Characterising UKIP?

[ViolentPanda]

You're missing the point entirely.

Polls are bollix. What is helpful is seat number predictions.

Some polls are bollocks, some are accurate. Depends on the methodology and the analysis, as well as the spin outside parties (the media etc) put on that.

But sure, go back and marvel at how wonderful YouGov were at getting within 3% of the Tory vote.

Have I marveled at anything of the sort? No. Don't let that stop you vocalising rectally, though.

 

[ViolentPanda]

the cleverest man on Earth

Once humanity has died off, anyway.

 

[ViolentPanda]

What's happening outside the narrow world of middle-class swing voters in key marginals is interesting for reasons other than 'who wins?'

Yep. Not least because an indication of current political dynamics is given, which allows the likes of us to predict where the major parties will go policy-wise, and the political pointy-heads to trim their sails to the prevailing wind.

 

[belboid]

You're missing the point entirely.

Polls are bollix. What is helpful is seat number predictions.

But sure, go back and marvel at how wonderful YouGov were at getting within 3% of the Tory vote.

Jesus, are you trying to get dumber each post? How do they get those seat number predictions, then?

 

[ViolentPanda]

There was a pensioner interviewed on Victoria Derbyshire on BBC, he said he was torn "between Labour and Ukip over the high levels of immigration", yet when he discussed his concerns he talked about workfare, benefit levels, cuts, etc and how awful they were.

All that's doing is manifesting the difference between voting with your head, and voting with your heart, to be fair.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Jesus, are you trying to get dumber each post? How do they get those seat number predictions, then?

Necromancy, blatantly, and a direct line of communications to Beelzebubbles.

 

[redsquirrel]

You're missing the point entirely.

Polls are bollix. What is helpful is seat number predictions.

But sure, go back and marvel at how wonderful YouGov were at getting within 3% of the Tory vote.

How do you think people make those seat number predictions? Most models will use polling data you knob.

I'm just catching up on the thread, and I'm realising that Up the junction's opinions don't actually tally with each other, never mind reality.

Oh well.

Aye, don't know why I'm bothering he(?) can't even keep his story straight for a page.

 

[Up the junction]

Have I marveled at anything of the sort? No. Don't let that stop you vocalising rectally, though.

I have no idea who you are. Nor you I. In those circs people assume a generic usage, unless a little precious.

 

[belboid]

I have no idea who you are. Nor you I. In those circs people assume a generic usage, unless a little precious.

and some people just talk rubbish and refuse to answer criticisms

 

[ViolentPanda]

I have no idea who you are. Nor you I.

Who you are? No.
That you talk out of your arse, though, that's pretty easy to discern.

In those circs people assume a generic usage, unless a little precious.

People do, do they?
It's always good to be told what people do, especially when the telling is itself based on assumption.

 

[Up the junction]

LOL. Proper Kenneth Williams.

 

[rioted]

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n08/james-meek/why-are-you-still-here

Interesting article on the political dynamics of Grimsby from the London Review of Books. The UKIP agent is the partner of the TUSC candidate.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

It's not on the British Election Study website as a news item, but poliitcalbetting.com has an interesting piece on BES research which suggests that Kippers tend to be managerial and supervisory, rather than being disenfranchised victims of the commodity labour market.

 

[ViolentPanda]

LOL. Proper Kenneth Williams.

So, as ever, you've got nowt substantive to say.

 

[teqniq]

 

[teqniq]

 

[Idris2002]

Hard to believe he's barely in his early 20s.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Swiss Toni's let himself go!

 

[brogdale]

Swiss Toni's let himself go!

Standing for election. Standing for election is very much like....

 

[rioted]

An academics take:
Real Man, Real Emotions? The Truth behind Nigel Farage’s Cocksure Campaigning

 

[treelover]

Farage, who has pulled out of a BBC Radio 1 appearance later today, told Sky News:

Ukip are the fourth major party in British politics and that is something that has been respected by Sky, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 but not by the BBC. If I was in a position of power, I would take away a lot of their funding, a lot of their influence.

from G update
Threatening the BBC?

 

[belboid]

from G update
Threatening the BBC?

yes, its been a frequent theme throughout their campaign. The reporting to the police of HIGNFY as well. Let's hope no one calls them racist, or the Rahman verdict will mean they could have the election rerun!

 

[CNT36]

from G update
Threatening the BBC?

If only they'd had some coverage on the BBC, been regularly invited to and discussed on Question Time or their leader been given an hour to himself in Question Times usual spot. Discrimination.

 

[brogdale]

The answer...it turns out is....very successful.

A right-wing government offering an "in/out" EuroRef. Tick. Job done.

 

[Dogsauce]

Bring on the referendum and bury the issue, I'm sick of it. The (fanciful) nightmare scenario with that is that UKIP gain support campaigning for an out (like the SNP in Scotland) then retain support and activists afterwards (even in the event of a loss) and get an SNP-style landslide.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Bumping this, rather than starting a new thread, to ask:

With Farage stepping down as leader of UKIP, are they going to be able to continue to capitalise on their relative success at the election? Or will they go the way of the BNP - when the 'charismatic' figurehead goes, they fall apart and disappear from the public consciousness?

 

[butchersapron]

They were supposed to melt away in the heat of the election - 13% i think it was they ended up with - and a big lot obv coming from labour voters. Comparison with BNP doesn't quite work - BNP - not such a national profile, better 2nd level of leadership (some of the guests on the progs last night showed this), people coming with experience from both other main parties, and crucially, a wider remit to cause trouble on than the BNP ever had and across a broader social spectrum with wider extended legitmacy (time and geography). A good leader like farage is going to help focus all that but a) these conditions might produce similarly skilled leaders and b) the conditions are not going way any time soon.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh yeah, farage will be back after the summer anyway.

 

[Dogsauce]

They're scoring well in the local elections in Leeds, no seats but in the traditionally working class areas they're generally getting a couple of thousand votes, quite a few second places. Those votes aren't coming from the tories.

 

[Corax]

Be interesting to discuss what type of Party/movement UKIP actually are

Failures?