gosub
~#
Is in line with EU foreign policy,
what ever happened to that or the EU defence force for that matter - we need someone to protect Gibraltar
Do you now support military action against Syria's government?
- Thread starter Diamond
- Start date
what ever happened to that or the EU defence force for that matter - we need someone to protect Gibraltar
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Looks like things are shifting toward Assad having not ordered the chemical attack...
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
do you mean he didn't order it or that people have changed their opinions and no longer believe he ordered it or that there's some strange time travel thing going on and he's shifted the past?
To be honest no-one's ever going to know conclusively one way or the other. It'll be a basis for speculation for years to come, claim and counterclaim, with all the big powers and the compliant media sources that work for them desperately repeating any thing to help out their side.
If it was ordered by the Syrian govt, still marginally the more likely scenario, as the chemical weapons unit of the Syrian army is staffed with diehard Alawite Assad supporters, the most loyal of the loyal, so pretty unlikely to be a rogue commander. If it's got to the point where Assad's chemical weapons soldiers are acting indepdently like this then the regime must be crumbling.
If it was the rebels then how did this poorly trained group of jihadi's and militiamen manage to lauch a precise and co-ordinated artillery strike of that type? It's not like they've shown that sort of capability elsewhere in the country, if they had they might have had more luck in ousting Assad. I thought it might've been the rebels at first, just because the timing seemed so fortuitous, but the more I think about it the less likely it seems. The could only have done so with a lot of external help, and the evidence for this is patchy at best.
I'm leaning 60/40 towards it being the Assad govt that did the chemical weapons attack rather than the rebels myself.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
I disagree, I think certainties are imminent.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Why does that matter? Why is Assad ordering it the key thing for you here? Where is this shifting being evidenced?
gosub
~#
Inclinded to agree, the two versions of the radio transcripts :UK has state of the art listening post on Cyprus yet wasn't part of the case put to parliament adds weight to the it being a tweaked if you did that you are dead.. As does the is it British, Germany or Israeli like the yellow cake in Iraq no one wants to admit full ownership. UK vote meant they were caught on the hop and shoring up with shoddy evidence.
The Saudi Russian OPEC thing is interesting, as is Russia putting the alternative supply chain to the UN. Hopefully Rand Paul's impeachment threat will be enough to keep things on the rails til 17 the and hum dinger of a General assembly
Eta It's going to come do radar/satellite tracks that enable Kerry to do his who where and when. Why exactly are they not giving that to the UN?
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weltweit
Well-Known Member
A real certainty would be nice.
A politician claiming certainty we have heard before.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
Gut feelings I guess. I doubt we'll need long to find out, of course if the war kicks off anyway in the next two weeks it'll make any such definitive evidence implicating the rebels an irrelevance. It'll be like 2006 or something, yeah yeah so the war was based on 'misinterpreted data', it's all very well heckling from the sidelines but now we're in
Who's talking about the findings of the investigation into the attack three months ago now? Think I read something about the findings of that investigation recently, sounded quite 'game changing' but I doubt we'll see any headlines now.
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camouflage
gaslit at scale.
No shit, you can vaporize people, fry em, melt em, explode em, percolate em, shred em or thermobarically-burst em away on a super heated breeze, but whatever you do don't chemicalize em to death, that's just... gross.
My take on where the line is drawn in terms of WMD has been based on the idea that some weapons continue to blight an environment long after the battle or even war is over (nuclear weapons for instance), weapons of mass environmental and hereditary destruction. I find this a reasonably meaningful distinction.
The nastiness of death by conventional military action generally and the social destruction that results is why starting a war should be a crime against humanity at all in my view.
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It's already kind of irrelevant though - the US and it's allies have already got their heart set on regime change whether or not Assad's used chemical weapons against his own civilians. A lot of this is just arguing over the casus belli and it shouldn't distract us from the bigger picture.
My gut feeling was also that it didn't make sense for it to be Assad, the timing of it just as UN weapons inspectors were present, the fact the Syrian govt seemingly had the momentum without using those weapons that could trigger western intervention, and since then the reticence of the US to publicly share this cast-iron evidence they speak of at the UN. All that together's enough to put doubts in anyone's mind. But I've seen stuff since that's put a few of those initial ideas to bed. For example I couldn't understand why govt would attack an area so close to the capital, so close to their own civilian supporters, whilst there's UN people knocking around. But then I saw that report in le figaro suggesting there might've been US undercover special forces in Ghouta, and then I remembered how the Syrian's had said they'd not use chemical weapons except unless there was "outside interference". Perhaps the use of chemical weapons was to send a message to the US and Israel? That the gloves come off if they start getting any more involved?
Then I read another thing saying how even though the govt has managed to win some key battles elsewhere in Syria they've had little success in shifting the rebels that were camped out to the east of Damascus. Then I found out how strategically important it was, the eastern flank of Damascus of Irbin and Ghouta, because that bit is just a few miles directly north of the main arterial road linking the centre of Damascus to Damascus International Airport, one of the regime's most important lifelines. Clearing them out must've been a pressing concern for Assad, and the government's lack of success at doing so must have hugely been hugely frustrating. So I've had to rethink some of my initial assumptions and misgivings about what's gone on, because it first I thought it was an irrational act of madness for Assad to do that, but I don't think that any more.
I don't buy the stuff about it being some rogue commander that the zero hedge article insinuates, if the chemical weapons unit of the Syrian army has lost discipline and starting using chemical weapons then it's over for Assad, that's the sign of all discipline breaking down and the end being nigh. We haven't heard anything to suggest that was the case before August 21st.
Then on the other hand there's some big problems with idea that some rebel group did this. One of the longstanding problems the rebels have had, and one of the reasons they've been losing recently, is that the don't have much by way of heavy weapons and they're not very good at using them. Then all of a sudden they launch a co-ordinated chemical weapons attack with artillery, precisely on specific rebel-held civilian areas, in some "false flag" operation to frame the Syrian govt. Since when did the rebels go all delta force? I'm not sure they've got the ability to actually pull of some of the more fantastical scenarios people are putting out there. It's not impossible they did, I can see what they'd stand to gain by doing so and I wouldn't put it past them ethically, and so i'm trying to keep an open mind, but at the same time some idiots are just going full infowars and coming out with ill-founded conspiracist stuff.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Think you're right it's not going to be conclusive any time soon, it's interesting it is coming out now via German intel, Germany being a country that wants to maintain good relations with Russia who are against the US moves to attack...
gosub
~#
Zero hedge isn't insinuating at all its a rogue officer quite the opposite that units ordinance was all accounted and he stood up to 3days questioning about it. Disagree with his sourcing of the counter version :first appeared in intelligence briefing to German parliament.
Either version raises interesting questions about British Intel
Would be surprised if anyone thought it was the 'rebels' ie blokes firing home made bombs, but false flag, that would have the full clandestine backing of a state behind it.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
New intel and the sheer high levels of public and military opposition is probably putting pressure on him...
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
What new intel?
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
looked more like another derail, and my recollection is they were jailed for desecrating a church .
that piece of shite
he should have admitted to operation hoseshoe when he was at it
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well when I said this after the UK vote I was hedging my bets as to how much impact it would actually have. I have also maintained an open mind as to whether the US really wanted to indulge in military action this time, since there have been mixed messages all along and not just the usual steady march to war.
It now seems that at least some commentators are willing to describe the momentum having been lost in the days after the UK vote. eg:
Taken from the sidebar of http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24058006
ska invita
back on the other side
does anyone know a good source for regular and up to date reports from Syria?
Mr.Bishie
pickled egg
You on twitter? https://twitter.com/Free_Media_Hub
ska invita
back on the other side
not really no, but thanks bishie. Maybe im missing it but i couldnt even find a Syria tag on the Al Jazeera website
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