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Might be a silly question but if everyone now knows to avoid sneezing people or sneezing on others, and washing your hands regularly is good, how come it's still spreading like wildfire?
 
S☼I said:
Might be a silly question but if everyone now knows to avoid sneezing people or sneezing on others, and washing your hands regularly is good, how come it's still spreading like wildfire?
Click to expand...

When you see results published its for people who got infected a week or two ago.
 
And there are still a gazillion opportunities for it to spread.

Washing hands etc is not expected to stop the spread, it just contributes to slowing the progress of the virus. It can help a tipping point of transmission be reached, but not on its own, not even close. I dont know how its factored into models, it can make a real difference, but its not a game changer on its own.
 
There is also surface contamination.

Tonight I was trying to work out a way to use the motorway bogs without touching things that everybody else had touched. It wasn't possible.
 
weltweit said:
There is also surface contamination.

Tonight I was trying to work out a way to use the motorway bogs without touching things that everybody else had touched. It wasn't possible.
Click to expand...

Surface contamination is one of the reasons for the hand washing advice.

I havent needed to practice what order to do things in and what to touch things with yet because I am not visiting public bathrooms etc at the moment. But there is usually a way to do it in the right order that will leave you with clean hands. Especially where taps are configured to be controlled without touching, or with touching using a body part such as an elbow, etc.
 
weltweit said:
There is also surface contamination.

Tonight I was trying to work out a way to use the motorway bogs without touching things that everybody else had touched. It wasn't possible.
Click to expand...
Use a tissue to touch handles and switches. Elbows and feet to push doors open. For soap dispensers use your tissue holding hand to pump soap onto your other hand.
 
S☼I said:
Might be a silly question but if everyone now knows to avoid sneezing people or sneezing on others, and washing your hands regularly is good, how come it's still spreading like wildfire?
Click to expand...
How much can you really avoid people coughing and sneezing though? I've got a cold at the moment and was out today with my kids, one of whom has a cough and one who had a fever a few days ago, but you can't just stay at home if you have the sniffles just in case.
 
Because of the treatment I am currently on I have had to have my temperature checked everyday, several times. I have been told that if my temp hits 37.5 I have to ring the emergency number I have been given.
I have had it checked twice in the last hour, currently 37.7.
I am now sat waiting for someone to answer.
Obviously not expecting it to be Coronavirus, most likely some infection but apparently sepsis is a big worry. So I do not know how people cope in isolation waiting for the results.

ETA: Results in s&n.
 
Last edited:
wayward bob said:
at the risk of being overly flippant, suddenly it turns out why ASD is a superpower :thumbs:
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Double edged sword tbh. My son is 7 and has ASD. In 21 days we are due to fly to Melbourne via Singapore to see my wife's family. Its a trip he has done 3 times but we are now on full media blackout when he is about as the anxiety levels are building (he is not the only one tbf)

I've not shown him stats yet but I may have too to avoid a full meltdown at the gate at Heathrow, assuming we get that far.

It doesn't help that one of his special interests is planes and airports, so we are already well versed in which planes we are flying, what the airports are like etc

Tonight, for example, we had to find evidence of Singapore Airport being quiet (not hard)

I know its a proper first world problem but it feels very real!
 
we did our first family trip abroad (sweden) a couple of years back. kid1 coped but just barely. had lined up something as unthreatening as poss (it felt at the time) for this summer. to milan :facepalm:
 
Never mind, a pandemic offers lots of new ways to put our foot in it or say things that are true and false at the same time. Much of it probably needs to be said anyway, gotta let those sentiments out, well I know I do otherwise I would explode.
 
elbows said:
Never mind, a pandemic offers lots of new ways to put our foot in it or say things that are true and false at the same time. Much of it probably needs to be said anyway, gotta let those sentiments out, well I know I do otherwise I would explode.
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This!
 
Just a thought but isn’t it likely that the number of cases is much higher than the official numbers? For instance, I don’t have health insurance at the moment, hate hospitals, and have close to zero faith in the health service here. So I would have to be extremely ill to go to hospital and get tested. I would just stay at home, stay in bed, and self medicate. I can’t be the only one.
 
miss direct said:
Just a thought but isn’t it likely that the number of cases is much higher than the official numbers? For instance, I don’t have health insurance at the moment, hate hospitals, and have close to zero faith in the health service here. So I would have to be extremely ill to go to hospital and get tested. I would just stay at home, stay in bed, and self medicate. I can’t be the only one.
Click to expand...

There will be lots of people that have Covid-19 who show no signs at all, they'll just be getting on with normal business, they won't be counted either.
 
Fez909 said:
If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.

If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.

We're currently growing at 40% a day, so we're matching Italy at the equivalent point in time in their outbreak.

I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:

Friday, 6 March 2020163
Saturday, 7 March 2020228
Sunday, 8 March 2020319
Monday, 9 March 2020447
Tuesday, 10 March 2020626
Wednesday, 11 March 2020877
Thursday, 12 March 20201227
Friday, 13 March 20201473
Saturday, 14 March 20201767
Sunday, 15 March 20202121
Monday, 16 March 20202545
Tuesday, 17 March 20203054
Wednesday, 18 March 20203665
Thursday, 19 March 20204398
Friday, 20 March 20205277
Saturday, 21 March 20206333
Sunday, 22 March 20207599
Monday, 23 March 20209119
Tuesday, 24 March 202010943
Wednesday, 25 March 202013131
Thursday, 26 March 202015758

Obviously lots of caveats on this: This assumes we don't do anything and carry on as we are now. We know that if things get this bad then additional measures will be taken.

It also assumed that the growth rate stays at 20% after an initial fall, but we only have Italy to go on there. Our growth rates might be higher or lower. We don't know.

etc., etc.
Click to expand...
Revised these figures seeing as we have a few more days worth of data:

DateOriginal (40% then 20% from 13th)Revised (30% then 20% from 13th)
Friday, 6 March 2020163163
Saturday, 7 March 2020228212
Sunday, 8 March 2020319275
Monday, 9 March 2020447358
Tuesday, 10 March 2020626466
Wednesday, 11 March 2020877605
Thursday, 12 March 20201227787
Friday, 13 March 20201473944
Saturday, 14 March 202017671133
Sunday, 15 March 202021211360
Monday, 16 March 202025451631
Tuesday, 17 March 202030541958
Wednesday, 18 March 202036652349
Thursday, 19 March 202043982819
Friday, 20 March 202052773383
Saturday, 21 March 202063334060
Sunday, 22 March 202075994871
Monday, 23 March 202091195846
Tuesday, 24 March 2020109437015
Wednesday, 25 March 2020131318418
Thursday, 26 March 20201575810101

All the same caveats apply, etc., but these numbers put us about 13 days behind Italy.
 
Sprocket. said:
Because of the treatment I am currently on I have had to have my temperature checked everyday, several times. I have been told that if my temp hits 37.5 I have to ring the emergency number I have been given.
I have had it checked twice in the last hour, currently 37.7.
I am now sat waiting for someone to answer.
Obviously not expecting it to be Coronavirus, most likely some infection but apparently sepsis is a big worry. So I do not know how people cope in isolation waiting for the results.
Click to expand...
My brother is on a chemo pump at home & I have to monitor hiss temperature regularly but only need to call the hospital if it is outside of 36.0 to 38.0. The normal range is 36.5 to 37.5 so hopefully 37.7 is nothing too serious. Good luck with it.
 
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