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elbows said:
I wonder how many daily infections they think they really have there. Given that when the UK reached around 25k daily cases testing positive, estimates for how many daily infections there really are is around 53k-90k.
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I wonder why its so bad there :(
 
France currently at around 12000 hospital admissions a week, so nearly double the UK's current rate. Daily deaths so far remain relatively low, given that. That may be corrected later on, but it implies a lot of hospital survival there atm.

Czechia has not only lots of infections but also many deaths. It may be that the countries that mostly avoided the first wave are the most vulnerable to high deaths on the second.
 
frogwoman said:
www.europe1.fr

Coronavirus : des "arrivées soudaines" de malades dans des hôpitaux d'Île-de-France

"Il y a une très forte accélération, à la fois des contaminations et des entrées en réanimation" en Île-de-France, a indiqué le directeur de l'Agence régionale de Santé Aurélien Rousseau, dimanche midi sur Europe 1. D'après lui, plusieurs hôpitaux de la région ont vu arriver des vagues de...
www.europe1.fr www.europe1.fr
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C'est tres mal, mon ami? :confused:

Moi parlez Anglais seulement :( :oops:
 
frogwoman said:
Yeah please do. If you feel comfortable that is.
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nothing personal will come through so hey:

  • my mum thinks it should have been let to run rampant, she is quite happy (if not quite ready) to die having lived to 80 years of age and thinks the herd immunity should have been let to run its course (I make sure I don't shout at her but we've a lifelong history of disagreeing on a lot of stuff already so well practiced)
  • She spent most of the french lockdown playing cat and mouse with the police so she could keep playing bridge with her friends (all retired) at their houses. This is now on hold as 4 of their group have caught it (one being in hospital)...
  • She reckons the current curfew is stupid as people will just arrive at 5 to 9 to the party house and leave at 5 past 6. I haven't checked but am guessing this breaks other rules over there
  • She is mostly worried on the financial repercussion this has/will have on her family (my nieces should be starting internship/apprenticeship type of stuff now but none of that is available, my sister boiyfriend lost his job and can't find a new one, her ex can't find a job)
  • I doubt my nieces are following any of the rules despite wanting to protect their grandmother when it all kicked off but going over to her place to get away from paris then getting bored of provincial life so heading back to it...
So yeah, just anecdotal stuff, not sure how widespread this is but from my facebook feed a few fench people at least buy into this particular view or associated; that is before looking at the ones sharing conspiraloon type of stuff.
 
"There is a very strong acceleration, at the same time of contaminations and entries in intensive care" in Île-de-France, indicated the director of the Regional Health Agency Aurélien Rousseau, Sunday noon on Europe 1. According to him, several hospitals in the region have seen waves of coronavirus patients arrive in the last hours.

If that helps
 
frogwoman said:
I wonder why its so bad there :(
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I'm not really sure what there is to wonder about on that subject. France is just going the same way that so many other countries in Europe. Its bad in Spain, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK etc etc. Just slightly different timings and variations in how many regions of a particular country are affected, but mostly the same patterns really.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
France currently at around 12000 hospital admissions a week, so nearly double the UK's current rate. Daily deaths so far remain relatively low, given that. That may be corrected later on, but it implies a lot of hospital survival there atm.

Czechia has not only lots of infections but also many deaths. It may be that the countries that mostly avoided the first wave are the most vulnerable to high deaths on the second.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that the data going back to the first wave has always shown some big differences in hospital numbers coming out of France compared to the UK's numbers. Theirs have always been a lot higher, implying different measurements and/or different admissions and treatment policy. Including very big differences in the minimum level reached before the resurgence.

I have resurrected some old data and brought it up to date to illustrate that point. Number of people in hospital.

Screenshot 2020-10-25 at 21.54.24.png
 
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I need to add Italy to that graph when I get a chance as well since things are bad there too.

10h ago 13:40

Giuseppe Conte’s government has ordered the closure of gyms and swimming pools, and while bars and restaurants can offer takeaway services they must stop in-house dining from 6pm. Cinemas and theatres will also close but museums will stay open.

There will be no ban on inter-regional travel, although people have been strongly advised not to leave their homes unless for work, health or education purposes. Up to 75% of high school teaching should be done online to limit the number of pupils in schools, according to the new decree.

“The latest epidemiological data cannot leave us indifferent,” Conte said. “The analysis indicates a rapid growth, with the stress on the national health system at worrying levels.”
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I found a chance to do it. Except I think that to make them equivalent I probably need to add the ICU numbers to the Italian figures to get the proper number of people in hospital there, but even without that the graph should illustrate the point.

Screenshot 2020-10-25 at 23.55.54.png
 
elbows said:
Spains data usually doesnt fill me with much confidence but I've done what I can to add the recent form of it to the graph.

View attachment 235935
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That's useful, ta. I know Wales counts differently from England, hence Wales always looks worse by comparison because it counts suspected as well as confirmed cases. Perhaps France does the same.

tbh the biggest puzzle to me there isn't so much the different peaks, it's that France doesn't go anywhere near as low as either UK or Italy. That certainly suggests quite a different system.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
That's useful, ta. I know Wales counts differently from England, hence Wales always looks worse by comparison because it counts suspected as well as confirmed cases. Perhaps France does the same.

tbh the biggest puzzle to me there isn't so much the different peaks, it's that France doesn't go anywhere near as low as either UK or Italy. That certainly suggests quite a different system.
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Yeah I dont have an answer, except that their hospitalisation rates (admissions) during the trough dont seem hugely different to ours, and I machine translated the following from the data source I use for France:

Details:
1) Hospital data (source SI-VIC) are presented by date of declaration in Géodes.
2) Only people hospitalized or deceased in France are represented in Géodes. People hospitalized abroad are not represented in Géodes, although they are included in the Public Health France dashboard.
3) Until 03/31, instructions to healthcare facilities to create a patient record in SI-VIC were a biologically confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19.
Since 31/03, health establishments must systematically enter in SI-VIC hospitalized patients with a biologically confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 OR a chest CT suggestive of a COVID-19 diagnosis. However, an institution can create a patient record based on strong clinical suspicion or suggestive imagery, and then delete the record later if the test is negative.

Limits:
1) Certain patients, present in the hospital database at a given time, can therefore be removed from the database by health establishments when the patient's laboratory result is negative for Covid-19.
2) The case reporting system is not exhaustive and the number of reporting establishments varies over time.
 
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I suppose another possibility is that France doesnt hae the same criteria for removing people from the hospital numbers that we do. And whether our methodology for that is fair is something I cannot completely determine due to lack of detail, although I know of a place or two to look for detail on how ENgland does this and will post again on the subject if I find something of use.

To give a simple example, the numbers for hospital patients in Scotland were chnged a while back and the UK dashboard says the following about that change to the Scottish numbers:

On 11 September 2020 the data were updated to exclude people (in larger NHS Boards) who had previously tested positive for COVID-19 but remain in hospital for another reason.
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A time for celebration in Melbourne as our lockdown is set to end at midnight on Tuesday after zero new cases confirmed today. We've been in a pretty strict lockdown for just over three months. Can't wait to get out of the house without needing a reason, for as long as we like. There will of course still be lots of restrictions on indoor gatherings, particularly home gatherings, and rules around hospitality etc. but it's a good feeling!
Not going to lie, it was a pretty grim winter and now it's difficult looking at what's happening in the northern hemisphere, but I'm going to focus on the positives tonight :):beer:
 
retribution said:
A time for celebration in Melbourne as our lockdown is set to end at midnight on Tuesday after zero new cases confirmed today. We've been in a pretty strict lockdown for just over three months. Can't wait to get out of the house without needing a reason, for as long as we like. There will of course still be lots of restrictions on indoor gatherings, particularly home gatherings, and rules around hospitality etc. but it's a good feeling!
Not going to lie, it was a pretty grim winter and now it's difficult looking at what's happening in the northern hemisphere, but I'm going to focus on the positives tonight :):beer:
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at least they did the right move whereas our clown Bojo is once again dilly dallying like the fuckwit he is.
 
Friends back in Istanbul seem to be living life virtually normally - crowded bars, parties, etc. Yes, there's mandatory mask wearing, but they're not worn in bars/restaurants, obviously. Government still suppressing the figures there (the number of daily deaths never seems to change, which is just...bizarre). The only thing helping is a young population, but I can't comprehend how they went from full on curfew, can't leave the house, to virtual normality, albeit with a mask on.
 
elbows said:
I suppose another possibility is that France doesnt hae the same criteria for removing people from the hospital numbers that we do. And whether our methodology for that is fair is something I cannot completely determine due to lack of detail, although I know of a place or two to look for detail on how ENgland does this and will post again on the subject if I find something of use.

To give a simple example, the numbers for hospital patients in Scotland were chnged a while back and the UK dashboard says the following about that change to the Scottish numbers:
Click to expand...
Comparing across countries is fraught, of course, so perhaps a better method is to compare each country's level as a proportion of its own peak. Eg the UK is currently at around 40% of its peak, Spain at 50%, etc.
 
retribution said:
A time for celebration in Melbourne as our lockdown is set to end at midnight on Tuesday after zero new cases confirmed today. We've been in a pretty strict lockdown for just over three months. Can't wait to get out of the house without needing a reason, for as long as we like. There will of course still be lots of restrictions on indoor gatherings, particularly home gatherings, and rules around hospitality etc. but it's a good feeling!
Not going to lie, it was a pretty grim winter and now it's difficult looking at what's happening in the northern hemisphere, but I'm going to focus on the positives tonight :):beer:
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So happy for you guys, such good work! :)
 
Back when there used to be noises about how Germany controlled the virus in the first wave using contact tracing, I warned that even in Germany it had its limits, and I had seen at least one report that Germany had to abandon the contact tracing approach during the busiest phase of first wave infections. I never got confirmation of that though, so I wasnt too sure of those facts.

Anyway this time around I jsut saw something similar:

Meanwhile authorities in Berlin, which already for several weeks has been considered one of the nation’s coronavirus hotspots, have said they will veer away from tracking and tracing those infected with coronavirus due to a lack of resources, and will rely instead on infected persons taking responsibility for themselves and going into isolation at home as well as taking the initiative in contacting people with whom they have been in touch.
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39m ago 11:56
 
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