Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[sihhi]

Really I hope not to have to use her as my main Iran source, and anyway her source for that particular piece of news was the Farsi version of radio Farda (US-funded).

The organisation might be the "Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran" the main professional organisation for doctors.
Radio Farda is Radio Liberty's Persian service funded by the US in the same way that BBC World Service Persian is funded by Britain.

There are other non-government journalist saying similar things I believe.

If the average time from infection to death is two weeks, then the virus could have infected a lot of people already, hope things can turn out well.

 

[sihhi]

Still a useful source for finding out what stuff I need to find more out about elsewhere though, so thanks for the tip!

For example I learnt that Iran has elections tomorrow

She filed the NYT coverage of the Iranian government denying it shot the plane even when it was obvious. I don't speak Farsi so I am no good beyond that.

With Chinese, however I can say this: I know one guy whose parents are in Wuhan and one who is presently in another city in Hubei with his wife - situation is food prices at least double on the twice a week shopping trips allowed (3 hours there and back). One Wechat contact has updated on how an Wechat acquaintance of his lost his brother and father.
Someone else with family back there saying the deaths are much more because of people dying at home, says that his relatives suspect having something being picked from inside their xiaoqu put into a van and drive off and then an ambulance or disinfection van also come in an hour or so later.

 

[elbows]

The organisation might be the "Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran" the main professional organisation for doctors.

Well one of my images in the previous post was from the Farsi version of the source article she used, thats as far as I can take it. Some aspects of his comment make more sense if he is speaking as a member of a political party anyway, I'm not using this to judge whether what he is saying is true or not, just to explain his tone and to be aware of certain potential motivations.

Radio Farda is Radio Liberty's Persian service funded by the US in the same way that BBC World Service Persian is funded by Britain.

Yes, and thats exactly why I want other sources too. Such media are still useful because they rely on various sorts of credibility to fulfil their function. Reporting stuff that is true or at least credible is an advantage they make great use of vs controlled state media of the regime they are targeting. But I must still pay attention to the bias in areas such as framing, and their limited ability to operate on the ground in the country and resulting over-reliance on the diaspora and overtly politicised sources.

If the average time from infection to death is two weeks, then the virus could have infected a lot of people already, hope things can turn out well.

Its the same story in most places I suppose, the picture that emerges now tends to give us more clues as to what the reality was several weeks ago, and we are left to imagine how much further it has spread by now, or not spread. Tip of iceberg stuff again, but with no definitive guide as to the actual size of iceberg. No country has yet actually suspected, tested and publicly confirmed a community outbreak of sufficient size and spread for me to get past this series of 'iceberg tips emerging' and on to a clearer view of what lies below the water. Well, most other things we are learning about this virus point in the direction of the icebergs being rather large and unstoppable, but without the actual confirmed cases really exploding in number somewhere, there are definite limits to how much pointing below the water and shouting I should do.

 

[elbows]

Unfortunately I believe some of those theories must have gained traction recently. I've done a great job of utterly avoiding them myself, but I keep seeing mainstream responses to them, and I find it very easy to imagine what the theories are.

I should be more specific regarding what I mean by mainstream responses to these theories.

Experts fear false rumours could harm Chinese cooperation on coronavirus

World-leading specialists offer support to Chinese scientists amid ‘crackpot’ theories that virus was manufactured in a lab

www.theguardian.com

 

[Part-timah]

2,247 deaths so far. Be aware China cannot seem to stop cooking the books on this one.

 

[elbows]

South Korea cases jumped up again.

Of the 52 new cases, 41 are in Daegu, 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul, and the neighboring North Gyeongsang Province. Another three were reported in Seoul, the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said in a statement.

The spike of infections in Daegu and several cases in Seoul, where routes of infections are not immediately traceable, have prompted health officials to declare that COVID-19 has begun spreading locally.

S. Korea steps up containment efforts as virus cases jump to 208

South Korea said Friday the new coronavirus is in the initial stage of a full-blown outbreak, but stressed that it is still "manageable," although the number of infections has almost quadrupled in just three days. The country reported 104 new cases of the novel coronavirus as of 7 p.m. on...

www.koreaherald.com

 

[elbows]

Shitty

Coronavirus: Ukraine protesters attack buses carrying China evacuees

President Volodymyr Zelensky urged people to show solidarity and remember "we are all human".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Other countries may end up offering important clues about the scale of the outbreak in Iran. Looks like Canada has found a case whose recent travel history is Iran!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/coronavirus-bc-update-1.5470757

The latest patient is a woman in her 30s who lives in the Fraser Health region, according to provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry. She had recently returned from a trip to Iran and is now recovering at home.

Henry said officials were surprised when they learn that the woman had only visited Iran in her travels, and not China or neighbouring countries that have seen the bulk of COVID-19 infections.

"That could be an indicator that there's more widespread transmission. This is what we call an indicator or sentinel event," Henry told a news conference.

 

[sihhi]

South Korea cases jumped up again.

S. Korea steps up containment efforts as virus cases jump to 208

South Korea said Friday the new coronavirus is in the initial stage of a full-blown outbreak, but stressed that it is still "manageable," although the number of infections has almost quadrupled in just three days. The country reported 104 new cases of the novel coronavirus as of 7 p.m. on...

www.koreaherald.com

I don't understand this: Still, the authorities have kept the virus alert at the third-highest, or "orange," level, but the virus response will be carried out with an urgency appropriate to the "red" level, Park said.

I suspect this is the pressure of investors hoping not to 'disturb markets'

Korea now has 208 confirmed cases, plus an extra 544 members of the Shinchonji Daegu church showing symptoms. (Is this because church members frequently socialise together?) The Mayor's call for everyone to stay at home seems to make sense.

 

[elbows]

I dont know, they rewrote the article since I posted it so I still need to look into that, its news to me.

Certainly alert levels are not always free of politics and economics, although sometimes they avoid the highest level because they want to hold that in reserve in case the situation gets much worse. Otherwise they run out of mechanisms to raise fresh alarm/heightened responses.

 

[elbows]

The organisation might be the "Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran" the main professional organisation for doctors.
Radio Farda is Radio Liberty's Persian service funded by the US in the same way that BBC World Service Persian is funded by Britain.

There are other non-government journalist saying similar things I believe.

If the average time from infection to death is two weeks, then the virus could have infected a lot of people already, hope things can turn out well.

Now she describes him as a reformist politician.



As for what he actually said, it is rather similar to what she claims, although emphasis is a bit different so I will continue not to take her words at face value. Machine translation of farsi is not terrible, but like some other languages I mentioned recently, it can really mess up numbers, so dont take things like number or age of Iranian coronavirus cases, or dates, at face value if you get them via machine translation.

 

[elbows]

If anyone requires some actual science to refute some conspiracy theories, could do a lot worse than this (click the tweet to get the full thread):



I wont call the conspiracies batshit because actually bat shit in this context is more feasible than the theories!

 

[elbows]

Its weeks like this one that make me susceptible to prematurely declaring a pandemic. Mostly because I become less sure how premature this would actually be now. Probably a little, but I'm not sure what difference it even makes given that this eventuality is widely expected.

In Iran the outbreak is centred on the holy city of Qom, south of the capital Tehran, but health ministry official Minou Mohrez said the virus may already have spread to "all cities in Iran".

The case in Lebanon was a 45-year-old woman who had travelled from Qom, Lebanese Health Minister Hassan Hamad said.

Coronavirus: South Korea 'emergency' measures as infections increase

Two cities are declared "special care zones", as 100 new cases and a second death are confirmed.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

On that note, I see that a 20th Feb BBC general article on what Coronavirus is (that is too oversimplified in places for my tastes) chose to include this tweet from Feb 6th. I dont know if they've drawn attention to this sort of tweet before, if not then I am tempted to file it under 'starting to prepare people for this eventuality'.

Covid symptoms: What are they and how do I protect myself?

A new cough, fever and change in smell or taste are the key symptoms of coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[weltweit]

elbows you seem to have taken a slightly more pessimistic tone in your recent posts. If that is true then I tend to agree. I have been watching the slow spread and wondering where the next significant outbreak is going to be, because I think it is a when not an if question.

 

[elbows]

elbows you seem to have taken a slightly more pessimistic tone in your recent posts. If that is true then I tend to agree. I have been watching the slow spread and wondering where the next significant outbreak is going to be, because I think it is a when not an if question.

Well the last 8 days featured news from various countries which were the sort of thing I was always going to look for and use as pandemic indicators. But these were still early and incomplete indicators, so I'm not quite there yet, but yes I am quite a bit closer.

I've not been optimistic about stopping the spread since this thread first began. Most of my ongoing optimism relates to things like mild disease in many cases, what the eventual fatality rates will be and stuff like that. Not that I have a universally rosy picture in my mind on that front either, but there is no way I would discuss worst case scenarios of these aspects because that would be inappropriate fear mongering that I would only get into if evidence pointed consistently in that direction.

 

[elbows]

And although I entered that mode about 8 days ago, via Japan, its the last 24 hours that have further solidified my position. Not that I am reaching these conclusions on my own, eg:

 

[MrCurry]

Yep, and Iran had reported no cases up until yesterday, then suddenly a grand total of 2 (both of which were deaths!) and now grudging 5 (of which 4 have apparently died). Clearly massive under reporting and only admitting to cases they can no longer hide because the people have died. And how many other countries are wilfully under reporting to protect the tourist trade? My neighbours just flew off to Thailand for two weeks. Only 35 cases there apparently....

Still zero in Indonesia (believe that one?) nothing in many other countries, if you trust the numbers...

 

[sihhi]

And although I entered that mode about 8 days ago, via Japan, its the last 24 hours that have further solidified my position. Not that I am reaching these conclusions on my own, eg:

What's your take home message for what we should be doing?


Two points from Singapore with 4 in ICU situation critical

COVID-19 in Singapore—Experience and Critical Issues That Require Attention and Action

This Viewpoint discusses public health measures implemented in Singapore to manage potential COVID-19 infection based on the country’s experience with SARS in 2003 and reviews critical information gaps necessary to help manage the outbreak, such as viral shedding patterns and optimal timing of...

jamanetwork.com

Confirmed cases in Singapore have been observed to have higher viral loads as suggested by lower RT-PCR cycle threshold values (the lower the threshold level the greater the amount of target nucleic acid in the in the samples) during the early part of illness, which progressively decrease over time. However, there is a need for further evidence as to whether this corresponds with the degree of infectivity. Another important question is whether infected children and adolescents, who appear to have relatively mild clinical manifestations, are infectious and contribute significantly to spread.

Although published reports to date 4,7 have identified preexisting chronic noncommunicable diseases as being a risk factor for clinical deterioration, the experience to date in Singapore is that patients without significant comorbid conditions can also develop severe illness.

 

[elbows]

Yep, and Iran had reported no cases up until yesterday, then suddenly a grand total of 2 (both of which were deaths!) and now grudging 5 (of which 4 have apparently died). Clearly massive under reporting and only admitting to cases they can no longer hide because the people have died. And how many other countries are wilfully under reporting to protect the tourist trade? My neighbours just flew off to Thailand for two weeks. Only 35 cases there apparently....

Still zero in Indonesia (believe that one?) nothing in many other countries, if you trust the numbers...

Not just wilful underreporting, it was always expected that there would be extreme problems detecting majority of cases.

And weeks of delay between reality and us getting a picture of that reality is also to be expected everywhere, regardless of politics. Politics and certain regimes can make this much worse, but even without such stuff, picture always likely to lag well behind.

Indeed a big part of the reason I said that it would likely take February for me to get a sense of what was going on and whether this was a pandemic, is the inevitable delays in cases showing up and testing positive. Infections that were being seeded around the world in January have often not shows up till this last week, and probably many outbreaks have since happened that have not been detected yet. Current forms of broader surveillance may not pick some of these up until someone from a particular cluster becomes more seriously ill, that will be one of the sources of delay at the moment.

On that note, latest version of a study we have spoken of before is out:

Consistent with similar analyses [3], we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially leaving sources of human-to- human transmission unchecked (63% and 73% undetected based on comparisons with Singapore only and with Singapore, Finland, Nepal, Belgium, Sweden, India, Sri Lanka, and Canada, respectively). Undoubtedly, the exported cases vary in the severity of their clinical symptoms, making some cases more difficult to detect than others. However, some countries have detected significantly fewer than would have been expected based on the volume of flight passengers arriving from Wuhan City, China.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College---COVID-19---Relative-Sensitivity-International-Cases.pdf

The alarming news from countries like Iran and South Korea mostly came too late to feature in that version of the report.

 

[Part-timah]

A person in Canada has tested positive and they had recently travelled from Iran. This only adds to the idea that the cat is out of the bag in Iran.

 

[elbows]

What's your take home message for what we should be doing?

I have no particular wisdom on this.

Try to come to terms with the situation, follow the boring advice about hygiene etc, dont spend too much time every day thinking and reading about the topic if it causes too much mental anguish. Consider the possibility that if you have any travel and event plans for the coming months, they might be disrupted. Dont get carried away hoarding certain items, no panic buying or shelf stripping, but maybe consider slightly increasing the amount of spare supplies of certain things you keep at home.

 

[Idris2002]

This writer makes a case for the Wuhan quarantine being a success.

Once widely criticized, the Wuhan quarantine bought the world time to prepare for Covid-19

Early evidence is causing some public health experts to reconsider their initial scathing criticism of quarantines and travel restrictions intended to combat the novel coronavirus.

www.statnews.com

I'll wait and see what other people have to say first though.

 

[weltweit]

Personally I think it is very likely there has been considerable spread of the virus in other local Asian countries. I have thought that ever since our so called super spreader returned with it from Singapore.

It seemed both unlucky for him to have caught it there in the first place (an exhibition I believe) but also unlikely that he was the only one to have caught it there and then.

 

[andysays]

A person in Canada has tested positive and they had recently travelled from Iran. This only adds to the idea that the cat is out of the bag in Iran.

There's also a woman in Lebanon who had recently returned from Iran.

WHO saying they're concerned about number of cases with no clear link to existing cases.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Personally I think it is very likely there has been considerable spread of the virus in other local Asian countries. I have thought that ever since our so called super spreader returned with it from Singapore.

It seemed both unlucky for him to have caught it there in the first place (an exhibition I believe) but also unlikely that he was the only one to have caught it there and then.

It was a business conference, attended by several Chinese nationals, so not that surprising he caught it.

 

[weltweit]

It was a business conference, attended by several Chinese nationals, so not that surprising he caught it.

Indeed, but if he caught it there and then, so likely did many others.

 

[elbows]

This writer makes a case for the Wuhan quarantine being a success.

Hmmm, sort of. The article covers some other possibilities too, not all of the quotes in it are optimistic, although plenty are, and the article certainly ends on that note.

But success is mostly described in that article as having bought the world a few weeks extra preparation time. The stuff about it limiting the eventual size of the outbreak is more speculative. And in many avenues of detail it is simply too early to tell.

Its certainly true that human responses to outbreaks, that alter human behaviour on a large scale, are expected to have an effect on the reproductive rate of the virus, compared to the rate it was achieving before humans noticed and responded to the outbreak. And the response all over China has been massive and well beyond what we normally get to see in terms of human behavioural changes. eg look for stories about traffic levels in places like Beijing.

I expect this stuff to be studied for a long time to come, once subsequent chapters of the story are known.

Still not clear to what extent dramatic measures will be attempted everywhere else, some might well happen even if overall containment is given up on, and these will offer their own opportunities to see if any of this stuff works.

By the way, that writer doesnt seem to be very well regarded in some circles due to some prior form. Including unimpressed science writers with historical criticisms (not about this new article) such as "She's got a tendency to go charging off into fluff and that's what's happened here."

Sharon Begley - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[elbows]

But success is mostly described in that article as having bought the world a few weeks extra preparation time.

Ahh I should have pointed out that this is also another sign - increasingly public health officials are starting to reframe containment efforts as having been something that bought a bit of time. This takes over from a sentiment that, once upon a time, included the hope that it would prevent a pandemic.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention appears to have changed its mood music today (at least in its conference call with the press). So my prediction that I would not be too far out on a limb whenever I started to use the word pandemic seems to have been right.

U.S. health officials are preparing for the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has killed at least 2,249 people and sickened more than 76,700 worldwide, to become a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

“We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread.”

As for the subject of whether we will continue to see quite dramatic measures taken beyond China to contain the spread, even after the idea initial containment is gone, there are some signs of that from them too:

Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

“The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said.

CDC prepares for possibility coronavirus becomes a pandemic and businesses, schools need to be closed

The CDC pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been closed to contain the outbreak, saying the U.S. may need to do the same.

www.cnbc.com

 

[elbows]

Not had time to look at Italy today, but news appeared to get worse from there during the day:

• An outbreak of coronavirus in northern Italy worsened on Friday, with officials announcing 14 confirmed cases in Lombardy, while two cases were reported in the adjacent region of Veneto.
• Just hours after revealing that six people had come down with the virus in the first known cases of local transmission in Italy, officials said a further eight had tested positive for the disease, including five health workers.

Coronavirus outbreak grows in northern Italy, 16 cases reported in one day

An outbreak of coronavirus in northern Italy worsened on Friday, with officials announcing 14 confirmed cases in the wealthy region of Lombardy, while two cases were reported in the adjacent region of Veneto.

www.cnbc.com