Dr. Jazzzz does have a point here that presumably there are a bunch of lookalikes running around Iraq (or rather hiding for their lives), hence the DNA test. With $25M on their various Saddamesque heads, pretty quickly they would have all been rounded up, I think.
It is him, but I'm not convinced by the story of how he got to be on TV at the weekend.
We heard so much about Saddam's bunkers before the War, and have seen all the construction his regime undertook building palaces etc., I would have expected him to have been holed up in far a far more bling, Bond- baddie mountain lair if he had indeed been in hiding. I think there's a lot to be said for him having been held against his will. At least recently. The question then is by whom. Could have been the Americans, the Kurds or his own people.
[That beard is too long to have been grown in the spider hole if he was making speeches on Nov 16th, so he was using it as a disguise before he was caught, or gave himself up.]
The Americans may well have had him in custody and set up the photo- op, designed to reduce his public image in such a way as to break his spirit as part of their interrogation technique. Having suffered that humiliation maybe he will lead them to the mythical WMDs. Predicatably, it would seem they managed to offend muslims the world over in so doing.
The Kurdish connection is intriguing, given the animosity they presumably feel towards Hussein, but the spider hole was found in a more "loyal" region - I simply don't know if Kurds would have been able catch and hold him hostage around there. If that's where he was caught, of course. Otherwise, they caught him and offered him to the Americans for $25M. Since our Turkish friendsaren't fond of the Kurds, they're unlikely to have seen any of it. More like a signed photo and honorary Marine certificate. If they were lucky.
I think it also entirely possible Saddam was held by his closet supporters, who being political animals, eventually decided to back the obvious winner in the conflict and turned on him. You can do a lot with $25M.
Unlucky for them, though, there was clearly no way the reward was just going to be paid to whomever, to possibly fall into the hands of evildoers and fund anti- American insurgency (perish even the accusation by the opposition). There was probably some protracted negotiation along the lines of "how do you like living? That's worth $25M - about what the salvo of missiles pointed at your village is going to cost..."
Therefore, the timing and spinning of this story could have been very carefully managed.
There's no denying it has pushed the Halliburton overcharging story off the frontpages. Whether this is by fortune, or design is pretty much a question of faith.
At the end of the day, the Vice President of the country that has reduced Iraq to rubble is a former director of the company awarded the plum contract to rebuild that same country in a closed tender. (The deal of the century, to date). This company was accused last week of overcharging the American forces for supplies, oil, etc. etc. It does not take much to wonder if they plan to overcharge the Iraqis too. For years to come. At the very least, it smacks of cronyism, to make the understatement of the century.
This is certainly the most politically sensitive story, domestically, for the Bush administration since the election campaign effectively started. And yet, a bigger story has already trumped it.
Furthermore, it's much better to keep Saddam alive and use his trial to focus attention away from any future unsavoury stories that may come to light, rather than blow your wad on a grainy pic of a corpse that fades from the news in a week.
Put the Osama production into turnaround for a couple years...
