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Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

sihhi said:
Dr. Li Wenliang, one of the 8 doctors who sounded the alarm on 1st January and was arrested on 2nd January has died.
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There is now some confusion about this, as some reports on his death were removed and others issued instead which suggest he is not dead yet, but is in a terrible condition, that his heart did stop for a while recently, and they resorted to extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation treatment.
 
elbows said:
There is now some confusion about this, as some reports on his death were removed and others issued instead which suggest he is not dead yet, but is in a terrible condition, that his heart did stop for a while recently, and they resorted to extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation treatment.
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Fucking hell, this is worse than David Kelly. :D
 
Cid said:
Also I do wonder about number of cases in places like Russian, India, various central Asian places. All have significant populations in China, but very few reported cases. Could be a number of reasons for that of course, but concern there that some have just gone unnoticed.
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Forgot to comment on this earlier because I got carried away with mutation.

There is a lot of concern that many African coutries, and plenty elsewhere, wont be able to cope with either the detection or subsequent possible phases of this. Steps are being taken to help, but even in countries considered to have advanced capabilities such as the UK, the expectation has always been that the detection rate will be nowhere close to 100%, we could easily miss as many or more than we detect.

Even if we remain for some time in a phase where the only large detected outbreaks are in China, the international picture is already starting to get come complex, as we start to see more cases that caught it while in a country that wasnt China. For example, it is being suggested that the 3rd case in the UK caught it in Singapore.
 
cupid_stunt said:
BBC TV News is reporting panic buying in HK, due to rumours of the border about to be closed, because of the strike by medical workers & general public concerns.
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Yep - it started with masks and disinfectant, then it was toilet paper, then rice, now it seems to be food and all kinds of other supplies, scary how fast something like this can snowball. People are spending a lot of time standing in queues in crowded shops wearing masks that don't really offer that much protection against the virus. The government says there are adequate supplies of things, but nobody believes anything they say after the events of the last 8 months.

Details on the quarantine for arrivals from the mainland haven't been finalised but it doesn't sound like it's going to be a very tight seal - Hong Kong residents will apparently be told to self-quarantine at home, others will apparently be told to stay in hotel rooms or quarantine facilities the government is trying to set up. Truck drivers from the mainland are also likely to be exempted, there'd be serious shortages of vegetables, etc. if they weren't.
 
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elbows said:
Forgot to comment on this earlier because I got carried away with mutation.

There is a lot of concern that many African coutries, and plenty elsewhere, wont be able to cope with either the detection or subsequent possible phases of this. Steps are being taken to help, but even in countries considered to have advanced capabilities such as the UK, the expectation has always been that the detection rate will be nowhere close to 100%, we could easily miss as many or more than we detect.
Click to expand...

I was at a previously mentioned talk on this outbreak and the experts presenting, including a someone skyped in from Africa say many countired there markedly improved health system and emergency response to emerging infectious disease. This in part due to Ebola outbreaks that have needed to be dealt with.

My personal concern is with India. Often mind bogglingly densely populated, great wealth inequality and a health system that while not terrible is unlikely to cope with a minor outbreak well.
 
The reporting confusion over whether the doctor had died now seems to have settled on him having passed away in recent hours.

Meanwhile as a result of more cases in certain countries, the UK government advice is now:

“The UK chief medical officers are advising anyone who has travelled to the UK from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau in the last 14 days and is experiencing cough or fever or shortness of breath, to stay indoors and call NHS 111, even if symptoms are mild.

“These countries have been identified because of the volume of air travel from affected areas, understanding of other travel routes and number of reported cases. This list will be kept under review.”
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Both of these are from todays Guardian live updates page on the coronavirus. Coronavirus: first British national confirmed with disease 'travelled back from Singapore' – latest news
 
elbows said:
The reporting confusion over whether the doctor had died now seems to have settled on him having passed away in recent hours.
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Yep - "There had been contradictory reports about his death, but the People's Daily now says he died at 02:58 on Friday (18:58 GMT Thursday). "

Such a shame the idiots didn't listen to his warning, back on the 30th December. :mad:

www.bbc.co.uk

Li Wenliang: Coronavirus kills Chinese whistleblower doctor

Li Wenliang warned fellow medics in December - but police told him to stop "making false comments".
www.bbc.co.uk
 
Callie said:
Widely recognised as a downside to testing, the more you test the more results you get. Schroedinger's virus.
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Of course, but for those on-board, the greater number of confirmed cases mean the greater chance of getting it.
 
cupid_stunt said:
Yep - "There had been contradictory reports about his death, but the People's Daily now says he died at 02:58 on Friday (18:58 GMT Thursday). "

Such a shame the idiots didn't listen to his warning, back on the 30th December. :mad:

www.bbc.co.uk

Li Wenliang: Coronavirus kills Chinese whistleblower doctor

Li Wenliang warned fellow medics in December - but police told him to stop "making false comments".
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...

The changing stories about his death were probably another sign of 'information management'.

Thats the thing about his whistleblowing too - it seems more likely to me that the situation was already known to central authorities at the time, so his whistleblowing was to alert the rest of the medical profession, who had been failed by these authorities. It wasnt a case of some people at some particular local level of bureaucracy being idiots and sitting on things/not recognising things, it was control and information suppression from the top, in the context of an outbreak they were already well aware of. After all, they told the WHO about the outbreak the very next day, which is rather quick if it was news to the Chinese authorities too. And the subsequent misleading picture given to the public for the first weeks of January also looks to me like information management from the top.
 
8ball said:
Remember when we used to call it 'lying'?
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I like to use the word propaganda a lot, but will also use the euphemisms of the day, with the idea that everyone knows what those weasel words really mean in this sort of context!

There are the slightly more subtle forms of this too, which I am used to seeing in WHO press releases. For example the confirmation of human to human spread tends to be considered a milestone, announcements about which are carefully managed. There was a period of approximately a week, where the January 20th confirmation of human to human transmission had not yet been made, but where the signs of it were looming large (thanks in great part to cases starting to show up overseas, which even in very small numbers helped estimate the picture in Wuhan). Language about 'no human to human transmission' started to be joined by extra words that introduced wiggle room and hinted at things to come, such as 'no severe', 'no sustained', 'limited' or 'no significant' human to human transmission.

The speed and scale of this outbreak limited the amount of time that this sort of censorship of the picture could be sustained, but it didnt stop them trying, and succeeding for limited periods.
 
elbows said:
The changing stories about his death were probably another sign of 'information management'.

Thats the thing about his whistleblowing too - it seems more likely to me that the situation was already known to central authorities at the time, so his whistleblowing was to alert the rest of the medical profession, who had been failed by these authorities. It wasnt a case of some people at some particular local level of bureaucracy being idiots and sitting on things/not recognising things, it was control and information suppression from the top, in the context of an outbreak they were already well aware of. After all, they told the WHO about the outbreak the very next day, which is rather quick if it was news to the Chinese authorities too. And the subsequent misleading picture given to the public for the first weeks of January also looks to me like information management from the top.
Click to expand...

'Something' was known to Wuhan authorities but Hubei authorities refused to make it known to central government for some considerable. But the assumption seemed to be market-human infection not human-human infection.

The Wechat post which got him investigated and warned by police was to Wuhan uni medicine alumni group, trying to encourage doctors in other hospitals in Wuhan to push people to effect barrier nursing.

Someone noted seems to fewer videos from hospitals in general because recording the situation has been leading to consequences in other parts of the country:

Here's one
Yunnan: 5 medical workers who secretly filmed and distributed epidemic prevention news have been detained or fined.

EQJKsJpUwAISyBt


The case of Chen QiuShi a citizen journalist in Wuhan who can't be contacted for 24 hours is also troubling but might be nothing.

I know someone whose parents are in Wuhan (and haven't left home for 14 days now) and their general impression from reliable other Wuhaners' phone and Weixin contact is that the health system is much more overrun than media reports.
 
sihhi said:
'Something' was known to Wuhan authorities but Hubei authorities refused to make it known to central government for some considerable. But the assumption seemed to be market-human infection not human-human infection.
Click to expand...

Its also very convenient for central government censorship to be blamed on local government failing to share information. So I'm not going to assume that central government was unaware of what was going on, although it is possible depending on the system. Plus control freak authorities tend to like to have multiple other channels open to them so that they still find out whats going on even if some lower levels of bureaucracy and power are blocking things.

It is feasible that human to human transmission was not noticed in December, as even without political meddling there is always some lag. It is unlikely to have gone unnoticed in the healthcare environment once January got going. Plus even in December, some of the earliest cases described in initial clinical reports had no direct contact with the market, indicating at least some limited human to human transmission.

I dont have enough facts to reach firm conclusions, but rather just enough to keep my mind open to both possibilities (or a mix of both).
 
The Pangolin is the latest possible intermediate host to be placed in the frame. Much more work needs to be done to establish whether it actually is the intermediate host in this case though.

www.reuters.com

Scientists question work suggesting pangolin coronavirus link

Independent scientists questioned research on Friday that suggested that the outbreak of coronavirus disease spreading from China might have passed from bats to humans through the illegal traffic of pangolins.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Given my previous moaning and groaning about corticosteroids, I was pleased to see this:


Corticosteroids were widely used during the outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV, and are being used in patients with 2019-nCoV in addition to other therapeutics.
However, current interim guidance from WHO on clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection is suspected (released Jan 28, 2020) advises against the use of corticosteroids unless indicated for another reason.
Understanding the evidence for harm or benefit from corticosteroids in 2019-nCoV is of immediate clinical importance. Here we discuss the clinical outcomes of corticosteroid use in coronavirus and similar outbreaks
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Also there are some attempts to extract some optimism from the reduced number of new cases reported in the last few days from the worst affected region. A peak and decline would be expected there at some point, and we are also probably into the window where we would expect to start to see whether efforts to reduce transmission there have been successful. But the data could also be a sign of something else, such as hitting some testing capacity limits, so I will wait longer before forming a conclusion. Also, much of what will determine the future is really about the growth of the disease in other locations, so I'm not about to start dancing around as if we just dodged a bullet. Anyway I dont have a good article to hand about this decline yet, will post one later.
 
Not surprisingly, the virus is causing mayhem for touring musicians:

Unfortunately, due to the Coronavirus we are being told shows in China in March have to be postponed, there can be no gigs at this time! Consequently we are going to have to reschedule all the other shows as a result because it totally fucks up our routing. As I’m sure you can imagine we’re all pretty bummed about that, have never played most of those places and how often do you get a chance to hit Australia?! Our manager and booker and the other folks that give birth to these logistical miracles are working through the night searching for solutions. Later this year hopefully. Onwards!

www.facebook.com

Fat White Family

Fat White Family. 53,658 likes · 956 talking about this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r95X2tXd8b0
www.facebook.com www.facebook.com
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"Guys, we've now been informed that the continent of Australia is on fire and the venues we were supposed to play are now smoldering ruins. As you can imagine, we're all pretty bummed about this because it totally fucks up the routing for the Pacific islands leg of our tour, and how often do you get to hit Fiji?"
 
TopCat said:
Jesus fuck do you only have empathy with touring musicians?
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Oh wow. :rolleyes:
I have empathy with anyone affected by this virus because it's an awful thing, but that doesn't mean I can't have empathy for anyone losing potentially once in a lifetime opportunities as well. What the fuck is wrong with that, anyway?

It's not like I'm the only person here posting similar comments:. Funnily enough you ignored this one:
www.urban75.net

Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

Cool - I'm going to tell my employer I've been to Wuhan over the weekend and need several weeks off. :thumbs: For bonus points, ask them to bring some food round and then cough at them through the letterbox. Meanwhile I've just seen that 33 environmental samples from the implicated Wuhan...
www.urban75.net www.urban75.net
 
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