Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

The origins of the word are compatible with Johnsons worldview and the colonial view of parts of Africa.

Mumbo jumbo (phrase) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[brogdale]

another 231 deaths today

at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days.

 

[killer b]

another 231 deaths today

at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days.

Aren't daily numbers even more unreliable a guide to how things are going than usual atm because of Christmas reporting delays?

 

[emanymton]

Too little, too late ?

Covid-19: Hundreds of maskless London Underground passengers fined

Compulsory face coverings were reinstated amid rising concerns about the Omicron variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

How thick must you be to
a) not wear a mask, and
B) to not say you are exempt when challenged.

 

[brogdale]

Aren't daily numbers even more unreliable a guide to how things are going than usual atm because of Christmas reporting delays?

Quite possibly but I wasn't really commenting on the reliability of the number...just how fucking sad it is to keep seeing such a high death toll.

 

[sojourner]

There was something on the news the other day about building new Nightingale hospitals. Wtf happened to the existing ones?

 

[killer b]

Quite possibly but I wasn't really commenting on the reliability of the number...just how fucking sad it is to keep seeing such a high death toll.

What did you mean when you said in the same post 'at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days.' then? That would require the numbers to be reliable and sustained/increasing over the next few days.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There was something on the news the other day about building new Nightingale hospitals. Wtf happened to the existing ones?

What existing ones?

I assume you mean the ones set-up back in 2020, and decommissioned between late 2020 & early 2021.

The new ones are actually 'Nightingale Hubs', much smaller & on existing hospital sites, but like before, no one can explain where staff would from to run them.

 

[sojourner]

What existing ones?

I assume you mean the ones set-up back in 2020, and decommissioned between late 2020 & early 2021.

I didn't know they'd been decommissioned, clearly.

 

[brogdale]

What did you mean when you said in the same post 'at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days.' then? That would require the numbers to be reliable and sustained/increasing over the next few days.

Really not here to argue today, thanks.

 

[cupid_stunt]

What did you mean when you said in the same post 'at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days.' then? That would require the numbers to be reliable and sustained/increasing over the next few days.

The current deaths within 28 days of positive test is 149,515, so not unreasonable to think it will hit 150k in the next few days.

 

[elbows]

What existing ones?

I assume you mean the ones set-up back in 2020, and decommissioned between late 2020 & early 2021.

The new ones are actually 'Nightingale Hubs', much smaller & on existing hospital sites, but like before, no one can explain where staff would from to run them.

I see the current ones as being more akin to increasing capacity for patients that are near the end of their hospital stay or are basically ready for discharge but with nowhere to go.

Staffing still an issue, but slightly different staffing needs for this setup, something it would be possible to fudge with a bit more success than the original ones.

Not clear these will be needed much either. Explosive growth has not returned to the hospital data overall yet, and maybe it isnt going to, there are all manner of potential peak indicators starting to show up with increased clarity in recent days. But its not completely clear if that is also true for the North of England which saw some of the most alarming growth recently. And there might still be exceptions for specific hospital trusts. And there are no clear signs as yet as to what extent the slower, constant grinding pressure will be sustained for too long. We are still at least one days worth of data away from me updating my graphs, but hopefully tomorrows figures for England wont destroy the description I just gave.

 

[elbows]

The current deaths within 28 days of positive test is 149,515, so not unreasonable to think it will hit 150k in the next few days.

And there is no real doubt that that version of the numbers was especially badly affected by circumstances in the first wave, including late discovery of what stage we were at with the wave, lack of testing etc.

I still prefer the figures where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate, a number that is bound to reach 175,000 at some point in the coming weeks. Excess deaths in the first wave imply this isnt quite the right number either. What number we come out with obviously depends on the definition used, but to my mind, when trying hardest not to leave anybody out, I expect the 'true' figure will be closer to 200,000 at some stage that isnt hugely far away. But thats not the same as how many more deaths we've had in total during the pandemic compared to what would have been expected without the pandemic, because there were also quite a lot of deaths that didnt happen during certain periods, due to a lack of flu etc, and some periods of greatly reduced economic activity.

 

[killer b]

The current deaths within 28 days of positive test is 149,515, so not unreasonable to think it will hit 150k in the next few days.

I was challenging the extrapolation of a single day's data to make that calculation, as you know. the numbers are artificially high today, like they were artificially low a couple of days ago. I didn't see anyone posting about how great it was the numbers were coming right down on the 4th, when there was 49 reported.

 

[elbows]

I lost track of who I told I'd mention reinfections to again once the latest UK data on that was out, and on which thread.

But anyway, it came out.

 

[AverageJoe]

Have we had the news that Bra maker Michelle Mone and her husband might have secured a £200million deal for providing Covid stuff when this started?

Tory peer Michelle Mone secretly involved in PPE firm she referred to government

Exclusive: Leaked files suggest Mone and her husband were involved in business given £200m contracts

www.theguardian.com

 

[Wilf]

I was challenging the extrapolation of a single day's data to make that calculation, as you know. the numbers are artificially high today, like they were artificially low a couple of days ago. I didn't see anyone posting about how great it was the numbers were coming right down on the 4th, when there was 49 reported.

But then, responding to ongoing large scale death and misery shouldn't be treated as a form of emotional double entry book keeping.

 

[killer b]

But then, responding to ongoing large scale death and misery shouldn't be treated as a form of emotional double entry book keeping.

I don't know what that means sorry wilf.

 

[Wilf]

I don't know what that means sorry wilf.

That people get upset and angry about ongoing deaths and that you shouldn't expect a calibrated opposite reaction when there is less bad news.

 

[killer b]

That people get upset and angry about ongoing deaths and that you shouldn't expect a calibrated opposite reaction when there is less bad news.

I don't, I was just saying it doesn't happen. One of the reasons it doesn't happen is because it would have been roundly challenged if it had, so here we are.

 

[xenon]

Have we had the news that Bra maker Michelle Mone and her husband might have secured a £200million deal for providing Covid stuff when this started?

Tory peer Michelle Mone secretly involved in PPE firm she referred to government

Exclusive: Leaked files suggest Mone and her husband were involved in business given £200m contracts

www.theguardian.com

FWIW also being investigated for alleged racist messages:

https://www.theguardian.com › uk-news › jan › met-in...

 

[elbows]

Dear oh dear the Guardian have fucked these numbers up:

The data also showed that in England there are 17,988 Covid patients in hospital, up from 15,659 the day before

Thats from Military deployed at London hospitals due to Omicron staff shortages

No the data doesnt show that. 17,988 is the UK number, which happens to be the latest UK figure but for a couple of days earlier than the latest England figure since some of the nations data publication lags behind.

The actual figure for England is 16,058. They did manage to get right that this is up from 15,659 the previous day.

 

[William of Walworth]

The origins of the word are compatible with Johnsons worldview and the colonial view of parts of Africa.

Mumbo jumbo (phrase) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"how Mumbo-Jumbo conquered the World" by Francis Wheen (erstwhile Marx biographer, and Private Eye ivestigator ...

It's an old book now, but if you're a conspiracy theory 'sceptic' , that is, a resolute opponent of those who pontificate such 'theories', then this Wheen book is well worth a read IMO ....

 

[IC3D]

Surprised to see police in numbers enforcing masks on the tube this morning. First time ever I've seen this in two years.

 

[_Russ_]

Surprised to see police in numbers enforcing masks on the tube this morning. First time ever I've seen this in two years.

Gobsmacked

 

[bluescreen]

Anyone better informed than me have any thoughts on this thread on Long Covid? Ricksecker isn't a medic but a data nerd from Silicon Valley who seems to have done his homework.



And then we have this from Eric Topol

 

[two sheds]

Did see this on long covid:

Inflammatory micro clots in blood of individuals suffering from Long COVID

Researchers have found an overload of various inflammatory molecules, 'trapped' inside insoluble microscopic blood clots (micro clots), in the blood of individuals suffering from Long COVID.

www.sciencedaily.com

 

[platinumsage]

Anyone better informed than me have any thoughts on this thread on Long Covid? Ricksecker isn't a medic but a data nerd from Silicon Valley who seems to have done his homework.



And then we have this from Eric Topol

The problem with all the studies cited is that they use self-reported symptoms and include no control group. Ideally control groups would include people who didn't have COVID but had some other virus e.g. a cold virus, and people who thought they had COVID but for whom in-study antibody testing reveals they didn't.

If you just ask people "do you sometimes experience fatigue", you can't conclude that everyone who says yes is suffering from long COVID.

 

[LDC]

It's too long and cites multiple studies and would take a huge effort to digest it all to have an easy communicated opinion I think.

The micro-clots thing is very early days and more studies are being done, so can't draw any firm conclusions from it yet I think it's fair to say.

 

[LDC]

If you just ask people "do you sometimes experience fatigue", you can't conclude that everyone who says yes is suffering from long COVID.

That's why there's always been wariness about using 'fatigue' as a symptom for testing like cough and temp are.