Characterising UKIP?

[brogdale]

...and this morning...the best characterisation has to be troubled...

2m ago10:59

Matthew Goodwin, the academic and Ukip specialist who co-authored Revolt on the Right and who is writing a book about Ukip’s election campaign, tells me the current crisis - with Nigel Farage at war with both Douglas Carswell and Patrick O’Flynn - could be the most serious in Ukip’s history.

In the history of Ukip, this split is perhaps the most significant of all. They are all senior players, and some of those who are criticising Nigel Farage were personally recruited by Farage, including Patrick O’Flynn.

It is difficult to see how this can be resolved in a quick manner. It has also arrived just at the moment when we have seen evidence at the election of how Ukip is able to attract support in Conservative and Labour areas.

 

[treelover]

I figure we're going to see a great deal of analysis on this issue of UKIP damage to Labour. Here's the Indy's take on it...

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and the Statesman has this...

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Labour really are in big trouble, squeezed on all sides, I'm not sure another leader will make that much difference, time to start building bridges.

 

[Pickman's model]

Labour really are in big trouble, squeezed on all sides, I'm not sure another leader will make that much difference, time to start building bridges.

instead of embarking on civil engineering projects a period of political introspection might be a good idea.

 

[sihhi]

Only the UKIP MEP out of British MEPs in the European Parliament's Trade committee voted against proceeding with the TTIP, all the Labour MEPs voted for it.

They are to the left of the Labour in the arena where they have elected muscle which is Brussels.

This is their spin on it
http://www.ukip.org/william_dartmou...e_nhs_against_ttip_in_the_european_parliament

Their local government power is surprisingly small for what is obviously a mass party, however its selling point is that it has no whip for its councillors meaning the sense of councillors listening to their small electorate.

http://www.lgcplus.com/news/politics/ukip-joins-ruling-coalition-in-midlands/5086574.article

I think Thanet where they have power might try to paint itself as a populist Kent version of Tower Hamlets First

 

[treelover]

I met my close relative last weekend, he really wants to stand for UKIP, humanise it, etc, he says the biggest motivation for joining is they support the armed forces and the left, well, the greens, "want to 'abolish the army".

 

[Streathamite]

Labour really are in big trouble, squeezed on all sides, I'm not sure another leader will make that much difference, time to start building bridges.

They need to do more than that a whoselale, root-and-branch renewal, and re-connection, with the people who should, by any logic, be their raison d'etre; the have-nots, the masses.
They are finding out the hard way, that if you neglect your roots for long enough, they wither and die.
They need to work out wheter they wish to - and can afford to - completely cut themselves off from those roots to become in entirety and in essence - a middle-class fabian centre-right party - or whether they want to try and save somethin from this wreckage.
And, tbh, either way I care not in the slightest.

 

[DotCommunist]

They need to do more than that a whoselale, root-and-branch renewal, and re-connection, with the people who should, by any logic, be their raison d'etre; the have-nots, the masses.
They are finding out the hard way, that if you neglect your roots for long enough, they wither and die.
They need to work out wheter they wish to - and can afford to - completely cut themselves off from those roots to become in entirety and in essence - a middle-class fabian centre-right party - or whether they want to try and save somethin from this wreckage.
And, tbh, either way I care not in the slightest.

we know the answer. They've automatically said they lost cos ed was the second coming of lenin or something and renewed calls to fellate the CBI while chasing the aspirational m/c vote they supposedly lost by being too red

 

[Streathamite]

as they hurt Labour possibly more than they hurt the Tories. They certainly had more purchase with former Labour voters than I thought they would.

tbf, that was their plan all along. Not hindsight - from years back, they saw traditional Labour voters as their 'low hanging fruit'.

 

[andysays]

tbf, that was their plan all along. Not hindsight - from years back, they saw traditional Labour voters as their 'low hanging fruit'.

I'm not sure that's the right metaphor but to extend it, they've now found the fruit has withered on the vine

 

[gareth taylor]

I'm not sure that's the right metaphor but to extend it, they've now found the fruit has withered on the vine

ukip may be gone by 2017

 

[Quartz]

ukip may be gone by 2017

I'm sure something similar was said about the SNP some years ago.

 

[butchersapron]

I'm sure something similar was said about the SNP some years ago.

By such noted commentators as Gareth?

 

[gareth taylor]

By such noted commentators as Gareth?

eu vote will be make or break for them

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Just like the no vote decimated the SNP.

 

[gosub]

but the No thats winnable, out of EU but still in Single Market, is at odds with UKIP's Immigrants!, we must do something about immigrants

 

[butchersapron]

Anyone?

 

[gareth taylor]

Just like the no vote decimated the SNP.

its different for ukip, if eu vote goes against them really they don't have much more to offer

 

[andysays]

its different for ukip, if eu vote goes against them really they don't have much more to offer

Another (equally simplistic, but you started it) way of looking at it is that if the EU vote goes the way they want, they will have served their purpose and won't have anything more to offer

 

[brogdale]

Would be interesting to know how the 0.75m SE England voters who helped elect Janice Atkinson in 2014 feel about her defection to the FN led group "Europe of nations and freedom".

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/16/ex-ukip-janice-atkinson-joins-le-pen-led-eu-group

 

[gareth taylor]

Another (equally simplistic, but you started it) way of looking at it is that if the EU vote goes the way they want, they will have served their purpose and won't have anything more to offer

or maybe it drive more support there way ! you never know,

 

[youngian]

Would be interesting to know how the 0.75m SE England voters who helped elect Janice Atkinson in 2014 feel about her defection to the FN led group "Europe of nations and freedom".

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/16/ex-ukip-janice-atkinson-joins-le-pen-led-eu-group

If they didn't get a feel of who Ukip were when they voted for her, I doubt this news will mean very much.

 

[gosub]

or maybe it drive more support there way ! you never know,

With tory euroskeptics leashed to Cameron til after his 11th hour EUropean negotiations, short term party politicing such as yesterday's :

might serve them quite well, though if the government haven't depoliticized the civil service when the referendum legislation comes back for review, they may well end up with a couple more MP's.

More interesting is what will happen on the left, depending on Labour leadership, and more importantly what is in TATP, could see new party emerging out of Labour /SNP, particuraly if TATP as expected opens the door to the NHS for US Health insurance companies

 

[Streathamite]

I'm not sure that's the right metaphor but to extend it, they've now found the fruit has withered on the vine

their words (or that one of their senior people, IIRC), not mine. Can't find the quote. Sure I'm right, though.
(Also, I'm pretty sure they meant by fruit 'traditional labour-type voters, or voters in Labour heartlands')

 

[Streathamite]

ukip may be gone by 2017

I doubt it. very much indeed. for all thedir batshit aspects, they struck too loud and resonant a chord, with too many. Thedir momentum was driven by people - loads of them - flocking to their flag.

 

[gareth taylor]

I doubt it. very much indeed. for all thedir batshit aspects, they struck too loud and resonant a chord, with too many. Thedir momentum was driven by people - loads of them - flocking to their flag.

just under 4 million people in the uk

 

[DotCommunist]

just under 4 million people in the uk

just over three million, yes in the UK given they don't campaign for office in any other country.

much as I despise their politics, thats a lot of votes with only one seat to show for it.

 

[William of Walworth]

I doubt it. very much indeed. for all thedir batshit aspects, they struck too loud and resonant a chord, with too many. Thedir momentum was driven by people - loads of them - flocking to their flag.

I agree with that, but I also wonder what proportion of their support is soft/flakey.

 

[brogdale]

just over three million, yes in the UK given they don't campaign for office in any other country.

much as I despise their politics, thats a lot of votes with only one seat to show for it.

3.88m

 

[gareth taylor]

I agree with that, but I also wonder what proportion of their support is soft/flakey.

I really disagree with all this talk of everyone who votes ukip is racist it is total nonsense !

 

[andysays]

their words (or that one of their senior people, IIRC), not mine. Can't find the quote. Sure I'm right, though.
(Also, I'm pretty sure they meant by fruit 'traditional labour-type voters, or voters in Labour heartlands')

Apologies, I misunderstood your post.

Your use of the metaphor was correct and the withering on the vine applies to what happened to the Labour party support from their point of view.