Characterising UKIP?

[brogdale]

Failures?

I don't buy that.

Without the perceived threat of UKIP, Cameron would not have caved in to the swivel-eyed loons on his right. Maybe they're a better pressure group than party...but with Brexitref on stream they've won whislt also helping the right into power.

 

[butchersapron]

Only a child with eyes only on westminster could answer the question in that way. Have you no curiosity about society corax, no solidarity no interest in why people do things, why they don't,why they act? I though you were a christian?

 

[Corax]

Only a child with eyes only on westminster could answer the question in that way. Have you no curiosity about society corax, no solidarity no interest in why people do things, why they don't,why they act? I though you were a christian?

Oh do fuck off dear - flippant wry answers aren't banned in the FAQ. And back on ignore you go...

 

[ska invita]

Oh yeah, farage will be back after the summer anyway.

why do you say that? a hunch or is that whats out there?

 

[butchersapron]

why do you say that? a hunch or is that whats out there?

Brain work

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I got UKIP a bit wrong. Election proved that, as they hurt Labour possibly more than they hurt the Tories. They certainly had more purchase with former Labour voters than I thought they would.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't buy that.

Without the perceived threat of UKIP, Cameron would not have caved in to the swivel-eyed loons on his right. Maybe they're a better pressure group than party...but with Brexitref on stream they've won whislt also helping the right into power.

Yes, their success was always going to be measured by the effect they had on the other parties, imo. They successfully made immigration a central topic in the election for all sides.

 

[ViolentPanda]

why do you say that? a hunch or is that whats out there?

it makes sense after his quasi-resignation. There'll be the usual post-election recriminations, a bit of civil war between the muckety-mucks, and then Farage can walk back in and play the hero returning to the struggle because his people need him.

 

[ska invita]

i havent watched any coverage - getting it mainly off urban and a few other net sources - hadnt realised it was a quasi resignation

 

[ViolentPanda]

I got UKIP a bit wrong. Election proved that, as they hurt Labour possibly more than they hurt the Tories. They certainly had more purchase with former Labour voters than I thought they would.

I only need remember two words to know in my bones that Labour supporters are susceptible and even amenable to that sort of politics.
The two words? Frank Chapple.

 

[ska invita]

I only need remember two words to know in my bones that Labour supporters are susceptible and even amenable to that sort of politics.
The two words? Frank Chapple.

Can you explain more? What did Frank say and do?

 

[ViolentPanda]

Can you explain more? What did Frank say and do?

He was the leader of a trade union, later ennobled as Lord Chapple of Hoxton. His union (the EEPTU) was a by-word for Labour right-wing trade unionism, and his politics once in the upper house reflected his rightism.

 

[killer b]

Saw this vote share by region thing on twitter - interesting to see that the SE is near the bottom, when that's been their imagined heartland...

North E 16.7
Yorkshire 16.7
West Mid 16
East 16.4
East Mid 15.3
South E 14.9
South W 14
North W 13.7
London 8.2

 

[co-op]

They were supposed to melt away in the heat of the election - 13% i think it was they ended up with - and a big lot obv coming from labour voters. Comparison with BNP doesn't quite work - BNP - not such a national profile, better 2nd level of leadership (some of the guests on the progs last night showed this), people coming with experience from both other main parties, and crucially, a wider remit to cause trouble on than the BNP ever had and across a broader social spectrum with wider extended legitmacy (time and geography). A good leader like farage is going to help focus all that but a) these conditions might produce similarly skilled leaders and b) the conditions are not going way any time soon.

Also a lot of money, they got some very good campaigns up and running in a relatively short space of time.

 

[butchersapron]

Also a lot of money, they got some very good campaigns up and running in a relatively short space of time.

Always helps! I think the fact they could do hit-and-run style campaigns with that money was also useful to them. (greens seemed to learn from that over the month-moved away from pompous proposals they could be tied down to and robustly challenged on towards looser wouldn't it be nice style crap)

 

[treelover]

I got UKIP a bit wrong. Election proved that, as they hurt Labour possibly more than they hurt the Tories. They certainly had more purchase with former Labour voters than I thought they would.

Lots of us on here were fully aware who UKIP were appealing to, especially in the North.

 

[Combustible]

Looking at some of the valley's results in South Wales, UKIP have shot up to third or a quite distant second, whereas the Tory vote has either remained steady or increased a bit. The only party who have plummeted have been the Lib Dems, I wonder how many of those voters in 2010 went straight to UKIP.

 

[belboid]

Saw this vote share by region thing on twitter - interesting to see that the SE is near the bottom, when that's been their imagined heartland...

North E 16.7
Yorkshire 16.7
West Mid 16
East 16.4
East Mid 15.3
South E 14.9
South W 14
North W 13.7
London 8.2

there was a map of their results up somewhere, showing their highest votes in a darker purple. It was basically a map of run down coastal resorts and ex-mining areas

 

[co-op]

I wonder how many of those voters in 2010 went straight to UKIP.

At first sight it's crazy to suggest that Lib-Dem voters would have gone over to UKIP in any numbers but I wonder if maybe a few more did than people think; the 2010 vote for the LDs was a historic high and must have included quite a few people who were desperate for something different and took a punt on Clegg and Co., we might think that was naive but anyone who did that would have just had a pretty good lesson in political cycnism since and could well have gone over to UKIP as a two-fingered response to the coalition & bubble politics & all the rest of it.

 

[belboid]

they may have lost Thanet South, but they've just taken control of the council, from Labour.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/ukip-wins-control-of-its-first-uk-council

 

[crossthebreeze]

I agree there is evidence for a LibDem to UKIP swing in north east England (where I am) at least - there's lots of constituencies where Labour gained voting share, Conservatives' share stayed about the same, and the LibDem's share totally collapsed, while UKIP's share rose by a similar amount to come second or third. There were definitely people who voted LibDem in 2010 as a kind of anti-Labour/Conservative/Establishment protest rather than because of LibDem policies, and i did get the sense that some people were considering voting UKIP for similar reasons this time.

Personally i've also heard more anti-EU-immigration sentiment in the last two years from people in my neighbourhood than ever before, especially from people who I really wouldn't expect it from - and this seems to be linked to worries about austerity (about accessing schools, doctors surgeries, etc and about social problems which the council cuts have exacerbated, or about benefits). As Labour are pro-austerity they wouldn't have helped with this.

Less significantly in terms of numbers, but more worrying, its likely that with the collapse of BNP and NF much of the far right is supporting UKIP - certainly at least one of the local ex-BNP types had UKIP posters in their window this time, and EDL/Infidels/Britain First all seem to endorse (and be willing to physically intervene on behalf of) them.

 

[gosub]

Find it interesting that latest news bit on the UKIP site is largely about changing the UK voting system with a couple of sentences about the referendum tacked on the end.... time was winning that referendum would have been it's raison detre, now the priority is power for the party, how very animal farm

 

[Dogsauce]

Lib dem votes move to labour, labour votes out the other side to UKIP. That's how that 'swing' plays out. Not many are doing the direct LD-UKIP transition.

Some of the north will also be tactical switching from the Tories if that looked like a better vehicle to challenge labour incumbents, although my gut instinct is that not that many people vote tactically, a lot won't even know what party currently holds their seat.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Lib dem votes move to labour, labour votes out the other side to UKIP. That's how that 'swing' plays out. Not many are doing the direct LD-UKIP transition.
.

I suspect you're wrong. Makes sense for a vote against the main two to switch directly to another party not of the main two. LD voters aren't necessarily pro-EU liberals, and UKIP voters aren't necessarily anti-EU right-wingers. Some are just pissed off.

 

[bemused]

I can see them putting Suzanne Evens in charge and reinvent themselves as an English nationalist party before the 2017 referendum; which will vote to stay in the EU.

 

[butchersapron]

Here we go:

Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ

Of 50 seats that saw the largest 2010->2015 increase in Ukip vote share 32 were held by Labour, 17 by Conservatives & 1 by Lib Dem #GE2015

 

[butchersapron]

Lib dem votes move to labour, labour votes out the other side to UKIP. That's how that 'swing' plays out. Not many are doing the direct LD-UKIP transition.

Some of the north will also be tactical switching from the Tories if that looked like a better vehicle to challenge labour incumbents, although my gut instinct is that not that many people vote tactically, a lot won't even know what party currently holds their seat.

Some of the lib-dems moved to labour in labour seats, those in the marginals went to tory.

 

[brogdale]

Some of the lib-dems moved to labour in labour seats, those in the marginals went to tory.

yep, and some on the media now bleating that they didn't actually want a tory maj administration

 

[treelover]

Here we go:

Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ

Of 50 seats that saw the largest 2010->2015 increase in Ukip vote share 32 were held by Labour, 17 by Conservatives & 1 by Lib Dem #GE2015

That really does show the hubris of the labour figures who were proclaiming loudly it would only be the Tories who were affected by the rise of UKIP, all in all, a massive strategic mistake.

 

[brogdale]

That really does show the hubris of the labour figures who were proclaiming loudly it would only be the Tories who were affected by the rise of UKIP, all in all, a massive strategic mistake.

I figure we're going to see a great deal of analysis on this issue of UKIP damage to Labour. Here's the Indy's take on it...

Labour figures have admitted they underestimated the threat from Ukip, after it emerged that Nigel Farage’s party may have deprived Labour of victory in many seats in last week’s election.

Analysis of the results by The Independent shows that Ukip won more votes than the size of the Conservative majority in nine seats the Tories gained from Labour. They included Morley and Outwood, where the former shadow Chancellor Ed Balls suffered a shock defeat by 442 votes after the third-placed Ukip candidate won 7,951 votes.

and the Statesman has this...

One of Ukip’s main aims of the election was to establish a base from which to launch a renewed assault on Labour’s heartlands at the next election: the 2020 strategy. Paul Nuttall, Ukip’s deputy leader, told me in January that he hoped Ukip would “crack the dam” in the north this time and make “big, big gains” at the next election. Of the 120 seats in which Ukip came second, 44 were in Labour seats. Nine of these were in the 20 seats with the lowest turnout; across the 20, Ukip averaged 17 per cent.

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