Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
aye, but people will freak out all the same - we don't respond rationally to such things
Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
Cid
Proper break this time
People should probably be used to it by now, it’s not a new thing.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Cid
Proper break this time
No, but that’s clearly not what I meant. Masks this time of year are not a new thing.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
maomao
普費斯
If it was 'stomach flu'/norovirus that's one of it's routes of transmission and is very efficient. Good luck.
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
If a treatment under trial is clearly very effective I'd expect the trial to be halted on ethical grounds. The same presumably applies the other way round if a treatment is killing people.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
It's specific to nCov2019, MERS and SARS.
Dr. Li Wenliang, one of the 8 doctors who sounded the alarm on 1st January and was arrested on 2nd January has died.
This is an interesting table of when the first cases of healthcare worker infection were recorded in establishments with more than 15 DNA confirmed cases :
Finally, cases show just how easily this virus can spread:
In the first case of rapid transmission, a man in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, was infected with coronavirus after spending only 50 seconds with a confirmed patient at a hospital while neither of them were wearing masks, according to a report by Beijing Evening News.
In another case, a 56-year-old man in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, was infected with the virus after spending only 15 seconds with a confirmed patient at a local market stand. Both were also not wearing masks at the time.
Both men have no history of living or traveling in the epidemic area within 14 days of the onset of the disease, did not have any contact with wild animals, and did not know any confirmed patients.
After checking surveillance videos that recorded the two patients' movements and collating their activities, the police discovered on Wednesday that the two men both had short contact with confirmed patients while not wearing masks, the first on January 22 and the other on January 23.
8ball
Maximum Facepalm
Yep, this is bang on. There are lots of trials that get stopped (ie. the regular ones you never hear of) that get terminated if early data reviews show it is unethical to continue to use a placebo (or, as is usually more common) a comparator drug for a proportion of the patients.
And yes, if something turns out horrifically toxic (or very obviously ineffective), the converse happens.
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
If true that's remarkably efficient.
maomao
普費斯
Would have thought the doctor would be young and fit enough to make it. Perhaps the sheer amount of the virus he was picking up made it worse. Poor sod. 
Third UK case was caught elsewhere in Asia. I have three colleagues off to Thailand over the next couple of months. Hope it doesn't go nuts there.
Third UK case was caught elsewhere in Asia. I have three colleagues off to Thailand over the next couple of months. Hope it doesn't go nuts there.
8ball
Maximum Facepalm
Would have thought the doctor would be young and fit enough to make it. Perhaps the sheer amount of the virus he was picking up made it worse. Poor sod.
Perhaps the amount of high-grade polonium being pumped into his home water supply by the angry and embarassed authorities didn't help.
maomao
普費斯
That's Russia. They just fucking shoot you in China.Perhaps the amount of high-grade polonium being pumped into his home water supply by the angry and embarassed authorities didn't help.
8ball
Maximum Facepalm
Must admit, wasn't too sure about their methods, but in this particular case we know we are not dealing with unusually large, fast-moving viruses made of lead, so more creativity might be required.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
8ball
Maximum Facepalm
That's a bit too close to me.
Tbf, that's a lot less scary than the third person catching it from an unknown source in the UK.
Cid
Proper break this time
Would have thought the doctor would be young and fit enough to make it. Perhaps the sheer amount of the virus he was picking up made it worse. Poor sod.
Third UK case was caught elsewhere in Asia. I have three colleagues off to Thailand over the next couple of months. Hope it doesn't go nuts there.
Yeah, 34 years old. Initial thought was perhaps it was more deadly when it kicked off, but that is probably wrong - iirc elbows etc mention it hasn't evolved much.
Also I do wonder about number of cases in places like Russian, India, various central Asian places. All have significant populations in China, but very few reported cases. Could be a number of reasons for that of course, but concern there that some have just gone unnoticed.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
that's a bit alarmist unless you're elderly or immunocompromised. even then the risk is small
Chilli.s
mingling jets and statuettes
In truth it's not an actual sergestion, more a joke to lighten what could become a serious thing.
Cid
Proper break this time
I mean Russian students and the like rather than the longer term minority groups... Really just a thought, as there were quite a few when I was in Nanjing.
elbows
Well-Known Member
There are various thoughts as to why the death rate in Wuhan is worse. But I am now tending to prefer the waiting game, because some of the patterns and differences could be down to the stage things (and early patients) have reached there but not reached in other places yet. Alternatively, I will not be surprised if nowhere else ends up with quite the same pattern of hospital admissions and deaths as Wuhan.
Mutations are a feature of this type of virus, and I think I have struggled to explain which bits of the mutation stories in the media I (and some virologists etc that I read the thoughts of on twitter) take issue with. I'll have another quick go.
I think it was when I was looking at H5N1 bird flu that I first became aware of the idea that a virus might start off in humans in a rather deadly form, and that this is not ideal for the virus, and for that and other reasons if it evolves to spread more in humans, it will also become less deadly at the same time.
Well, maybe things turn out that way sometimes. But its not some hard and fast rule, and there are some flaws to the logic that killing the host is always bad for the virus. The virus cares about replicating and spreading. And the relationship between having enough opportunities to spread and not being too severe or deadly to the host is not so simple either.
I also expect that this sort of explanation for the origin of an outbreak being more deadly than that seen in a subsequent wider spread, ends up covering for some of the other reasons, that for one reason or another are not of so much interest to the media. For example when it comes to the current estimates for mortality rate, even when some articles point out how flawed these numbers are at this stage, it wont stop those numbers being quoted and used in articles that do not point out their limitations. Later, if a very different death rate is observed elsewhere, it is easy to assume that this is down to some change that has happened to the virus. But in fact it might just be our perception of the viruses deadliness that has changed. Or the myriad of other factors that make a difference, such as peoples behaviour (which can have a real effect on transmissibility, and timely clinical presentation), alertness and readiness of medical services to respond, general health or susceptibility of the population varying in different places, etc.
A couple of tweets to illustrate one of my points in detail that I couldnt come out with using my own limited knowledge.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Also the mutation stories, and expert willingness to provide such stories in the first place, are a much better fit with other sorts of outbreaks than this one.
The standard scenario for that sort of thing is that there is an outbreak of something that has not yet showed a good ability for sustained human to human transmission. So most of the cases got it directly from animals, or they were doctors and other healthcare workers with close contact to patients, and then a few other intermittent human to human cases, but no evidence of much broader human to human transmission.
Well, thats a pretty much perfect scene for the sort of mutation story I've been having a go at. Because we normally only notice these animal->human incidents in the first place when they happen to cause severe disease, so there is the 'disease starts off too horribly deadly to contemplate' bit. But human to human transmission is still weak, so thats the bit you worry might get much stronger via some future mutations. Chuck in the 'it will hopefully become less deadly at the same time it becomes more spreadable' and thats it, all the ingredients are available for the mutation story. Including context and a relationship with our hopes and fears for the future of the outbreak that seems to make sense.
Things like H5N1 bird flu (and some subsequent varieties), and SARS and MERS fit the above much better than this coronavirus has, and mutation came up as a reason why the world should care about those limited outbreaks and provide the funds and capabilities to deal with them. This coronavirus on the other hand already seems quite capable of human to human spread, so attempts to recycle that mutation story and blend it into this one doesnt quite work in the same way, the context isnt such a neat fit at all.
The standard scenario for that sort of thing is that there is an outbreak of something that has not yet showed a good ability for sustained human to human transmission. So most of the cases got it directly from animals, or they were doctors and other healthcare workers with close contact to patients, and then a few other intermittent human to human cases, but no evidence of much broader human to human transmission.
Well, thats a pretty much perfect scene for the sort of mutation story I've been having a go at. Because we normally only notice these animal->human incidents in the first place when they happen to cause severe disease, so there is the 'disease starts off too horribly deadly to contemplate' bit. But human to human transmission is still weak, so thats the bit you worry might get much stronger via some future mutations. Chuck in the 'it will hopefully become less deadly at the same time it becomes more spreadable' and thats it, all the ingredients are available for the mutation story. Including context and a relationship with our hopes and fears for the future of the outbreak that seems to make sense.
Things like H5N1 bird flu (and some subsequent varieties), and SARS and MERS fit the above much better than this coronavirus has, and mutation came up as a reason why the world should care about those limited outbreaks and provide the funds and capabilities to deal with them. This coronavirus on the other hand already seems quite capable of human to human spread, so attempts to recycle that mutation story and blend it into this one doesnt quite work in the same way, the context isnt such a neat fit at all.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Does anyone know the state of the travel restrictions in China and neighbouring countries?
I think I overheard that restrictions inside China are staying put for the time being, but that Hong Kong is still allowing visitors from the mainland on the promise that they quarantine themselves for 14 days. I must say that seems very trusting.
I think I overheard that restrictions inside China are staying put for the time being, but that Hong Kong is still allowing visitors from the mainland on the promise that they quarantine themselves for 14 days. I must say that seems very trusting.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
BBC TV News is reporting panic buying in HK, due to rumours of the border about to be closed, because of the strike by medical workers & general public concerns.
