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Yep, It's like we're experiencing a bit of a parallel universe down here. I'm looking on in shocked disbelief as I see what's happening for europe based urbs. I've even got some survivors guilt going on. First world problem I know , and I won't deny it.

My dad, sister and her husband all live in London and have covid. She's a teacher.

Yeah, I have a couple of FB friends in oz... It's feels very odd seeing what you lot are able to do, pictures of Christmas gatherings etc... even people hugging their friends.
 
Why does Australia need 117 million vaccine doses when they only have about 22 million adults living there?

No idea other than because they can, and for the reason nagapie has said.

They initially only pre ordered 5 million a month ago, then doubled that. Now I imagine that they're hedging their bets between the various vaccines, as it's not a one size fits all..the Aus grown vaccine turned out to be a dud, there's concern over getting it out into the community at such low temperatures, so there may be waste.

But yeah it seems slightly excessive doesn't it. Maybe because we don't have capacity to make our own here, so they're buying in for now and for the usual winter shot time which happens about may.

I really don't know


I'd like to think that Australia also has in mind to help some of our closest neighbors.

  • New Zealand
  • Timor – Leste (East Timor)
  • Papua New Guinea
  • New Caledonia
  • The Solomon Islands
  • Indonesia
  • Singapore
  • Fiji
  • Vanuatu
 
Evidence for vertical faecal aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection via connected drainage pipes in an apartment building in Guangzhou.
EqCQhX8XUAgOcRR

Probable Evidence of Fecal Aerosol Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a High-Rise Building Kang, Wei et al.
DOI: 10.7326/M20-0928
 
On achieving widespread immunity across the community.
Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.

Asked about Dr. Fauci’s conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60 to 70 percent was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.
 
Evidence for vertical faecal aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection via connected drainage pipes in an apartment building in Guangzhou.
EqCQhX8XUAgOcRR

Probable Evidence of Fecal Aerosol Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a High-Rise Building Kang, Wei et al.
DOI: 10.7326/M20-0928

I know they think it spread like this in Hong Kong with original SARS.

When I came back into China and was put into centralized quarantine, I was given some kind of tablets to put into the cistern of my toilet every day, and some sachets of powder. They told me to pour the powder on my shit before I flushed. :D :eek: :oops: So I guess the fecal transmission route is taken fairly seriously here.
 
Initial results in an ongoing longitudinal study (of health care workers) suggest naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 provides protection against re-infection in healthy adults (65 years of age or under) for at least 6 months.
I personally know 4 colleagues in my hospital who tested positive in the first wave who were reinfected in the last 2 months. This is much more common than we realise and less protection is conferred by prior infection.
Luckily (and oddly) there is good evidence that the vaccine gives more protection than prior infection.
 
Cheers. Ran a covid ward for 6 weeks until last week- 30 (of ~70) of our staff ended up infected. All scrupulous with PPE. I somehow dodged it. All back at work now, but several were quite ill and two admitted (one nurse admitted under me to our ward!).

I realised this week I haven't had a full week off (when I didn't have coronavirus) in 2020
 
Cheers. Ran a covid ward for 6 weeks until last week- 30 (of ~70) of our staff ended up infected. All scrupulous with PPE. I somehow dodged it. All back at work now, but several were quite ill and two admitted (one nurse admitted under me to our ward!).

I realised this week I haven't had a full week off (when I didn't have coronavirus) in 2020

Wow, that sounds so tough. :( I am trying to express my gratitude and respect, but it's hard to find words that do justice to what you and your colleagues are doing!

May I ask about the PPE situation? Are you actually being given proper PPE, or is it still the case that all care but the most exposing procedures are being done with just surgical masks? Or do you have access to FFP2 masks now and if not, do you know what the rationale is now that shortages are relieved?
 
1. Thanks, but I get paid well and have a great job. Its the HCAs, porters and domestics that deserve the thanks

2. All the Trusts in the country are adhering to Public Health England directions on PPE use- surgical masks, gloves and plastic aprons for all but "aerosol generating procedures". This is based on the mode of transmission being assumed to be droplet in the main, against which this is appropriate protection.
There is in reality a degree of aerisolised spread, but it is by far the lesser mode of transmission. We were probably unlucky and had several wandering patients unable to comply with mask usage and unable to protect their coughs.

3. Stocks are ok, but if gowns and ffp3 masks were required for normal care of covid positive or possible patients, stocks would run out in a very short time.
 
How about the vaccine, have you & your team received the first dose yet, kropotkin?
We are a hub so have been vaccinating for two weeks now (but not staff beyond high risk: diabetics, immunosuppressed, shielders etc). I think they should have prioritised HCAs and nurses on covid wards before anyone else (including the vulnerable elderly)

But it's all political and the system has to be seen to be prioritising those fucked over by the management of infections in care homes in the first wave
 
The respect and thanks to you and your colleagues were meant to include all the health care workers you mention :)

Some more general musings inspired by kropotkin's post: Seems to me that when there is a risk of wandering and coughing patients, current protection as per PHE guidelines is inadequate as surely those kind of eventualities of every day hospital reality ought to be planned in.
Almost half of staff getting infected sounds to me less like bad luck and more like systemic failings (and just in case it needs saying, I don't mean staff but PHE guidance).
I get that current stocks of PPE would run low again if everyone suddenly started using FFP2/3 instead of surgical mask, but surely if the NHS had attempted to buy enough of them in in the last six months, they could have been produced and supplied.

Seems mad that lack of PPE was a massive scandal at the start of the pandemic and now despite all these months to put it right, it's still not happening. That should me more of a scandal, rather than less!

Quick check on recommendations in Germany, looks like FFP2s are standard for working with patients with confirmed or suspected covid.
Chart for any German-speaking geeks

Ugh, I am aware that I am coming across as a right arm-chair hobby epidemiologist, but it's just so frustrating to sit helplessly at home on the umpteenth furlough without family or friends, watching this play out so painfully. :/
 
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I personally know 4 colleagues in my hospital who tested positive in the first wave who were reinfected in the last 2 months. This is much more common than we realise and less protection is conferred by prior infection.
Luckily (and oddly) there is good evidence that the vaccine gives more protection than prior infection.
This is part of the SIREN study which, in the main, involves NHS staff (here 11364). Of 1265 seropositives there were 3 apparent re-infections (after around 5-6 months) but on further testing and analysis it was determined that at least two of them could have had false positive results. Reinfections are definitely occurring (there are clear cases in the literature and, on the face of it, it appears to be happening amongst my colleagues as well) but possibly at lower numbers than false positives (test methodology, lab error, test sensitivity/specificity and, perhaps, recombination events) might suggest and, without sequencing at each stage, hard to confirm with a high degree of confidence.
 
Yes, it is entirely possible that the four never became seronegative and that's why they tested positive when they got the same syndrome again 6 months later. More likely (given the constellation of symptoms both times were at least clinically diagnosable as covid) is that they got taken down by a different serotype the second time.

On the first point: I've looked after at least 3 people still reliably pcr positive at 40 days post infection. Eventually the virologists, public health people and infection control decided they'd just relable them as negative given the inability of labs to culture live virus after 8 days.
 
I know they think it spread like this in Hong Kong with original SARS.

When I came back into China and was put into centralized quarantine, I was given some kind of tablets to put into the cistern of my toilet every day, and some sachets of powder. They told me to pour the powder on my shit before I flushed. :D :eek: :oops: So I guess the fecal transmission route is taken fairly seriously here.
Interesting, I haven't heard of anyone thinking of this in the UK, do you think we could be missing a trick?
 
Interesting, I haven't heard of anyone thinking of this in the UK, do you think we could be missing a trick?
In theory it shouldn't be possible if a plumbing system is working properly. The S bend you see under your washbasin contains a water seal that should make sure no gas inside the waste pipes ever gets into the interior of your dwelling. I don't know if there's something about Chinese plumbing systems that means things are different. But a skim read of the report suggests the transmission route would rely on water seals on things like floor drains having dried up. It might be that there are reasons this kind of situation is much less likely to arise in European buildings.
 
In theory it shouldn't be possible if a plumbing system is working properly. The S bend you see under your washbasin contains a water seal that should make sure no gas inside the waste pipes ever gets into the interior of your dwelling. I don't know if there's something about Chinese plumbing systems that means things are different. But a skim read of the report suggests the transmission route would rely on water seals on things like floor drains having dried up. It might be that there are reasons this kind of situation is much less likely to arise in European buildings.

There are a lot of rapidly constructed high-rise buildings... Poorer building regs and still poorer building control probably also a factor. In my - limited - experience, western toilets are standard. I know - to my infinite regret - that the plumbing is generally not as good, and that at least one apartment building uses this sort of setup:

toilet-plumbing-diagram-255x300.gif


I assume that's also used in the west, I'd only come across the type where the soil pipe comes out the back, which is considerably easier to service.

Oh, and yeah - washbasin plumbing can be fucking atrocious.
 
Yeah, that type of WC where it comes out the underside is not especially unusual here.

It's the functioning of other parts of the system that would be critical for this problem.
 
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