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Is it still impossible for Britain to avoid an Italy like outbreak?

Would not the earlier shutdown of events, the distancing and working from home wherever possible, and the like - other measures - not likely reduce the overall level of our own outbreak?
Restrictions could start now. They could be phased in and it would cause less overall panic and be easier to deal with, and it would slow transmission. But they won't, because it would mean rich people made less money - the government will wait until the absolute last minute before putting on restrictions then throw up their hands and say "what else could we have done".
 
Yes. We know. So why are you also saying ignore the Italians? :hmm: :confused:
All I am saying is that I don't see we have to follow their infection rates.

Like it or not, I believe Italy didn't start a testing regime earlier enough, I think they had infected people walking about for perhaps 2 months before they realised the seriousness of their situation, hence the early deaths and hence the large growth in their infected population and later raised levels of deaths ..
 
Australian gov announced $2,4 billion extra into the health care system yesterday. And will today announce billions for people to keep the economy afloat through this. Stuff like money to keep paying apprentices, casual employees with no sick leave, extra one off payments for people on benefits, and hand outs for small businesses.

In my workplace ( vulnerable people with a @Gov address) we are being asked to work from home if we even have a sniffle ( no travel or traceable contacts) and all travel plans have been pulled, even locally. So I can't even visit the office 30k away. If you go on holiday anywhere you have to self isolate for 14 days before coming back to work. At the moment we can still attend network/business meetings but not shake hands and social distance.

We have a strict protocol with hand washing by the door ie: no entry /exit without hand washing.

My towns runs on tourist economy, and that's another part of the list that'll get Gov handout money. I haven't seen any events pulled yet, but I expect to soon. There is only one hot spot so far in Sydney, with one school closed.

Personally I know a lot of people who have family and friends who are already living off grid miles from anywhere, and plans are being made for using these places as bolt holes to ride it out. But I don't think Australia has too high numbers yet. 115 cases and 3 deaths of elderly people. Plus we have travel/airport restrictions etc.. and no borders.

Government do a daily update here..

 
All I am saying is that I don't see we have to follow their infection rates.

Like it or not, I believe Italy didn't start a testing regime earlier enough, I think they had infected people walking about for perhaps 2 months before they realised the seriousness of their situation, hence the early deaths and hence the large growth in their infected population and later raised levels of deaths ..

We've got previously undetected cases dying in UK hospitals and you've been following events around the globe since January. I would say that I'm therefore surprised by your ability to maintain that stance, except I'm not.
 
I know people most at risk are old people with underlying health problems, but what percentage of deaths are not old people with underlying health problems?

I'm afraid thats the area where probably the biggest reality check for people is yet to come. I myself struggle to talk about it much, and only partly because I dont feel like I have a full and accurate picture yet. I'll do the reading and say more about this tomorrow if thats what people really want.
 
We've got previously undetected cases dying in UK hospitals and you've been following events around the globe since January. I would say that I'm therefore surprised by your ability to maintain that stance, except I'm not.
What do you think of the figures coming out of Singapore?
 
What do you think of the figures coming out of Singapore?

They are interesting, but I need months more to pass before I think I know what story they are really telling.

Its one of the last countries I would compare to the UK, thats for sure. What has happened there so far according to their numbers is not what anybody thinks is going to happen to countries in europe or the UK.

In fact, Singapore is now an example of a country which has started picking up a few cases with recent UK travel history. When that happened with countries other than our own, we took those imports as a sign that quite notable levels of infection were probably occurring in the countries that people were travelling from, even if other data from those countries didnt show such an outbreak. Why apply different rules to the UK? Now granted the Singapore evidence is rather limited so far, most of these cases had travel to other countries as well as the UK recently too, they arent proof that they got the infection in the UK. I think one case doesnt have such a history mentioned on the site at least.


There is no point hoping the UK turns out like countries that arent showing the same sort of signs or numbers. Compare it to countries that have had deaths, cases discovered in hospital, politicians testing positive, and some signs of exporting cases.
 
So, Russia and Singapore seem to have coronavirus under control/small cases hardly any deaths?
 
Interesting snippet from Italy re EU assistance.
Italy has already asked to activate the European Union Mechanism of Civil Protection for the supply of medical equipment for individual protection. But, unfortunately, not a single EU country responded to the Commission’s call. Only China responded bilaterally. Certainly, this is not a good sign of European solidarity.
 
Trump ends flights from Europe (apart from the UK).


Well thats probably ensured that there will be plenty of focus on any cases the UK ends up exporting to the USA, and the general picture of the outbreak here compared to the rest of Europe.
 
New video interview with prof Neil Ferguson. Not sure it tells us anything new really, his key point is countries now need to decide between a tight lockdown lasting 12-18 months, or letting the thing run its course while protecting the vulnerable as much as possible.

A hint that he doesn’t believe the Japanese figures and a warning of “dislocating social changes” in all countries, ie things are going to get really bad.

 
New video interview with prof Neil Ferguson. Not sure it tells us anything new really, his key point is countries now need to decide between a tight lockdown lasting 12-18 months, or letting the thing run its course while protecting the vulnerable as much as possible.

A hint that he doesn’t believe the Japanese figures and a warning of “dislocating social changes” in all countries, ie things are going to get really bad.


Hmm. That sounds plausible. I cant see any country doing lockdown for anything like that amount of time. But if that is the case, is there any point doing it at all? Buys time to set up mitigation measures?
 
Hmm. That sounds plausible. I cant see any country doing lockdown for anything like that amount of time. But if that is the case, is there any point doing it at all? Buys time to set up mitigation measures?

Well I think his point was you’d need to do it that long to get enough people vaccinated. But I agree it won’t happen. When the chips are down, letting a lot of people die will be thought the lesser of two evils compared to crashing the world economy.
 
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