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Donald Trump - MAGAtwat news and discussion

I am not looking forward to this at all, it's been painful over the last few months, we're finally getting to the official election day, but it could be days or weeks later before we have the final result, then the fear of what will come next, Trump winning is certainly the scariest outcome, but the trouble he will stir up if he doesn't is also scary, what a fucking mess.

It's been a real rollercoaster ride, before Biden stood down I was resigned to the idea that Trump was going to win, all hope was drained from me, then Harris looked like a real game changer, and I started to think there was some hope, but the narrowing of the polls recently, despite all the fuckwitty from Trump, has left me in despair.

However, there seems to be various little things going on, that together, could be really positive. Sky News reporters across the pond are saying there's growing evidence of higher than normal turn-out amongst women and young voters in early voting, which sounds positive.

And, there's a couple of other things in the news today that has caught my eye this morning, firstly this from NBC on how the pollsters are using tools that could be over compensating for problems in the 2016 and 2020 polls. TBF it's full of 'ifs' and 'buts', however when read in conjunction with what Sky is reporting, it could prove interesting.

www.nbcnews.com

A lot of state poll results show ties. So are they tied because of voters — or pollsters?

Analysis: Even in a close election, random chance means polls should be showing a broader range of results. That raises the question of whether we’re in for another polling surprise.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

But the fact that so many polls are reporting the exact same margins and results raises a troubling possibility: that some pollsters are making adjustments in such similar ways that those choices are causing the results to bunch together, creating a potential illusion of certainty — or that some pollsters are even looking to others’ results to guide their own (i.e., “herding”). If so, the artificial similarity of polls may be creating a false impression that may not play out on Election Day. We could well be in for a very close election. But there’s also a significant chance one candidate or the other could sweep every swing state and win the presidency somewhat comfortably, at least compared to the evenly balanced picture in the polls.
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Another more likely possibility is that some of the tools pollsters are using in 2024 to address the polling problems of 2020, such as weighting by partisanship, past vote or other factors, may be flattening out the differences and reducing the variation in reported poll results. The effect of such decisions is subtle, but important, because it means that the similarity of polls is being driven by the decisions of pollsters rather than voters.
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Worth reading the full article.

Then there's this shock poll in Iowa, OK it's only one single poll, but apparently it's from Selzer who are "a widely respected polling organisation with a good record in Iowa."

A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers.

The Selzer poll carried out for the Des Moines Register newspaper showed Harris ahead of her Republican rival by three points.

Midwestern Iowa is not one of the seven battleground states of the 2024 election, which have consisted of the Rust belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun belt states of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.
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While political experts and pollsters are very wary of putting too much store in any one single poll, Selzer is a widely respected polling organisation with a good record in Iowa. If Harris were even competitive in Iowa – which Trump won in both 2016 and 2020 – it could radically reshape the race.

The Selzer poll has Harris over Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
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The poll showed that women are driving the late shift toward Harris in the state. If true and borne out more widely, that would also be significant as the Harris campaign has focused on turning out women amid a broad gender gap with Republican-trending male voters. Harris and her campaign have focused on the overturning of federal abortion rights by the conservative-dominated US supreme court.

The reaction among pundits and pollsters was largely one of shock and surprise, though it was also pointed out that a rival polling group still had Trump leading in Iowa.

“This is a stunning poll. But Ann Seltzer [sic] has as stellar a record as any pollster of forecasting election outcomes in her state. Women are powering this surge. Portents for the country?” said David Axelrod, a former top aide to Barack Obama.
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So, little flickers of hope! :)

www.theguardian.com

Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll

In shocking result that could reshape the race, ex-president falls three points behind in a state he won in 2016 and 2020
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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cupid_stunt said:
Then there's this shock poll in Iowa, OK it's only one single poll, but apparently it's from Selzer who are "a widely respected polling organisation with a good record in Iowa."
Click to expand...
I have to say that this did give me a glimmer of hope. I had been trying to come to terms with an unfavourable outcome, but I can't help this poll injecting me a little bit of pep.
cupid_stunt said:
So, little flickers of hope! :)
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I have found it amusing that the Democrats "What happens in the booth stays in the booth" campaign is being countered by Republicans basically saying "Keep an eye on your women".


Remember when Bush Jr said he believed humans and fish could coexist in peace and Dan Quale couldn't spell potato? Simpler times.
 
petee said:
it became increasingly clear that Trump was underperforming

stopped reading there.
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🤷‍♂️ up to you, you can read or not read what you want, but I think it's useful analysis. That word seems like a strange thing to have such a strong reaction to, unless you think that Trump actually performed really well in the 2020 election? If you're implying that word choice means the writer is somehow pro-Trump, he's really really not.
 
From the context it is clear that the authors is saying that Trump underperformed compared to the level he needed to in order to win.

It is not any sort of endorsement or support for Trump.
 
hitmouse said:
🤷‍♂️ up to you, you can read or not read what you want, but I think it's useful analysis. That word seems like a strange thing to have such a strong reaction to
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by whose calculations was he underperforming? lots of people knew that biden was going to win big. perhaps he was underperforming by the expectation of his own campaign staff, but why adopt their point of view?

so gee i wonder, are there other p.o.v.'s that would lead someone to say trump "underperformed" in 2020?
 
petee said:
by whose calculations was he underperforming? lots of people knew that biden was going to win big. perhaps he was underperforming by the expectation of his own campaign staff, but why adopt their point of view?

so gee i wonder, are there other p.o.v.'s that would lead someone to say trump "underperformed" in 2020?
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It adopts their point of view because it's explaining why they leaned so hard into the conspiracy theories about the stolen election last time round, as part of a broader analysis investigating their ability to pull off a similar stunt this time.
 
Not this nonsense again!!!


Donald Trump, who said in Pennsylvania on Sunday that he regrets leaving the White House in 2021, is ending the 2024 campaign the way he began it – dishing out a stew of violent, disparaging rhetoric and repeated warnings that he will not accept defeat if it comes.

At a rally in the must-win battleground state, the former president told supporters that he “shouldn’t have left” office after losing the 2020 election, described Democrats as “demonic” and complained about a new poll that no longer shows him leading in Iowa, which he twice carried.

Trump spent much of his speech ranting about alleged election interference this year and lamenting his departure from office after losing to Joe Biden four years ago. The US had the “safest border in the history of our country” on the day he left office, Trump claimed.

“I shouldn’t have left, I mean, honestly,” he went on, harkening back to the aftermath of the last election.

Acknowledging he’d gone off-script, Trump – in a county he won by more than 15 points in 2020 – claimed again, with no evidence, that this vote was fixed against him.
 
krtek a houby said:
www.theguardian.com

‘We are locked and loaded’: Trump fans in North Carolina ready for a ‘stolen election’

Supporters in Kinston back ex-president as he claims he’s well ahead in polls and repeats conspiracy of election fraud
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Tldr?

Trump faithful ready for the big steal, grandmas with guns, January 6th was a hoax, it was all the fault of antifa and all the greatest hits.
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Personally, she intended to avoid any trouble that might erupt in the wake of Tuesday’s election, she said. “I have kids, I can’t afford to go to prison. And I don’t like orange.” :hmm:
 
He touted the false accusation at the Kinston rally that Democrats are enabling non-citizens to vote in vast numbers, accusing the Biden administration of pursuing an open-border policy on the southern border with Mexico “maybe [because they] want to put them on the voting rolls. That’s probably the reason.”


Supporters at the rally faithfully parroted the lie on Sunday.

“That’s why they opened the border, to allow all the illegals in so they could vote for Democrats,” said a woman in the line who declined to give her name. “There’s always been corruption in this country, but I had no idea it was this bad. America has been run into the ground – anyone with half a brain can see that.”
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Whereas those with a full brain can see it's bollocks.
 
Yossarian said:
Personally, she intended to avoid any trouble that might erupt in the wake of Tuesday’s election, she said. “I have kids, I can’t afford to go to prison. And I don’t like orange.” :hmm:
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Yeah, I think that was one of the interesting points from the Nomad piece I posted upthread - in 2020/21, Trump supporters were basically people with no experience of state repression, and a lot of them were deluded enough to think that because they were "fighting to save America" or whatever, that meant the legal system wouldn't target them. Post 2021, that illusion is a lot harder to sustain, so fingers crossed that'll keep a lot more of them off the streets.
 
hitmouse said:
Yeah, I think that was one of the interesting points from the Nomad piece I posted upthread - in 2020/21, Trump supporters were basically people with no experience of state repression, and a lot of them were deluded enough to think that because they were "fighting to save America" or whatever, that meant the legal system wouldn't target them. Post 2021, that illusion is a lot harder to sustain, so fingers crossed that'll keep a lot more of them off the streets.
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Yoss was highlighting the joke that Trump is orange...
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Yoss was highlighting the joke that Trump is orange...
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Oh yeah, I got that as well, I am just interested in how far Trump's base might have shifted from people who are willing to kick off personally if he loses to people going "go on mate, I'll hold your coat for you if anything kicks off, but I can't get into anything myself, my back's playing up a bit." And obviously this is all just vague speculation on my part cos it's not like I have much day-to-day interaction with hardcore Trump supporters anyway.
 
Their seems to be a general view in the media that if Trump loses the election then he has a good chance of facing jail for the Hush money/falsifying
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Yoss was highlighting the joke that Trump is orange...
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Well probably but there is the thing of being made to wear Orange jumpsuits in jail, I mean ok its a double entendre but well, never mind
 
Fwiw, this is very belated at this point, but another idea I'd seen floated in US antifascist circles was the possibility that all the Ohio pet-eating stuff was coming from people who'd been paying attention to the UK and were deliberately attempting to "do a Southport" in terms of using disinformation to stir up pogroms that would then set a national agenda. Not sure that would've been a particularly successful move even if it did go to plan, cos I'm not sure that our far right is in a stronger position after this summer, but if that was the plan then it definitely failed to pay off, there was racist activity around Springfield but there really wasn't mass racist pogroms/riots like those seen over here.
Which could be another indicator that, seven years after Charlottesville and four years after January 6th, US far-right militants are feeling more inclined to stay home counting their guns than to take part in big street mobilisations. Or maybe not, we'll see.
 
Smangus said:
Wondering about mass MAGA suicide if he loses , like how many cults end.
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I thought this was fascinating, it's long but gives real insight into people getting more and more certain that they're going to be rich after they've bought loads of shares after a pump & dump by someone they pretty well worship, and as their stocks go down and down until they disappear.

But they still they tune into a channel where a couple of grifters are selling selling selling enthusiastically and charge hundreds of dollars for invites to a meeting with them that gives absolutely nothing. They still think their shares will be magically revived even though many of them have lost their wife and kids, their homes and their jobs. One of them is still thinking they'll be worth millions and suggests he'll top himself if his shares aren't reissued, although he tries to pass it off as a joke. Proper cult stuff.

Fez909 said:
Just watched this - basically a sequel to the GME saga, but this time with Bed Bath & Beyond stock. It's even more mental.

Click to expand...


Eta: and there's all the special reddit terminology of the sort that cults love - feeling that they understand this privileged knowledge that ordinary people don't.
 
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