Regarding Nepal, as per my many previous post on the topic, I concur wholeheartedly with blazzers.
All the information I have suggets that no solution will be forthcoming and the Nepali people will continue to suffer and die.
In the unlikely event the maoists prevail, I see no reason whatsoever to hope that the lot of the majority will improve.....And neither does any Nepali I have spoken to.
Hey nik,
Frankly, I can't (ever) see this happening. Certainly not to anything like the extent that occurred in the former USSR.
The country is poorer and less separatist than any of the Soviet peripherals were. The independence movements in Tibet and Xinjiang have been all but crushed. And vast migration of ethnic Han (Chinese) means that Tibetens and Uigurs are now all but minorities within their own provinces. All officials posted to/appointed in each province are loyal to the Party and the provinces are extremely closely watched for the merest signs of unrest.
When policemen can still send anyone to a forced labour camp for three years hard slog, without the need for a judge, court, trial, or any other authority, well, it certainly makes it easier to handle any "issues". Many hundreds/thousands are jailed within Tibet and Xinjiang, some have been languishing for decades.
Regarding Taiwan. Should the island look like it's preparing for independence, China will prepare for war. Should Taiwan declare independence, China will attack. I believe this unequivocably. The country is constutionally obliged to do so and will not hesitate - no matter the consequences. Further, should Taiwan provoke China to such an extent, I doubt it would muster much sympathy with the US which has clearly stated that it wants to see the status quo maintained and does not support ANY unilateral moves by the island.
The major problem is that China has staked too much on "territorial integrity", essentially selling it to the people as the most pressing social issue and HUGELY bigging up the return of HK and Macau in recent years (helps keep the masses from focussing on the REAL problems the country faces. China simply cannot afford to allow any loosening of its hard line. To do so would demonstrate to the Chinese people that the govt. "cannot hold the country together". This would spell the demise of the govt. the demise of the CCP and China descending into civil war and chaos.
I can't see it happening.
China will gradually democratise at it modernises over the next twenty years and this will lead to the eventual absorbsion of Taiwan, but prolly not before the middle of this century. For Tibet and Xinjiang, any realistic prospect of separation is non-existant - no meaningful countries would aid either province in such an attempt. Internal supression would be both brutal and decisive.
The continued "Hanification" of minority provinces and the (slowly) emerging benefits of economic freedom and infrastructure development further undermine seperatist tendencies.
I see a lot of rocky times ahead for China - there will be increasingly large-scale uprisings, riots, disturbances, etc. though not about autonomy/independence, but the more usual reasons of non-payment of wages, consfication of land by officials, endemic corruption accross all sectors of govermant and business/industry, the poisoning and degratation of village/community environments through industrial effluence and and pollution, the emerging VAST disparities of wealth across the country, both within and between provinces.
Last year, according the the State Ministry for the Interior, there were some 74,000 violent demonstrations across the country. The top guy of the ministry is now saying that wealth/income disparity is the prime cause and that unless wealth is spread more evenly, and other social problems dealt with far more rapidly, such disturbances will increase vastly in number and, that, if not tackled, the spiralling number of such incidents will threaten the very survival of the CCP before the end of this decade. And THAT'S the OFFICIAL line - you can be sure things are actually worse in reality!
Some of the incidents reported this year have involved thousands of villagers battling hundreds of police and security officils over days at a time after having "seized" the local government officials office, barracaded the village and burning all arriving police vehicles. Dozens were killed in some incidents.
That said, I thing China will pull through, will hold together in its current form and will emerge as a modern, thriving, giant of a global economic power.
I just spent a few days up in Zhuhai, a thriving south coast industrial city of several million. The rate of development never fails to astonish me. If you're away for a year you'll have trouble finding your way around upon return. Away for five years? You won't recognise the place at all as the one you previously visited (old buildings come down in two weeks and big, shiny, new ones go up in three months flat - factories, schools, offices, shops, light industrial, it just doesn't stop). Away for a decade? Where before, you stood in the middle of the countryside, surrounded by paddy fields as far as the eye could see, for miles in every direction, there's now a metropolis of five million or more people - at least half are immigrants from poorer provinces, mostly young, female, factory workers.
It's happening now and it ain't stopping for nobody.
The CCP have a tenuous hold outside of Beijing. Most of the south and east coast of the country consists of overlapping fiefdoms being milked by local officials, outside the radar of the centre. That said, the govt. through it's petty officials right down to village level, maintains a sprawling, if fragmented and decentralised grip across the country. Even if the left hand is unaware of the right and the central nervous system has limited control.
It's a mess, but an unbelievably exciting one. The east and south of the country (not to mention the commercial and political centres (Shanghai and Beijing respectively,) are vibrant, noisy, pushy, busy, hungry for business, hungry for growth and ready to face the world. There is a real sense among people that finally, at long, LONG last, their time is coming.
It is.
Woof
