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[two sheds]

A sizeable COVID-19 episode on a fishing boat appears to have not infected crew members who already had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. This may be the first direct, clear evidence that such antibodies protect people against being reinfected.

'Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection from SARS-CoV-2 in humans during a fishery vessel outbreak with high attack rate', Addetia, Crawford, Dingens, et al.

Do they say how long ago the crew members who had antibodies were infected/recovered?

Also first comment on that abstract:

I'm curious, isnt it possible that the three fishermen who had antibodies prior to departure were in fact the ones who spread it to the rest of the crew?

Although if they did genome testing you'd imagine that would have shown up.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Do they say how long ago the crew members who had antibodies were infected/recovered?

Also first comment on that abstract:



Although if they did genome testing you'd imagine that would have shown up.

Unlikely. Reading the paper, everyone was tested for C-19 prior to departure, and everyone came back negative, so it is likely someone there had just caught it. The three with neutralising antibodies tested positive for IgG antibodies prior to departure, and these take between 2 and 4 weeks to develop post-infection.

The sera of the three individuals with neutralizing titers also had high activity in an assay that measure the ability of antibodies to block RBD binding to ACE2, as well as in IgG ELISAs against spike and RBD

 

[two sheds]

I'm wondering whether the three had only recently recovered from the virus, though - the study doesn't seem to address how long we can expect antibody protection to last.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The FT is doing some good visuals tracking the course of the pandemic worldwide. May be of interest.

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries fight Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

Shows clearly how the centres of infection have changed over time. More than 60% of deaths are now happening in the Americas.

They also track excess deaths for the first six months of the year. Clearly some of these countries, particularly in the Americas, are still on the way up, but comparisons can be made between European countries whose first waves of deaths are mostly over. Excess deaths per million shows what seemed very likely early on in this - that the UK would end up a bit worse than Italy, a little less bad than Spain. Startling figures for Peru and Ecuador. Peru, in particular, is an ongoing catastrophe.

There are variations across countries in the difference between excess deaths and the headline covid death figures. In some countries, such as Sweden and Germany, the figures are very similar. In France and Belgium, excess deaths is in fact lower than the headline covid total. In the UK, the Netherlands and Spain, it is significantly higher. Suggests differences in measuring methods perhaps more than anything deeper. I know Belgium was casting its net very broadly at at the start to catch suspected covid deaths.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm wondering whether the three had only recently recovered from the virus, though - the study doesn't seem to address how long we can expect antibody protection to last.

Afaik, there is no documented case of someone with symptomatic covid-19 recovering and then becoming reinfected. That's a pretty big sample size now for that not to have happened, giving 'at least four to five months' as the provisional answer.

 

[two sheds]

Ah that's really promising, thanks

 

[2hats]

Children’s role in spread of virus greater than thought...

"I was surprised by the high levels of virus we found in children of all ages, especially in the first two days of infection,” says Lael Yonker, director of the MGH Cystic Fibrosis Center and lead author of the study. “I was not expecting the viral load to be so high. You think of a hospital, and of all of the precautions taken to treat severely ill adults, but the viral loads of these hospitalized patients are significantly lower than a ‘healthy child’ who is walking around with a high SARS-CoV-2 viral load."

"Kids are not immune from this infection, and their symptoms don’t correlate with exposure and infection,” says Alessio Fasano, director of the Mucosal Immunology and Biology Research Center at MGH and senior author of the manuscript. “During this COVID-19 pandemic, we have mainly screened symptomatic subjects, so we have reached the erroneous conclusion that the vast majority of people infected are adults. However, our results show that kids are not protected against this virus. We should not discount children as potential spreaders for this virus."

Data from the group show that although younger children have lower numbers of the virus receptor than older children and adults, this does not correlate with a decreased viral load. According to the authors, this finding suggests that children can carry a high viral load, meaning they are more contagious, regardless of their susceptibility to developing COVID-19 infection.

Looking at children as the silent spreaders of SARS-CoV-2

A new study has found that children infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 were shown to have a significantly higher level of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in ICUs for COVID-19 treatment.

news.harvard.edu

Paper: 'Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses', Yonker, Neilan, Bartsch, Alter, Li, Fasano, JPeds (2020). DOI: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2020.08.037

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Children’s role in spread of virus greater than thought...

Looking at children as the silent spreaders of SARS-CoV-2

A new study has found that children infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 were shown to have a significantly higher level of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in ICUs for COVID-19 treatment.

news.harvard.edu

Paper: 'Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses', Yonker, Neilan, Bartsch, Alter, Li, Fasano, JPeds (2020). DOI: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2020.08.037

Fits with the latest antibody results from the UK. Those found 6% antibodies overall, rising to 8% in people 18-24, falling to 3% in 65-74 age group. Seems likely that upward trend wouldn't stop at 18. More young people than old appear to have been catching it, it's just way more deadly for the old.

Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults

It finds that antibody levels 'may start to wane' after about 90 days. Bit vague...

Of the 5,544 IgG positive people, 3 ,406 ( 61.4 %;60.1, 62.7) reported one or more typical symptoms (fever, persistent cough, loss of taste or smell), 353 (6.4% ; 5 .8, 7.0 ) reported atypical symptoms only, and 1,785 (32 .2%; 3 1.0, 33 . 4) reported no symptoms. This varied by age , with people over 65 being more likely to report no symptoms (3 92/8 01, 48.9 %, 45. 4, 52.4) than those aged 18-34 (418 /1 ,3 93, 30.0 %, 27. 6, 32.4) o r 3 5-64 years (975 /3, 3 50, 29.1 %, 27 .6, 30.6 ), (p<0 .001) (Table S 1 and S2); prevalence wa s higher in those with more severe symptoms, and who had contact with a confirmed or suspected case (

Interesting, perhaps surprising, finding that asymptomatic cases are more prevalent in the old than the young.

 

[LDC]

Fits with the latest antibody results from the UK. Those found 6% antibodies overall, rising to 8% in people 18-24, falling to 3% in 65-74 age group. Seems likely that upward trend wouldn't stop at 18. More young people than old have been catching it, it's just way more deadly for the old.

Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults

It finds that antibody levels 'may start to wane' after about 90 days. Bit vague...



Interesting, perhaps surprising, finding that asymptomatic cases are more prevalent in the old than the young.

Yeah, I was chatting to a friend the other day and both his parents (in their 70s) have had it, caught early on from a coach trip round Northern Italy. One of them had very mild symptoms, the other one no symptoms at all, yet they both tested positive at the time with swab test, and both positive afterwards for antibodies.

E2A: Anecdote obviously, rather than data or proof of anything.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yeah, I was chatting to a friend the other day and both his parents (in their 70s) have had it, caught early on from a coach trip round Northern Italy. One of them had very mild symptoms, the other one no symptoms at all, yet they both tested positive at the time with swab test, and both positive afterwards for antibodies.

Seems a pattern with research into C19. New results often confound previous expectations. And quite a few results can appear to be contradictory. There really is shitloads that we don't understand.

 

[elbows]

I looked into Spain some more. It seems the increase in deaths was predictable because their hospitalisation data has been moving in that direction for some time.

This graph is from about 9 days ago via Las hospitalizaciones se cuadruplican en un mes por el aumento de casos



And since then (I machine translated this article Las muertes por coronavirus notificadas por Sanidad se disparan en agosto )

The indicators do show a clear increase in pressure on the health system . Hospitalizations in the last week have grown by 55%, to 1,336 admissions, while those of the ICU have grown even more, by 71%.

 

[frogwoman]

What's the story with Aragon? Seems a pretty big drop which is good.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What's the story with Aragon? Seems a pretty big drop which is good.

New cases in Aragon do appear to be falling. Lower last week than the week before. It's an area that missed the first wave largely - nearly a third of its total cases have come in the last two weeks! It accounts for nearly half of deaths in the last week.

In a way Madrid is more of a worry. It was hit hard in the first wave, and has gone up considerably again.

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...ina/documentos/Actualizacion_188_COVID-19.pdf

 

[Teaboy]

Children’s role in spread of virus greater than thought...

Looking at children as the silent spreaders of SARS-CoV-2

A new study has found that children infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 were shown to have a significantly higher level of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in ICUs for COVID-19 treatment.

news.harvard.edu

Paper: 'Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses', Yonker, Neilan, Bartsch, Alter, Li, Fasano, JPeds (2020). DOI: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2020.08.037

On the children thing it just makes sense to me that children can carry and transmit the virus. In the head long rush to get the schools back open (for understandable reasons) there have been people queuing up to say that the risk of transmission between kids is nothing. That always seemed odd to me as kids are known to be super spreaders for a lot of things. Conflating not having noticeable symptoms with not being infected and infectious never sat comfortably with me.

Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out when all the schools reopen.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out when all the schools reopen.

I'm slightly terrified, because my daughter might not show symptoms, but with me (and I am sure other people like me) with no immune system, if we get it . . . that's pretty shit, and there is not much I can do about it. I have no idea what the school or government guidelines are beyond "go back to school".

 

[mx wcfc]

On the children thing it just makes sense to me that children can carry and transmit the virus. In the head long rush to get the schools back open (for understandable reasons) there have been people queuing up to say that the risk of transmission between kids is nothing. That always seemed odd to me as kids are known to be super spreaders for a lot of things. Conflating not having noticeable symptoms with not being infected and infectious never sat comfortably with me.

Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out when all the schools reopen.

The argument that I've heard is that "there is little evidence of transmission in schools". This may be true, but given the schools have been pretty much closed since this started, it is hardly surprising, either.

 

[Teaboy]

I'm slightly terrified, because my daughter might not show symptoms, but with me (and I am sure other people like me) with no immune system, if we get it . . . that's pretty shit, and there is not much I can do about it. I have no idea what the school or government guidelines are beyond "go back to school".

Aye and as if closing the pubs is going to make a jot of difference to that.

I suppose there are some grounds for optimism in that kids have been out and about for months now, playing with other kids with all the rough and tumble that comes with. This hasn't seemed to have caused any notable problems so far.

 

[clicker]

Aye and as if closing the pubs is going to make a jot of difference to that.

I suppose there are some grounds for optimism in that kids have been out and about for months now, playing with other kids with all the rough and tumble that comes with. This hasn't seemed to have caused any notable problems so far.

I'm not sure kids have been interacting as normal for months now. Holiday clubs, afterschool activities, playgrounds, soft play etc have been mostly closed. No morning assemblies, school canteens or packed buses . Families have definitely curtailed normal service when it comes to visiting family and friends.
I suppose the good thing is, any negative effect of suddenly opening up schools to all will be seen quickly.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The argument that I've heard is that "there is little evidence of transmission in schools". This may be true, but given the schools have been pretty much closed since this started, it is hardly surprising, either.

There is evidence from other countries. Finland reopened its schools without issue. Denmark also had gradual reopenings. Sweden never closed them. It can be done.

Also remember some schools here never closed either.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out all die when all the schools reopen.

FTFY

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

I suppose the good thing is, any negative effect of suddenly opening up schools to all will be seen quickly.

If my daughter gets it and I die I will comfort myself that negative effects are seen quickly.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This is linked to the findings of the importance of 'superspreaders'. There is growing evidence that children are rarely superspreaders. You're probably more likely to catch it from a teacher than from a child.

eg this study in Finland.

School children unlikely to play a significant role in COVID-19 spread, says Finnish study

One of the takeaways from that is that it will be absolutely vital for no teacher even to consider going to work with any kinds of symptoms. Another takeaway, inevitably, is that more research is needed...

 

[Teaboy]

This is linked to the findings of the importance of 'superspreaders'. There is growing evidence that children are rarely superspreaders. You're probably more likely to catch it from a teacher than from a child.

Yes, it was me who mentioned super spreaders but only in relation to more common things such as colds etc.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes, it was me who mentioned super spreaders but only in relation to more common things such as colds etc.

wrt Covid, evidence suggests that most people don't pass it on to anyone - perhaps as many as eight or nine in ten don't pass it on. Then a few pass it on to loads of people. And in this regard, it does appear that children are less likely to be one of those 'one in ten' than adults, rather than more likely.

 

[elbows]

Dont jump the gun on this stuff. New reports are emerging all the time and some of them point in a different direction to the picture you are keen on.

Its way too early for me to make claims one way or the other that are solid enough that they can then be translated to policy.

Forr example just today from the same website as the Finnish study you linked to:

Children play a larger role in the community spread of COVID-19 than previously thought

In the most comprehensive study of COVID-19 pediatric patients to date, Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and Mass General Hospital for Children (MGHfC) researchers provide critical data showing that children play a larger role in the community spread of COVID-19 than previously thought

www.news-medical.net

I considered the headline to be misleading but the detail is of interest anyway.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Hence my 'more research is needed'. Evidence is often slim and sometimes contradictory. However, the macro evidence of schools in Scandinavia, where you don't consider the causes, merely the outcomes, is encouraging.

 

[elbows]

Your attitude towards school-related risks has been clear for a long time. I am at odds with it, but only time will really tell.

 

[frogwoman]

The This Week in Virology podcast is really worth listening to on this.

 

[Doodler]

A friend who lives in New York claims New Yorkers find self-isolation hard because they tend to be very sociable compared to the inhabitants of the other US large cities he knows.

A new mass screening finds just over 27% of New Yorkers test positive for Covid antibodies.

New York Times article

As you'd expect, the general pattern is for people from poorer areas to be more likely to have been infected.

In one small district, over 50% of those tested were positive. The district is called . . . Corona.

ETA: an NYC study some weeks previously found a 19-20% rate iirc but was conducted with people visiting grocery stores, not really a random sampling.

 

[clicker]

If my daughter gets it and I die I will comfort myself that negative effects are seen quickly.

If they're seen quickly measures can be taken quickly we hope. We could also learn now from countries already opening up schools. This does overall put us in a better position than we were in February onwards. But will we?

PHE were (unsurprisingly) not mandating students wearing face masks, this could change maybe to put our schools more in line with others. Hopefully schools and parents will work together to take what precautions they can. The guidance from above isn't reassuring anyone.

I can envisage outbreaks in schools, it's inevitable. There doesn't seem to be any consistent guidance about what happens after cases are found though. A lot of people are going to be worrying for a long time.