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Cases are yet to explode in India. 39 so far: COVID-19 count reaches 39 in India
I've said this before but I am really worried about India. There's some suggestions in the media they are taking a US approach to things (denial, testing relatively few people) and lots of people in the UK with relatives in India will fly there over the Easter holidays.

Edited to add: Wikipedia has a page on current testing numbers & volume. Suggests India has tested 4058 people (3 tests per million population - worse than the US).

 
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It's spreading in Italy's prison system, three prisoners have died overnight.

* This from a live Sky News report.

I havent gone looking for that news but I know there have been prison riots (triggered by new covid-19 measures that affect prison visits) which have resulted in death. So perhaps its that, rather than death from Covid-19.

Since there is now a thread for Italy I will try not to talk about it more in this thread.
 
Just had a group text from work informing some customers are refusing to sign for parcels on drivers device due to coronavirus concerns.
 
last delivery I asked him to sign for it for me because I had a particularly nasty cold I didn't want to pass on to anyone. Am thinking of using the blunt end of a pencil for future use.
 
Government stays in contain phase.

Interesting that BBC interviewed and cited EU expert who said unequivocally UK running out of time to implement the social distancing measures - 'a few days' only left.

Government looks uninterested in doing that, having rubbished it for much of last week and the weekend.

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK to remain in 'containment' phase of response
 
Government stays in contain phase.

Interesting that BBC interviewed and cited EU expert who said unequivocally UK running out of time to implement the social distancing measures - 'a few days' only left.

Government looks uninterested in doing that, having rubbished it for much of last week and the weekend.

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK to remain in 'containment' phase of response
At a guess, I'd suggest that means we are not going to see a massive rise today or that government expects to see one tomorrow (they will at least have had provisional figures for today from 7 a.m. I think). Needless to say, what government does will be a mixture of science, politics/ideology and pure panic, but in the absence of a large increase they feel safe sticking with 'containment'.

In terms of government's response, it might be a minor issue, but Johnson just seems like a lazy bastard i.e. his preference is to do the least he/the government can get away with. That might be a mistake.

Edit: yes, 319 now for the UK.
 
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ok, i thought the same as you up until a few days ago. but now i disagree. if you close the schools now, while only 1% of children are infected and give it to their grandparents, that's better than closing the schools down in 2 weeks when 15% (or whatever) of children are infected and give it to their grandparents. obviously they cannot be allowed to go out and play together.
 
If all schools and workplaces remain open as normal, everyone is at risk of catching the virus not only through all the pupils at their kids' school, but beyond that from all the workplaces of all the other parents of all those kids, and then all the schools of all the kids of all those parents and so on.
 
ok, i thought the same as you up until a few days ago. but now i disagree. if you close the schools now, while only 1% of children are infected and give it to their grandparents, that's better than closing the schools down in 2 weeks when 15% (or whatever) of children are infected and give it to their grandparents. obviously they cannot be allowed to go out and play together.

Where on earth have you got the 'only 1% of children are infected' from, when we only have around 4 cases per million people?
 
I don't see how closing school helps. Kids will go out and play together, or go round to their (at higher risk) grandparents to be baby sat

This is often mentioned, but it’s not quite right in my opinion. The important factor here is how many other people each person (each being a possible transmitter or receiver) interacts with - 300 kids hanging out in 60 groups of 5 = lower number of net total transmissions than in 10 groups of 30 (classes) or even considered as one group of 300 (picking up off surfaces eg bannisters and so on). Ie off school each kid will have probably an order of magnitude fewer interactions with different people (at a guess).

(I’m not speaking to the grandparents issue here).
 
I don't see how closing school helps. Kids will go out and play together, or go round to their (at higher risk) grandparents to be baby sat

Epidemiologists have made the case for school closures during pandemic precisely because parents will not go to work in non-essential sectors and keep their children at home.
 
Where on earth have you got the 'only 1% of children are infected' from, when we only have around 4 cases per million people?
i haven't got it from anywhere, i said "or whatever" to illustrate that these were not real numbers.
p.s. i would bet my last dollar there are significantly more than 4 cases per million people right now. that's just the official number. my logic stands.
 
The biggest lock-down, and most important one, is in Hubei province, which is the one I was referring to, the last extension was on 20th Feb. until 10th March.

I spoke to my friend in Yichang and no one he knows is going to work apart from a pharmacist who has already been in her shop. His block committee has reverted back to three slips/per week (to let you go outside) - but most don't have enough masks. Hubei has not started a generalised fugong back to work unlike some other provinces
 
i haven't got it from anywhere, i said "or whatever" to illustrate that these were not real numbers.
p.s. i would bet my last dollar there are significantly more than 4 cases per million people right now. that's just the official number. my logic stands.

The current confirmed cases will miss out those haven't yet had results (3 day wait, apparently) and those that haven't been tested at all because they are in the non-symptomatic stage. We can have a rough idea how many were infected on this day about 2 weeks from now.
 



I'm starting to get the sense that it will actually be fairly typical for news of large lockdowns of large population centres to either leak some hours in advance, or to be seen coming.

Mind you, as I've said before the purpose of such lockdowns is not just to stop the spread going from there to elsewhere, its to dampen the spread within the area thats being locked down. And the sight of some people fleeing in the final hours is still nothing like as alarming as people coming and going in a normal way every day.

Those people who have come from the affected area have been told by some southern authorities to self-isolate for 14 days.
 
Where are all these women just sitting around waiting to look after other people's children? The only women who can afford to be SAHMs these days aren't going to do it. Everyone else is at work.

The point is that work outside with many other people together spreads infection at a rate where every ICU bed in the country will be occupied within a fortnight - so it has to be curtailed for a period. Men can look after other people's children aswell.
 
I think the risk is in people going to different places and interacting with people they don't mix with on a regular basis. So I get the idea of abandoning sporting events where people come together from different areas.

But children going down the street to the same classroom of kids at school over and again, where there is currently no infection, seems very low risk.

It would be different if the virus was widespread, as in north Italy, but it seems excessive at this stage.
 
I think the risk is in people going to different places and interacting with people they don't mix with on a regular basis. So I get the idea of abandoning sporting events where people come together from different areas.

But children going down the street to the same classroom of kids at school over and again, where there is currently no infection, seems very low risk.

It would be different if the virus was widespread, as in north Italy, but it seems excessive at this stage.
Though, presumably, any group of kids or other social group that doesn't have the virus becomes at risk when one member of that group becomes exposed by their interaction with someone else? Also, groups that don't have the virus now may be incubating it.

I don't take it as given that governments should be imposing shutdowns and social isolation everywhere. But in general terms, the more movement and interaction that takes place, the more likely the virus will spread.
 
I'd like to know how day to day life has been affected in the UK. Hard to get a sense from watching the news. Is it business as usual, but with more masks? Here in Istanbul everything's still going on, with still not a confirmed case, but the number of masks out and about is increasing every day. Oh, and my Iranian friends have been subject to all sorts of ridiculousness, even though they live here and haven't been to Iran since last summer :rolleyes:
 
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