Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[bimble]

India’s only had 3 confirmed cases so far as I can see. Less than Uk then. Out of a population of some 1.4 billion. Not sure how to calculate risk but , I’m not that unlucky.

 

[lizzieloo]

The people are in quarantine. The UK is far better prepared and resourced than India. I’m not telling bimble what to do. I’m saying get informed so you are better aware of the risks you’ll need to accept.

The people in India could be in quarantine too for all you know, in fact they certainly will be as confirmed cases.

I get that you're not telling anyone what to do, you are fear mongering though.

 

[Yossarian]

I don't think it's fear-mongering - the population density in Indian cities is almost 10 times what it is in Milton Keynes, so there's a much higher chance of being infected by a stranger. This isn't a good time to visit a big Asian city, especially not one where citizens aren't taking precautions like wearing face masks to stop themselves infecting others if they are sick.

If I had a trip to India planned and I really wanted to go, I would probably still go, but I would keep my time wandering around the city to a minimum, and I would reconsider the trip if I lived with an elderly relative.

 

[Shechemite]

Better to stay away from Milton Keynes though.

 

[weltweit]

The BBC is reporting that the death toll in hubei is now 780 which exceeds the total death toll from SARS.

And that does not include the death toll from other parts of China and around the world.

It is pretty grim news.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky reporting a total of 813 deaths now, all but two in China.

Also a Brit in Spain is another confirmed case, 3 others tested were OK.

 

[Yossarian]

This writer makes a good case against "whataboutism" with the flu.

When it comes to disease—and particularly infectious ones—it’s best to avoid pitting pathogens against one another in a sort of “mortality rate Olympics”.

Coronavirus Is Bad. Comparing It to the Flu Is Worse

The whataboutism of infectious disease is as dangerous as it is hackneyed.

www.wired.com

 

[Supine]

Long read but worth it. An interview with a doctor at the frontline.

Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU

WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[sihhi]

There's a fourth infected patient, contact of patient 3 from France:

CMO confirms fourth case of coronavirus in England

Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty statement about a new case of novel coronavirus in England.

www.gov.uk

Plus a strange case in Shenzhen:

深圳新增确诊的15个病例，个案如下！（2月8日）

不要聚集

mp.weixin.qq.com

病例348
60岁女性患者，常住于湖北宜昌。1月19日前往武汉，20日从武汉出发到伦敦旅游，31日从伦敦前往广州，2月2日到深圳。26日发病，2月5日入院

60 year old woman patient, usually lives in Yichang, Hubei. 19 Jan went to Wuhan, Hubei. 20 Jan from Wuhan set off for London. 31 Jan went from London to Guangzhou, Guangdong. 2 Feb to Sheznzhen, Guangdong. Got sick on Jan 26, entered hospital on Feb 5.


The government advice is the same: Coronavirus: latest information and advice

 

[MrCurry]

Long read but worth it. An interview with a doctor at the frontline.

Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU

WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Good article. An extract here of what I found the most interesting passage:

I've observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don't. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.

But some patients who enter the second week will suddenly get worse. At this stage, people should go to the hospital. The elderly with underlying conditions may develop complications; some may need machine-assisted respiration. When the body's other organs start to fail, that's when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.

The third week determines whether critical illness leads to death. Some in critical condition who receive treatment can raise their level of lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell, and see an improvement in their immune systems, and have been brought back, so to speak. But those whose lymphocyte numbers continue to decline, those whose immune systems are destroyed in the end, experience multiple organ failure and die.

For most, the illness is over in two weeks, whereas for those for whom the illness becomes severe, if they can survive three weeks, they're good. Those that can't will die in three weeks.

 

[sihhi]

Situation in Zambia:

'We're definitely not prepared': Africa braces for new virus

LUSAKA, Zambia (AP) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak...

news4sanantonio.com

Several African nations such as Ghana, South Africa and Ethiopia have announced their precautions, including updates on negative test results for suspected cases and demonstrations of surveillance and quarantine capabilities. Ethiopian Airlines, however, faces questions by some in Africa about why it continues to operate more than 30 China flights a week while other African airlines have suspended theirs.

Adding to the difficulties in diagnosing the new virus are numerous diseases in Africa with symptoms that include fever or coughing or both.

It's impossible to diagnose the new virus by symptoms alone, Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman said, adding that there is a "significant likelihood" that the virus will be confirmed in Africa. And there is a risk that "panic overtakes good public health and good science."

...

"We are now practicing hygiene, even in the mines," said the Kitwe-based president of the Mine Workers Union of Zambia, Joseph Chewe. "Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous."

 

[Ponyutd]

The next lot are going to Milton Keynes. Haven't they suffered enough?

 

[extra dry]

Situation in Zambia:

'We're definitely not prepared': Africa braces for new virus

LUSAKA, Zambia (AP) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak...

news4sanantonio.com

Several African nations such as Ghana, South Africa and Ethiopia have announced their precautions, including updates on negative test results for suspected cases and demonstrations of surveillance and quarantine capabilities. Ethiopian Airlines, however, faces questions by some in Africa about why it continues to operate more than 30 China flights a week while other African airlines have suspended theirs.

Adding to the difficulties in diagnosing the new virus are numerous diseases in Africa with symptoms that include fever or coughing or both.

It's impossible to diagnose the new virus by symptoms alone, Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman said, adding that there is a "significant likelihood" that the virus will be confirmed in Africa. And there is a risk that "panic overtakes good public health and good science."

...

"We are now practicing hygiene, even in the mines," said the Kitwe-based president of the Mine Workers Union of Zambia, Joseph Chewe. "Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous."

This book of revelations stuff, war, fires, floods, plauges, death

 

[elbows]

Indonesia is also causing concerns because models based on traffic patterns etc tend to suggest they should have had some cases, but none have been detected.

 

[Supine]

Indonesia is also causing concerns because models based on traffic patterns etc tend to suggest they should have had some cases, but none have been detected.

I was thinking that about Bali in particular. It has loads of Chinese tourists...

 

[extra dry]

Denosovan DNA?
OR
Aliens
Or

Non have been reported as such

 

[Part-timah]

I’m not a health care professional but risk is what i deal with as a day job. Humans are incredibly bad at intuitively judging risk appropriately. We have so many biases in our overworked brains. To judge risk any where near accurately is a slog. You have to do the hard yards, the analysis, the calculations and tables for even relatively simple scenarios. What I’m saying is you can’t “feel” risk and expect it to be reliable, especially for things you have no experience of. The posters here who have knowledge and experience aren’t doom mongers, the information here has been delivered in a sober way. There is a wide margin of error with predictions but the tone and message of those with the background have made more assertive warnings in the last few days.

 

[bimble]

That is true. Assessing risk on gut feeling is not a good method.
But whilst worrying about corovirus in India a giant tree crashed down sort of trapping me in my house and cutting phone & electric. Which is an odd day.

 

[Part-timah]

That is true. Assessing risk on gut feeling is not a good method.
But whilst worrying about corovirus in India a giant tree crashed down sort of trapping me in my house and cutting phone & electric. Which is an odd day.

A useful trick i sometimes use to deal with uncertainties that may cause worries and anxiety is to write them down. Get them out of your head, recognise them. I find this buys a bit of relief and starts the process of assessing risk. Even informally starting here can help structure vague anxieties.

Don’t worry, read up on the situation, assess your concerns and then you can feel more confident with whatever you choose.

 

[elbows]

There is a wide margin of error with predictions but the tone and message of those with the background have made more assertive warnings in the last few days.

Yeah, containment optimism was on the decrease by the time this thread was created, and by about 2 weeks ago most of the experts I read on twitter etc didnt have much faith left that containment would be successful. Pretty much everything learnt since then continues to point in that direction, and so we are seeing more changes to the sentiments expressed and language used. This change in message will not be completed until there is more ongoing transmission in other countries, and I dont know exactly when to expect that to be detected and announced. Fairly soon I would think, but sometimes these things take a week or two longer than I'd anticipated.

 

[MrCurry]

Do we know what the prognosis for those who have recovered from this virus is? Whether there are lasting effects such as lung damage, etc. or if surviving this thing is a ticket back to life as normal?

I wonder how immune to it people are once recovered?

 

[Supine]

Do we know what the prognosis for those who have recovered from this virus is? Whether there are lasting effects such as lung damage, etc. or if surviving this thing is a ticket back to life as normal?

I wonder how immune to it people are once recovered?

depends on the individuals immune system but most would recover. They'd only catch it again if it mutated and they were unlucky.

 

[extra dry]

Risk


Of

Using

Paragraphs?

 

[elbows]

depends on the individuals immune system but most would recover. They'd only catch it again if it mutated and they were unlucky.

Apparently immunity against other coronaviruses only lasts a year or two, but I've been rather underwhelmed by the degree of historical study into coronaviruses compared to things like flu. But here is one example of this being mentioned in 1996 anyway:

Coronaviruses - Medical Microbiology - NCBI Bookshelf

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Host Defenses
The appearance of antibody in serum and nasal secretions is followed by resolution of the infection. Immunity wanes within a year or two.
Epidemiology
Incidence peaks in the winter, taking the form of local epidemics lasting a few weeks or months. The same serotype may return to an area after several years.

The epidemiology of coronavirus colds has been little studied. Waves of infection pass through communities during the winter months, and often cause small outbreaks in families, schools, etc. (Fig. 60-2). Immunity does not persist, and subjects may be re-infected, sometimes within a year. The pattern thus differs from that of rhinovirus infections, which peak in the fall and spring and generally elicit long-lasting immunity. About one in five colds is due to coronaviruses.

 

[elbows]

Carrying on with that same point, I havent yet found anything that indicates that the reasons for reinfection with the same strain of endemic coronavirus are well understood. I mostly just find references to the phenomenon being observed, such as:

Interestingly, patient 3 was diagnosed as CoV-OC43 positive again 20 months after the infection described above (data not shown), which confirms the widespread prevalence, the possibility of reinfection and the apparent lack of protecting immunity against the same subtype of CoV

(from , Europe PMC and note that CoV-OC43 is one of the cold-causing coronaviruses that has been widespread in humans for a very long time indeed)

edit - oh and this one. I dont know if 4 months is accurate, or the basis for the claim, or whether any of this stuff has been superseded by more recent knowledge. Nor do we know if the same thing will apply to this new coronavirus.

Reinfection of individuals with the same human coronavirus serotype often occurs within 4 months of the first infection, suggesting that homologous antibodies are protective for only 4 months. Although many people have high antibody levels after infection, reinfection with the same or related strains is common.

Coronaviruses, Coronavirus Infections

This page contains notes viruses that cause the common cold

virology-online.com

And one more edit - a final example, same kind of story with another common human coronavirus, 229E:

(PDF) Human Coronaviruses 229E and NL63: Close Yet Still So Far

PDF | HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E are two of the four human coronaviruses that circulate worldwide. These two viruses are unique in their relationship... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

www.researchgate.net

Studies with HCoV-229E infection of volunteers have shown that reinfection with common cold symptoms occurs when the level of antibodies directed against the virus is low. The decrease in titers of HCoV-229E antibodies is observed as soon as 1 year after infection, which indicates that every individual probably encounters numerous infections by HCoV-229E during a lifetime.

The 'reinfection with common cold symptoms' bit also relates to other stuff said in that one, painting a picture where people mostly get it as young children, and numerous subsequent reinfections later on tend to be milder, 'just a cold' type stuff.

With this latter point in mind, as well as considering whether people can be made ill by this new coronavirus more than once, there will be the question of whether subsequent infections are less severe. Not sure there will be any hard and fast rules discovered with this one, given that we dont really understand why outcomes to first infection vary so much, let alone subsequent ones.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The next lot are going to Milton Keynes. Haven't they suffered enough?

would rather take my chances in Wuhan, tbf.

 

[weltweit]

About the hospitals, a bit promotional, but I think interesting.

 

[stavros]

would rather take my chances in Wuhan, tbf.

Wuhan Clan ain't nuthin' ta fuck wit'.

 

[elbows]

A study that looks at 1,099 patients has some interesting bits and bobs in it.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1.full.pdf

For example there seem to be less smokers and former smokers than I might have expected. And as with some previous reports, the idea that most people who end up in hospital from it have other underlying conditions or are old is misleading, or at least rather overstated.

 

[Supine]

More data on infection rates etc. As the authors acknowledge the numbers are changing rapidly as data is gathered.

COVID-19

Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the deve...

www.imperial.ac.uk