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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

BillRiver said:
My dad worked at Barking College of Technology for 20+ years, teaching literature including Shakespeare to hundreds of local people including a great many workers from the Ford factory in nearby Dagenham. They were paid, by Ford, for their one day a week at college at the same rates as if they'd been at work.

Eta: and my maternal grandad and great-uncle were involved in (self organised, outside paid working hours) workers education amongst miners in Northumberland back in the day. They learnt Latin and studied poetry together, amongst other things.

It used to be normal, that sorta thing, according to my late grandad. For the men, at least.
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Stuff that that still about in a slightly different form.

Courses for adults | WEA

Adult learning courses online and in-venues near you. Many courses are free. From arts, crafts and history to ESOL and learning new skills.
www.wea.org.uk www.wea.org.uk
 
Guardian
Anecdotal reports have suggested that the issue may be more widespread in south-west England, prompting speculation that a new variant of Sars-CoV-2 may be the cause. However, GPs in Manchester and Oxfordshire have also reported discrepancies between lateral flow and PCR test results, and scientists think a new variant is unlikely.
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I believe we are still leaders in genomic analysis here in the UK, so assume this possibility should be rapidly confirmed one way or the other, im a little surprised it hasnt already or perhaps they just arent telling us?
 
_Russ_ said:
I believe we are still leaders in genomic analysis here in the UK, so assume this possibility should be rapidly confirmed one way or the other, im a little surprised it hasnt already or perhaps they just arent telling us?
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Regular T&T sequencing is performed on a subset of positive PCR test samples. So if PCR is returning negatives...
 
A question please.
Just carried out my mandatory Day2 PCR test (after travel) and about to post it.
There was a situation at the airport upon arrival back here - at midnight on Monday night / sunday morning - that was really risky (over an hour in dense crowd no ventilation small space queueing for passport control) and I want to know:

If this PCR is negative then when would be the optimal time to do a couple of lateral flow tests just to check?
Would it be day 8 after that exposure - is that why they used to have this timeframe ?
 
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2hats said:
You can't (or wouldn't waste your time/money) trying to sequence something your diagnostics are telling you isn't there.
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Not the way to look at it, the point is there is a suspicion that actually there is something there but the test no longer picks it up, surely that needs investigating?
 
_Russ_ said:
Not the way to look at it, the point is there is a suspicion that actually there is something there but the test no longer picks it up, surely that needs investigating?
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It's not practical or a good use of resources to try and sequence 10,000s of negative PCR tests to maybe pick up a very small number that were false negatives. And even if you could and then did it's very likely the sequencing wouldn't tell you something of interest or use.
 
They should probably do some sequencing of negative PCR samples where LFTs have been positive based on the increased frequency of these. There’s been quite a few cases like mine where the PCR was eventually positive so hopefully any new flavour will get picked up through routine testing of those anyway.
 
little_legs said:
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Those numbers are just amazing. How much of our case numbers is to do with the number of tests being carried out here compared to those other european countries and how much is just that 'we' seem to have given up whilst they haven't? (i was in Rome, 'green pass' checks everywhere and everybody is masked, even in places like outdoor markets, and I did not see one single person wearing their mask on their chin).
 
(Not sure which thread is best, so here’ll do…)

I’ve just been offered a booster jab. I’ve no underlying health conditions, other than a smokers cough, and aren’t that old. I did have my second jab over a year ago, though, which is probably why.

I dunno if I approve tho. All the indications are that the vaccines will still be providing me with 80%+ protection, so while there are still billions around the world without it does seem a bit ‘me first, fuck you’
 
bimble said:
Those numbers are just amazing. How much of our case numbers is to do with the number of tests being carried out here compared to those other european countries and how much is just that 'we' seem to have given up whilst they haven't? (i was in Rome, 'green pass' checks everywhere and everybody is masked, even in places like outdoor markets, and I did not see one single person wearing their mask on their chin).
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Simplistic but useful ways to rule out variation in testing between countries include comparing the hospitalisation and death rates instead. Plus we could look for clues in the form of whether defenders of the UK approach try to make claims on this front rather than them relying on other ways to downplay the UK situation and failings.

The testing regimes do have some additional differences these days, such as some countries no longer offering free lateral flow tests in the way they were before. I dont expect this to make up the bulk of the difference though, there are real differences between approaches that are likely to be making a very real difference to the number of people getting infected in other countries compared to our own. I will do some digging into this later.
 
Deaths for Italy and France seem currently to be running at 1/3 to 1/2 of the UK's - which is less of a difference than seen in the case numbers. But still a fairly significant difference.

Italy still has a higher total deaths rate than the UK though. And France's total rate is not much below the UK's.
 
Differences in approach that other people might want to dig into in the meantime include looking at what mitigation measures other countries have successfully used in education settings compared to the dismal UK approach on that front. Plus levels of vaccination in other countries, including age groups where the UK was very slow to start, and is not progressing at suitable page (eg younger teenagers).
 
ourworldindata.org

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Hospitalizations

On this page, we provide daily-updated data on hospitalizations and intensive care (ICU) admissions due to COVID-19. Our hospital & ICU data is collected from official sources and collated by Our World in Data. The complete list of country-by-country sources is available on GitHub.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org

Screenshot 2021-10-13 at 12.13.55.png
 
elbows said:
ourworldindata.org

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Hospitalizations

On this page, we provide daily-updated data on hospitalizations and intensive care (ICU) admissions due to COVID-19. Our hospital & ICU data is collected from official sources and collated by Our World in Data. The complete list of country-by-country sources is available on GitHub.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org

View attachment 292565
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It's a measure of how cynical this period in politics is making me that my immediate thought on seeing this graph was 'I expect Johnson's polling will rise then'.
 
So we have more than 5 times as many people seriousy ill with covid than Italy does at the moment (very similar population numbers). That is not explainable by the fact that they have to pay to get tested. It has been a strange experience to be in a place where people are still behaving as though there's a pandemic on, and then come back here where they are mostly just not at all.
 
I would imagine that the figures in Germany currently are pretty accurate and reflecting a similar level of testing/detection of cases to the UK (although the free LFT tests just got scrapped).

However, there is great concern that the winter is going to be very challenging and some additional measures to the ones currently in place might be needed.

Mainly because of the comparatively poor vaccination rate, combined with lower naturally acquired immunity because Germany's case numbers over the last year were lower overall.

If I understood my man Drosten right (who I haven't quoted/paraphrased in a long time), he seemed to think that by comparison and with its level of "hybrid" immunity, the UK might just about get away with its current approach (though trying to "get away with it" is not a strategy he - or indeed I! - was in favour of).
 
Not my figures, and I've not looked into this data myself, but heres something in regars the positive LTFs/negaitve PCR situation. Probably a good idea to read the whole twitter thread this comes from. My brain hurts today so Im not adding my own thoughts to this at the moment.

 
bimble said:
I just went to the dentist. £15 Covid Surcharge is that normal? It meant they gave me a pair of those blue plastic shower caps to put on over my shoes. :facepalm:
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Abnormal as hell, surely!! :confused: :(

I went to mine on 6th October, and I have a follow-up appointment this Friday. No surcharges like that, and I doubt being in Wales makes any difference on this!! :hmm:
 
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