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[Yossarian]

Just to put Japan's 'emergency' in perspective...

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Looks like an emergency to me - cases are rising steeply in a country where very few people have had the virus and less than 1% of one of the world's oldest populations has been vaccinated. All those lines from other countries show the disaster that could be waiting to happen if strict measures aren't taken.

 

[Teaboy]

Just to put Japan's 'emergency' in perspective...

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Why do you keep doing this?

The only perspective that matters is Japan's and they deem it to be an emergency. But its much worse over there doesn't seem to be especially relevant.

 

[elbows]

Other aspects of the context in Japan:

State of emergency stuff is how they do lockdowns legislatively.
These measures will cover the 'Golden week' holidays.
Unimpressive healthcare capacity.

Three months before Olympics, Japan declares 'short' emergency in Tokyo

Japan declared "short and powerful" states of emergency for Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures on Friday as the country struggles to contain a resurgent coronavirus pandemic three months before the Olympics.

www.reuters.com

Includes a new aspect to their measures:

"We will be asking for illuminations and neon signs to be turned off," Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike told a news conference.

"It will be dark at night," she said, adding she hoped the initiative would discourage people from going out at night. Koike also asked non-residents to refrain from entering Tokyo as much as possible.

And mutants:

Of the cases tested by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health between April 5 and 11, about 38% involved the variants first found in the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, believed to be more contagious than the original virus.

About 46% of infections differed from these variants and carried a mutation called E484K, suspected of making vaccines less effective and reinfecting those who previously had COVID-19. E484K, which is also found in the South Africa and Brazil variants, raises renewed concerns that the vaccine drive will not be as effective as originally hoped, just as the program kicks off in Japan.

India and Japan wrestle with new COVID waves driven by variants

Mutations hit Asia hard and fast, casting Tokyo Olympics in uncertainty

asia.nikkei.com

 

[teuchter]

Why do you keep doing this?

The only perspective that matters is Japan's and they deem it to be an emergency. But its much worse over there doesn't seem to be especially relevant.

Because if you see an announcement that a country has called a state of emergency, you might think that means that things have got entirely out of control. In particular at the moment, with worries about new variants, seeing countries like Japan which have so far done fairly well suddenly seeing big rises could be very concerning.

It's quite possible of course that this does represent the beginning of something going badly wrong, but for me it is useful to see it in context. The numbers at this moment are very low compared to what we have seen in Europe and they are also not very different to what Japan saw 3 or 4 months ago and managed to bring down again.

I find it useful to make this kind of comparison to understand what it actually means when a headline talks about an emergency.

 

[Yossarian]

Unless their COVID protocols were designed with the British, Brazilian etc. strains in mind, seems like it'd be mad for Japan to go ahead with the Olympics now unless they're planning to award a medal for Most Infectious Variant.

 

[Teaboy]

Unless their COVID protocols were designed with the British, Brazilian etc. strains in mind, seems like it'd be mad for Japan to go ahead with the Olympics now unless they're planning to award a medal for Most Infectious Variant.

In India they've been cracking on with the IPL

For those that don't know the IPL is an Indian cricket tournament which is the richest and biggest in the world and has stars from all over the world playing.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky News is reporting from outside a hospital in India, they have run out of space inside, they are trying to treat patients in the queue outside, and the reporter has witnessed at least six die in that queue in the short time they have been there.

 

[Teaboy]

Because if you see an announcement that a country has called a state of emergency, you might think that means that things have got entirely out of control. In particular at the moment, with worries about new variants, seeing countries like Japan which have so far done fairly well suddenly seeing big rises could be very concerning.

It's quite possible of course that this does represent the beginning of something going badly wrong, but for me it is useful to see it in context. The numbers at this moment are very low compared to what we have seen in Europe and they are also not very different to what Japan saw 3 or 4 months ago and managed to bring down again.

I find it useful to make this kind of comparison to understand what it actually means when a headline talks about an emergency.

That doesn't really explain much. It just comes across as you downplaying stuff and contradicting people on the ground living it. I should add I don't think that's your intention it just comes across like that.

 

[Sunray]

Sky News is reporting from outside a hospital in India, they have run out of space inside, they are trying to treat patients in the queue outside, and the reporter has witnessed at least six die in that queue in the short time they have been there.

This is unfolding like a daily Tsunami with endless waves crashing into the shore.

I don't really see the RoW can really do too much to help here?
Provide oxygen certainly? Get cargo flights going with lots to see if that temporary crisis can be averted. India can make plenty but it's a matter of logistics. If you fly it into Delhi at least it would give them some time to get things up to speed.
India makes meds and vaccines and is vaccinating a lot of people every day.
Provide emergency additional facilities, probably not? Covid requires specialist multidisciplinary care and care may need to go on for weeks or months. A field hospital is just a tent if it can't help you with the drugs and care you need.

The biggest thing India can do is to social distance and isolate for a while. Sadly this is totally impossible for the majority of Indian people.

 

[weltweit]

Allies can certainly ship oxygen, and the wherewithall to produce more, any international help is going to take days to establish itself and many thousands don't have that time. I can remember seeing the claims of earlier cases and not believing it, this is more what I expected, sad to say.

 

[William of Walworth]

This is unfolding like a daily Tsunami with endless waves crashing into the shore.

I don't really see the RoW can really do too much to help here?

Did a quick Google of RoW, with no joy -- please, what is it?

But one of the quickest things rich ountries need to do right now, and could surely do, is send multiple cargo flights to India, filled entirely with oxygen cylinders ..... ???

 

[two sheds]

Rest of the World

 

[William of Walworth]

Rest of the World

Thanks, blame first world beer for my not being aware of that

But I really hope India, and RoW, work out some way of mitigating the terrible things happening there right now

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky News is reporting from outside a hospital in India, they have run out of space inside, they are trying to treat patients in the queue outside, and the reporter has witnessed at least six die in that queue in the short time they have been there.

This was the main story just now on Sky News, with a 10 minute report, partly filmed inside the over crowded hospital, with patients on trollies packed into a ward, at the foot of normal beds, apparently more are in the main reception area, with several just on the floor, as the queue outside continues to grow.

This is one of the main hospitals in New Delhi, and the fear is it could be much worst in some rural areas, in the metro area of New Delhi (pop. 26.5m) the number of covid patients in hospital has gone from 544 on 12th March to 18,154 on 22nd April.

A doctor from the Public Health Foundation of India said, even with the current lockdown, they don't expect this wave to peak until mid-May.

There was almost 350k new cases reported yesterday.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Apparently various countries, including the UK, US & China, are in talks with India about how they can keep.

The UK is talking about sending drugs, oxygen & ventilators.

 

[Badgers]

Apparently various countries, including the UK, US & China, are in talks with India about how they can keep.

The UK is talking about sending drugs, oxygen & ventilators.

Is Dyson sorting the ventilators?

 

[IC3D]

Is Dyson sorting the ventilators?

Sweeten the trade deal.
Countries around the world would have resilience plans, I don't understand at this point why storing extra oxygen wouldn't be happening some places

 

[platinumsage]

Massive fuck up by the Indian government on vaccines, they've bought less than a tenth of the amount of vaccine doses than Brazil has. Thanks to their nationalism they refused local production and licensing of Pfizer insisting that new local trials be conducted first. Meanwhile directed lots of funds to the "100% Indian" vaccine, COVAXIN, designed and produced by Bharat Biotech, despite it being at that point in very early stage trials and with no mass production capability in place. Their biggest vaccine producer the, Serum Institute, was signing deals last year to export hundreds of million of AZ doses all around the world - but the Indian government didn't buy any AZ from them until earlier this year, and only 11m doses which is nothing.

And they gave up on test, trace and isolate, even having a slogan about how vaccines will save the day

 

[teqniq]

This is the absolute height of folly:

America Is Embargoing Supplies While India Burns

America is actively shutting down global vaccine production

indi.ca

 

[not-bono-ever]

Norwegian climber who was first to test positive for COVID at Mount Everest went during pandemic 'because it was cheaper'

Erlend Ness "really started to feel bad" on his trek to base camp but decided to continue following his team.

news.sky.com

wankers. wankers everywhere

 

[William of Walworth]

This article is hard to read, and frankly heart breaking.

Even Record Death Toll May Hide Extent of India’s Covid Crisis

Bodies piling up at crematoriums and burial grounds across India are sparking concerns that the death toll from a ferocious new Covid-19 wave may be much higher than official records, underplaying the scale of a resurgence that is overwhelming the country’s medical system.

www.bloomberg.com

I don't think I can work up to reading that Bloomberg article yet, but I will make myself do that later. Everything sounds horrendous!

I've read this now

Indeed, it's all horrific .....

 

[Sasaferrato]

The wee shop up from us, which used to operated by my friend Qaiser, is now being operated by Sri Lankan couple

The bloke was showing Mrs Sas some video this morning. Overwhelmed doesn't cover it.

India has had a million new cases in three days. A million. I just can't get my head around that.

 

[weltweit]

I heard that there are container sized bits of plant which make oxygen at a fair rate. Sounds like India could do with being shipped a good few hundred of these.

 

[bimble]

Indian government is responding by continuing to hold massive election rallies and by censoring tweets that are critical of its handling of the disaster. Twitter is agreeing to help them restrict people's access to information.

Twitter Is Blocking Tweets That Criticize How The Indian Government Has Handled The Pandemic

More than 50 tweets are now blocked in India.

www.buzzfeednews.com

Friend who works for a NGO there says about 70% of migrant workers have gone back to their villages already, or are making their way back, fearing a sudden lockdown like the last one which left them stranded, which means the poorest are going to be without any income for as long as this goes on. He says the NGO is planning on 3 months.

 

[Sunray]

India can make plenty of oxygen, it has a gas and steel industry and to make steel you need to inject oxygen, I suspect they use the oxygen process as it uses less electricity.
The problem in India it’s one of getting it to the people who need it. Production is potentially 1000km from where it’s needed. They have used the trains, roads would be too slow.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well Brits are now allowed back into Turkey on direct flights with no quarantine, just a negative test.

Can you still get a visa on arrival?

 

[miss direct]

Brits don't need a visa anymore.

 

[miss direct]

It's no fun looking back at the first page of this thread. I am surprised there was no thread about this till towards the end of January 2020. I spent the whole of that month pet sitting on the southern coast of Turkey (lucky me!) and the disabled cat liked to have BBC World news on, so I was aware pretty early. Then spotted the odd mask back in Istanbul. Due to the outbreak in Iran my main source of work was cancelled mid February. I definitely felt rising panic way before others were affected or concerned.

The Turkish authorities played completely dumb by denying that covid was present in Turkey, despite open borders to the world and thousands of Iranians in and out. Among other ignorant claims was the suggestion that there was no covid there because Turkish people are so clean due to their use of lemon cologne. The Turkish authorities have behaved predictably poorly throughout, and even now tourists are welcomed in and free to roam while residents and citizens face severe restrictions.

Just watched the latest news from India and its so awful that the world is facing this, 16 months on...so much incompetence and despair.

 

[bimble]

I just got some news that’s brought home to me the absolute devastation that’s going on there. Old man who with his family has run a guesthouse in Delhi forever, that I’ve stayed at a few times over the years. He (goes by the Major) is in hospital with covid, and so is his daughter, and his wife died with it last week. Just unimaginable despair must be going on there, if one family can be hit like this. He’s very old.

 

[elbows]

I am surprised there was no thread about this till towards the end of January 2020.

It was on my radar from the start of January but I dont believe in going on about novel outbreaks until there is a certain amount of info available about human to human transmission. Otherwise I'd far too easily have become the boy who cried wolf too often in the past. That threshold was passed only a few days before someone else started this thread on January 20th. I dont know exactly what date it really passed that threshold in my own mind, I didnt start keeping my own timeline records till a bit later, but it would have been somewhere between the 14th and the 18th of January 2020. Then there was a brief period where it was unclear what range the fatality rate was, and where I could not get an exact grip on the pandemic potential of this virus, in part because of the way the original SARS outbreak was contained years earlier despite spreading between people. And then there was a period that seemed to drag on forever where there was an unnecessary reluctance shown by many to call it a pandemic even though it was pretty obvious thats what it would become. I promised not to goo too far out on a limb about that but even with that self-imposed restrain the slowness of the authorities still left me plenty of time to start calling it a pandemic before a pandemic had been declared. And even then there were a few fools who still found it an appropriate stage to sneer at me calling it a bad pandemic unfolding before our eyes.

Apologies for the excessive navel-gazing, reviewing the early months helps me to come to terms with what happened.