Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

[littlebabyjesus]

The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.

Presumably Hancock's target of 100,000 per day by the end of the month involves decentralising the system? I've not read anything about how exactly he expects to achieve this. Meanwhile, Germany's target for that point is 200,000 per day, fwiw. And they'll probably hit theirs.

But ultimately that has to be the key to ending this. It's not a coincidence that it is countries that have been aggressively testing that are the first to announce plans to ease lockdown - Austria this week, Switzerland in two weeks' time. You need to have a test-trace-isolate system in place before easing lockdown, surely. UK is going to be last to the party again, by the looks of things.

 

[weltweit]

Assuming UK does not embrace a technical solution human tracing test and isolation will have to be used and my understanding is that it takes many tens of thousands of tracers to be effective with a large population. Luckily there are plenty of unemployed, furloughed and the army is available, so it could be done with a massive effort.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Assuming UK does not embrace a technical solution human tracing test and isolation will have to be used and my understanding is that it takes many tens of thousands of tracers to be effective with a large population. Luckily there are plenty of unemployed, furloughed and the army is available, so it could be done with a massive effort.

It's not just about finding people. It's also about supporting them once they have been found. That's where there is the possibility of adapting, rather than copying, the SK system. You trace and isolate, then you provide daily support to those in isolation. More of a carrot than a stick measure wrt enforcing quarantine. If the army is to get involved, they need to take off their uniforms. This is not a military emergency, and I for one do not want to see it becoming one. I don't want soldiers at my door, thankyou.

It will get ugly. We're already seeing petty, vindictive people reporting all kinds of minor infractions on lockdown. Multiply that by 10 when we have an isolation programme in place. This shit is going to leave scars.

 

[weltweit]

It's not just about finding people. It's also about supporting them once they have been found. That's where there is the possibility of adapting, rather than copying, the SK system. You trace and isolate, then you provide daily support to those in isolation. More of a carrot than a stick measure wrt enforcing quarantine. If the army is to get involved, they need to take off their uniforms. This is not a military emergency, and I for one do not want to see it becoming one. I don't want soldiers at my door, thankyou.

Interesting. Me I would prefer army in uniform contact tracing with me than I would plod in their uniforms!

 

[Azrael]

It's not just about finding people. It's also about supporting them once they have been found. That's where there is the possibility of adapting, rather than copying, the SK system. You trace and isolate, then you provide daily support to those in isolation. More of a carrot than a stick measure wrt enforcing quarantine. If the army is to get involved, they need to take off their uniforms. This is not a military emergency, and I for one do not want to see it becoming one. I don't want soldiers at my door, thankyou.

It will get ugly. We're already seeing petty, vindictive people reporting all kinds of minor infractions on lockdown. Multiply that by 10 when we have an isolation programme in place. This shit is going to leave scars.

I'd like to see all of this, including isolation, to be as minimally coercive as possible. As you say, a crucial component of finding people is helping them. Germany not only isolates, but ensures that people's symptoms are monitored, and an ambulance sent if there's any concerns about sudden deterioration. Exactly the kind of proactive and compassionate approach we need.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Interesting. Me I would prefer army in uniform contact tracing with me than I would plod in their uniforms!

It doesn't have to be either. This is not a criminal matter, or doesn't have to be be. Just as people have very largely voluntarily supported social distancing, so the majority of those told to quarantine will want to comply. Given the correct support, they should be able to comply.

 

[weltweit]

It doesn't have to be either. This is not a criminal matter, or doesn't have to be be. Just as people have very largely voluntarily supported social distancing, so the majority of those told to quarantine will want to comply. Given the correct support, they should be able to comply.

I am afraid I have seen examples of people either through stupidity or wanton disobedience who have flouted the current instructions. One woman who returned from northern Italy a few weeks ago and was told to self isolate for 14 days. She didn't go to work but she attempted to continue going to her book / reading group because that was somehow different, also people in a house with a member with suspected covid-19 going to the shops despite that they should all have been fully isolating for 14 days. In this case I think they were muddling the advice because visits to the shops are permitted for those on lockdown but not for those with a suspected case of covid-19.

Some level of checking and enforcement will have to work alongside more gentle monitoring otherwise spread will continue.

Even in places like South Korea or China I believe there has been some level of enforcement.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I am afraid I have seen examples of people either through stupidity or wanton disobedience who have flouted the current instructions. One woman who returned from northern Italy a few weeks ago and was told to self isolate for 14 days. She didn't go to work but she attempted to continue going to her book / reading group because that was somehow different, also people in a house with a member with suspected covid-19 going to the shops despite that they should all have been fully isolating for 14 days. In this case I think they were muddling the advice because visits to the shops are permitted for those on lockdown but not for those with a suspected case of covid-19.

Some level of checking and enforcement will have to work alongside more gentle monitoring otherwise spread will continue.

Even in places like South Korea or China I believe there has been some level of enforcement.

There has been major enforcement in SK and China - hence the app. Also, a few weeks ago is very different from today. A few weeks ago almost everybody here was far more blase about this.

 

[frogwoman]

'Stop waiting for Putin': Russian president takes backseat in crisis

Putin is working remotely and mainly focusing on cushioning blow to Russian economy

www.theguardian.com

 

[zahir]

Greece - lockdown/key workers PR

 

[elbows]

We are at the stage where countries in europe that avoided having huge, raging epidemics in the first place, are looking at easing certain restrictions. Lots of devilish detail though, I will watch with interest.

Coronavirus: Why Denmark is taking steps to open up again

Danish schools will reopen soon, but curbs will only be lifted gradually.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[miss direct]

Well, only two hours left of our 48 hour lockdown here in Turkey. And by lockdown, I mean you can not go out AT ALL, police, army and nightwatchmen patrolling the streets to make sure. I'll be going for a very long walk tomorrow. Who knows when they will do this again?

 

[weltweit]

A little more about New Zealand

1,049 confirmed cases
14 in hospital
4 dead

A thousand cases is enough to spark a significant epidemic so it is interesting that so far there are only 4 deaths. The biggest grouping of cases, 330 are in the 20-29 age group.

By ethnicity European or other make up 979 of the cases.

They have tested 61,467 and have 66,712 tests in stock.

from 12/04/2020 COVID-19 - current cases
The cases seem to have spread across the north and south islands but hospitalisations are spread thinly around different facilities.

Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April

The number of new cases has dropped and recoveries are on the rise as New Zealand nears three weeks in lockdown. There have been four Covid-19 deaths.
..
New Zealand is in its 19th day of alert Level 4 status - a full lockdown set to last at least four weeks. Only essential services remain open and movement is restricted.

..
PM Jacinda Ardern will make a decision on whether we will move from alert level 4 to 3 on 20 April.

from 13/04/2020 Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April


Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because, unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader
An article in the Independent by Alastair Campbell

The Washington Post this week carried a headline about a country that “is not just squashing the curve – it’s flattening it”. The country in question is not the United States, not the UK, Italy, Germany or Japan, all of which continue to cope with large numbers of cases and deaths. It is New Zealand. At the time of writing, they have had just over a thousand cases of Covid-19, and four deaths. Leadership matters in a crisis, and New Zealand’s leader, prime minister Jacinda Ardern, can surely take considerable credit for this thus far hugely impressive outcome.
..

“If there was an election tomorrow, Jacinda would win every seat. She has put the whole country in strict lockdown, and because of the way she has conducted herself, and explained it, approval ratings for her and the policy are through the roof.”
..
In this rugby-obsessed nation, unsurprisingly, one of the central messages sounded like something from an All Blacks team talk: “We go hard, we go early.”

..
She spelled out how the government would do both contact tracing, and testing, and insisted that the more rigorous they were on all fronts, the likelier it was the lockdown could be lifted earlier. “We will do everything to protect you; I’m asking you to do all you can to protect all of us,” she added, with a Kennedy-esque touch.
..

Locked away at home for 23 hours a day, I spend many of those hours studying different world leaders as they deal with the Covid-19 challenge. Ardern is the only one who seems to be smiling as much in the crisis as she does in what might be termed normal times. It seems to help her, and New Zealand, get through it.

from 11/04/2020 Alastair Campbell: Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader


New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country is ‘turning a corner’ in the battle against coronavirus after recording the lowest number of new cases in three weeks.

Ms Ardern suggested the four-week lockdown could be softened in just over a weeks’ time, allowing some to return to work if social distancing rules can be maintained.
..

All new arrivals into the country were ordered into quarantine as early as March 14 and cruise ships were banned. Within days all non-residents and non-citizens were banned from entering the country altogether. Ms Ardern has now ruled that citizens returning home will now spend 14 days in an ‘approved facility’.

from 10/04/2020 New Zealand preparing to end lockdown after success in coronavirus battle

 

[zahir]

Some figures for the outbreak in Greece.

Greece improved its global position on COVID-19 cases and deaths - Keep Talking Greece

Greece 's comparative position in the global ranking of Covid-19 cases and deaths is constantly decl

www.keeptalkinggreece.com

 

[peterkro]

A little more about New Zealand

1,049 confirmed cases
14 in hospital
4 dead

A thousand cases is enough to spark a significant epidemic so it is interesting that so far there are only 4 deaths. The biggest grouping of cases, 330 are in the 20-29 age group.

By ethnicity European or other make up 979 of the cases.

They have tested 61,467 and have 66,712 tests in stock.

from 12/04/2020 COVID-19 - current cases
The cases seem to have spread across the north and south islands but hospitalisations are spread thinly around different facilities.

Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April

from 13/04/2020 Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April


Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because, unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader
An article in the Independent by Alastair Campbell

from 11/04/2020 Alastair Campbell: Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader


New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country is ‘turning a corner’ in the battle against coronavirus after recording the lowest number of new cases in three weeks.

from 10/04/2020 New Zealand preparing to end lockdown after success in coronavirus battle

Not directlyy relevant but there are rumblings about authoritarianism by some in NZ.Given the breaking news about the use of NHS use of confidential data I'm wondering just what sort of societies will exist after the virus has run its course:

The Coronavirus State: New Zealand And Authoritarian Rumblings

It’s all about the lever of balance. Laws made for public protection, within which public health features prominently, provide grounds for derogation authorities can exploit. Like plasticine, the scope of power during times of an emergency extends. ...

www.scoop.co.nz

 

[Azrael]

A little more about New Zealand

1,049 confirmed cases
14 in hospital
4 dead

A thousand cases is enough to spark a significant epidemic so it is interesting that so far there are only 4 deaths. The biggest grouping of cases, 330 are in the 20-29 age group.

By ethnicity European or other make up 979 of the cases.

They have tested 61,467 and have 66,712 tests in stock.

from 12/04/2020 COVID-19 - current cases
The cases seem to have spread across the north and south islands but hospitalisations are spread thinly around different facilities.

Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April

from 13/04/2020 Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April


Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because, unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader
An article in the Independent by Alastair Campbell

from 11/04/2020 Alastair Campbell: Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader


New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country is ‘turning a corner’ in the battle against coronavirus after recording the lowest number of new cases in three weeks.

from 10/04/2020 New Zealand preparing to end lockdown after success in coronavirus battle

Ardern's volcanic reaction to the idea of using an epidemic to create "herd immunity" in New Zealand is something to behold. If it's naive to expect our leaders to react like this, I'm glad to be so.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not directlyy relevant but there are rumblings about authoritarianism by some in NZ.Given the breaking news about the use of NHS use of confidential data I'm wondering just what sort of societies will exist after the virus has run its course:

The Coronavirus State: New Zealand And Authoritarian Rumblings

It’s all about the lever of balance. Laws made for public protection, within which public health features prominently, provide grounds for derogation authorities can exploit. Like plasticine, the scope of power during times of an emergency extends. ...

www.scoop.co.nz

This is tough, isn't it? The argument here would be some authoritarianism now is better than a lot of authoritarianism later. If it works, and NZ 'does a South Korea' or even better than that, it will be vindicated, I think. Surprised to hear myself say that, but these are surprising times.

 

[Azrael]

This is tough, isn't it? The argument here would be some authoritarianism now is better than a lot of authoritarianism later. If it works, and NZ 'does a South Korea' or even better than that, it will be vindicated, I think. Surprised to hear myself say that, but these are surprising times.

I'm certainly against oppressive measures such as warrantless searches (unless there's exigency, which may be a requirement for N.Z.'s powers, the article isn't clear), but the article's civil liberties arguments would better convince if it unequivocally praised Ardern for taking the bold step of using her power to purge the coronavirus from New Zealand's shores. The right to life is, after all, the liberty on which all others rest.

 

[weltweit]

This is tough, isn't it? The argument here would be some authoritarianism now is better than a lot of authoritarianism later. If it works, and NZ 'does a South Korea' or even better than that, it will be vindicated, I think. Surprised to hear myself say that, but these are surprising times.

Just a point, afaict South Korea hasn't yet implemented a lockdown so the two countries responses differ.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Just a point, afaict South Korea hasn't yet implemented a lockdown so the two countries responses differ.

Indeed. I was thinking in terms of results more than methods. NZ is 'aiming for zero' as SK did.

 

[weltweit]

Indeed. I was thinking in terms of results more than methods. NZ is 'aiming for zero' as SK did.

It still boils my piss when the science officers put up that chart of deaths by nation and South Korea is blatantly way way down at the bottom yet not a single journalist asks what lessons we have or should learn from it?

I am not even sure if they would have a satisfactory answer but it would at least acknowledge the outlier in the deaths chart that is SK, that there is another way.

 

[editor]

Sweden's experiment is looking a bit worrying, but Boris has a fucking shitload to answer for.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[weltweit]

Our line is clearly still going in the wrong direction.

 

[little_legs]

The governments of top 2 are the herd immunity fans

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Clearly the modellers disapprove of anything short of lockdown.

I don't see a reason to predict the UK being much worse than Spain, though. We may be headed for something in between Spain and Italy, which would still be my guess. I also don't see where they get the confidence to put Belgium below Spain. Belgium is in a right old state at the moment. Shame Belgium isn't on editor's graph above - it would not look pretty.

Also odd to omit Switzerland from that table. And what makes them put Poland so high? Only fans of some countries' lockdown policies clearly.

Aaand, the figures for Spain and Italy are hopelessly optimistic - they're already nearly there, and that's not even accounting for the yet-to-be-accounted deaths.

tbh that table's figures look like someone's pulled them out of somebody else's arse.

 

[little_legs]

China is cracking down on Black people due to racist fears they are spreading the virus

Africans in Guangzhou on edge as coronavirus fears spark anti-foreigner sentiment in China

The African community in Guangzhou is on edge after widespread accounts were shared on social media of people being left homeless this week, as they say China's warnings against imported coronavirus cases stoke anti-foreigner sentiment.

edition.cnn.com

 

[weltweit]

Yes little_legs I read that also. Awful that people can pick on differences like this. It sounds as if African nationals are really in trouble there now with many having no place to go and apparently no way to leave.

 

[xes]

So shortly after so many Chinese people were facing the same stupid.

 

[miss direct]

Xenophobia and racism related to this seems to be a big problem. Here in Turkey I’ve had foreign friends insulted at the supermarket and people moving away from them. Much like what was happening to Chinese (or people who appeared to be) in the UK earlier in the year. I’m always semi grateful that until I open my mouth, I blend in here.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Yes little_legs I read that also. Awful that people can pick on differences like this.

BBC News was asking a UK doctor about the higher instance of BAME patients during the epidemic. He confirmed (anecdotally, albeit) that they are seeing a higher proportion of minorities, but pointed out they have no idea what the underlying reasons are, since it could easily be socio-economic or even diet related.