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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

another 231 deaths today :(

at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days. :mad:
 
killer b said:
Aren't daily numbers even more unreliable a guide to how things are going than usual atm because of Christmas reporting delays?
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Quite possibly but I wasn't really commenting on the reliability of the number...just how fucking sad it is to keep seeing such a high death toll.
 
brogdale said:
Quite possibly but I wasn't really commenting on the reliability of the number...just how fucking sad it is to keep seeing such a high death toll.
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What did you mean when you said in the same post 'at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days.' then? That would require the numbers to be reliable and sustained/increasing over the next few days.
 
sojourner said:
There was something on the news the other day about building new Nightingale hospitals. Wtf happened to the existing ones?
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What existing ones?

I assume you mean the ones set-up back in 2020, and decommissioned between late 2020 & early 2021.

The new ones are actually 'Nightingale Hubs', much smaller & on existing hospital sites, but like before, no one can explain where staff would from to run them.
 
killer b said:
What did you mean when you said in the same post 'at this rate the (lower) total will be 150k within a couple of days.' then? That would require the numbers to be reliable and sustained/increasing over the next few days.
Click to expand...

The current deaths within 28 days of positive test is 149,515, so not unreasonable to think it will hit 150k in the next few days.
 
cupid_stunt said:
What existing ones?

I assume you mean the ones set-up back in 2020, and decommissioned between late 2020 & early 2021.

The new ones are actually 'Nightingale Hubs', much smaller & on existing hospital sites, but like before, no one can explain where staff would from to run them.
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I see the current ones as being more akin to increasing capacity for patients that are near the end of their hospital stay or are basically ready for discharge but with nowhere to go.

Staffing still an issue, but slightly different staffing needs for this setup, something it would be possible to fudge with a bit more success than the original ones.

Not clear these will be needed much either. Explosive growth has not returned to the hospital data overall yet, and maybe it isnt going to, there are all manner of potential peak indicators starting to show up with increased clarity in recent days. But its not completely clear if that is also true for the North of England which saw some of the most alarming growth recently. And there might still be exceptions for specific hospital trusts. And there are no clear signs as yet as to what extent the slower, constant grinding pressure will be sustained for too long. We are still at least one days worth of data away from me updating my graphs, but hopefully tomorrows figures for England wont destroy the description I just gave.
 
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cupid_stunt said:
The current deaths within 28 days of positive test is 149,515, so not unreasonable to think it will hit 150k in the next few days.
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And there is no real doubt that that version of the numbers was especially badly affected by circumstances in the first wave, including late discovery of what stage we were at with the wave, lack of testing etc.

I still prefer the figures where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate, a number that is bound to reach 175,000 at some point in the coming weeks. Excess deaths in the first wave imply this isnt quite the right number either. What number we come out with obviously depends on the definition used, but to my mind, when trying hardest not to leave anybody out, I expect the 'true' figure will be closer to 200,000 at some stage that isnt hugely far away. But thats not the same as how many more deaths we've had in total during the pandemic compared to what would have been expected without the pandemic, because there were also quite a lot of deaths that didnt happen during certain periods, due to a lack of flu etc, and some periods of greatly reduced economic activity.
 
cupid_stunt said:
The current deaths within 28 days of positive test is 149,515, so not unreasonable to think it will hit 150k in the next few days.
Click to expand...
I was challenging the extrapolation of a single day's data to make that calculation, as you know. the numbers are artificially high today, like they were artificially low a couple of days ago. I didn't see anyone posting about how great it was the numbers were coming right down on the 4th, when there was 49 reported.
 
I lost track of who I told I'd mention reinfections to again once the latest UK data on that was out, and on which thread.

But anyway, it came out.



 
killer b said:
I was challenging the extrapolation of a single day's data to make that calculation, as you know. the numbers are artificially high today, like they were artificially low a couple of days ago. I didn't see anyone posting about how great it was the numbers were coming right down on the 4th, when there was 49 reported.
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But then, responding to ongoing large scale death and misery shouldn't be treated as a form of emotional double entry book keeping.
 
Wilf said:
That people get upset and angry about ongoing deaths and that you shouldn't expect a calibrated opposite reaction when there is less bad news.
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I don't, I was just saying it doesn't happen. One of the reasons it doesn't happen is because it would have been roundly challenged if it had, so here we are.
 
AverageJoe said:
Have we had the news that Bra maker Michelle Mone and her husband might have secured a £200million deal for providing Covid stuff when this started?

www.theguardian.com

Tory peer Michelle Mone secretly involved in PPE firm she referred to government

Exclusive: Leaked files suggest Mone and her husband were involved in business given £200m contracts
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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FWIW also being investigated for alleged racist messages:

https://www.theguardian.com › uk-news › jan › met-in...
 
Dear oh dear the Guardian have fucked these numbers up:

The data also showed that in England there are 17,988 Covid patients in hospital, up from 15,659 the day before
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Thats from Military deployed at London hospitals due to Omicron staff shortages

No the data doesnt show that. 17,988 is the UK number, which happens to be the latest UK figure but for a couple of days earlier than the latest England figure since some of the nations data publication lags behind.

The actual figure for England is 16,058. They did manage to get right that this is up from 15,659 the previous day.
 
Anyone better informed than me have any thoughts on this thread on Long Covid? Ricksecker isn't a medic but a data nerd from Silicon Valley who seems to have done his homework.



And then we have this from Eric Topol
 
bluescreen said:
Anyone better informed than me have any thoughts on this thread on Long Covid? Ricksecker isn't a medic but a data nerd from Silicon Valley who seems to have done his homework.



And then we have this from Eric Topol
Click to expand...


The problem with all the studies cited is that they use self-reported symptoms and include no control group. Ideally control groups would include people who didn't have COVID but had some other virus e.g. a cold virus, and people who thought they had COVID but for whom in-study antibody testing reveals they didn't.

If you just ask people "do you sometimes experience fatigue", you can't conclude that everyone who says yes is suffering from long COVID.
 
It's too long and cites multiple studies and would take a huge effort to digest it all to have an easy communicated opinion I think.

The micro-clots thing is very early days and more studies are being done, so can't draw any firm conclusions from it yet I think it's fair to say.
 
platinumsage said:
If you just ask people "do you sometimes experience fatigue", you can't conclude that everyone who says yes is suffering from long COVID.
Click to expand...

That's why there's always been wariness about using 'fatigue' as a symptom for testing like cough and temp are.
 
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