Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Evolution of the covid patients in hospital beds for/with covid situation. With percentage proportions recently influenced by the different timing of the peaks and the lack of decline seen in 'with' cases yet.
Data goes up to 25th Jan and is from the 'Primary Diagnoses Supplement' thats published weekly on Thursdays at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity
Data goes up to 25th Jan and is from the 'Primary Diagnoses Supplement' thats published weekly on Thursdays at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity
elbows
Well-Known Member
Wastewater data for England finally published by the UKHSA!
www.gov.uk
Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in England wastewater, monthly statistics: 1 June 2021 to 10 January 2022
Data showing the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and the number of Omicron variant detections in wastewater as part of the EMHP wastewater monitoring programme.
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
I've noticed mask wearing in supermarkets has become significantly less in the last week.
I hiss at them from behind my mask
I hiss at them from behind my mask
probably because the government has said no-one needs to wear one at all from today
elbows
Well-Known Member
The guidance remains to wear one in a bunch of settings inluding crowded indoor places where you are mixing with people you dont normally mix with. However this sort of guidance doesnt get much of a look-in compared to all the news stories about the formal laws being removed.
The likes of Sainsburys and Tescos have asked people to keep wearing masks but we know from the past that these words only carry a little weight and enforcement is another matter entirely.
The likes of Sainsburys and Tescos have asked people to keep wearing masks but we know from the past that these words only carry a little weight and enforcement is another matter entirely.
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
No apparent change around where I am in supermarkets - I think it's been only people who deliberately want to wear masks who do for a while. Everybody knows that nothing is ever enforced; I get the impression that regulations are just one of many things that influence people's estimation of covid risk, and an increasingly minor one.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Triggle alert !
Useful graphics, but NT is back on the "herd immunity" band-waggon, but without actually ever saying so ...
{apart from a reference to rethinking zero-covid approaches}
Omicron's fall has slowed - should we worry?
Covid cases could stay at a high level until spring, experts say. What does this mean for the UK?
www.bbc.co.uk
Useful graphics, but NT is back on the "herd immunity" band-waggon, but without actually ever saying so ...
{apart from a reference to rethinking zero-covid approaches}
elbows
Well-Known Member
There is a supplementary document with the weekly surveillance report that features a large number of graphs that break things down by year group.
Click on Surveillance in 'educational-age' cohorts in the contents page and be ready for a bewildering array of charts.
I'd not look for a single explanation for primary and secondary differences because vaccination rates havent been really amazing and there is plenty of vaccine breakthrough when it comes to infection. So probably better to combine that side of things with different mitigation attempts, different magnitude of very high peaks in the past in secondary ages compared to primary, ongoing different timing in different age groups, and perhaps Omicron has some properties that gives it more potential for easy primary school spread. And even where primary school rates recently stick out compared to secondary, there are still some upward trends in secondary education.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Triggle alert !
Omicron's fall has slowed - should we worry?
Covid cases could stay at a high level until spring, experts say. What does this mean for the UK?www.bbc.co.uk
Useful graphics, but NT is back on the "herd immunity" band-waggon, but without actually ever saying so ...
{apart from a reference to rethinking zero-covid approaches}
Triggle is happy that a broder array of experts say things that are compatible with his spin these days than used to e the case. I note that he points to a particular Guardian article that further demonstrates that, but I dont really expect him to point to the following one!
Reckless to leave 3bn unvaccinated while easing England rules, experts say
Scientists tell Boris Johnson that failure to help poorer countries means new variants will put thousands at risk in UK
of course the international community, need to get on and get vaccines to the worlds poorest. but asking England to continue with restrictionsuntil the rest of the world has been vaccinated, is more than a bit daft. TBF I haven’t read the article, that might just be poor headline writing by the Guardian.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
What exactly do you mean by that?
Earlier on, it might have referred to an attitude that we should build up immunity just by letting it spread, rather than waiting for vaccines first, to make it a less risky strategy.
We now have a population that is about as vaccinated as it's going to get, and seemingly fairly good evidence that the combination of this and the Omicron variant mean that hospitalisation and death rates are nothing like what they were a year or so ago. What do you want to happen instead? If it's further restrictions then what's your threshold for lifting them?
miss direct
misfungled
I was pleased that most customers in the (hot, airless) post office had masks on yesterday. Although most of them were Chinese students, who seem to consistently be careful and diligent with mask use.
I need another negative PCR for an upcoming flight, which is tedious. I'd like to go out and see some friends this weekend, but it's a bit too cold to sit outside.
I need another negative PCR for an upcoming flight, which is tedious. I'd like to go out and see some friends this weekend, but it's a bit too cold to sit outside.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The substance is all about getting the world vacinated and not pretending its all over in the meantime.
It is inevitable that such a topic will hint at worst-case possibilities that include another variant popping up elsewhere at some point in future which then causes a setback in the UKs own situation. Because thats perceived as being a risk that may force countries like the Uk to take the global vaccine situation seriously. So far it hasnt worked out that way.
And yes the usual Guardian sloppiness did feature and already led to this at the bottom of the article:
elbows
Well-Known Member
Such angles are an oversimplification with contradictions anyway because until/unless we get a different class of vaccines that do more to knock transmission and infection on the head, there seems to remain plenty of potential for new variants to pop up even in heavily vaccinated populations. Indeed the presence of much immunity, via previous infection or vaccination, is something that provides much selection pressure for strains of the virus that can bypass existing immunity. Some narratives ignore this and so these days there is much double-think when vaccines and the end of the pandemic are discussed.
We've been told in the past that the more infections are allowed to happen, the more mutation opportunities the virus has. But I dont hear much of that concept being applied to the likes of the UK with its staggeringly high number of Omicron infections these days.
We've been told in the past that the more infections are allowed to happen, the more mutation opportunities the virus has. But I dont hear much of that concept being applied to the likes of the UK with its staggeringly high number of Omicron infections these days.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
We can still point out the similarities between the original plan a and the 'herd immunity justification' that went with it, and the approach the government first set out almost a year ago and then acted upon from approximately July 2021 onwards.
However if we scratch below the surface then the original 'herd immunity' thing doest actually apply anyway - the concept of herd immunity involves immunity in the general population having reached levels which makes it hard for the virus to persist at high levels, therefore protecting those who still dont have immunity, by denying the virus many opportunities to reach those people. We clearly dont have a situation where that sort of protective effect is actually in play, due to reinfections and vaccine breakthrough. Perhaps we will get there one day if the evolution of the virus slows and we end up with new vaccines that can do more on the transmission and infection front, perhaps not.
Whether that should make any real difference to the chosen government approach these days depends on whether genuine herd immunity was actually a real part of the original approach, or whether it was just a fake justification used to justify a 'do little' approach at the start of the pandemic.
So with real herd immunity not currently on the agenda, we have different framing involving 'endemic levels' of the virus instead, and protection against severe disease and death. And when people mention herd immunity its just sloppy short-hand, what people are really talking about is how similar the approach is to the original favoured approach, the orthodox approach before authorities realised that they would need lockdowns etc to make the numbers add up. When it comes to severe disease and death, I have very much moved with the times now in that I acknowledge that the numbers game is very different now. Authorities in many countries figure that their original preference for dealing with this virus, pharmaceutical measures rather than heavy non-pharmaceutical measures, is now increasingly viable, for now at least. I'll still feel the need to point out that there can still be future setbacks to the progress made, in theory new variants or vaccine waning can still change the numbers game in a negative way in future. I would not have us all sitting at home in the meantime, but neither would I push rhetoric about it all being over too far. Nor would I want to forget all about those who remain vulnerable, or pay absolutely no attention at all to high levels of viral prevalence, since those increase the future risk of setbacks in my opinion. In practical terms this means I would not be encouraging the abandonment of masks, but its an uphill struggle to get people to take the middle ground and stop seeing things only in binary terms of 'really heavy measures or no measures'. Just as its an uphill battle to get people to still take seriously the health consequences that are not of the same magnitude as the levels of hospitalisation and death seen in the first two waves, every time we get a period of easing of restrictions these milder consequences are brushed under the carpet. I dont think I'm going to be pleased with the level of type 1 diabetes onset that will eventually show up in data for the Omicron period, for example, unless we get lucky and the properties of Omicron also happen to reduce the diabetes risk compared to whats emerging in regards the variants of previous waves triggering diabetes.
Agent Sparrow
the age of slippers and migraines
Personally I would have appreciated at least the option to vaccinate my under 12 kids.
elbows
Well-Known Member
COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless
Rosy assumptions endanger public health — policymakers must act now to shape the years to come.
www.nature.com
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
And, somewhere in the region of 4 million adults ... no. I'm wrong it's a lot more !
NIMS counts a smidgeon over 62.5 million people in that system, including approx 8.25 under 12s.
By 26th January 2022, approx 52.25 million of them have had at least one dose of vaccine.
So, still some way to go !
E2A - Still not forgetting those with medical problems that preclude working vaccination as an option, for whom masks etc are still important.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I cant say that the peak in detected positive cases had vastly different timing in my town.
However, when it comes to the local hospital, I see a different picture. Whether this is down to things happening in the broader community or whether its been driven by hospital outbreaks or care home outbreaks I cannot currently say:
Daily hospital admissions/diagnoses:
Number of covid patients in hospital beds:
Note that when it came to an infamous previous hospital outbreak here, the spike in the period prior to July 2020 (by which time it had been squashed) was a hospital outbreak, one of the most vivid ones seen in any graphs of NHS trusts in England.
And local press stories like this one:
www.coventrytelegraph.net
However, when it comes to the local hospital, I see a different picture. Whether this is down to things happening in the broader community or whether its been driven by hospital outbreaks or care home outbreaks I cannot currently say:
Daily hospital admissions/diagnoses:
Number of covid patients in hospital beds:
Note that when it came to an infamous previous hospital outbreak here, the spike in the period prior to July 2020 (by which time it had been squashed) was a hospital outbreak, one of the most vivid ones seen in any graphs of NHS trusts in England.
And local press stories like this one:
RAF drafted in to help Nuneaton's hospital cope with demand
They are helping in several different roles
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Something to do with the fact that a big proportion of positive tests are now in the under 15 age category? Much less likely to be seriously ill, so maybe much less likely to seek further confirmation with a PCR? That growth in purple correlates pretty well with the surge in rates after schools went back.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Presumably it's because the rules have been changed recently so it's no longer necessary to take a PCR test as confirmation of a LFT if you have symptoms.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
berkshire seems to be becoming plague central
covid cases up almost 50% week on week in wokingham borough
covid cases up almost 50% week on week in wokingham borough
elbows
Well-Known Member
Exactly.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Ah yes, I see.
elbows
Well-Known Member
berkshire seems to be becoming plague central
View attachment 307810
covid cases up almost 50% week on week in wokingham borough
Yeah, the pattern of drops and subsequent rises in daily positive case figures also show up as being different for a whole bunch of places down South.
For example Reading:
I'm also seeing a different pattern in daily hospital admissions/diagnoses in the oldest age groups when I look at regions such as the South East.
I've got way too many graphs to even begin to present them all, so here are just two to begin to illustrate this difference.
North West:
South East:
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
Interesting points about 'flu. Here's a very prescient article in the Guardian about the 'flu pandemic of 1957 - interesting how history repeats?
A cavalier Tory leader and a botched pandemic response? It must be 1957 | Andy Beckett
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