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Yossarian said:
I think population size is about where the similarities end - Wuhan was fully locked down, with travel in and out halted, at a time when the whole of China had less than 1% as many confirmed coronavirus cases as the UK does now. Contacts were extensively traced and the lockdown was enforced by an authoritarian state with world-leading facial recognition technology, etc. and zero respect for human rights.

In London, there are thousands upon thousands of cases and trains out are leaving every few minutes.
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I'm finding it difficult to see how contact tracing would work in London. How do you deal with someone traveling by train then tube, working in a big office with a trip out at lunchtime to grab a sandwich. They are going to have had contact with hundreds of people.
 
T & P said:
Interesting demographics in that travelling party. Seven men in their 40s and 50s, and three women in their 20s. I’m sure they are the daughters or nieces of some of the men, and this was just a big family holiday.
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There'll be a 'sex worker service users - the invisible victims - how are they coping' article in the guardian.
 
Anju said:
I'm finding it difficult to see how contact tracing would work in London. How do you deal with someone traveling by train then tube, working in a big office with a trip out at lunchtime to grab a sandwich. They are going to have had contact with hundreds of people.
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Indeed in some cases it will be very difficult - but aside from months long lockdown until a vaccine is proven we don't have so many options.

And this is an issue for every country, South Korea reported that for their first 30 cases they contact traced them quite sensibly and without great drama, but case 31 proved to be a dramatic change, case 31 was a super spreader, they visited people in hospital, went to church more than once and went basically all over the place spreading the virus as they went. Quite quickly after they identified case 31 they found they were then dealing with not 31 cases but more than 2,000.
 
Last edited:
More on South Korea

Why is South Korea beating coronavirus? Its citizens hold the state to account
The widely lauded policy of testing, tracing and treating has its roots in Koreans’ expectation of high-quality public services
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Korean politics since the 1990s can thus be characterised as a period during which citizens became increasingly emboldened in their relationship with the state, forcing governments to take their wellbeing seriously. One area that this has been the most conspicuous is in public transportation, energy and healthcare. For the average person, these are everyday services that all citizens have the right to enjoy, and which are paid for by taxpayers’ money.
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The coronavirus crisis plunging Europe into chaos has shattered this idealised image. As far as Koreans are concerned, this has been a vindication of a supposed “Korean model” which they have fought for over many years. It is unlikely that it will go away anytime soon.
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from 11/04/2020 Why is South Korea beating coronavirus? Its citizens hold the state to account | Tae Hoon Kim

Lessons from South Korea
South Korea experienced a surge of patients in mid-February largely due to a mass infection in a big church in the south-east region. Korea responded swiftly to the epidemic and has managed to slow the widespread COVID-19 infection.
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Transparent communication was essential as it helped the public fully trust the government and comply with government recommendations.
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Most people voluntarily followed government recommendations on social distancing, wearing masks and hand washing, even without major restrictive measures. There was no stockpiling by consumers.
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The government did not implement severe restrictive measures, such as lockdowns. There has been no ban on the entry of air travelers from specific countries or regions, except Hubei, China.
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Instead of very restrictive measures, a policy of extensive tracing was adopted. When a person tests positive, all paths are traced to check where and when a patient visited. This includes checking visited restaurants or modes of transportation (including specific bus or subway routes and lines). The government uses all types of information, such as credit card payment, mobile phones, and closed channel cameras. Text messages are then sent by local and district government to all residents, encouraging those who were exposed to the contacts to self-isolate or get tested, contributing to the reduction of infection.
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The extensive tracing of contacts can be controversial from a privacy perspective. Businesses may be negatively impacted when they lose customers due to reports that a positive COVID-19 patient has visited a local restaurant or shop. However, the contact tracing was, and still is, widely supported by the public.
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The government adopted mass testing for early detection. At the end of January, the government met with test kit producers and agreed on the need to produce the kit rapidly. Test kits were made available in early February thanks to a fast-track approval. In about six weeks, more than 300,000 people were tested.
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from 31/03/2020 COVID-19: Lessons from South Korea

There is a lot more in this article about how South Korea has behaved in terms of response to covid-19 and if you are interested in how they have achieved their results so far it is worth a read.
 
weltweit said:
More on South Korea

Why is South Korea beating coronavirus? Its citizens hold the state to account

from 11/04/2020 Why is South Korea beating coronavirus? Its citizens hold the state to account | Tae Hoon Kim

Lessons from South Korea

from 31/03/2020 COVID-19: Lessons from South Korea

There is a lot more in this article about how South Korea has behaved in terms of response to covid-19 and if you are interested in how they have achieved their results so far it is worth a read.
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Outstanding piece, that slays a brigade of lazy myths about South Korea, including some extremely dubious, borderline-Orientalist assertions about "culture".

For me, this quote's key: "Korean politics since the 1990s can thus be characterised as a period during which citizens became increasingly emboldened in their relationship with the state, forcing governments to take their wellbeing seriously."

As the article so rightly says, we've become complacent and have started to abandon values that Koreans, with their relatively recent experience of dictatorship, hold dear. We need some damn humility, and a willingness to learn from others.
 
After Azrael's post here Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion about New Zealand I thought I might find some articles.

This seems a government page with status of programs like their lockdown and various instructions: Home

Elimination: what New Zealand's coronavirus response can teach the world
New Zealand now appears to be the only “western” nation following an articulated elimination strategy with the goal of completely ending transmission of Covid-19 within its borders.
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Most cases are now returning travellers, who are safely quarantined at the borders, and the few remaining case clusters in the community are being traced and further spread stamped out. But it is far too soon to claim victory, and the country is remaining under an intense lockdown to support the elimination effort.
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On 23 March New Zealand committed to an elimination strategy. Both countries had relatively low case numbers at that time: New Zealand had reported 102 cases and no deaths and Australia had reported 1396 cases and 10 deaths. On that day the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, announced that New Zealand was going to rapidly escalate levels of physical distancing and travel restrictions, reaching the level of a full national lockdown on 26 March (level four on the alert scale).
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This period gave us much needed time to ramp up the critical measures required for elimination to work (more rigorous quarantine at the borders, expanded testing and contact tracing, and additional surveillance measures to provide assurance for when elimination had been achieved).
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One critical success factor that is, unfortunately, harder to guarantee is high-quality political leadership. The brilliant, decisive and humane leadership of Ardern was instrumental in New Zealand’s rapid change in direction with its response to Covid-19 and the remarkably efficient implementation of the elimination strategy.
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from 10/04/2020 Elimination: what New Zealand's coronavirus response can teach the world | Michael Baker and Nick Wilson

Again a large article, worth reading, snippets above are only a bit of it.
 
If a series of countries succeed in domestic elimination, it's at least conceivable that rigid 14 day quarantine for new arrivals could, with the greatest possible caution, be reconsidered. There are no guarantees, but fighting this virus with all we have is, is nothing else, a moral imperative.
 
Azrael said:
If a series of countries succeed in domestic elimination, it's at least conceivable that rigid 14 day quarantine for new arrivals could, with the greatest possible caution, be reconsidered. There are no guarantees, but fighting this virus with all we have is, is nothing else, a moral imperative.
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I can recall calling for bans on inward travel from hot spots early in UKs experience with the virus, flights were still arriving from China at that stage which seemed crazy to me. Then there were some flights that ended up in quarantine, I don't recall the details. Presently I imagine there might be some to none flights arriving because most airlines have closed. I assume there are no incoming flights now?

Well China seems to have now achieved almost elimination.
 
weltweit said:
I can recall calling for bans on inward travel from hot spots early in UKs experience with the virus, flights were still arriving from China at that stage which seemed crazy to me. Then there were some flights that ended up in quarantine, I don't recall the details. Presently I imagine there might be some to none flights arriving because most airlines have closed. I assume there are no incoming flights now?

Well China seems to have now achieved almost elimination.
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I checked Virgin Airlines today and they're selling returns to New York. Not sure how full the planes were but they were sold out for a few days as I recall.
 
weltweit said:
I can recall calling for bans on inward travel from hot spots early in UKs experience with the virus, flights were still arriving from China at that stage which seemed crazy to me. Then there were some flights that ended up in quarantine, I don't recall the details. Presently I imagine there might be some to none flights arriving because most airlines have closed. I assume there are no incoming flights now?

Well China seems to have now achieved almost elimination.
Click to expand...
The "herd immunity" insanity was, we now know, at its height in Whitehall at this time, which explains Britain's gross negligence; but when it comes to flight bans, the WHO, admirable in many respects in its response to the coronavirus, hasn't covered itself in glory, recommending against them for too long. Taiwan didn't mess around, and flights were restricted early. All the countries that've avoided epidemics appear to've included travel restrictions in their battery of measures.
 
I am sure there could be circumstances herd immunity might be viable, but this virus isn't one of them.

I saw WHO not arguing for travel shutdown. I suspect like UK Gov they are influenced by practical and or economic arguments and could see the travel industry would be decimated. WHO current guidelines on masks I believe is based on the practical angle that people can't get them, more than that they aren't effective which they patently are. Masks protect others from the wearer and the wearer from others. Why otherwise would healthcare workers on covid-19 wards all wear masks!

Travel restrictions I agree with but the UK travel industry is massive and again I suspect the UK government wanted to avoid mandating closures to airports etc .. instead they preferred airlines to shut down on their own accord. I wonder if that way government is less liable for compensation. Cynical?
 
weltweit said:
I am sure there could be circumstances herd immunity might be viable, but this virus isn't one of them.

I saw WHO not arguing for travel shutdown. I suspect like UK Gov they are influenced by practical and or economic arguments and could see the travel industry would be decimated. WHO current guidelines on masks I believe is based on the practical angle that people can't get them, more than that they aren't effective which they patently are. Masks protect others from the wearer and the wearer from others. Why otherwise would healthcare workers on covid-19 wards all wear masks!

Travel restrictions I agree with but the UK travel industry is massive and again I suspect the UK government wanted to avoid mandating closures to airports etc .. instead they preferred airlines to shut down on their own accord. I wonder if that way government is less liable for compensation. Cynical?
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Unless it's destroyed by an international effort to achieve elimination via test-trace-isolate methods (which is what did for SARS, but its successor has, of course, spread massively further), herd immunity in its proper sense of vaccination being high enough to so starve SARS-CoV-2 of hosts that it can't reach the unvaccinated will be essential to defeating it. The phrase is so toxic they'll probably have to call it someone else now. Answers on a postcard.

Also have my suspicions about airlines' undue influence, although like so much in this pandemic, it's proven ruinously self-defeating. If they'd gotten behind an international flight ban right at the start, who knows how much the coronavirus' spread could've been limited, and how much earlier they could've started flying again. As it is, many will go under.
 
Azrael said:
Unless it's destroyed by an international effort to achieve elimination via test-trace-isolate methods (which is what did for SARS, but its successor has, of course, spread massively further), herd immunity in its proper sense of vaccination being high enough to so starve SARS-CoV-2 of hosts that it can't reach the unvaccinated will be essential to defeating it. The phrase is so toxic they'll probably have to call it someone else now. Answers on a postcard.
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Vaccines are apparently, if successful, 18 months away, I posted a snippet from a paper referenced by SAGE earlier which said they expected lockdown to continue perhaps on and off for at least a year with perhaps the overall duration of half of that year in a tight lockdown. I don't know if they have revised their thinking since, it was a pdf from mid March iirc.

Azrael said:
Also have my suspicions about airlines' undue influence, although like so much in this pandemic, it's proven ruinously self-defeating. If they'd gotten behind an international flight ban right at the start, who knows how much the coronavirus' spread could've been limited, and how much earlier they could've started flying again. As it is, many will go under.
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I think Boris's government was loath to suppress business in any way until there really was no alternative. I recall people saying that we were doing really well compared to China, then compared to Italy etc etc .. they didn't have the forsight to see what was coming nor the stomach for the hard medicine that needed doling out to save lives.
 
The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.

There's been reports of researchers being optimistic of a vaccine by the Autumn, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see one earlier than 18 months -- amazing what you can do with relaxed regulations and near-unlimited resources -- but can't be relied on. Even if SARS-CoV-2 can't be eradicated without a vaccine, aggressive elimination programmes could both save Iives, and make vaccination much easier when one arrives.

The underlying principle with both vaccination and quarantine's the same: destroy a virus in the general population by starving it of hosts. The two are, ultimately, facets of the same strategy, and one another's constant allies.
 
Azrael said:
The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.
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Interesting and true I am sure. Back in 2016 there was a simulation exercise (I forget the name) for emergency services in which a viral epidemic was simulated and lessons for example we don't have enough ventilators were learnt (though not acted on). It seems limited testing could / should have been flagged up back then? I will see if I can find it again.
 
Azrael said:
There's been reports of researchers being optimistic of a vaccine by the Autumn, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see one earlier than 18 months -- amazing what you can do with relaxed regulations and near-unlimited resources -- but can't be relied on. Even if SARS-CoV-2 can't be erradicated without a vaccine, aggressive elimination programmes could both save Iives, and make vaccination much easier when one arrives.
Click to expand...
Yes it is true, resources are being thrown at it, I imagine a successful company / consortia will make humongous profits if their vaccine gets approved.
 
Azrael said:
The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.

There's been reports of researchers being optimistic of a vaccine by the Autumn, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see one earlier than 18 months -- amazing what you can do with relaxed regulations and near-unlimited resources -- but can't be relied on. Even if SARS-CoV-2 can't be eradicated without a vaccine, aggressive elimination programmes could both save Iives, and make vaccination much easier when one arrives.

The underlying principle with both vaccination and quarantine's the same: destroy a virus in the general population by starving it of hosts. The two are, ultimately, facets of the same strategy, and one another's constant allies.
Click to expand...

The other thing that could lead to relaxation of the rules might be an improvement in the survival rate, achieved through refining clinical techniques for treatment and perhaps discovering beneficial antivirals. There’s probably a death rate that is ‘acceptable’ to society as with flu etc. (and I suspect quite a higher figure acceptable to the current government). Death rate may also tail off a little as the proportion of vulnerable victims available to it in society declines.
 
Dogsauce said:
The other thing that could lead to relaxation of the rules might be an improvement in the survival rate, achieved through refining clinical techniques for treatment and perhaps discovering beneficial antivirals. There’s probably a death rate that is ‘acceptable’ to society as with flu etc. (and I suspect quite a higher figure acceptable to the current government). Death rate may also tail off a little as the proportion of vulnerable victims available to it in society declines.
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Hospitalisation rate is always going to be a problem though. Particularly if we see a summer dip, then winter rebound alongside seasonal flu.
 
Dogsauce said:
The other thing that could lead to relaxation of the rules might be an improvement in the survival rate, achieved through refining clinical techniques for treatment and perhaps discovering beneficial antivirals. There’s probably a death rate that is ‘acceptable’ to society as with flu etc. (and I suspect quite a higher figure acceptable to the current government). Death rate may also tail off a little as the proportion of vulnerable victims available to it in society declines.
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Drugs can certainly lower the death rate, but they're not an alternative to elimination, they're a tool to limit the losses while we get there. Even the best antivirals will fail all too often, or cases will be missed until after their window of opportunity is closed. However much drugs limit its damage this coronavirus remains a deadly SARS infection that can't be allowed to spread.

Or the concise version: prevention beats cure.
 
Cid said:
Hospitalisation rate is always going to be a problem though. Particularly if we see a summer dip, then winter rebound alongside seasonal flu.
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Absolutely.

Even if we went this route (reliant on antivirals of amazing effectiveness becoming rapidly available), a massive testing and tracing regime would be needed to catch cases early enough for antivirals to work. In which case, you'd be breaking chains of transmission, and running a de facto elimination strategy regardless of intent.
 
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