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Cid
Proper break this time
I was going to say academics working in very specific areas of scientific research do sometimes have something of a blind spot in other areas. But the man seems to be a professor in environmental politics, fuck him off pronto.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I think they know what conditions are required to end lockdown, no new cases - for a period, and if the general public and media are honest we already know that. Government in their press conferences want to maintain people's focus on the current instructions and not permit us to get distracted. I think it was a mistake of Johnson's saying they would review lockdown in 3 weeks. It gave false hope. There was never any chance lockdown would be lifted in 3 weeks. With nearly 1,000 daily deaths our epidemic is still rampant.
On testing, yes they were shambolic, Hancock has now spoken at length about how he plans to expand testing to 100,000 per day by the end of the month. They are also going to need a small army of people to conduct contact tracing once lockdown is lifted, My feeling is that this is still a month or two off.
Yu_Gi_Oh
天天好心情
weltweit
Well-Known Member
But Yu_Gi_Oh isn't that what Wuhan has done, they now have no community transmission cases and are now slowly lifting the shutdown, but it isn't yet opened for everyone unless I am mistaken?weltweit you can't stay in lockdown until you have zero new cases.
That's why I'm talking about having lots and lots of tests available. You absolutely have to get that number manageably low so that you can start tracking and dealing with every single case, but zero is an unrealistic number.
Cid
Proper break this time
Well a) we have no idea whether it will be effective once they lift lockdown. And b) China is an authoritarian state built on a society which still has extensive adherence to Confucian ideals of respect for seniority. And its administration lends itself very well to closing down specific districts and restricting travel.
Yu_Gi_Oh
天天好心情
Are you trying to liken the entirety of the UK to Wuhan? Anyway, the last big push for Wuhan involved a shit load of testing to get them out of lockdown. They didn't just sit there until no one said they felt sick any more. Wuhan still has the occasional new case anyway. China still has new cases. South Korea has cases. You don't need to be in a full lockdown if your cases are below are certain threshold and you have a good idea about the history of those cases.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Yes, UK is different, but the virus is the same .. I just think that when nearly 1,000 people are dying each day is not the right time to be discussing when and or how the lockdown could be lifted..
I would compare greater London to Wuhan, similar large conurbations, similar populations and extensive infections. According to reports I have read the majority of new cases in China are now incoming travelers.
Yu_Gi_Oh
天天好心情
Right. So, out of respect for the people dying, we shouldn't discuss this? Is that really what you're saying? Fine.
Doodler
You're quite nice when you smile
A bioweapon that predominantly targets older, less healthy people and leaves the young and fit almost unscathed. A very interesting and unusual weapon concept (fucking idiots).
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I agree with that, we wait to see if Hancock's 100,000 daily test materialise by the end of the month and will need probably much more than that to test trace isolate after lockdown is lifted. Anyhow I expect it will be lifted gradually. Where will the contact tracing army come from I wonder?
weltweit
Well-Known Member
No I didn't mean out of respect for those dying though that could be an issue. I just meant that when we are at the stage where more than 900 people died yesterday and the day before, we are actually quite a long way from realistically considering lifting the lockdown. Discuss it by all means!Right. So, out of respect for the people dying, we shouldn't discuss this? Is that really what you're saying? Fine.
Cid
Proper break this time
Good to hear... I need to have a proper chat with friends there sometime. I know my best friend is back to teaching (uni) soon, but that’s Nanjing which never had a high case load iirc. Also she’s quite... traditional in some odd ways. So I’m not quite sure how her adherence to policy reflects actual policy.
Cid
Proper break this time
Yeah, I think I get what you mean - there’s a lot of talk in the press about lockdown being lifted, discussing how long it will be etc. But not much saying it might be a practical reality for the next year, to varying levels.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
You might be interested to see this: Covid19 UK News, science and policy from 16/03/2020 advice referred to by UK SAGE (scientific advisary group for emergencies) which say that lockdown could be being switched on and off repeatedly for as much as a year in order to subdue infections.Right. So, out of respect for the people dying, we shouldn't discuss this? Is that really what you're saying? Fine.
I don't know if events have caused them to revise their statements since then, but at that point the prognosis seemed particularly bleak.
teqniq
DisMembered
No prizes for guessing the UK's stance on this:
www.euractiv.com
France, Germany join group of 10 EU countries calling for green recovery
Paris and Berlin have added their names to a growing list of EU capitals asking for the European Green Deal to be placed at the heart of the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan.
www.euractiv.com
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
From next Thursday (a month after lock down) masks and face coverings will be mandatory when walking around in public.
I think the government are hoping to ease the measures soon with this being the final push.
It's Easter, but church congregation restrictions are still in place (no more than 5 per congregation) family gatherings are still banned. We will see how many stick to the rules. With Poland being very Catholic, and Easter being the most important day in the church Calender, we will see what will happen.
Everyone is pretty sick of it. It's been 4 weeks so far.
I miss my friends.
I think the government are hoping to ease the measures soon with this being the final push.
It's Easter, but church congregation restrictions are still in place (no more than 5 per congregation) family gatherings are still banned. We will see how many stick to the rules. With Poland being very Catholic, and Easter being the most important day in the church Calender, we will see what will happen.
Everyone is pretty sick of it. It's been 4 weeks so far.
I miss my friends.
prunus
Tick tock.
It’s Poland I think. You may still want a link of course.
Yossarian
⏭️
I think population size is about where the similarities end - Wuhan was fully locked down, with travel in and out halted, at a time when the whole of China had less than 1% as many confirmed coronavirus cases as the UK does now. Contacts were extensively traced and the lockdown was enforced by an authoritarian state with world-leading facial recognition technology, etc. and zero respect for human rights.
In London, there are thousands upon thousands of cases and trains out are leaving every few minutes.
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
You'll have to stick it in Google translate...
ObowiÄzek zasÅaniania ust i nosa już wkrótce, a zasady bezpieczeÅstwa na dÅużej - Koronawirus: informacje i zalecenia - Portal Gov.pl
Od 16 kwietnia (czwartek) każda osoba na ulicy bÄdzie miaÅa obowiÄzek zasÅaniania ust i nosa. Zmianie ulegnÄ także terminy matur i egzaminu ósmoklasisty. Oprócz tego przedÅużamy obowiÄzywanie wszystkich dotychczasowych zasad bezpieczeÅstwa. To oznacza, że ograniczenia w przemieszczaniu...
www.gov.pl
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
Honestly I have no idea why the UK are not doing the same, and I'm surprised that the general public aren't fucking fuming with their government
Poland still don't have nearly enough tests, but at least they are getting to a point where the day on day increases are in single digit percentages rather than double.
Restrictive measures now means easier testing and tracing later. Especially now that masks and face coverings are going to be mandatory.
I do urge people to Google translate the link to see the difference between UK restrictions and Poland restrictions.
I'm honestly baffled.
Poland still don't have nearly enough tests, but at least they are getting to a point where the day on day increases are in single digit percentages rather than double.
Restrictive measures now means easier testing and tracing later. Especially now that masks and face coverings are going to be mandatory.
I do urge people to Google translate the link to see the difference between UK restrictions and Poland restrictions.
I'm honestly baffled.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I can remember calling for Greater London to be isolated inside the M25 early on but the cases spread across the UK such that other hot spots appeared equally as dangerous and such a suggestion then just seemed silly.
Yes they have a very different regime and here government seemed very loath to institute a lockdown despite that it was patently necessary. We will need mass testing contact tracing and compulsory isolation if we are to lift the lockdown at some point and yes as Yu_Gi_Oh says, a system more like South Korea is desireable.
Hopefully without too many passengers on them though!
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus hits remote Amazon tribe in Brazil as 15-year-old boy dies with COVID-19
from 11/04/2020 Coronavirus hits remote Amazon tribe in Brazil as 15-year-old boy dies with COVID-19
elbows
Well-Known Member
I can fully understand why ratcheting measures up and down could work.
But is it even possible, policy wise, to insist on up to a year in total of full-on lockdown?
The "on and off" application of it would probably end up provoking greater levels of dissent and disobedience, I'd have thought.
I suppose I'm just querying the practicalities there.
Maybe the questions to ask before deciding on the above policy should be :
How close are we ever going to get in the UK to effective, easily available antibody testing?
And how close (and soon) are we going to get to widespread, general, diagnostic testing?
Once we have some idea of the answers to the latter two questions, and the likely outcomes, we can more easily (?) compare and contrast the merits/demerits of widespread testing compared to the idea of continued on/off lockdown for up to two years ....
Maybe we'd need to combine elements of both together .......
No country is going to consider a years full lockdown to be viable. The only way that would change is if all other options are shown to be a disaster, in the same way that even short but draconian lockdowns were not considered to be compatible with some nations until they were left with little choice but to do them anyway.
A mixed solution is the most likely for the medium term. And probably plenty of fiddling around with the details and boundaries of lockdown measures, for both psychological and economic reasons. eg Italy has extended its lockdown again, but found a few areas they were prepared to relax. Thats probably partly what the new debate about the public wearing masks is largely about - tradeoffs. Its a battle to keep the rate of infection below a certain level, so its quite likely they are trying to balance the increase in infections that come from specific relaxations, with the decrease that might be expected from making people wear masks.
The UK's epidemic is a bit behind some others, so we have the luxury of learning at least a few weeks worth of reality from some other countries before we make policy decisions. The questions you pose are part of it, even though some of them may need to be modified to take into account actual UK capacity for tests, along with things like contact tracing systems. And when it comes to antibody stuff, its not just a question of mass testing availability, but also the surveys that will be used to get a better sense of what propportion of the population have already had the disease. Again, there will be clues from other countries and we have now seen a few more of these recently, although I would not yet say that picture has been firmed up, and I would expect regional variation.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus: Brazil's president rejects COVID-19 as a 'little flu' and ignores distancing rules
from 11/04/2020 Coronavirus: Brazil's president rejects COVID-19 as a 'little flu' and ignores distancing rules
