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[David Clapson]

China's getting so bellicose about Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc etc that it can't be long before they commit their huuuuge armed forces to something terrible. They have such a big appetite for conquest. I don't think they want to achieve it with a virus - there's much more pride to be savoured if they use lots of big ships and goose-stepping armies.

 

[Chairman Meow]

Melbourne back into a 7 day lockdown as outbreak grows to 26 cases.

Coronavirus Australia live update: Victoria announces seven-day ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown after Melbourne outbreak grows to 26 Covid cases

 

[Flavour]

Potential for it to become much more than that very quickly in Victoria given that normal life (including full capacity sports stadiums) has basically been back on for months

 

[Flavour]

They have such a big appetite for conquest.

Not sure about that. They'd have invaded Taiwan ages ago.

 

[Yossarian]

Not sure about that. They'd have invaded Taiwan ages ago.

They'd probably have invaded Taiwan many years ago if they'd thought they could do so without risking conflict with the US.

But while the lab leak theory is as valid as any other - and would certainly help explain why Beijing tried so hard to hush up information about the Wuhan outbreak in its early weeks - it definitely shouldn't be conflated with claims that China deliberately released the virus to cause havoc in the West - if they were going to do that, they'd have released it in the West, not in China, and definitely not in the vicinity of a Chinese lab carrying out research on coronaviruses.

 

[Chairman Meow]

Yep Melbourne might get much worse. It looks like there was at least one super-spreader, and the variant has spread extremely quickly. The contract tracers have identified 10,000 plus contacts so far, which is obviously a worry! It does seem to have caused a swift uptick in people getting vaccinated though, I tried to book mine today for two weeks ahead as I just had my flu jab, and the first available appointment near me was June 13th! The WA border is closed again to Victorians, I really hope they don't need another long lockdown like last time. And I hope the situation doesn't change here in WA, as we currently have only two cases, but over 15000 Victorians have flown in in the last few weeks, so who knows?

 

[retribution]

Yep Melbourne might get much worse. It looks like there was at least one super-spreader, and the variant has spread extremely quickly. The contract tracers have identified 10,000 plus contacts so far, which is obviously a worry! It does seem to have caused a swift uptick in people getting vaccinated though, I tried to book mine today for two weeks ahead as I just had my flu jab, and the first available appointment near me was June 13th! The WA border is closed again to Victorians, I really hope they don't need another long lockdown like last time. And I hope the situation doesn't change here in WA, as we currently have only two cases, but over 15000 Victorians have flown in in the last few weeks, so who knows?

Melburnian here. A few winter lockdowns always seemed inevitable given continued hotel quarantine failures - don't worry about it being WA's failure that got us this time

While this outbreak was allowed to continue for a few days before a lockdown, we're nowhere near the same situation as we were in before last year's long winter in terms of cases. I'm hopeful that this one shouldn't last much longer than a couple weeks or so.

Potential for it to become much more than that very quickly in Victoria given that normal life (including full capacity sports stadiums) has basically been back on for months

For sure. This was always a risk but the last few months have been glorious.

One of the impressive elements of Australia's awesome contact tracing system is that when there's an outbreak, "exposure sites" that positive cases visited are published. This is presented at a fine level of detail, so that people who were there can self-isolate. Our most recent outbreak involves this person, who it seems enjoyed quite a session:


It would be more amusing if Chapel St wasn't a packed bars/clubs area and if the person hadn't then gone to work and spread it around their coworkers.

I've got it easy as I can go back to WFH and have no kids to look after. Feeling sad for those it won't be so easy for.

 

[Chairman Meow]

Melburnian here. A few winter lockdowns always seemed inevitable given continued hotel quarantine failures - don't worry about it being WA's failure that got us this time

While this outbreak was allowed to continue for a few days before a lockdown, we're nowhere near the same situation as we were in before last year's long winter in terms of cases. I'm hopeful that this one shouldn't last much longer than a couple weeks or so.



For sure. This was always a risk but the last few months have been glorious.

One of the impressive elements of Australia's awesome contact tracing system is that when there's an outbreak, "exposure sites" that positive cases visited are published. This is presented at a fine level of detail, so that people who were there can self-isolate. Our most recent outbreak involves this person, who it seems enjoyed quite a session:

View attachment 270445
It would be more amusing if Chapel St wasn't a packed bars/clubs area and if the person hadn't then gone to work and spread it around their coworkers.

I've got it easy as I can go back to WFH and have no kids to look after. Feeling sad for those it won't be so easy for.

Good luck to you! I know my Melbourne mates are gutted right now (and shitting themselves, but they assure me they have ample toilet paper ). Lets hope the circuit breaker works.

 

[elbows]

But while the lab leak theory is as valid as any other - and would certainly help explain why Beijing tried so hard to hush up information about the Wuhan outbreak in its early weeks - it definitely shouldn't be conflated with claims that China deliberately released the virus to cause havoc in the West - if they were going to do that, they'd have released it in the West, not in China, and definitely not in the vicinity of a Chinese lab carrying out research on coronaviruses.

I note the probably dual-purpose of the Chinese line on this. From that BBC article I posted last night:

Beijing has previously suggested Covid-19 could have come from a US laboratory instead.

In its statement, the Chinese embassy said it supported a full investigation into "some secretive bases and biological laboratories all over the world".

So first we have the standard approach seen before, where they try to muddy the waters about the country of origin. But I cant help thinking that it is joined by a threat about what may be revealed about the shadowy world of bioweapons research if the USA insists on pursuing the lab line of inquiry!

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

They'd probably have invaded Taiwan many years ago if they'd thought they could do so without risking conflict with the US.

But while the lab leak theory is as valid as any other - and would certainly help explain why Beijing tried so hard to hush up information about the Wuhan outbreak in its early weeks - it definitely shouldn't be conflated with claims that China deliberately released the virus to cause havoc in the West - if they were going to do that, they'd have released it in the West, not in China, and definitely not in the vicinity of a Chinese lab carrying out research on coronaviruses.

double bluff and muddy the waters?

Spoiler: where is

my paranoia medicine

 

[brogdale]

Doesn't sound great...

 

[glitch hiker]

It's good to see British imperialism extends to our viral output

 

[Sue]

Doesn't sound great...

View attachment 270710

Especially given they were doing really well before. (Was just reading this in the Guardian):

Vietnam says new Covid variant is hybrid of India and UK strains

‘Very dangerous’ coronavirus variant is ‘more transmissible’ than previously known types

www.theguardian.com

 

[sideboob]

Japan doctors union warns games could lead to 'Tokyo ...​

https://www.japantimes.co.jp › 2021/05/27 › national › d...


The head of a doctors union in Japan warned Thursday that holding the Olympic Games in Tokyo this summer, with tens of thousands of people gathered from around the world, could lead to the development of a new “Olympic” strain of the coronavirus.


“All of the different mutated strains of the virus that exist in different places will be concentrated and gathering here in Tokyo. We cannot deny the possibility of even a new strain of the virus potentially emerging after the Olympics,” he told a news conference.

 

[weltweit]

Good point I would have thought. should the Olympics go ahead ?

 

[Supine]

Those Japanese doctors don’t know how viruses work if they think that!

 

[elbows]

Those Japanese doctors don’t know how viruses work if they think that!

My knowledge about recombination is rather limited and mostly pre-dates this pandemic. And I sometimes get the impression that there is disagreement between scientists about what constitutes proof of it and how big a deal it is. Do you have anything you can add to my knowledge of it?

Exclusive: Two variants have merged into heavily mutated coronavirus

The UK and California variants of coronavirus appear to have combined into a heavily mutated hybrid, sparking concern that we may be entering a new phase of the covid-19 pandemic

www.newscientist.com

 

[bimble]

This is a good bit of writing. Does suggest that the Kumbh (millions of people crammed together for days then travelling back home all over the country) may have played a significant part in the disaster that followed.

The only real new info in the piece is that government higher-ups ordered local local track and trace officials to stop looking at this, stop trying to locate attendees and get them to test & quarantine, because they did not want it discussed, that the PM himself had urged people to attend the biggest superspreader event in the world.

Kumbh Mela: how a superspreader festival seeded Covid across India

Millions attended Kumbh Mela as India’s second coronavirus wave began

www.theguardian.com

 

[sparkybird]

This is a good bit of writing. Does suggest that the Kumbh (millions of people crammed together for days then travelling back home all over the country) may have played a significant part in the disaster that followed.

The only real new info in the piece is that government higher-ups ordered local local track and trace officials to stop looking at this, stop trying to locate attendees and get them to test & quarantine, because they did not want it discussed, that the PM himself had urged people to attend the biggest superspreader event in the world.

Kumbh Mela: how a superspreader festival seeded Covid across India

Millions attended Kumbh Mela as India’s second coronavirus wave began

www.theguardian.com

Thanks for sharing that. I've friends in Kerala, they are now back in another strict lockdown.
Sad to see that the only person in the article who really 'believed' in the existence of covid was a farmer and his guilt in bringing it back to the village weighs heavy.

 

[2hats]

Especially given they were doing really well before. (Was just reading this in the Guardian):

Vietnam says new Covid variant is hybrid of India and UK strains

‘Very dangerous’ coronavirus variant is ‘more transmissible’ than previously known types

www.theguardian.com

Sounds like it isn't a new variant and simply shares a short deleted sequence in the spike, which is something seen repeatedly across numerous variant types.

e2a: Confirmed by the deputy director of the Vietnam Central Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology - just the Y144 deletion in spike (seen in local B.1.617.2 samples, in common with B.1.1.7).

 

[elbows]

I am entertained by the nature of the backpedaling and would recommend reading articles like this one in order to learn about mainstream limitations and how they cope with reality checks later. Also note the way respectable expert people who kept an open mind about the lab possibilities all along were previously treated, how 'close ranks' stuff was used. That happened in a similar way with issues of children spreading the virus too. 'Fuck mainstream doublethink and see it for what it is' is a reasonable technique for trying to bypass that shit at the early, sensitive stages, an approach that has served me reasonably well over the years. Narrow comfort zones inevitably lead to dangerous blindspots.

In March last year, it was widely agreed by everybody sensible, me included, that talk of the pandemic originating in a laboratory was pseudoscientific nonsense almost on a par with UFOs and the Loch Ness monster.

The Covid lab leak theory is looking increasingly plausible

In March last year, it was widely agreed by everybody sensible, me included, that talk of the pandemic originating in a laboratory was pseudoscientific nonsense almost on a par with UFOs and the Loch Ness monster. My own reasoning was that Mother Nature is a better genetic engineer than we will...

www.spectator.co.uk

I suppose I should be delighted that I am not considered to be sensible by these people. I note that they have settled on conflations between 'man made' and 'natural but still came via a lab accident' as part of their excuse. Still inadequate and too narrow, but unsurprising that this is where the acceptable boundaries are now placed. They've picked up on early 2000's SARS lab accidents. I still dont see journalists noticing that a late 1970s 'flu pandemic of the young' is suspected to have been caused by a lab accident. Elsewhere I have seen signs that the 'gain of function' debate is back as a result of this shifting picture, but I havent had time to read a recent FT article where this was mentioned, I just saw it during a news search online.

 

[elbows]

Also be aware that debate about the merits and risks of 'gain of function' experiments are poisoned because some experts who should know better are driven by vested interest, or at best a sense of priorities that lead to imbalanced risk assessments.

 

[elbows]

Here is the FT piece on gain of function stuff:

Covid-19 lab-leak theory puts Wuhan research in spotlight

‘Gain of function’ experiments that make viruses more deadly should be more tightly controlled, say some scientists

www.ft.com

The claim that this stuff is 'a corner of science that previously operated far from public view' is a bit of a stretch given that the US pause of such things in 2014 was in the news at the time and led to debate at the time. And enough people noticed this aspect of the Wuhan labs work last year that the likes of Nature felt the need to put tedious disclaimers at the top of a number of pre-pandemic articles on the subject.

 

[elbows]

I note the interesting wording at the end of the article too.

Milton Leitenberg, an expert in biological weapons at the University of Maryland, said: “Whatever we classify this work as, it should not have been taking place at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

 

[elbows]

I will try using the new names in future, hope they catch on.

Covid: WHO renames UK and other variants with Greek letters

The variant first detected in the UK becomes Alpha, with South Africa, Brazil and India also renamed.

www.bbc.co.uk

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants

All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, change over time. Most changes have little to no impact on the virus’ properties. However, some changes may affect the virus’s properties, such as how easily it spreads, the associated disease severity, or the performance of...

www.who.int

 

[two sheds]

"The UK variant for instance is labelled as Alpha, the South African Beta, and the Indian as Delta."

Gamma? Ah Brazil, says in second article

Much much better - I get lost with all the numbers.letters.numbers.lettersagain.

 

[Anju]

Full on response from China after first community outbreak of the Indian variant.

"Guangdong province had been reporting daily single figures of local cases, including asymptomatic cases, for more than a week, until the case load suddenly jumped to 23 on Monday, including three asymptomatic cases, and 11 on Tuesday. Most of Guandong’s cases are in the city of Guangzhou, with some in nearby Foshan, which has a population of 7.2 million."

"On Sunday all 15.3 million Guangzhou residents were barred from leaving via bus, air or train without a green code on the health management app and a negative Covid test taken in the preceding 72 hours."

://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/china-locks-down-part-of-guangzhou-amid-outbreak-of-indian-covid-variant?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

 

[editor]

Here's something for the anti-vaxx 'researchers' to mull over Brazil Covid: Deaths plunge after town's adults vaccinated

 

[editor]

I am entertained by the nature of the backpedaling and would recommend reading articles like this one in order to learn about mainstream limitations and how they cope with reality checks later. Also note the way respectable expert people who kept an open mind about the lab possibilities all along were previously treated, how 'close ranks' stuff was used. That happened in a similar way with issues of children spreading the virus too. 'Fuck mainstream doublethink and see it for what it is' is a reasonable technique for trying to bypass that shit at the early, sensitive stages, an approach that has served me reasonably well over the years. Narrow comfort zones inevitably lead to dangerous blindspots.

The Covid lab leak theory is looking increasingly plausible

In March last year, it was widely agreed by everybody sensible, me included, that talk of the pandemic originating in a laboratory was pseudoscientific nonsense almost on a par with UFOs and the Loch Ness monster. My own reasoning was that Mother Nature is a better genetic engineer than we will...

www.spectator.co.uk

I suppose I should be delighted that I am not considered to be sensible by these people. I note that they have settled on conflations between 'man made' and 'natural but still came via a lab accident' as part of their excuse. Still inadequate and too narrow, but unsurprising that this is where the acceptable boundaries are now placed. They've picked up on early 2000's SARS lab accidents. I still dont see journalists noticing that a late 1970s 'flu pandemic of the young' is suspected to have been caused by a lab accident. Elsewhere I have seen signs that the 'gain of function' debate is back as a result of this shifting picture, but I havent had time to read a recent FT article where this was mentioned, I just saw it during a news search online.

You can read it here:

outline.com

 

[2hats]

Reproduction number across the UK now estimated at around 1.3, largely courtesy of B.1.617.2.

Chile seeing a surge in cases again despite having fully vaccinated a greater proportion of the population than the UK (and a comparable proportion single dosed). The established P.1 (20J/501Y.V3) being squeezed by some 'other' variant(s).