Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[MrSki]

Melbourne's lockdown extended for another 7 days.

 

[elbows]

Since that article gives transmission details we dont tend to get in the UK, I'm going to borrow it to make a point on the UK thread, cheers for highlighting it.

 

[magneze]

Reproduction number across the UK now estimated at around 1.3, largely courtesy of B.1.617.2.

Chile seeing a surge in cases again despite having fully vaccinated a greater proportion of the population than the UK (and a comparable proportion single dosed). The established P.1 (20J/501Y.V3) being squeezed by some 'other' variant(s).
View attachment 271498

Why are the B.1.617.x variants swooping down from above in the first chart?

 

[2hats]

Why are the B.1.617.x variants swooping down from above in the first chart?

Base reproduction number for B.1.617.x estimated at somewhere between 5-7 (and originating from small numbers).

 

[platinumsage]

Chile seeing a surge in cases again despite having fully vaccinated a greater proportion of the population than the UK (and a comparable proportion single dosed). The established P.1 (20J/501Y.V3) being squeezed by some 'other' variant(s).
View attachment 271498

Chile using lots of Sinovac which they estimate to be only 3% effective with one dose (Covid-19: Chinese vaccines may need changes to improve efficacy, admits official).

 

[Badgers]

Thousands of Tokyo Olympics volunteers quit - NHK

Around 10,000 of the 80,000 volunteers who signed up to help at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games have quit, broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday, citing organisers.

www.reuters.com

 

[David Clapson]

The WHO has not assigned a Greek letter to the Vietnam variant. They are describing it as a mutation of B.1.617.2, i.e. Delta, formerly known as the India variant. What we know so far about the Vietnam variant in the UK

They've already used up ten Greek letters. Will they inevitably run out? Alpha to Delta are Variants of Concern, and Epsilon to Kappa are Variants of Interest. Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants

 

[two sheds]

That sounds a bit silly - what do they call the next variant of concern? Lambda means they're not in logical order.

 

[2hats]

Chile using lots of Sinovac which they estimate to be only 3% effective with one dose (Covid-19: Chinese vaccines may need changes to improve efficacy, admits official).

Over all 56.5% efficacy to infection at two weeks post second dose for the entire vaccination program (7% BNT162b2, 93% CoronaVac), with around 54% efficacy attributed to CoronaVac.

Vacunas contra el SARS-CoV2 muestran 56,5 por ciento de efectividad en la prevención de contagios - Universidad de Chile

Estudio liderado por académicos de la Universidad de Chile identificó además que una sola aplicación de la vacuna entrega una protección ante contagios de solo 3 por cie

www.uchile.cl

 

[kabbes]

Reproduction number across the UK now estimated at around 1.3, largely courtesy of B.1.617.2.

Chile seeing a surge in cases again despite having fully vaccinated a greater proportion of the population than the UK (and a comparable proportion single dosed). The established P.1 (20J/501Y.V3) being squeezed by some 'other' variant(s).
View attachment 271498

Geez, is that saying the reproduction rate for delta is over 1.5 everywhere? It looks to be about 1.7, in fact? If so, given its dominance, that’s the figure we should be concentrating on as it will be driving R in the coming weeks. And that’s frightening — when we had R=1.7 before, we rapidly ended up overwhelmed.

 

[Supine]

Geez, is that saying the reproduction rate for delta is over 1.5 everywhere? It looks to be about 1.7, in fact? If so, given its dominance, that’s the figure we should be concentrating on as it will be driving R in the coming weeks. And that’s frightening — when we had R=1.7 before, we rapidly ended up overwhelmed.

Let’s hope those vaccines unlock the relationship between cases and serious disease. With a low percentage of the population double dosed the gov need to be really careful at this point.

 

[weltweit]

Let’s hope those vaccines unlock the relationship between cases and serious disease. With a low percentage of the population double dosed the gov need to be really careful at this point.

I am not seeing any signs that gov is going to be careful.

 

[Supine]

I am not seeing any signs that gov is going to be careful.

Me neither, but you never know!

I think I’m overly optimistic having sat in the garden and enjoyed a bit too much sun.

 

[2hats]

Geez, is that saying the reproduction rate for delta is over 1.5 everywhere? It looks to be about 1.7, in fact? If so, given its dominance, that’s the figure we should be concentrating on as it will be driving R in the coming weeks. And that’s frightening — when we had R=1.7 before, we rapidly ended up overwhelmed.

A separate estimate (beware confounders) which might also suggest R0 in the region of 1.6-1.8 (1.4-2.0) for England.

 

[2hats]

And again, combining Sanger, COG-UK and T&T data: Re[B.1.617.2] ~1.55 (1.39-1.73).

 

[2hats]

And now, a brief distraction from our regular programme...

China reports human case of H10N3 bird flu, a possible first

The Chinese government says a 41-year-old man has contracted what might be the world’s first human case of the H10N3 strain of bird flu, but that the risk of large-scale spread is low.

apnews.com

 

[Totoro303]

Canada is outpacing U.S. for new COVID-19 cases per capita

Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada have skyrocketed amid the third wave of the pandemic and have now outpaced the United States per capita.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[kabbes]

And again, combining Sanger, COG-UK and T&T data: Re[B.1.617.2] ~1.55 (1.39-1.73).

Transmission advantage 75% — well more than the disaster scenario of 50% modelled by Warwick earlier this year that suggested a big third wave.

If we were still dealing with alpha, this suggests that our current rules would have been fine (R<1 in this model). But delta is a completely different beast. I’m seriously worried by this.

 

[prunus]

And again, combining Sanger, COG-UK and T&T data: Re[B.1.617.2] ~1.55 (1.39-1.73).

If I may interpret this using all my years of scientific training and experience: oh shit.

 

[teuchter]

Aside from the message it contains, that's a very nice graph.

 

[elbows]

Aside from the message it contains, that's a very nice graph.

Hopefully next time we see Johnson, someone will have stapled that graph to his forehead.

 

[elbows]

The fucking Daily Mail were wanking on about a 'Nepal variant' last night. I had a quick look around at the time and couldnt find anything. Now there is this:

 

[elbows]

Ah, one of the only reasons I looked into the Daily Mail thing was because it sounded like they'd gotten the info from someone in government.

I now see this:

There is also "a sort of Nepal mutation of the so-called Indian variant which has been detected, and we just don't know the potential for that to be a vaccine defeating mutation," Shapps says.

That quote is from the 16:22 update on the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57340860

 

[The39thStep]

Portugal has been removed from the green list .It was less than a week ago that 50 flights from the UK descended on Porto.

 

[weltweit]

Didn't want to go to Portugal anyhow ..

 

[weltweit]

Up to date list of traffic light countries anyone?

I thought it might be this : Portugal moved to amber list to guard public health against variants of concern following first traffic light review but it seems I was mistaken.

eta, It seems the list etc is here: Red, amber and green list rules for entering England

 

[bemused]

I spend every other week sitting in a room with terminal patients. One of the depressing things about COVID is the idea that people like me, my friends, family and elderly relatives should take one for the team and die.



Matt makes taxpayers money from this scheme Homepage - British Business Bank

If I had any political or social media influence I'd really like to ask the government why he deserves any of dying peoples taxes.

Awful human.

 

[Sue]

Fucking hell, that's absolutely disgusting.

 

[The39thStep]

Didn't want to go to Portugal anyhow ..

Wouldn't have let you in anyway

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

I spend every other week sitting in a room with terminal patients. One of the depressing things about COVID is the idea that people like me, my friends, family and elderly relatives should take one for the team and die.



Matt makes taxpayers money from this scheme Homepage - British Business Bank

If I had any political or social media influence I'd really like to ask the government why he deserves any of dying peoples taxes.

Awful human.

shame you can't easily leave a comment on thier website, not that I think the rest of them would care.