Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[frogwoman]

Yemen and COVID-19: The pandemic exacts its devastating toll

Yemen’s civil war is about to be eclipsed in a tragic manner.

www.brookings.edu

 

[krtek a houby]

This is tragic

At least 13 dead as Peru police raid nightclub in Lima after Covid ban

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Guardian reporting what is believed to be the first bona fide case of a second reinfection four and a half months after leaving hospital having been cleared.

He was reinfected with a different strain, to which he was asymptomatic this time, while the first one made him very ill. So that is perhaps a good thing. But first signs that immunity to the earlier strains is losing its effectiveness to new strains, which is a bad thing.

Coronavirus live news: Hong Kong man's second Covid-19 infection gives rise to immunity concerns

The 33-year-old male was cleared of Covid-19 and discharged from a hospital in April, but tested positive again after returning from Spain via Britain on 15 August.

The patient had appeared to be previously healthy, researchers said in the paper, which was accepted by the international medical journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

He was found to have contracted a different coronavirus strain from the one he had previously contracted and remained asymptomatic for the second infection.

“The finding does not mean taking vaccines will be useless,” Dr Kai-Wang To, one of the leading authors of the paper, told Reuters. “Immunity induced by vaccination can be different from those induced by natural infection,” To said. “[We] will need to wait for the results of the vaccine trials to see if how effective vaccines are.”

 

[Badgers]

Guardian reporting what is believed to be the first bona fide case of a second reinfection four and a half months after leaving hospital having been cleared.

He was reinfected with a different strain, to which he was asymptomatic this time, while the first one made him very ill. So that is perhaps a good thing. But first signs that immunity to the earlier strains is losing its effectiveness to new strains, which is a bad thing.

Coronavirus live news: Hong Kong man's second Covid-19 infection gives rise to immunity concerns

Concerning but one single case could be an anomaly?

 

[frogwoman]

I've heard anecdotally of people becoming reinfected. It's supposed to be quite rare though.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As far as I know (and I have been looking out for it), this is the first documented case. Previous suspected reinfections probably were not - probably cases in which the virus had never fully cleared.

This is potentially very significant, tbh. Up to now, we could have some confidence that immunity was pretty much universal and that it had been holding for everyone for at least four or five months.

This appears to be a case not of a person losing their immunity so much as the virus changing sufficiently that the immunity to the old version no longer works well. So a bit like how the annual flu mutates and leaves an old vaccination ineffective. At least the person didn't get ill this time. Hopefully that indicates that the immunity to the old strain remains at least partially effective against the new one.

I guess the fear in all this is that a second wave could be even more deadly than the first, which is what happened with both Russian flu (probably a coronavirus) and Spanish flu. However, there is this finding from Spanish flu, and C-19 doesn't appear to be mutating to become more deadly at least.

Those infected with mild symptoms in first wave were protected from more-severe disease in wave 2 or wave 3, thus proving that it was the same virus in wave 1, and that exposure led to protection (immunity).

https://www.consultant360.com/article/consultant360/1918-what-can-we-learn

Also this from that article. Come on Covid, get to work. New generation to take care of.

Frederick Trump, grandfather of the president, died of influenza on May 30, 1918, in the early days of the pandemic. According to the family, he had felt suddenly sick the day before while walking with his son, Fred

 

[elbows]

If I zoom in on Italys hospital data then an increase can be spotted. Its fairly modest so far but its still the wrong direction.

Can only just see it on the first two graphs so I zoomed in for the 2nd set by only using data from July 1st onwards.

Data is from pcm-dpc/COVID-19

 

[AnandLeo]

Donald Trump gives emergency authorisation for use of plasma to treat coronavirus.

Royal Manchester Children’s Hospital patient is the first in the UK to receive convalescent plasma through dedicated COVID-19 treatment trial - Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust
News posted 3 June, 2020

 

[frogwoman]

Gaza enters Covid lockdown as first community cases emerge

Palestinians fear ‘catastrophe’ amid weak healthcare, economic toll and increased tensions with Israel

www.theguardian.com

Oh shit

 

[2hats]

As far as I know (and I have been looking out for it), this is the first documented case. Previous suspected reinfections probably were not - probably cases in which the virus had never fully cleared.

This is potentially very significant, tbh. Up to now, we could have some confidence that immunity was pretty much universal and that it had been holding for everyone for at least four or five months.

This appears to be a case not of a person losing their immunity so much as the virus changing sufficiently that the immunity to the old version no longer works well. So a bit like how the annual flu mutates and leaves an old vaccination ineffective. At least the person didn't get ill this time. Hopefully that indicates that the immunity to the old strain remains at least partially effective against the new one.

This patient, one in X tens of millions of cases, was asymptomatic. Likely this indicates their immune system was reacting early with some degree of efficacy against the virus second time around. The (not yet peer reviewed) research doesn't appear to measure how infectious they were.

Human immune reaction to all previously exposed pathogens is a wide spectrum and no immune response in any individual is comprehensive for any disease. There are very small numbers of recorded instances of re-infection of (otherwise) healthy individuals by other viruses so one would expect the same here for SARS-CoV-2.

All research thus far indicates a fairly robust (primarily T-cell) immune response in the healthy on exposure to SARS-Cov-2. Said response lasting for at least several months. Understanding of longer term immunity will only come when cases have been observed for correspondingly sufficiently long periods of time.

Commentary from the HKU Microbiology department (from where the preprint in question originated):

The risk of Covid-19 re-infection - Fight Covid-19

Siddharth Sridhar, clinical assistant professor from HKU ’s Department of Microbiology shared his insights on the risk of Covid-19 re-infection in an article published on his Facebook on 22 August, 2020. Below is the full article. Can you catch COVID-19 twice? This question has received a lot of...

fightcovid19.hku.hk

and more specifically on the research in question:

HKU documents the world’s first case of COVID-19 reinfection - Fight Covid-19

HKU researchers have documented the world’s first case of reinfection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. While reinfection has been reported before, the study by HKU’s Department of Microbiology is the first in the world to confirm that a person was infected a second time by a different virus. According...

fightcovid19.hku.hk

 

[2hats]

To add - two more cases of apparent re-infection - one each in the Netherlands and Belgium have just come to light.

In the Dutch case the patient was elderly with a poor immune system.

Such cases are to be expected, as per the above explanation. Perhaps if they started to account for, say, >~1% of cases might one be concerned that this is indicative of a significant problem in respect of immunity and potential vaccine efficacy.

 

[Teaboy]

To add - two more cases of apparent re-infection - one each in the Netherlands and Belgium have just come to light.

In the Dutch case the patient was elderly with a poor immune system.

Such cases are to be expected, as per the above explanation. Perhaps if they started to account for, say, >~1% of cases might one be concerned that this is indicative of a significant problem in respect of immunity and potential vaccine efficacy.

Isn't this generally true of a lot of existing vaccines though? They're not particularly effective for the elderly so you hope they are effective enough in the age groups of people who are more likely to spread and keep the virus circulating?

 

[platinumsage]

To add - two more cases of apparent re-infection - one each in the Netherlands and Belgium have just come to light.

In the Dutch case the patient was elderly with a poor immune system.

Such cases are to be expected, as per the above explanation. Perhaps if they started to account for, say, >~1% of cases might one be concerned that this is indicative of a significant problem in respect of immunity and potential vaccine efficacy.

Not really, it's normal to need a booster vaccine to achive long-term immunity. Planning for COVID-19 vaccines has taken this into account.

 

[Anju]

Not sure over what time period the cases built up to 500+, though a week is implied but this can't be a good indicator for our schools, colleges and universities reopening. Article does mention a couple of other universities that have recorded 400+ cases since mid August.

The University of Alabama reports over 500 Covid-19 cases less than a week after classes started

 

[elbows]

Not sure over what time period the cases built up to 500+, though a week is implied but this can't be a good indicator for our schools, colleges and universities reopening. Article does mention a couple of other universities that have recorded 400+ cases since mid August.

The University of Alabama reports over 500 Covid-19 cases less than a week after classes started

Its largely a reflection of the state of their broader epidemic at that point in time though.

I could point to the following graph of Alabama cases and say that it would be the equivalent of UK Universities reopening in early May, which would not have been a good idea at all. But this wouldnt be a correct comparison either because its not just that Alabamas epidemic peak first wave was much later than ours, its also about what measures they did and did not take in different periods, which again will vary compared to the UK and make comparisons tricky. Plus testing regimes varied over time in different places, further complicating comparisons and sometimes compromising a proper view of actual epidemic wave stage.



Thats not to say I think that everything will be fine here, just that its hard to make certain comparisons with places that had different measures and epidemic timing. Still fine to make the broader points though and to highlight this stuff as a cause for concern.

 

[Anju]

Its largely a reflection of the state of their broader epidemic at that point in time though.

I could point to the following graph of Alabama cases and say that it would be the equivalent of UK Universities reopening in early May, which would not have been a good idea at all. But this wouldnt be a correct comparison either because its not just that Alabamas epidemic peak first wave was much later than ours, its also about what measures they did and did not take in different periods, which again will vary compared to the UK and make comparisons tricky. Plus testing regimes varied over time in different places, further complicating comparisons and sometimes compromising a proper view of actual epidemic wave stage.

View attachment 227869

Thats not to say I think that everything will be fine here, just that its hard to make certain comparisons with places that had different measures and epidemic timing. Still fine to make the broader points though and to highlight this stuff as a cause for concern.

OK, that makes sense now. Looking at that graph and the population of Alabama, 4 million, the rate in the university may be lower than the general population, though I checked the university covid dashboard and their figure is from 19/8 so can't compare to the graph figures directly. Plus I'm clueless when it comes to statistics.

Would it be possible to work out the risk of opening large workplaces and educational institutions by comparing new infections in the general population to new infections in those places, where testing is at similar levels.

 

[elbows]

Would it be possible to work out the risk of opening large workplaces and educational institutions by comparing new infections in the general population to new infections in those places, where testing is at similar levels.

Its difficult to do it from the numbers alone. Proper analysis of every case picked up by test & contact tracing systems is one way to try, because hopefully the contact tracing ends up revealing enough about some specific examples of chains of transmission that the infection settings end up being revealed. And then there is research into the various detailed relevant areas of science, such as studying how the virus can actually spread indoors in different ways, what other risks are, how different age groups are affected, stuff like that.

Also the reasons why closing schools is thought to have quite a notable effect on epidemics/pandemics is that it has a big effect on the behaviour of lots of adults too. Most of the key mitigation measures countries took were all about changing the number of contacts everyone has in their routine lives. Closing schools disrupts routines in various ways including people not going to work because of childcare issues. So in terms of the impact of educational closures on how the disease progresses in future, its not just about the risk of transmission within those educational settings.

 

[Anju]

Its difficult to do it from the numbers alone. Proper analysis of every case picked up by test & contact tracing systems is one way to try, because hopefully the contact tracing ends up revealing enough about some specific examples of chains of transmission that the infection settings end up being revealed. And then there is research into the various detailed relevant areas of science, such as studying how the virus can actually spread indoors in different ways, what other risks are, how different age groups are affected, stuff like that.

Also the reasons why closing schools is thought to have quite a notable effect on epidemics/pandemics is that it has a big effect on the behaviour of lots of adults too. Most of the key mitigation measures countries took were all about changing the number of contacts everyone has in their routine lives. Closing schools disrupts routines in various ways including people not going to work because of childcare issues. So in terms of the impact of educational closures on how the disease progresses in future, its not just about the risk of transmission within those educational settings.

Thanks.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not sure over what time period the cases built up to 500+, though a week is implied but this can't be a good indicator for our schools, colleges and universities reopening. Article does mention a couple of other universities that have recorded 400+ cases since mid August.

The University of Alabama reports over 500 Covid-19 cases less than a week after classes started

A better comparison for England and Wales is with Scotland. Despite small regional differences, the UK-wide response has been broadly similar and infection levels across the country are broadly similar now. So we can expect some positive tests in schools in England/Wales when they reopen. Perhaps a few schools closing temporarily. And perhaps some small leakage into the community from schools, although it's not totally clear that that has happened yet in Scotland. Also, in Scotland, teachers taking it into schools has been at least as much of a problem as children doing so.

One of the biggest hurdles is going to be the way this is reported. This report on Scotland from the BBC is typical, opening up with the usual salvo in such stories, that 'a growing number of cases have been confirmed'. This gives the impression of a situation getting worse. But it isn't really. Clusters identified in the first week of reopening have been followed up and found not to have spread. (In terms of absolute numbers, multiply by 10 to get a similar level in England.)

Where have school pupils tested positive for Covid-19?

There's a question of expectation here. Finding a few cases and clusters of cases here and there in schools is what we should expect given the general levels of infection across the country even if not a single person catches it at school. If any clusters found are contained, as has happened in Scotland, that is evidence of a system working. But reporting that I've seen has never taken this angle. It is always about a problem getting worse and what extra measures are needed.

 

[frogwoman]

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

According to this chart, which I know is not necessarily reliable, the rate of increase of infections and deaths globally is slowing down slightly over the last few weeks. I really hope this is true, and not because of reporting issues and the like.

 

[Anju]

A better comparison for England and Wales is with Scotland. Despite small regional differences, the UK-wide response has been broadly similar and infection levels across the country are broadly similar now. So we can expect some positive tests in schools in England/Wales when they reopen. Perhaps a few schools closing temporarily. And perhaps some small leakage into the community from schools, although it's not totally clear that that has happened yet in Scotland. Also, in Scotland, teachers taking it into schools has been at least as much of a problem as children doing so.

One of the biggest hurdles is going to be the way this is reported. This report on Scotland from the BBC is typical, opening up with the usual salvo in such stories, that 'a growing number of cases have been confirmed'. This gives the impression of a situation getting worse. But it isn't really. Clusters identified in the first week of reopening have been followed up and found not to have spread.

Where have school pupils tested positive for Covid-19?

There's a question of expectation here. Finding a few cases and clusters of cases here and there in schools is what we should expect given the general levels of infection across the country even if not a single person catches it at school. If any clusters found are contained, as has happened in Scotland, that is evidence of a system working. But reporting that I've seen has never taken this angle. It is always about a problem getting worse and what extra measures are needed.

It's something that concerns me as our youngest daughter starts university at the end of September and as well as me being over 50 and diabetic my wife has a couple of conditions that put her in the high risk group. Both our kids live with us and have been stressed about possibly contracting and bringing the virus home.

Found Elbows' and your post on this helpful and reassuring as we can discuss their concerns about what they see in the news and offer them some reassurance on the likelihood of them killing us.

 

[elbows]

It's something that concerns me as our youngest daughter starts university at the end of September and as well as me being over 50 and diabetic my wife has a couple of conditions that put her in the high risk group. Both our kids live with us and have been stressed about possibly contracting and bringing the virus home.

Found Elbows' and your post on this helpful and reassuring as we can discuss their concerns about what they see in the news and offer them some reassurance on the likelihood of them killing us.

Well this is where it gets tricky because me and littlebabyjesus have differing opinions in a number of areas and various stuff relating to schools is one where these differences show up most obviously.

I'm also the wrong person to provide reassurances about personal circumstances like the ones you describe. Generally I try to stick to the big themes and how society and various authorities and institutions should deal with the pandemic, various things to watch out for in the data, various terrible mistakes that might be made on a grand scale. When it comes to individuals risk and how they perceive and cope with stuff, I consider that to be a personal matter in some ways, and I dont want to impose on that or come up with tailored advice. Because my sense of risk and how to cope with it might be utterly different to yours. I can try to describe particular situations and data and things that seem to be true, in order to help people percieve the situation accurately, and I am not afraid to shout at stuff I consider to be false hope or misleading claims. But telling people quite how worried they should be about a particular looming aspect of their lives in this pandemic is a step beyond what I am comfortable doing except for the most straightforward and unambiguous of situations. Sorry that this isnt terribly useful. Others round these parts are hopefully better suited to helping with the practicalities and personal risk assessments, and there are better threads for that than this one too.

 

[elbows]

I mean I am after all the sort of person who is currently trying to zoom in on certain countries in Europe to make sure that ideas that have developed regarding 'cases are going up but hospitalisations and deaths arent' dont turn into outdated and misleading premises that our press are being far too slow to correct.

Here is the latest output from my attempts to collate data into my own spreadsheet. Note that in order to show the recent data clearly and not have it overwhlemed by the sheer scale of earlier levels during and soon after their first peak, this graph only shows the numbers from mid May onwards. And its important to remember that to get the proper context. Because the point of this exercise is not to claim that levels are returning to anything like those seen at the peak. Its only to demonstrate that after a long period of falling numbers, it is possible to find signs of rises in the more recent period.

Spain shows this most clearly so far, but I am still adjusting to their new hospital data so I will leave my graphs of their data for another day. But I have also looked at France and in particular the number of new intensive care admissions per day in different regions of France seems to tell a story. These are not huge numbers so I dont seek to make big claims about how big a story they are telling, but its another situation I will watch closely in the weeks ahead.

 

[2hats]

Isn't this generally true of a lot of existing vaccines though? They're not particularly effective for the elderly so you hope they are effective enough in the age groups of people who are more likely to spread and keep the virus circulating?

Not really, it's normal to need a booster vaccine to achive long-term immunity. Planning for COVID-19 vaccines has taken this into account.

The figure is indicative of the need for further research on the matter, not a comment on the direct potential efficacy of any vaccines themselves.

 

[Anju]

Well this is where it gets tricky because me and littlebabyjesus have differing opinions in a number of areas and various stuff relating to schools is one where these differences show up most obviously.

I'm also the wrong person to provide reassurances about personal circumstances like the ones you describe. Generally I try to stick to the big themes and how society and various authorities and institutions should deal with the pandemic, various things to watch out for in the data, various terrible mistakes that might be made on a grand scale. When it comes to individuals risk and how they perceive and cope with stuff, I consider that to be a personal matter in some ways, and I dont want to impose on that or come up with tailored advice. Because my sense of risk and how to cope with it might be utterly different to yours. I can try to describe particular situations and data and things that seem to be true, in order to help people percieve the situation accurately, and I am not afraid to shout at stuff I consider to be false hope or misleading claims. But telling people quite how worried they should be about a particular looming aspect of their lives in this pandemic is a step beyond what I am comfortable doing except for the most straightforward and unambiguous of situations. Sorry that this isnt terribly useful. Others round these parts are hopefully better suited to helping with the practicalities and personal risk assessments, and there are better threads for that than this one too.

It's more being able to look at stuff in context and have / give a better understanding of what headline figures might mean rather than saying 'don't worry' about this or that particular thing.

 

[elbows]

From BBC live updates page at 10:55 which I cannot link to properly right now as the forum is trying to insert it as media.

From 23:00 this evening, bars, restaurants and food shops in the Bouches-du-Rhône region of southern France will have to close under new rules designed to combat the rapid rise in coronavirus cases there.

Masks will also be compulsory throughout Marseille. City health authorities have registered 177 cases of coronavirus per 100,000 people; in France as a whole that figure is 33.

The number of cases nationally is growing by 30-40%, with Paris also now considered a "red zone" where the virus is again actively circulating.

I'm still working on my France spreadsheet but I do have recent ICU data for Bouches-du-Rhône:

 

[elbows]

Much of this should not be a surprise to anyone thats been paying attention but apparently the extent of it is still surprising to some experts:

Obesity increases risk of Covid-19 death by 48%, study finds

Comprehensive study suggests vaccine may not work as well for overweight people

www.theguardian.com

 

[Teaboy]

Much of this should not be a surprise to anyone thats been paying attention but apparently the extent of it is still surprising to some experts:

Obesity increases risk of Covid-19 death by 48%, study finds

Comprehensive study suggests vaccine may not work as well for overweight people

www.theguardian.com

I think the whole covid risk in relation to obesity and diabetes is a bit of an elephant in the room. It does seem pretty conclusive that it plays a big role in your outcome if you contract it.

I look at countries / areas that have high levels of obesity and there is significant correlation with number of covid deaths.

 

[teuchter]

I look at countries / areas that have high levels of obesity and there is significant correlation with number of covid deaths.

Is there actually a significant correlation?

 

[Wilf]

It's something that concerns me as our youngest daughter starts university at the end of September and as well as me being over 50 and diabetic my wife has a couple of conditions that put her in the high risk group. Both our kids live with us and have been stressed about possibly contracting and bringing the virus home.

Found Elbows' and your post on this helpful and reassuring as we can discuss their concerns about what they see in the news and offer them some reassurance on the likelihood of them killing us.

Probably worth you and your daughter looking at what will be expected of her on her particular course. In some institutions it is likely students will be able to complete this year without leaving their bedroom, whereas others will have an element of attendance in smaller groups (and all points inbetween). Some of this information has been slow emerging, but should be there soon, particular as it will be induction in 3/4 weeks. There's a view around in union circles that there will be an increase in cases linked to specific universities/colleges, which will push everyone back to online delivery before Xmas (or maybe outbreaks linked to schools will do the same if they are in the same town). I included that last sentence as a form of reassurance *, believe it or not, though not obviously for the specific places who get the spike...

Edit * I'm not talking mass outbreaks, just a small number of cases within particular student cohorts that mean individual staff will have to quarantine after being in the same room - all disrupting the institution's attempts at having some sort of 'face to face' delivery.