 2 shits about some utterly , laughably dysfunctional parliament outside of Belfast . And the shower of utterly useless bastards sitting on the gravy train in it ? Coining it in while doing fuck all .
If he was worried about the political impact of partition in Ireland he should have spent some effort in his useless life opposing it. Instead he's made a long and lucrative living demonising everyone who ever tried to get rid of it. Been a supporter of it . Attacking all and sundry those who opposed it..Including certain ballad groups . Now he's worried people will notice partition is actually a fact of life.
The mans a notorious lick spittle . And a gobshite . He's worried brexit will negatively impact on the cosy status quo for various Irish elites. And that..horror of horrors..Calais might end up outside Dundalk. It's a self pitying whinge .

Honestly not having a go at you but OTooles background is notorious .

 

[Pickman's model]

The ECHR isn't an EU document, and UK leaving the EU would make no difference to it. I'm surprised (well not really) that Fintan doesn't seem to know that.

Also I thought the most westerly land border of the EU was around French Guyana

 

[Casually Red]

I think its shit that the implications for Ireland were never explained/investigated by either campaign. I suspect they won't reinstate the border (and will just renegotiate some of the details of agreements between the UK and Ireland (the Common Travel Area is a separate agreement not part of EU membership) to iron out inconsistencies. Lots of people have various combinations of dual citizenship so I can't see NI-born people who want dual citizenship having any problems (though it will probably be advantageous to have dual rather than single citizenship), and I can't see how any mainstream politician would think it remotely desirable to stop NI born people having Irish citizenship or reduce Irish citizen's rights within the UK, unless they really want to stir up problems.
The ECHR is part of the Council of Europe not the EU. The Tories were already threatening to abolish the human rights act even within the EU, but apparently they wouldn't have to leave COE/ECHR even if they did that (though it would be easier for them leave the COE/ECHR if they've left the EU).

Yeah but all migrants have to do is get the bus or train from Dundalk to Newry ..10 miles...or even a taxi to Crossmaglen ..5 miles..and theyre in the UK . It's not about Irish people. It's about non Irish people entering the UK using the Irish border as an uncontrolled and unchecked entry point . Which it will be unless border controls return .
If Brexit is about immigration then without a doubt the UK government isn't going to sit there and permit a gaping big land frontier with the EU to sit wholly unguarded and unmonitored for anyone within the EU to cross whenever they feel like . Just can't see that happening .

There's also the possibility that as some sort of punitive measure the EU could tell the free staters to institute border controls on what will also be the EUs land frontier. The southerners have an unerring habit of rolling over for whichever masters crack the whip . They'll do it if told .

 

[Idris2002]

Yeah but all migrants have to do is get the bus or train from Dundalk to Newry ..10 miles...or even a taxi to Crossmaglen ..5 miles..and theyre in the UK . It's not about Irish people. It's about non Irish people entering the UK using the Irish border as an uncontrolled and unchecked entry point . Which it will be unless border controls return .
If Brexit is about immigration then without a doubt the UK government isn't going to sit there and permit a gaping big land frontier with the EU to sit wholly unguarded and unmonitored for anyone within the EU to cross whenever they feel like . Just can't see that happening .

There's also the possibility that as some sort of punitive measure the EU could tell the free staters to institute border controls on what will also be the EUs land frontier. The southerners have an unerring habit of rolling over for whichever masters crack the whip . They'll do it if told .

Yeah, well, there was a period when ever I went from Belfast to Dublin I would be challenged by the immigration police at Dundalk. I'm not even that dark, FFS.

 

[ska invita]

Seriously though..fuck him. Why on earth should a single mum on a zero hour contract in Hull give 2 shits about some utterly , laughably dysfunctional parliament outside of Belfast . And the shower of utterly useless bastards sitting on the gravy train in it ? Coining it in while doing fuck all .
If he was worried about the political impact of partition in Ireland he should have spent some effort in his useless life opposing it. Instead he's made a long and lucrative living demonising everyone who ever tried to get rid of it. Been a supporter of it . Attacking all and sundry those who opposed it..Including certain ballad groups . Now he's worried people will notice partition is actually a fact of life.
The mans a notorious lick spittle . And a gobshite . He's worried brexit will negatively impact on the cosy status quo for various Irish elites. And that..horror of horrors..Calais might end up outside Dundalk. It's a self pitying whinge .

Honestly not having a go at you but OTooles background is notorious .

Okay never heard of him... Though its not about a woman from hull it's the fact that the London campaigners didn't mention Ireland at all.... And it doesn't look like anyone even drew up plans for what might happen in event of exit.

 

[Casually Red]

Im really curious about the Northern Ireland / Ireland situation.

To recap NI voted remain (56%) and normally get large sums of money from the EU including for the Peace Programme (Brexit threatens £425 million in EU Peace programme grants to Northern Ireland - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk)

And they have a border with Ireland who are in the EU which would now need patrolling post exit.

Sinn Fein are calling for a referendum for Irish Unity
Sinn Fein calls for Irish unity poll as Brexit fallout begins

Do people think there is any chance of Sinn Fein pulling this re-union off ?

I notice that in that piece it says "McGuinness demanded that London call a referendum on a united Ireland.", suggesting that Westminster would have to authorise a referendum?
Does Stormont not have this power? I forget what happened with the Scottish Indie vote - did Holyrood similarly have to get permission from Westminster?

Stormont have no power in that and many other regards. It's solely up to the British secretary of state...who can also collapse stormont itself in a heartbeat and exclude parties . As was done some years back .

McGuinness is just making noise . He knows full well that there won't be a referendum . He also knows that if there was one he'd lose . Thanks to the inbuilt sectarian gerrymander which is the 6 counties itself . Political smoke and mirrors in order to be seen " doing something " in the face of being confronted with major political failure . If a hard border returns him and his ilk will be in major hot water . it's why OToole is having a hissy fit too .

If brexit was the key to unification you'd think he'd have been campaigning for it instead of against .

If Scotland does vote to leave the union I reckon the English should take that golden opportunity to cut the 6 counties loose. Just tell them to fuck off . It'd be a seriously popular suggestion I reckon . In England at least .

 

[Pickman's model]

Stormont have no power in that and many other regards. It's solely up to the British secretary of state...who can also collapse stormont itself in a heartbeat and exclude parties . As was done some years back .

McGuinness is just making noise . He knows full well that there won't be a referendum . He also knows that if there was one he'd lose . Thanks to the inbuilt sectarian gerrymander which is the 6 counties itself . Political smoke and mirrors in order to be seen " doing something " in the face of being confronted with major political failure . If a hard border returns him and his ilk will be in major hot water . it's why OToole is having a hissy fit too .

If brexit was the key to unification you'd think he'd have been campaigning for it instead of against .

If Scotland does vote to leave the union I reckon the English should take that golden opportunity to cut the 6 counties loose. Just tell them to fuck off . It'd be a seriously popular suggestion I reckon . In England at least .

Tbh I wouldn't be surprised if this did lead to a 32 county republic

 

[Casually Red]

Okay never heard of him... Though its not about a woman from hull it's the fact that the London campaigners didn't mention Ireland at all.... And it doesn't look like anyone even drew up plans for what might happen in event of exit.

I honestly don't blame them . They've problems enough of their own .
Just in case we all sound like pathetic lickspittles I've got to say I heartily agree with every word of this .

A 'shackled' Paddy who rolls over is unfit to mock Brexit - Independent.ie

 

[Casually Red]

Tbh I wouldn't be surprised if this did lead to a 32 county republic

Oh yeah..there's definitely that potential , one of the major reasons I supported brexit. But it wont be via the good Friday route as McGuinness is waffling about. It'll be a lot more chaotic than that . One thing otoole is right about it is it puts various constitutional arrangements on v shaky ground . It's why he's panicking . The apple cart could be upset .

 

[Casually Red]

Yeah, well, there was a period when ever I went from Belfast to Dublin I would be challenged by the immigration police at Dundalk. I'm not even that dark, FFS.

Pre Nice treaty, and the EU ..and their Irish sock puppets...refusing to accept the outcome of the Irish referendum . Again.

 

[Casually Red]

Im really curious about the Northern Ireland / Ireland situation.

To recap NI voted remain (56%) and normally get large sums of money from the EU including for the Peace Programme (Brexit threatens £425 million in EU Peace programme grants to Northern Ireland - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk)

And they have a border with Ireland who are in the EU which would now need patrolling post exit.

Sinn Fein are calling for a referendum for Irish Unity
Sinn Fein calls for Irish unity poll as Brexit fallout begins

Do people think there is any chance of Sinn Fein pulling this re-union off ?

I notice that in that piece it says "McGuinness demanded that London call a referendum on a united Ireland.", suggesting that Westminster would have to authorise a referendum?
Does Stormont not have this power? I forget what happened with the Scottish Indie vote - did Holyrood similarly have to get permission from Westminster?

This piece answers you much better than I could have . Villiers casually swatted them aside like a fly, instantly. And there's nothing they can do about it . Absolutely nothing.

Northern Ireland secretary rejects Sinn Féin call for border poll

And they're currently bricking it

 

[Idris2002]

Reuters story:

Brexit vote makes united Ireland suddenly thinkable

I still think it would take a firm separation of Scotland from UK, and the latter's de facto collapse for unity to occur. But at this point I would not like to predict anything.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

(Deleted post)