The people are in quarantine. The UK is far better prepared and resourced than India. I’m not telling bimble what to do. I’m saying get informed so you are better aware of the risks you’ll need to accept.
When it comes to disease—and particularly infectious ones—it’s best to avoid pitting pathogens against one another in a sort of “mortality rate Olympics”.
Good article. An extract here of what I found the most interesting passage:Long read but worth it. An interview with a doctor at the frontline.
Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU
WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors. Read more at straitstimes.com.www.straitstimes.com
I've observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don't. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.
But some patients who enter the second week will suddenly get worse. At this stage, people should go to the hospital. The elderly with underlying conditions may develop complications; some may need machine-assisted respiration. When the body's other organs start to fail, that's when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.
The third week determines whether critical illness leads to death. Some in critical condition who receive treatment can raise their level of lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell, and see an improvement in their immune systems, and have been brought back, so to speak. But those whose lymphocyte numbers continue to decline, those whose immune systems are destroyed in the end, experience multiple organ failure and die.
For most, the illness is over in two weeks, whereas for those for whom the illness becomes severe, if they can survive three weeks, they're good. Those that can't will die in three weeks.
This book of revelations stuff, war, fires, floods, plauges, deathSituation in Zambia:
'We're definitely not prepared': Africa braces for new virus
LUSAKA, Zambia (AP) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak...news4sanantonio.com
Several African nations such as Ghana, South Africa and Ethiopia have announced their precautions, including updates on negative test results for suspected cases and demonstrations of surveillance and quarantine capabilities. Ethiopian Airlines, however, faces questions by some in Africa about why it continues to operate more than 30 China flights a week while other African airlines have suspended theirs.
Adding to the difficulties in diagnosing the new virus are numerous diseases in Africa with symptoms that include fever or coughing or both.
It's impossible to diagnose the new virus by symptoms alone, Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman said, adding that there is a "significant likelihood" that the virus will be confirmed in Africa. And there is a risk that "panic overtakes good public health and good science."
...
"We are now practicing hygiene, even in the mines," said the Kitwe-based president of the Mine Workers Union of Zambia, Joseph Chewe. "Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous."
Indonesia is also causing concerns because models based on traffic patterns etc tend to suggest they should have had some cases, but none have been detected.
That is true. Assessing risk on gut feeling is not a good method.
But whilst worrying about corovirus in India a giant tree crashed down sort of trapping me in my house and cutting phone & electric. Which is an odd day.
There is a wide margin of error with predictions but the tone and message of those with the background have made more assertive warnings in the last few days.
Do we know what the prognosis for those who have recovered from this virus is? Whether there are lasting effects such as lung damage, etc. or if surviving this thing is a ticket back to life as normal?
I wonder how immune to it people are once recovered?
depends on the individuals immune system but most would recover. They'd only catch it again if it mutated and they were unlucky.
Host Defenses
The appearance of antibody in serum and nasal secretions is followed by resolution of the infection. Immunity wanes within a year or two.
Epidemiology
Incidence peaks in the winter, taking the form of local epidemics lasting a few weeks or months. The same serotype may return to an area after several years.
The epidemiology of coronavirus colds has been little studied. Waves of infection pass through communities during the winter months, and often cause small outbreaks in families, schools, etc. (Fig. 60-2). Immunity does not persist, and subjects may be re-infected, sometimes within a year. The pattern thus differs from that of rhinovirus infections, which peak in the fall and spring and generally elicit long-lasting immunity. About one in five colds is due to coronaviruses.
Interestingly, patient 3 was diagnosed as CoV-OC43 positive again 20 months after the infection described above (data not shown), which confirms the widespread prevalence, the possibility of reinfection and the apparent lack of protecting immunity against the same subtype of CoV
Reinfection of individuals with the same human coronavirus serotype often occurs within 4 months of the first infection, suggesting that homologous antibodies are protective for only 4 months. Although many people have high antibody levels after infection, reinfection with the same or related strains is common.
Studies with HCoV-229E infection of volunteers have shown that reinfection with common cold symptoms occurs when the level of antibodies directed against the virus is low. The decrease in titers of HCoV-229E antibodies is observed as soon as 1 year after infection, which indicates that every individual probably encounters numerous infections by HCoV-229E during a lifetime.
The next lot are going to Milton Keynes. Haven't they suffered enough?
would rather take my chances in Wuhan, tbf.