Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
That sounds like an extremely more complex issue than the original tweet would suggest.
Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
- Thread starter weltweit
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weltweit
Well-Known Member
I was talking to a pal who visited China last November. In his journey back he stopped over in the Philippines where he became quite ill. Still ill, he continued to the UK where he took to his bed for a good couple of weeks with a strong fever etc etc .. No one was talking about coronavirus then and I don't think he saw his doctor.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Latest version of the chart of some large European countries number of Covid-19 patients in hospital that I sporadically post here:
I have taken a bit of a look at Frances regional figures to establish what sort of trends and variations are behind the recent slowing of their decline in patient numbers. Looks like a mix of declines, stalled declines, relatively stable levels and increases.
Using data for France from Géodes - Santé publique France
I have taken a bit of a look at Frances regional figures to establish what sort of trends and variations are behind the recent slowing of their decline in patient numbers. Looks like a mix of declines, stalled declines, relatively stable levels and increases.
Using data for France from Géodes - Santé publique France
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
is the one that recently went up next to "ile de france" "auvergne-rhone-alpes"? (sorry can't tell which actual shade it is
)
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
France: no idea about bubbles but on chrirstams eve the breaking of curfew "will be tolerated" (french gov website wording) no street assemblies will be though, no curfew exceptions for NYE.
Curfew is 8pm to 6am
Country wide travel is again allowed from last Tuesday after 6 weeks of not being so, establishments allowed to open have to be closed by curfew time.
Not heard about a bubble system elsewhere which does not mean it does not exist.
The research team, led by Tulio de Oliveira, has shared its findings with the scientific community and alerted authorities in Britain, who have "studied their own samples and found that a similar mutation ... was the variant that was driving their resurgence in London," he said.
Oh fuck.
Supine
Newt Member
The research team, led by Tulio de Oliveira, has shared its findings with the scientific community and alerted authorities in Britain, who have "studied their own samples and found that a similar mutation ... was the variant that was driving their resurgence in London," he said.
Oh fuck.
Nothing suggests it is more severe as far as I know. A variant spreading is not the same as a variant behaving any different to existing versions.
"South African doctors have remarked that more patients are younger, and do not always have other conditions that amplify the virus' effect, but are nonetheless suffering from more severe forms of Covid-19."
From the article
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The research team, led by Tulio de Oliveira, has shared its findings with the scientific community and alerted authorities in Britain, who have "studied their own samples and found that a similar mutation ... was the variant that was driving their resurgence in London," he said.
Oh fuck.
I've just posted about the concerns in the UK, on the UK thread -
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
yep, a few minutes ago. from lambeth.gov. up 126% in 7 days. get tested if you have symptoms. Just got the same text. Don’t think I’ve received any previous texts from the gov about covid at all, have you?
www.urban75.net
Supine
Newt Member
Also from the article 'The global body said there was no indication there were changes in the way the new strain of the virus was behaving.'
prunus
Tick tock.
These two comments (no changes in behaviour, increased severe illness frequency in young people) are not mutually exclusive; increased contagiousness (which seems to be accepted) is likely due to improved binding caused by changes in the spike configuration - this in turn would make it more likely, once it’s got hold, to spread rapidly within the body, before even young people’s immune systems in some cases can contain it, hence increased occurance of severe disease.
It’s not behaving differently per se, just getting better at doing what it does.
The increased infection effectiveness has effects both within and between people
Supine
Newt Member
I'm yet to be convinced it has increased in contagiousness and I'm not sure it is accepted as a fact. It may be, but I haven't seen any evidence. PHE have said they need two weeks to analyse it before making pronouncements.
I think this story is the gov worried about tier messaging failing and the upcoming Christmas relation of rules. A scare tactic basically.
Well...that just means it's doing the same thing. But the indications are that higher proportions of younger people with no underlying conditions are becoming sicker with it.
Are you working in a medical capacity in South Africa? Or in a lab?
I can tell you Drs here are already on high alert for the 501.V2 Variant. Many people will be returning to Ireland and a high proportion will come via London.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Where is the evidence to support this claim?
Genomic surveillance experts will keep an eye on that side of things. Doctors that treat patients have very little to do with this side of things, and the current level of understanding about the implications of these strains is much too low to make confident claims about implications for patient case. Obviously doctors will be on the front lines of any response to large increases in infection, but such doctors will have been expecting that they might face a nasty winter wave anyway, regardless of strain changes.
My opinion will evolve as data and analysis becomes public. At this stage, with very limited info, the new strain talk does not change my view of the winter pandemic one bit. I also consider that the framing governments choose to apply to these new strains is a political matter at this stage, one that could be entirely detached from the underlying reality. Its being used both as an excuse for failing to keep things under control, and an excuse to u-turn on what measures they'd previously told the public and fellow politicians would be necesssary this winter, and go further. Epidemic waves of this virus seem quite capable of forcing such u-turns regardless of whether any properties of the virus have actually changed. The only question is whether there is any legitimacy to these new strain excuses, because there could be, but its too early to judge that bit. And even if there were no interesting new strains at all, a high degree of pandemic vigilance is required during winter.
Hospital Drs working in A&E and covid wards here have been alerted. I'm not in the UK. I dont know what other evidence you want? My brother is a dr working with covid 19 patients. Was talking with him last evening and he said they were made aware of this variant because of the potential for faster transmission and the potential for an increase in numbers of younger people ending up requiring hospitalization. The hospital he is in is one of the biggest covid 19 hospitals in the country. He and his colleagues have worked with covid patients since March. And they are concerned about the impact a more readily / rapidly transmitable version of this virus could have.
So yeah. Might be a bit too anecdotal for you as regards evidence? But I know my brother. He is well on the ball and is a biochemist along with being consultant physician. He is in constant contact with drs all over the world. They network and review cases every week.
Cant give you more than that.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Tier 4 for London to be announced...
UK thread over there >>>
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Portugal Xmas is on but there are New Year restrictions. New Year's Eve, from 31 December to 1 January, there will be a curfew from 11pm, an additional curfew will then come in from 1pm on 1, 2,and 3 January.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Portuguese Armed Forces helping out in old peoples homes, although I'm not exactly sure what they are doing tbh
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Not a very military looking haircut
Reno
The In Kraut
Looks like a woman to me, I don't think they make them have buzz cuts.Not a very military looking haircut
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Dr. Maria Salazar, a physician and a colonel in the Portuguese Air Force.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
I think you and elbows might be talking at cross purposes, here. Drs won't be on the lookout for the strain itself, as they're not doing genomic testing, (and I don't think that's what you meant). But I'm sure, as you say (including because you say it in regards to your brother) that they'll have been briefed to prepare for a surge in cases that might be due to a faster spreading strain, and on what's known of the strain thus far.
Sorry if I'm over- or under- or sideways interpreting either of you!
You are right. Where my brother workd they are watching for that vatiant. According to government scientists there is no sign of it yet in people tested recently here.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
Yay! I was going to say I'll take every positive I can get, but then I thought about it
The Dutch government has banned all passenger flights from Britain after finding the first case of a new, more infectious coronavirus strain that is circulating in the UK.
The ban, from 6am local time until 1 January, came hours after Britain announced a stay at home order for part of the country to slow the new variant.
"An infectious mutation of the Covid-19 virus is circulating in the United Kingdom. It is said to spread more easily and faster and is more difficult to detect," the Dutch health ministry said in a statement.
The Dutch public health body, the RIVM, therefore "recommends that any introduction of this virus strain from the United Kingdom be limited as much as possible by limiting and/or controlling passenger movements".
