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APRIL 1ST

Day 11 of lockdown.

The pubs have closed, along with most shops.
No airplanes pass; the odd helicopter can be heard in the distance.

People go out for exercise, or to carry out ‘key worker’ tasks.

The supermarkets, briefly empty of produce, have instituted
rationing, distanced queuing and priority hours for
the vulnerable and NHS workers.

The parks are full of people
getting their 1/2 hour
of government-prescribed exercise;
joggers sprint past, exhaling
and shedding drops of sweat;
children scoot past the closed playgrounds;
every water fountain is dry; every toilet barred.

The enemy is invisible and everywhere - it even fills the news.
Everyone’s having the same conversations.
Why is there no toilet paper or pasta in the shops?

The US is winning the death and infections chart - it, along with
Spain and Italy has long passed China.

Perhaps 30% of those who will die are moribund.

One scientist described coronavirus as ‘packing a year’s worth of risk into two weeks’.
An apparently healthy 13 year old boy died today in Brixton.
It feels like a lottery.

The world has gone mad for Zoom, and just as quickly tired of it.
Everyone is connected.
Everyone is alone.

The children are adapting to absent teachers.
Matilda says she misses structure. We must make some.
Ella is stressed about not reaching her potential.
It could be six months, or even nine, before things start to feel normal again.

A lot of people will die, but slowly and avoidably,
because of shortages and human imperfection.

Yoga types will say it is Mother Earth, cleansing herself…
until they lose someone they love.

Business types will make a killing.

And I? I’ll try and remember that this
is one moment in life…
and that the world still turns

and continues.
 
Oh Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

U.S. Withholding N95 Masks, Turning Away Canadians On Cruises Sparks Outrage On Social Media


and, basically, fuck you usa.
 


Noam Chomsky talking about the coronavirus and the world's response.....at 91 years of age.
I hope he gets through this.

Fast forward to 2: 25 to skip the intro.

Oh..and watch to the end for Noam's parrot 🙂
 
Last edited:
One of the oldest forms of immunotherapy is being pressed into action again. A study in JAMA follows the transfer of serum from five donors who had recovered from the respiratory disease COVID-19 and had high titers of immunoglobulin G antibodies to the causative coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 to five patients on mechanical ventilation. Three of the five recipients were weaned from assisted ventilation and were subsequently discharged. The study has many limitations beyond the small number of patients, including the lack of a placebo group and the diverse set of treatments, including antivirals, that each patient was receiving.
from 03/04/2020 COVID-19 Research in Brief: 28 March to 3 April, 2020
 
Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts
Background
Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19.
Findings
Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an R0 of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when R0 was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R0 of 1·5
were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for R0 of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset
from 28/02/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7/fulltext

The greater the transmission rate, the greater the percentage of contact tracing is required to achieve control of the outbreak. I don't think I have seen the replication rate mentioned in relation to the UK, but as we are dealing with only lockdown and not contact tracing the point seems moot. Also this study dates from the end of February so it could have been made redundant by subsequent events.
 
Could you also post these in the “useful treatments” thread weltweit ?

It’s potentially really interesting. Doing stuff on the fly like this often leads to useful developments. It’s completely unethical in normal times, but completely unethical not to do it at times like this.
Hi SheilaNaGig good point, I will try and remember, I am getting a bit confused by all the threads if I am honest.
 
Trump extends US guidelines beyond Easter


from Trump extends US virus guidelines to end of April

Trump seems all over the place with his pronouncements but Dr Fauci mentioning 100,000 fatalities and Trump saying this would be a good job is worrying. 100,000 people is a lot of people to lose, and the USA had a lot of warning from December 2019 when the virus first started its rampage in Wuhan China. Did they really think it wouldn't come to America? Or did they just waste time that they could have been preparing and stocking up on supplies PPE Testing kits etc etc ?
It seems stark to me, shocking as that is, that the US govt dont feel empathy and assistance is the way to go. It's barely human.
 
My cousin hurt his hand a few weeks ago and went to A&E. He had his own mask and wore it just because he was wary of potentially picking up a bug.
When he arrived he was asked to remove the mask. He was surprised by this...and asked why. He was told it would scare other patients waiting in A&E.
Roll on to last Thursday when he had to go back to hospital. He didnt wear his mask because of the ticking off he had received before. As he sat in A&E he started to cough...he has a cold. A nurse came over and handed him a mask and directed him to wear it.

My brother who works in a hospital, has his own PPE but has been told not to wear a mask. That masks are reserved only for staff working directly with covid19.
He is now working in A&E and patients are to be streamed to a different section for covid19 but he is still acutely aware that a covid19 case could turn up in A&E. He has decided to wear his own PPE gear and mask. He was asked where he got them by other drs. He told them. They are now getting their own online and hoping they can get them soon.

Ireland ordered loads of PPE from China. The first batch arrived on Sunday last. The arms are too short. The material is not easy to wear. And the masks dont fit many staff.
The government has requested the Chinese company to make adjustment on the next shipment.
It's a fucking race against time and its not ok that frontline workers are getting infected. It's crazy. I cannot understand why governments were not on this in January. It was obvious that it would spread.


Update on the PPF from China.
The HSE says 65% of the overalls / gowns are suitable and to specifications. But that staff will need to become familiar with them and how to remove them safely .

And 20% overall ppf sent is unsuitable. See video in the newspaper link

 
All empires collapse. Will this be their big moment?


America has been crumbling into the sea for a fair while now. It started slowly and subtly. I remember coming back from a visit and saying "Something has changed.. the star is in the descendant now..." but not being able to explain why I felt that. This was about 18 months before 9/11.
 
Its a sloppy article. The 'within days from Amazon and Boots' was a claim made by someone from PHE which was widely covered by the press around March 25th, but it was quickly shot down by the government when questions were asked about it.

The article also contains out of date info about how many antibody tests the UK government had provisionally ordered (subject to those tests passing validation, which sounds like its a challenge as some of the ones tested so far have been far too unreliable). I'm sure that a few days ago Hancock gave an updated figure that was millions higher than the number included in the article.

Despite the date on that article, in many ways it reads like something a week or so out of date.
 
Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the
same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
from 16/03/2020 Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Underline added by me

I suppose suppression is likely to be indefinite, and could be testing tracing and isolation, it does not have to mean lockdown for the duration of the 18 months.
 
If it mutated however
I haven't quite got my head round it yet - but as I understand it the virus in China Europe and USA are all identifiably slightly different strains which can be identified. If anyone knows more about this I am interested to know ..
 
I haven't quite got my head round it yet - but as I understand it the virus in China Europe and USA are all identifiably slightly different strains which can be identified. If anyone knows more about this I am interested to know ..

There are always small changes going on to the virus, which allows those looking at its genomes to map the evolution of various branches of the vrus as it spreads around the world.

Most of these changes are inconsequential to how bad the virus is for people. There can be exceptions to that, but humanity probably only notices that when a clear pattern emerges. And probably human knowledge at this stage is not sophisticated enough to even begin to understand what a lot of the changes mean. So unless they have a big effect on how transmissible the virus is or how readily it could kill someone infected, I dont think we'd spot any implications of particular changes.
 
Its a sloppy article. The 'within days from Amazon and Boots' was a claim made by someone from PHE which was widely covered by the press around March 25th, but it was quickly shot down by the government when questions were asked about it.

The article also contains out of date info about how many antibody tests the UK government had provisionally ordered (subject to those tests passing validation, which sounds like its a challenge as some of the ones tested so far have been far too unreliable). I'm sure that a few days ago Hancock gave an updated figure that was millions higher than the number included in the article.

Despite the date on that article, in many ways it reads like something a week or so out of date.

I’ll let you know if I hear Amazon are delivering these kits any time soon.
 
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