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[IC3D]

The flu shot is less effective as it targets a group of virus's cupid_stunt with the hope of getting lucky, and it is effective in reducing death and I fully encourage vulnerable people to have it if they want

 

[cupid_stunt]

The flu shot is less effective as it targets a group of virus's cupid_stunt with the hope of getting lucky, and it is effective in reducing death and I fully encourage vulnerable people to have it if they want

More like it targets different influenza strains, hence it tends to be regularly updated to target the main strain(s) in a given year, which looks like will be the same with covid vaccines, depending on what new coronavirus strains pop-up.

 

[elbows]

Its complicated and I only know a few bits and bobs.

For example with flu vaccines the performance in older people against H3N2 flu ended up being very poor over many years, and although this was not kept totally secret the authorities certainly didnt draw peoples attention to it until they had an alternative vaccine for older people ready for widespread use a few years back.

There are probably several reasons for it poor performance, but its certainly not as simple as failing to match the strain each year, and the poor results were a problem because it tends to be the H3N2 strain which causes the biggest healthcare burden, lots of deaths etc.

One possible reason for the poor performance is that aspects of our immune system are strongly affected by our personal disease and vaccination history. For example there are theories regarding influenza involving our priming history - eg that our bodies always end up mounting the best response against the type of influenza that we were first exposed to early in our lives. Since H3N2 did not arrive until the end of the 1960's, people born before that time will have been exposed to a different type first (H2N2 and before that H1N1) and dont end up mounting such a strong response against H3N2. There are also some studies which might suggest that repeated vaccination every year ends up diminishing the effectiveness, but this is one of those possibilities that can be hard to talk about properly because it can lead to defeatism and putting people off, and much uncertainty in the science remains.

Anyway thats influenza and I dont know if any similar things will be seen with the coronavirus vaccine - probably plenty of differences but we might still expect the true picture to end up quite complicated.

Certainly when it comes to this pandemic virus there are signs that the authorities are nervous that too many people cannot help but think of vaccines and protection in rather binary ways. There was deliberate messaging about this from Whitty etc in a press conference not long ago, I may transcribe the relevant bits if I get a chance.

 

[elbows]

Once or twice I've made noises about certain elements within society having a pandemic weakness for dinner parties and fancy restaurants, now a little of that world has been exposed in France!

Covid: Paris police probe 'secret luxury dinner parties'

French authorities investigate after an undercover video claims to show secret luxury dining.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

I dont think I will get a chance to transcribe the Whitty stuff so here is an article with a few quotes instead. It was only about a week ago:

COVID-19: 'We don't know how strong our fortifications are against new wave', says Boris Johnson

The prime minister acknowledges a "big day" as lockdown rules are eased - but warns the country "must proceed with caution".

news.sky.com

Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, said the UK had a "kind of wall of vaccination that will get stronger" as more people begin to receive their second doses over the coming weeks.

But he added: "It is not a complete wall, it is a kind of leaky wall. Therefore, there will always be some people who either have chosen not to be vaccinated, or where the vaccine has had much less effect.

"If we get a small surge, there will be cases of people who have been vaccinated who will have severe disease, and there will be cases of people who are not vaccinated, a much higher proportion, who will get severe disease, and some of those will go on to die.

"If you get a very big wave, that would obviously lead to a significant impact.

"The thing to understand with vaccines is they provide increasing levels of protection as we go through," he said.

"The first vaccine provides a high degree of protection, the second vaccine for the same person provides greater protection - but there's still some vulnerability.

"Then actually having people around someone who has been vaccinated who are themselves vaccinated, provides a further level of protection.

"And then the key thing is keeping the rates right down, which makes it very unlikely that someone who comes in - even if they haven't been vaccinated and certainly if they have - will actually have COVID and be able to pass it on.

"What we're trying to do is get to the point where all of those protections are in place. We are not yet at that stage. We are getting there steadily."

I've always considered it almost inevitable that at some stage we will hear stories of peoples shock and disbelief that a vaccinated friend or relative still died of Covid-19. The media may be wary of reporting loudly on such things in case it partially undermines efforts to get everyone to be vaccinated. And if we can avoid high levels of transmission in society then this will obviously help keep the number of sad stories from ballooning into view.

I still expect mass vaccination to really transform the picture, just not to the extent that binary thinking about protection would imply.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Things are getting grim in India, at the start of March they were reporting an average of just over 15k new cases a day, that's now over 84k, following record of over 100k being recorded on Sunday.

COVID-19 cases surge in India: Warning over variants and social distancing as cases exceed 100,000 a day

Doctors in the country warn of a crisis as politicians continue to campaign ahead of elections.

news.sky.com

 

[William of Walworth]

And this jumped out at me, from near the end of the above depressing article :

At the same time, one of the largest congregation of pilgrims have started converging for the month long Maha Kumbh in Haridwar, Uttarakhand from 1 April.

According to the organisers, this once-in-12-years festival is estimated to attract about 150 million pilgrims over the next 30 days.

I've realised that that's the actual Kumbh Mela, the biggest festival in the world .... had lost track that was going to happen this year!! Ulp ....
I always also assumed it would be in Ahmedabad/Allahabad again ... I'd never really heard of Haridwar ...

There's a zillion links about the Kumbh, Wiki's one is the best that's quick to find.
Insanely complex history, with all sorts of different cycles of when and where the event occurs.

Before I thought of Wiki though, I saw a caption under one of the Times of India videos that said (in passing) that this year, pilgrims/attendees will be Covid-tested.

All 150 million of them though? I have severe doubts!

 

[teuchter]

I do wonder if there will be a big surge in immigration applications to NZ. It's certainly something I would be considering if I was younger.

Why?

 

[Orang Utan]

Why?

Cos it’s nice and the quality of life is better. They have parrots and penguins

 

[teuchter]

Cos it’s nice and the quality of life is better. They have parrots and penguins

Why would there be a surge though - what's changed that makes it better?

 

[Orang Utan]

Why would there be a surge though - what's changed that makes it better?

Their response to the pandemic and the world’s continued circling the drain

 

[nagapie]

Cos it’s nice and the quality of life is better. They have parrots and penguins

It's too far away from your family and friends.

 

[Orang Utan]

It's too far away from your family and friends.

I know still getting a passport as insurance though

 

[nagapie]

I know still getting a passport as insurance though

Oh yeah, you can never have too many passports.

 

[William of Walworth]

My brother and missus brother hired a luxury campervan to tour and explore all over New Zealand (both Islands) not just once, but twice
(second time September 2019 )

Let's just say that from what they told us and showed us, I'm ultra-jealous.

And not just of the van they hired

 

[Teaboy]

I watched some heart-breaking news stories from Brazil yesterday. Up to 4000 deaths a day now. An utterly appalling mix of chronic wealth and health inequality and a callous disgusting human being (and the elitist system around him) who couldn't care less about people dying and suffering. Mostly it seems because they are poor people.

There has been talk of covid becoming a disease of poor people. I would say it already is and pretty much always has been.

 

[Johnny Doe]

There has been talk of covid becoming a disease of poor people. I would say it already is and pretty much always has been.

Yup, there's plenty of videos doing the rounds of globally famous, very rich DJs, travelling to earn fortunes at events staffed by impoverished locals, the former putting the latter at risk

 

[BlanketAddict]

America has quite rapidly and comprehensively rejected any notion of a vaccine passport (as reported on BBC website).

I wonder what this will do with regards to other countries stances. I can't see many countries wanting to ban American travel/tourists etc but plenty of countries seem to be moving in the passport direction.

Could get a bit tricky.

 

[Teaboy]

America has quite rapidly and comprehensively rejected any notion of a vaccine passport (as reported on BBC website).

I wonder what this will do with regards to other countries stances. I can't see many countries wanting to ban American travel/tourists etc but plenty of countries seem to be moving in the passport direction.

Could get a bit tricky.

Yes but I got the impression that announcement was very much for their domestic audience. I very strongly suspect that when it comes to people wanting to visit their country they may take a different view.

 

[BlanketAddict]

Yes but I got the impression that announcement was very much for their domestic audience. I very strongly suspect that when it comes to people wanting to visit their country they may take a different view.

You might be right.

The tricky bit may be insisting on documentation for visitors but then trying to convince other countries to let in your undocumented travellers!

 

[stdP]

Doesn't the US already require fingerprinting for all foreign nationals entering the country (even if it's only transit for a connecting flight)? It doesn't seem much of a stretch from that to impose vaccination requirements as well.

 

[two sheds]

"are you or have you ever been ...?"

 

[not-bono-ever]

 

[Hollis]

Apologies if this is old news.. but someone just forwarded me this tool... stick it on the log scale, and the similarity in patterns across countries stands out..

COVID-19 Data Explorer

 

[mx wcfc]

Interesting graphic... if it works

 

[BigMoaner]

Interesting graphic... if it works

That was creepy/sad. Mental what the world has gone though

 

[spring-peeper]

Canada is outpacing U.S. for new COVID-19 cases per capita

Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada have skyrocketed amid the third wave of the pandemic and have now outpaced the United States per capita.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Badgers]

Coronavirus: 'Double mutant' Covid variant found in India

This comes as India reported 47,262 cases and 275 deaths on Wednesday, its highest tally this year.

www.bbc.com

 

[elbows]

I was previously talking about Chile on the UK thread because it had come up in the context of a UK press conference and questions about our future. But I'll put it here from now on.

We now have this from the BBC live updates page, 11:23 entry https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56713639 :

Sir David King, former chief scientific adviser to the government, has raised concerns about a third wave of infections in Chile.
He told Sky News: "Chile is a country where the rate of vaccination amongst the population was third highest in the world - they were ahead of us in terms of the number of people who have had the vaccine - and they're suddenly now into a third wave.
"They now have 7,600 cases a day and the total number of people in Chile now who have Covid-19 is over a million.
"So what has happened in Chile is very, very surprising - a high percentage of people have been vaccinated, but here's a variant of the disease coming through the country."

However new variants are not the only possible explanation. There is also the question of how effective the Sinovac vaccine is, and a Chinese official recently added to that possibility before backtracking.

Chinese official says local vaccines 'don't have high protection rates'

However he later appeared to backtrack, saying his comments were a "complete misunderstanding".

www.bbc.co.uk

‘The right path’ - Chile defends Sinovac use amid fresh efficacy questions

Chilean authorities on Sunday backed the country's widespread use of the COVID-19 vaccine manufactured by Chinese firm Sinovac after China's top disease official appeared to make conflicting statements about its efficacy.

www.reuters.com

 

[elbows]

I'd also suggest that a lot of coverage about Chile has giant holes in its analysis.

This FT article doesnt suffer from as many blindspots:

Chile’s lauded vaccine rollout fails to save it from Covid surge

Mood darkens in country that had won plaudits for its immunisation programme

www.ft.com

“We weren’t expecting an impact [of vaccines on infections] until June or even July,” said Miguel O’Ryan, a professor at the University of Chile’s medicine faculty who sits on the Chilean science ministry’s coronavirus vaccine advisory committee. “What we are seeing now is simply — and tragically — what happened in all of the northern hemisphere, with a few exceptions, as autumn started [six months ago].”

Jarbas Barbosa, the PAHO's assistant director, agrees that vaccination programmes will have a delayed effect, because as much as 70-80 per cent of the population needs to be immunised to prevent the virus from spreading. “We really don't know yet what is the level that will provide . . . herd immunity,” he said, adding that it was therefore “crucial to keep all the measures [in place] that can prevent transmission”.

First has been the spread of new, more virulent strains of the virus, particularly from Brazil. Second, Chileans have been moving about more after returning from summer holidays in March. And third, she said there had been less strict adherence to social distancing, partly because people felt safer owing to the vaccination programme — but also because of lockdown fatigue.

In addition, the Sinovac vaccine is only fully effective after the second dose, unlike the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine that is much more effective after just one. Although about 40 per cent of Chileans have received one dose so far, less than half that amount have had two. A recent study of the effectiveness of Chile’s vaccination programme found that two weeks after receiving a second jab, it is 56 per cent effective, but with one jab effectiveness drops to just 3 per cent.

“The government was over-optimistic in believing that its successful vaccination programme would avoid a new wave of infections,” said Eduardo Engel, an economist who co-authored the report, explaining that in early February the government gave the impression that one dose was likely to have a significant effect. “That led to people getting too relaxed, while the government was not very strict at implementing restrictions. The other factor is that the government did little to stop new variants entering the country, even though it knew since December that it was a major risk factor,” he added.