Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[elbows]

As expected the WHO have changed their emphasis and language slightly but still desire wiggle room and an avenue of hope.

Coronavirus: 'Narrowing window' to contain outbreak, WHO says

The World Health Organization says the rise of new cases with no clear link to China is a concern.

www.bbc.co.uk

Dr Tedros said the number of coronavirus cases outside China was "relatively small" but the pattern of infection was worrying.

"We are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to or contact with a confirmed case," he said.

The new deaths and infections in Iran were "very concerning", he said.

But he insisted that the measures China and other countries had put in place meant there was still a "fighting chance" of stopping further spread and called on countries to put more resources into preparing for possible outbreaks.

 

[weltweit]

I haven't been keeping up, had other issues, but deaths in Iran are certainly of concern, usually you might expect many more mild cases for every death. I suspect the Iranian authorities are either lying or not in control.

 

[elbows]

I haven't been keeping up, had other issues, but deaths in Iran are certainly of concern, usually you might expect many more mild cases for every death. I suspect the Iranian authorities are either lying or not in control.

Yes, a whole bunch of aspects of what we know in regards Iran point to a substantial outbreak. And announcing the first two cases once they are deceased gives some clues about timing. Quite how long they sat on info I cannot say, because just like with China there is the period when the disease would not be detected but would be doing its thing, and then the period where they realised this but then sat on the info. I dont know when they gained a proper testing capability either.

But its probably the international cases that are linked with Iran that provided the clearest alarm that the outbreak there is probably substantial. It might even have something to do with when Iran decided to reveal they had cases.

“I think people are missing the importance of a case like the Canadian traveler to Iran,” he said, referring to a case reported by health officials in British Columbia on Thursday. “This tells us that there has to be a much larger number of people infected in Iran and we’re literally just detecting the tip of the iceberg.”

Even Iranian health officials acknowledged that likelihood. “It’s possible that it exists in all cities in Iran,” health ministry official Minou Mohrez said, according to the official IRNA news agency.

From The coronavirus is spreading outside China, narrowing hope to eliminate it

Note with that last comment from the health ministry, they have gone from not acknowledging any cases, to being rather open indeed about the possible current state of play. That doesnt mean that I think all future info from them will be timely and transparent, just that they are not currently pretending that its an isolated outbreak that they are in control of.

 

[Marty1]

As expected the WHO have changed their emphasis and language slightly but still desire wiggle room and an avenue of hope.

Coronavirus: 'Narrowing window' to contain outbreak, WHO says

The World Health Organization says the rise of new cases with no clear link to China is a concern.

www.bbc.co.uk

That is fucking grim to read.

Ive been in bed most of the day with heavy cold, no energy, exhausted etc, can’t imagine what contracting this Coronavirus would be like, not to mention the concern for my parents and other older family members.

 

[sihhi]

Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

“The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said.

I don't mind who I offend but I'll never understand for the life of me why there was no complete lock down on flights from China when Wuhan was quarantined. In controlling a pandemic there has to be a clear zone which is clear where production of essentials such as masks and protective equipment can continue unhindered, slowing the spread should have been the number priority. I feel the health of the world has been sacrificed on the altar of profits.

Everything is just reactive, the virus just is vectored from place to place with no barrier.
Basically all around the world, insufficient testing until person shows up at a hospital, normalcy bias operates (probably influenza, not been to Asia) healthcare workers are infected and pass on to other patients before original person is confirmed as carrier, rinse and repeat.
The Italian case has a Unilever employee returning from China, then having a slight fever but not staying home and continuing to go around and meet people.

The man in the street in this BBC report has 'I am worried Daegu will become the second Wuhan'

Many people in South Korea are wearing masks on a daily basis.

Hand sanitizers have been placed at public transport stops and building entrances.

Warning government signs are everywhere. They say: "Three ways to prevent further infection: wear a mask at all times; wash your hands properly with soap for more than 30 seconds; and cover yourself when coughing."

 

[sihhi]

Former head of the Pasteur Institute, Korea says

A complete travel ban either by air or sea would have been the best option for the country, but unfortunately it was trumped by neighborly diplomacy, and goes to show that the Moon administration does not seem too concerned with the scale of this outbreak; I suspect they are getting "reassurances" from the Chinese authorities that they are doing all they can to curb this outbreak, but doubt very much their reassurances.

 

[elbows]

Well some things are well beyond practical human control.

The horse had already bolted before the Wuhan lockdown. You cannot lockdown entire countries 100% even if the political will was there.

It takes good luck, good timing, right response, and favourable characteristics of the virus in order to prevent pandemics. I would suggest that characteristics of the virus (such as how easily and silently it spreads) are the biggest factors, and humanity is often mostly a passenger in these situations. Humans dont generally prevent respiratory influenza-like pandemics from happening, if the virus has the right characteristics then we cant even observe the outbreaks happening in anything close to realtime, and the lag makes the mission impossible.

The best opportunities to really reduce pandemic risk will involve areas where animals and humans intermingle, and avoiding initial animal->human transmission and subsequent local outbreak in the first place. Thats where we as a species could have the most control over our fate, and where complaints about economic and other interests spoiling things can be most suitably directed.

 

[weltweit]

I was talking to a chap who buys an item from China .. he said his supplier planned to update them on possible deliveries at the end of February.

The factory is in the south of China and I don't think they have permission to attempt to restart production yet.

 

[TopCat]

How long before fatalism sets in and people start holding chicken-pox-style parties so they get the infections over with?

Very 2001AD

 

[elbows]

Very 2001AD

If my memory is vaguely working, I believe the media in some countries loved telling stories about H1N1 2009 swine flu parties, but I'm not sure how much such parties actually happened back then.

That rationale for such parties is much diminished for a whole range of diseases, because the idea makes sense if its something you are only likely to suffer from once, if it is better to have it when young, and if other alternatives such as vaccine are not available.

Coronaviruses do not seem like a good fit for this at all. Immunity is not really expected to last for a start.

 

[weltweit]

I know plenty of people for whom the virus could be the end, people with COPD for example. I myself am an ex smoker who still vapes, I wouldn't chose to play Russian roulette with this virus.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

My wife's cousin reports that face masks are now sold out across Japan.

 

[TopCat]

I know plenty of people for whom the virus could be the end, people with COPD for example. I myself am an ex smoker who still vapes, I wouldn't chose to play Russian roulette with this virus.

This. COPD would be impossible. Lots of conditions it would bring on awful complications.

 

[Part-timah]

Some areas in northern Italy are closing public spaces...

Northern Italy public spaces closed due to coronavirus

Number diagnosed virus rises to 14, says health minister - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[TopCat]

This. COPD would be impossible. Lots of conditions it would bring on awful complications.

Asthma for instance.

 

[elbows]

Lots of new South Korean cases, a big chunk of which involve the hospital outbreak.

South Korea reported 142 new cases of the new coronavirus on Saturday, the largest spike in a single day, bringing the total number of infections in the nation to 346.

Of the 142 new cases, 92 are related to Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo, where South Korea's first fatality occurred, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said.

Korea's virus cases surge to 433 on church services, cluster outbreak at hospital

South Korea reported 229 new cases of the new coronavirus on Saturday, the largest spike in a single day since its first outbreak in late January, bringing the total number of infections in the nation to 433. The number of COVID-19 infections here has soared in the past few days, with most...

www.koreaherald.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

elbows mentioned in one post that an Israeli, from the cruise ship, who tested negative in Japan, had tested positive (provisionally) on her return, she has now been confirmed as infected from lab test results.

And, she's not the only one...

Several other people from around the world who tested negative for the virus in Japan have been found to be carrying the disease after arriving in their home countries. At least four people flown to the US and another two Australians let off the ship have been found to have the virus, raising questions about Japan’s policy of allowing evacuees to return home after testing negative.

Israel confirms first coronavirus case as cruise ship returnee diagnosed

One of 11 Israelis who arrived in the morning following quarantine aboard Diamond Princess ship tests positive, after entering 14-day isolation at Sheba Medical Center

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[weltweit]

It makes sense for me that at one point you can truly be free clear of the virus, then you come into contact with someone else who has it, some viral material is transmitted to you, at this stage you would still test negative but you're doomed to get it.

Then you may go through your incubation stage, which may at the early phase not trigger the test until finally when you have symptoms at which time tests definitely come back positive.

 

[TopCat]

Since being kept on board the cruise liner in the port of Yokohama, a total of 634 passengers and crew have been infected, accounting for more than half of all the confirmed coronavirus cases outside of China.

 

[TopCat]

If my memory is vaguely working, I believe the media in some countries loved telling stories about H1N1 2009 swine flu parties, but I'm not sure how much such parties actually happened back then.

That rationale for such parties is much diminished for a whole range of diseases, because the idea makes sense if its something you are only likely to suffer from once, if it is better to have it when young, and if other alternatives such as vaccine are not available.

Coronaviruses do not seem like a good fit for this at all. Immunity is not really expected to last for a start.

Pneumonia aint to be sneezed at

 

[Marty1]

Is the Coronavirus outbreak heading towards the unthinkable scenario?

This scenario is very short. The virus spreads globally and also mutates, with its transmissibility increasing and its lethality increasing too. The numbers infected would skyrocket, as would casualties. We could be looking at a global pandemic, and at scenarios more akin to dystopian Hollywood films than the realms of economic analysis. Let’s all pray it does not come to pass and just remains a very fat tail risk.

Knowledge - Rabobank

Our international team of analysts covers the latest economic developments around the world, with special focus on global financial markets, the food & agriculture sectors, and the Dutch economy

economics.rabobank.com

 

[Part-timah]

Is the Coronavirus outbreak heading towards the unthinkable scenario?

This scenario is very short. The virus spreads globally and also mutates, with its transmissibility increasing and its lethality increasing too. The numbers infected would skyrocket, as would casualties. We could be looking at a global pandemic, and at scenarios more akin to dystopian Hollywood films than the realms of economic analysis. Let’s all pray it does not come to pass and just remains a very fat tail risk.

Knowledge - Rabobank

Our international team of analysts covers the latest economic developments around the world, with special focus on global financial markets, the food & agriculture sectors, and the Dutch economy

economics.rabobank.com

Its not helpful to add wild speculation to this mix.

 

[elbows]

I'll stick the the virus thats actually out there, not a load of hyped up mutation bullshit. Viruses mutate, thats what they do, but this happens all the time without leading to the sort of picture the media like to paint.

It is incredibly stupid of them to only place global pandemic under their 'the unthinkable scenario', a scenario that involves mutation and increased transmissibility. In fact it is rather unlikely that either of those things need to change from their current level in order for this to become a pandemic.

I have a low opinion of the wisdom of markets, and much of the analysis by economists. Market response to the coronavirus so far has been largely detached from reality, with weeks of entirely inappropriate optimism (or artificial propping up) . There are some sensible aspects buried in that article, but they are ruined by the arbitrary and crass set of scenarios they came up with. Ditch 'the unthinkable' scenario, and the hyperbole that goes with it, and roll the whole pandemic thing into their 'the ugly' scenario, which really already has a lot of pandemic things baked into it in everything but name, and the article is not quite so bad.

 

[Part-timah]

2 dead in Italy: Second coronavirus death sparks fears, lockdown in Italian towns

 

[farmerbarleymow]

I was silently cursing some twat in the lift in Marks who coughed. Had to hold my breath for two floors until I could escape.

Pneumonia aint to be sneezed at

Indeed. I'm glad I've had the pneumonia vaccine which should offer a bit of protection.

 

[elbows]

It offers no protection against this coronavirus, only against the possibility of having another particular infection at the same time.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

It offers no protection against this coronavirus, only against the possibility of having another particular infection at the same time.

Yes, but it provides some protection for other pneumonia causing agents which is always a good thing. I've had chest infections before which were grim, so pneumonia doesn't sound like fun.

 

[Marty1]

I'll stick the the virus thats actually out there, not a load of hyped up mutation bullshit. Viruses mutate, thats what they do, but this happens all the time without leading to the sort of picture the media like to paint.

It is incredibly stupid of them to only place global pandemic under their 'the unthinkable scenario', a scenario that involves mutation and increased transmissibility. In fact it is rather unlikely that either of those things need to change from their current level in order for this to become a pandemic.

I have a low opinion of the wisdom of markets, and much of the analysis by economists. Market response to the coronavirus so far has been largely detached from reality, with weeks of entirely inappropriate optimism (or artificial propping up) . There are some sensible aspects buried in that article, but they are ruined by the arbitrary and crass set of scenarios they came up with. Ditch 'the unthinkable' scenario, and the hyperbole that goes with it, and roll the whole pandemic thing into their 'the ugly' scenario, which really already has a lot of pandemic things baked into it in everything but name, and the article is not quite so bad.

The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.

Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.

 

[pesh]

fill the bath with petrol as well

 

[weltweit]

The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.

Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.

Canned goods perhaps, but why water?