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Lucky all the hospitals in this country aren't running at over 90% of capacity already, if they were we'd be well and truly boned about now.

I know right. How the fuck can anyone who works in the NHS be confident we'll be able to cope with a large number of infected people? Normal winter pressures and it's touch and go whether it will collapse.
 
I know right. How the fuck can anyone who works in the NHS be confident we'll be able to cope with a large number of infected people? Normal winter pressures and it's touch and go whether it will collapse.

We've been lucky so far as it's been a winter barely worthy of the name. But it seems to be peak time all year round in hospitals these days.
 
We've been lucky so far as it's been a winter barely worthy of the name. But it seems to be peak time all year round in hospitals these days.

The flu peaked early in the UK this season, so at least a chunk of that burden is already in the past. I assume this is why the 'hospitals struggling to cope' stories came earlier in the season this time too.

There has been a bit of winter excess mortality though, but not anything like to the same degree as in a bad flu season.

A few of the charts from this weeks flu report (https://assets.publishing.service.g...kly_national_influenza_report_week_5_2020.pdf )

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Roche have developed diagnostic equipment already


Although there are reports that it is proving difficult to get them into locked down cities at the moment.
 
Honest question. Why? What good can come from it? It turning up in the UK was always inevitable and as a result we will likely have a number of cases here.

What will you do with the information? I'm not having a go I just think there is a danger of getting very worked up and worried about something we have no control over.
Oh no I just want to see the pattern of infections remains the same. I am not worked up about anything.
 
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Roche have developed diagnostic equipment already


Although there are reports that it is proving difficult to get them into locked down cities at the moment.

That type of test has been around for over 2 decades, including commercially. I dont know how long Roches version of the equipment has been around but its not new by any means.

When I say that, I'm talking about the various lab equipment used to be able to perform this type of testing.

So likely what they really mean is that they now also offer the appropriate Real-time PCR arrays to use with their existing range of equipment to detect this coronavirus. I expect that even before they offered this bit themselves, labs could still use their equipment to do this, they just needed the right primers/probes, and China had quickly come up with initial versions of these. But obviously its always useful to have multiple sources of supply, and to have manufacturers of the lab equipment used in the process fully on board.

Anyway this is a subject that I dont have direct lab experience of so it would be easy for me to get something wrong. Take my use of terminilogy with a pinch of salt. Mind you, I did skim through instructions provided by the CDC for performing this sort of test in relation to the new coronavirus. Some of the existing Roche equipment and kits I mentioned are listed in the Nucleic Acid Extraction section.


How reassuring it is to note that the world of silly product names and marketing is alive and well in this sector, but bleach will still do the job!
  • Acceptable surface decontaminants
    • DNAZapTM (Life Technologies, cat. #AM9890)
    • DNA AwayTM (Fisher Scientific; cat. #21-236-28)
    • RNAse AwayTM (Fisher Scientific; cat. #21-236-21
    • 10% bleach (1:10 dilution of commercial 5.25-6.0% sodium hypochlorite)
I am looking forward to doing my first live gig performing with the QIAamp® MinElute Virus Spin Kit ;)
 
Do they know how long the virus can live on surfaces?

Not this coronavirus in particular, but Im sure its expected to be the same as other coronaviruses where some of this research has been done in the past. I spoke about it the other day, though I am miles away from actually finding all the researh available on the subject.

Can certainly say that how long it can survive on surfaces and infect people is dependent on at least the following factors, and maybe some I dont know about:

What material the surface is made of.
Temperature.
Humidity.
Amount of virus deposited.
What sort of biological substances the gunk consists of apart from the virus itself.

The UK coach company seem tho have gone for 10 days as a period to leave their coaches unused after they have been deep cleaned. I expect this goes quite far beyond the scientific basis for caution. I expect the risk of infection from surfaces falls rather rapidly, there may be some virus left after several days, or maybe even 5 days with the right material, temperature and humidity, but whether it still exists at that time period in sufficient quantities to infect people is debatable.

Much of the emphasis regarding surfaces in real world infection-prevention is on suitable cleaning regimes, rather than how long the nasties will lurk if the cleaning isnt done. That and some attempts to promote the use of specific surface materials that arent kind to viruses or bacteria in various healthcare settings and some other environments with high public footfall rates. In terms of this latter stuff being promoted in ways that were somewhat visible to the public, go back some years to the focus on MRSA and measures to stop it lurking in hospitals etc.
 
Oh no I just want to see the pattern of infections remains the same. I am not worked up about anything.

It doesnt sound like the UK health authorities want to officially release much info about the specifics of positive cases. In this case some additional info is available in the media because the suspected cases falling ill at a hotel in York was already reported on before the test came back positive.
 
It doesnt sound like the UK health authorities want to officially release much info about the specifics of positive cases. In this case some additional info is available in the media because the suspected cases falling ill at a hotel in York was already reported on before the test came back positive.
Aha I hadn't heard anything about this hotel in York. Hopefully they will be tracing anyone this couple came into contact with.
 
I’ve seen BSE, Ebola, SARS, swine flu and bird flu come and go in my lifetime alone. The corona virus will amount to even less.
Pretty sure I read yesterday that more people have now died as a result of the corona virus than from SARS, so I won't pay too much attention to your ill informed nonsense
 
I suppose it could emerge anywhere. It existed in December, travel was unrestricted and some people could have had it and thought they only had a mild flu, in that time it could have travelled far and wide.

We know people can be infectious for 14 days before they show symptoms, but for how long overall can they be infectious? Presumably while they have the flu like symptoms they are still infectious, what about after that?
 
Aha I hadn't heard anything about this hotel in York. Hopefully they will be tracing anyone this couple came into contact with.

Sounds like some staff at the hotel committed one of the big sins in the field of public health communication:

Outside the hotel, two guests told the Guardian that as recently as Friday morning they had been told by reception staff the reports that two tourists had been taken ill from their apartment on Wednesday were “lies”.

“This morning they said it was a lie and not to listen to it,” said Andy Neale, 21, who is staying at StayCity for the night with his girlfriend. “It’s not ideal. They should’ve taken some precaution.”

A family who were staying in the hotel on a visit from Asia to see their daughter, who is a student in York, said they had been told the cases were “false information” when they asked staff if reports were true.

Helen Papakosta, 15, from Greece, showed reporters a video she had taken on her phone of people in hazmat suits arriving at the hotel on Thursday morning – presumably to deep clean the suite where the affected guests had been staying.

From the Guardian live updates page at Coronavirus live updates: returning Britons arrive at Wirral for quarantine
 
Do they know how long the virus can live on surfaces?
Further to what elbows has said, it probably makes sense to carry a hand sanitiser on you and clean your hands regularly when out and about, especially if you commute by public transport or are likely to touch door handles, hand railings etc at public buildings. Masks are good to a degree but if you take it off when you arrive at work or back home and then touch your face before washing your hands the mask will have been for nothing.
 
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tbh in the UK at the moment I wouldn't take any more precautions than washing my hands as often as I do at the moment. If there were a lot more cases here - it became widespread then perhaps think of more .. but so far we had two cases..
 
That type of test has been around for over 2 decades, including commercially. I dont know how long Roches version of the equipment has been around but its not new by any means.

Well that's kind of obvious isn't it. It's the setup to detect this particular virus in a couple of hours that's the key here. The existing test methods in China are overloaded hence the emergency development and shipment of new equipment.
 
I wonder what precautions were taken or could have been taken to protect the pilots and flight crew on the flights ferrying Europeans back from China. Are air filters on planes guaranteed to remove pathogens from the air?
 
Out of curiosity had a look on Amazon and a few other places for masks. Seem quite thin on the ground. Appear to be loads of sellers on ebay mind you.
 
The news is saying reductions in the US and UK stock markets are due to nervousness about the virus affecting Chinese production.
 
Well that's kind of obvious isn't it. It's the setup to detect this particular virus in a couple of hours that's the key here. The existing test methods in China are overloaded hence the emergency development and shipment of new equipment.

There isnt much I am treating as obvious on this thread. And I certainly wont be assuming that there is new equipment involved in this (extra quantities of equipment yes, new models of equipment no). How long this sort of test with this sort of equipment takes to perform is not new either. Its good to know when providers can quickly offer more capacity to those that need it, and I'm not trying to downplay the usefulness of additional capacity.

But this stuff is the business press, journalism by press release, its advertising and marketing, its spin. There will be little nuggets of interesting reality in there but I have to go out of my way to learn stuff about the broader subject in order to even begin to differentiate between what is actually new and improved, and what is just hype. And I'm not going to get it all right, so I wont go down this track too often, rest assured.
 
And sorry if my tone is snotty, there is too much actual snot in my life right now! Looking forward to a break from this subject over the weekend providing there are no major developments.
 
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