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Did a search and there are more reports. It's pretty terrifying.


The letter stated that people with “significant life-limiting illnesses”, such as incurable cancer, neurological conditions such as motor neurone disease and chronic untreatable heart and lung conditions, were “unlikely to be offered hospital admission should they become unwell and certainly will not be offered a ventilator bed”.

That's been known policy for some weeks now, and is the same in many countries, it's both harsh & logical. :(
 
That's weird, because Ecuador has only reported 180 deaths so far. :hmm:

That's because this is what a health service looks like when it's overwhelmed. Over 300 bodies were collected from private homes in the last week of March alone in Guayaquil. Let alone tests not being done, bodies are being left in the streets.

I love Ecuador and this is massively depressing to me. It's not a cover-up. They just can't cope.

 
That's weird, because Ecuador has only reported 180 deaths so far. :hmm:
To be fair, all countries official figures are underestimating case numbers and fatalities by margins between what might be described as inaccurate to huge.

The daily figures in the UK (for example), released on the day, are not accurate. One has to wait several days for them to backfill as data dribbles through various systems. Even then there are errors, misclassifications and gaps in the data. Cases is closely related to degree of testing (which is low to poor in most countries). Now consider less well organised healthcare reporting systems and political obfuscation.

It's a fairly straightforward exercise to extrapolate from the bounds of suspected CFR to realise that daily case figures don't add up (the same thought experiment suggests the Oxford model is wide of the mark whilst the LSHTM/IC/Cambridge ones are more reasonable).
 
The daily figures in the UK (for example), released on the day, are not accurate. One has to wait several days for them to backfill as data dribbles through various systems. Even then there are errors, misclassifications and gaps in the data. Cases is closely related to degree of testing (which is low to poor in most countries). Now consider less well organised healthcare reporting systems and political obfuscation.

Yes, although in the case of England its even worse than that, some of the deaths in the daily figures so far actually happened weeks earlier, and its only hospital deaths. The ONS data should have far less gaps, eventually, but it lags so far behind that I will only get a better picture many weeks later.
 
Yes, although in the case of England its even worse than that, some of the deaths in the daily figures so far actually happened weeks earlier, and its only hospital deaths. The ONS data should have far less gaps, eventually, but it lags so far behind that I will only get a better picture many weeks later.
The daily binning of the public numbers isn't accurate, and never will be. The closest to accurate one can get are hospital episodes data (which, obviously, are not publicly available).
 
The daily binning of the public numbers isn't accurate, and never will be. The closest to accurate one can get are hospital episodes data (which, obviously, are not publicly available).

Yeah. I've started using the hospitalisation figures from the daily number 10 briefings to improve my sense of the picture and the daily evolution.

The ones titles 'Slides and datasets to accompany coronavirus press conference' here Search
 
Spanish officials say they plan to widen coronavirus testing to include those without symptoms.

"We are preparing ourselves for de-escalation for which it is important to know who is contaminated to be able to gradually lift Spanish citizens' lockdown," Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez was quoted by Reuters as telling television station Antena 3.

 
A constant theme of mine is to keep an eye on countries that are touted as having avoided lockdowns, not had it too bad so far, etc, for signs that they too are having to increase measures.

Japan is the latest:

 
A constant theme of mine is to keep an eye on countries that are touted as having avoided lockdowns, not had it too bad so far, etc, for signs that they too are having to increase measures.

Japan is the latest:


Sweden as well.
 
Longer term, I think the last point there is pertinent for all of us. The same is happening in China - most new cases now are people coming from abroad. There is going to be a hell of a lot of twitchiness about international travel for a long time, I think.

South Korea now has a proper 14 day quarantine upon entry to the country, with non-residents having to do this in a facility. I don't know about Korea, but China's 14 day quarantine involves three coronavirus tests, on top of one they give you upon arrival at the airport. I hope SK is doing similar. I know that Hong Kong and Vietnam also quarantine those arriving from abroad now too. Obviously, those cases which get picked up in quarantine will be recorded as new cases in that country, although classed as imported rather than community transmissions, but I'm hopeful they won't contribute to onward transmission in these countries.
 
Yes, I hope the same but keep thinking I'm being naively optimistic.

Well we've had over 40 years of cynicism so if there was ever a time for optimism, I'd suggest this is it.

I'd say that big government, tax and spend is inevitable no matter how much those who loved the neoliberal era will blow a gasket over it. But the rest is up to us, its a promising foundation and a whole bunch of myths and taboos and sense of what is actual possible exploded in a few months.
 
That's weird, because Ecuador has only reported 180 deaths so far. :hmm:
There was probably close to 180 bodies in 1 of the videos from Ecuador, let alone the other videos of bodies being burnt in the streets and massive convoys of vehicles queuing up to deposit their loved ones at the crematorium.

(I posted them the other day)
 
Maybe Austria will be one to watch for those seeking clues about how the lockdowns will be relaxed, and how quickly it can happen in countries that look like they might be turning the corner. Or we will get to see their plans stall if the data goes in the wrong direction.


In Austria it is now compulsory to wear basic masks in supermarkets and other food and drug stores.

The idea appears to be gaining support across Europe, although there is uncertainty about how useful the measure will be.

And from BBC live updates page at 15:49:


Austria has set out plans to ease restrictions in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus. It is one of the first countries outside of Asia to do so.

Under the scheme, some shops will be able to reopen as early as next week but restaurants and bars will have to wait until May and it won't be until the end of June that large-scale public events, such as football matches, can take place.

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz also stressed loosening the restrictions depended on the public continuing to follow guidelines on social distancing.

Denmark is also likely to firm up a timetable for how it will end its lockdown, but, in an interview on Sunday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned it would be some time before normal life resumes.

And

The lockdown has brought the daily increase in infections to single digits in percentage terms and the number of people in hospital has stabilised. But conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said only last week that intensive-care capacity could be exceeded as early as mid-April.

“There will be a step-by-step reopening,” Kurz told a news conference, adding that the fact Austria had acted faster than other countries meant it was now in a position to start reopening shops sooner. It would act cautiously, possibly delaying moves if there is any uptick in infections.

If all goes well, it will reopen non-essential shops of less than 400 square metres and DIY shops on April 14, followed by all shops, malls and hairdressers on May 1, he said. Face masks will have to be worn in shops reopening and on public transport.

 
Encouraging signs that the first countries are reaching their peaks now, as defined by number of active cases. Austria has done extremely well to do so with so few dead, and total active cases have been falling there for a few days now, following big previous falls in new cases, so hopefully that will be sustained.

Switzerland may be the first more seriously affected country to be reaching its peak. Active cases now falling, and encouraging that the overall hospital occupancy is also peaking, and that on the back of encouraging new cases figures from a system that has been testing heavily - more tests per capita than any large-ish country other than Norway. Also very encouraging that the worst-affected canton, Ticino (the Italian bit of Switzerland), has seen hospitalised cases dropping for a week now.

Stats broken down by canton here.

Corona Fälle in der Schweiz
 
Australia has about 5000 confirmed cases and 25 deaths. They have also tested more per capita than anywhere else ( sorry don't have a link atm)

The government have found the magic money forrest! Absolute massive hand outs and waivers for everyone/thing.

Tonight we start a hard border between NSW and Qld, and WA have isolated entirely.

I'm highly suspicious at our governments handling of it tbh .. it's very unusual for them to get it right :hmm:

they’re kind of reeling from the last kicking for their management of the bush fires
 
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