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[SpookyFrank]

Is it too optimistic to suggest that the China line on this “confirmed cases” graph from the John Hopkins tracker page is flattening out, rather than accelerating upwards into a parabola? I wonder how much faith we can put in these figures, or whether the flattening out reflects limits on the testing capacity available, rather than a levelling out of the rate of infection?

View attachment 197884

Yes the linear growth seen here looks more like the testing process itself has hit maximum capacity and that rather than the actual number of cases is the limiting factor. You'd expect to see exponential growth in cases at this stage, and that's probably what's actually happening.

 

[elbows]

Another study looking at hospitalised patients in Wuhan, this time 138 of them.

Much of it is stuff we already seen in previous reports of this type, but there is more detail in certain areas, such as:

Of the 138 patients, 57 (41.3%) were presumed to have been infected in hospital, including 17 patients (12.3%) who were already hospitalized for other reasons and 40 health care workers (29%)

Clinical Characteristics of Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China

This single-center case series describes the demographics, symptoms, laboratory and imaging findings, treatment, and clinical course of 138 patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China, highlighting presumed human-to-human...

jamanetwork.com

 

[Shechemite]

I’ve had a bastard of a cold all week.

Think of me kindly sihhi. I go to a better place

 

[elbows]

By the way I dont know if the term NCIP they used is an early indication of what the official name is going to be (BBC mentioned earlier in the week that a decision on this was close).

I've certainly seem NCP used elsewhere very recently by China:



National Car Parks will probably be hoping the official name does have an I in it. And its not clear whether China have started using this name because the international body has already told them this is the name they have settled on, or whether its a unilateral decision by China.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

National Car Parks will probably be hoping the official name does have an I in it. And its not clear whether China have started using this name because the international body has already told them this is the name they have settled on, or whether its a unilateral decision by China.

View attachment 197907

Shades of

 

[Sprocket.]

I truly hope that this virus is stopped and eradicated soon. The devastation of a full blown pandemic lasts for generations. My dad lost his dad and his four sisters to the 1919 ‘Spanish’ pandemic.

 

[elbows]

Yes the linear growth seen here looks more like the testing process itself has hit maximum capacity and that rather than the actual number of cases is the limiting factor. You'd expect to see exponential growth in cases at this stage, and that's probably what's actually happening.

When I read things like the following, I cant say I place too much faith in the official statistics for deaths either.

A Japanese man taken to hospital with pneumonia in Wuhan died after suffering flu-like symptoms consistent with the coronavirus, Japan’s foreign ministry said. The man in his 60s was suspected of having been infected with the coronavirus but due to difficulties in diagnosing the disease the cause of death was given as viral pneumonia, the ministry said, citing Chinese medical authorities.

Coronavirus: two deaths in Wuhan thought to be first of foreign nationals

US citizen, 60, died of virus, while Japan says citizen who died had symptoms of virus

www.theguardian.com

If this applied to the UK then I would start looking at several broader mortality indicators for clues, but I dont know if that data is available in China, especially right now, and if it is then I dont know where to look, and I'm not sure how much faith I'd have in its accuracy.

 

[elbows]

I suppose the “confirmed cases” are always going to be somewhat lower than the actual number of infections, since it takes two weeks after infection for the symptoms to show, then some further time (days?) for the person to get medical attention, tested and get a test result back. So in reality, even if those confirmed cases statistics were accurate, they would reflect the number of infections which happened some 2-3 weeks ago.

Your numbers of 150-200k don’t look too unrealistic then.

I've seen estimates such as 50k cases per day in China being plausible at the moment.

eg:



I havent watched the interview yet, I will, I'm mostly expecting the latest version of the themes that have been discussed by such professionals for weeks now, rather than some brand new revelations.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

An Post, is no longer handling anything posted from China.

 

[weltweit]

The world health organisation is encouraging people to stick to the facts and to avoid conspiracy theories. In particular they mentioned Russia where there are ridiculous conspiracy theories on TV at the moment.

I agree wholeheartedly better to stick with the facts but I wonder where that means we go for them. Perhaps the WHO publish the fact themselves?

 

[bimble]

yep. I've been on WHO website, its basically like flu far as i can see (might be really serious if you're already immune compriomised / vulnerable, otherwise its .. like flu). But everyone's scared because its new and also its not as 'far away' as ebola.
Basic advice: Don't buy a mask, just wash your hands well. Stay away from caughing feverish people. Wash you hands again. Thats it.
Local supermarket here has sold out of anti bacterial washes which is a bit with this being a virus .

 

[Baronage-Phase]

There are 3 possible cases in the local hospital.
I'll be in and out of that hospital over the next few days with my mum. I've given her a mask but she's all "don't be daft". Thing is she will be in a ward with up to 9 other patients.
I've a mask sorted for myself too but I am thinking if I wear it I will freak others out.
Shit.

 

[bimble]

if you wear one read up on how to wear it properly & safely . From what I've read its not a great idea.

Can wearing a face mask protect you from the new coronavirus?

If you're sick with COVID-19 or caring for someone who is, you should wear a face mask.

www.livescience.com

What are the latest rules for face coverings and masks?

Rules around face coverings are easing across the UK but they are still required in some settings.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[weltweit]

There are 3 possible cases in the local hospital.
I'll be in and out of that hospital over the next few days with my mum. I've given her a mask but she's all "don't be daft". Thing is she will be in a ward with up to 9 other patients.
I've a mask sorted for myself too but I am thinking if I wear it I will freak others out.
Shit.

Well you have a point, because it is in hospitals where the ill people are. But not just Corona virus but all sorts of other things too.

 

[weltweit]

I've just been on the world health organization's website and it isn't very easy to navigate to find these facts that they are are proposing we use.

 

[Supine]

I've just been on the world health organization's website and it isn't very easy to navigate to find these facts that they are are proposing we use.

I suspect they want journalist to use facts rather than the public

 

[elbows]

I've just been on the world health organization's website and it isn't very easy to navigate to find these facts that they are are proposing we use.

I'd go crazy if I only used the WHO as a source of info. Thats not really what they are saying, although I'm sure they would be delighted if they were always allowed to set the tone and mood.

I'm usually happy to both defend and criticise the WHO, and so far this outbreak is no exception.

Today I am taking issue with the following, which is from the BBC article about the WHO mentioning trolls and conspiracy theories.

Dr Tedros said that the virus is still concentrated in Hubei, and that over the last four days there appeared to have been a slight stabilisation in the number of cases.

However, he said it was still too early to say whether or not the virus has plateaued, as epidemics can often slow down before accelerating again.

But he added that the slow-down was "an opportunity" for them to work to contain the virus.

Coronavirus: WHO chief warns against 'trolls and conspiracy theories'

The WHO's director general says they are trying to tackle misinformation around the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Well, maybe, I dont completely rule this out I suppose. But it seems more likely to be spin to me, since most other sources of comment on the 'slight stabilisation in the number of cases' have urged much caution in interpreting recent numbers in that way at all. So not just a question of whether it might speed up again, but whether it has even really slowed down.

So, is there really 'an opportunity', or is the opportunity just one of being able to sound more optimistic for a while?

Obviously looking properly sort of thing, eg considering whether testing capacity has limited the numbers, has been brought up by people in this thread recently too.

So yeah, sources well beyond the WHO are required, because the WHO is constrained by other considerations that at the very least affect its tone.

 

[elbows]

They are more useful when they draw attention to stuff such as terrible global medical equipment shortages that threaten routine healthcare.

WHO warns of global shortage of face masks and protective suits

Fight against coronavirus being hampered by stockpiling of equipment, says body’s chief

www.theguardian.com

 

[Part-timah]

yep. I've been on WHO website, its basically like flu far as i can see (might be really serious if you're already immune compriomised / vulnerable, otherwise its .. like flu). But everyone's scared because its new and also its not as 'far away' as ebola.
Basic advice: Don't buy a mask, just wash your hands well. Stay away from caughing feverish people. Wash you hands again. Thats it.
Local supermarket here has sold out of anti bacterial washes which is a bit with this being a virus .

It’s much worse than flu due to being a novel virus.

 

[bimble]

I dunno. Yeah it novel so its scary and in the news but I'm not going to panic.
The internet says that last winter about 48 million people in the world got flu, almost 100,000 were hospitalised for it and 80,000 died, of normal flu.
Lets see how this compares.
Also estimated death rate with this new virus seem (early days) to be around 2% of infected people, compared to something like 80% with ebola, I find it interesting how 'we' weren't panicking the same way about that.

 

[Part-timah]

I dunno. Yeah it novel so its scary and in the news but I'm not going to panic.
The internet says that last winter about 48 million people in the world got flu, almost 100,000 were hospitalised for it and 80,000 died, of normal flu.
Lets see how this compares.
Also estimated death rate with this new virus seem (early days) to be around 2% of infected people, compared to something like 80% with ebola, I find it interesting how 'we' weren't panicking the same way about that.

You should not panic.

You should prepare for yourself and in particular for those most vulnerable that are close to you.

Ebola is no where near as transmissible as NCP. You need physical contact with the infected or their excretions.

NCP is extremely transmissible as it spreads by aerosol. The reason it will have a greater impact on those who become infected than seasonal flu is because its new and we lack resistance to it. In addition seasonal flu has a lower mortality rate as its mutations that were less lethal succeeded in evolutionary terms having more time to spread due to the host being alive and mobile.

Read this:

Coronavirus will become a pandemic and is bigger threat than Ebola, expert warns

The number of coronavirus infections exceeded 30,000 and it appears to continue surging while experts are fighting to develop a vaccine to the virus

www.mirror.co.uk

Watch this:

 

[bimble]

You should prepare for yourself

how?
I might be doing a bit of bravado as am flying on Tuesday to a city in India that’s had a few confirmed cases. Don’t see any way to prepare myself, just wash hands & move if possible if seated next to a sneezer.

 

[Part-timah]

how?
I might be doing a bit of bravado as am flying on Tuesday to a city in India that’s had a few confirmed cases. Don’t see any way to prepare myself, just wash hands & move if possible if seated next to a sneezer.

If i was going to India for a holiday i would not go. India cities are often densely population and chaotic. If you’re on holiday there youll be eating out for most meals. Food prepared by many different people. You will be in close proximity with many others. India will be there next year.

 

[bimble]

Yeah no. it’s work trip (plus holiday after) and I think that’s a massive overreaction, personally. Would be different if I had compromised immune system etc.

 

[Part-timah]

Yeah no. it’s work trip (plus holiday after) and I think that’s a massive overreaction, personally. Would be different if I had compromised immune system etc.

If its work i would definitely not go. Whatever you do inform yourself so you are better prepared to make this decision.

 

[bimble]

What did you mean by ‘prepare yourself’ in your previous post?
I’m really looking forward to it and definitely going. Would cancel if it was China.

 

[Part-timah]

Read this document about planning for a viral respiratory pandemic. Note the current mortality rate is just over 2% which may seem low to the unfamiliar but as you’ll read is high.

https://www.hopkins-cepar.org/white_papers/Pan_Flu_Plan_5-30-2013.pdf

 

[lizzieloo]

Better not go to MK either then, or if your logic applies, the UK. I expect there will be more cases here in a few weeks than in India.

Milton Keynes hotel where coronavirus Brits will be quarantined for two weeks

The group will stay in a hotel for two weeks under observation but will be given entertainment such as Netflix and tablets while being quarantined following their return from Wuhan, China

www.google.com

The locals on Fb are pretty amusing.

 

[Part-timah]

The is the Centre for Disease Control’s Pandemic Severity Index: Pandemic severity index - Wikipedia

Above 2% mortality and its considered the very most severe.

 

[Part-timah]

Better not go to MK either then, or if your logic applies, the UK. I expect there will be more cases here in a few weeks than in India.

Milton Keynes hotel where coronavirus Brits will be quarantined for two weeks

The group will stay in a hotel for two weeks under observation but will be given entertainment such as Netflix and tablets while being quarantined following their return from Wuhan, China

www.google.com

The locals on Fb are pretty amusing.

The people are in quarantine. The UK is far better prepared and resourced than India. I’m not telling bimble what to do. I’m saying get informed so you are better aware of the risks you’ll need to accept.