burma - potential uprising?

[fela fan]

As was the Ayotollah Khomeini and the Iranian mullahs in the run-up to the toppling of the Shah's regime.

It's absurd for anyone to think the monks want the power. All they want is to get rid of the evil regime that runs the country. The monks are the people, and both rely upon each other in buddhist countries like burma and thailand.

 

[fela fan]

The only defence is people power, the working class and all working people organising its own genuie root and branch rank and file democracy

Hey, take your theories elsewhere. All those slogans and terms you're using are offensive to what's going on here.

You just explain how 'people power' is going to block the bullets. And why the 'working people' have made only one effort in 40 years to gain their freedom.

 

[poster342002]

It's absurd for anyone to think the monks want the power. All they want is to get rid of the evil regime that runs the country. The monks are the people, and both rely upon each other in buddhist countries like burma and thailand.

Yes, but that was also the case with most of the Iranian clergy that led the toppling of the Shah - it was all talk of establishing parliamentary deomcracy during the inital protests. The theocracy came afterwards once the Shah was toppled.

It only takes enough people within that movement to want to ride to power on the back of it for it to happen once the critical-mass is there.

 

[poster342002]

All those slogans and terms you're using are offensive to what's going on here.

I wouldn't say that.

 

[urbanrevolt]

The closest they've got in over 40 years was in 1988. They achieved five days of freedom before getting gunned down in the midst of their newfound joy.

They have been ignored ever since by the international community. They have pleaded for years to be helped by the UN or whoever might be able to help. What are they going to do in front of all the bullets, dodge them?

And your comment about the working class uniting is so anglo-centric and out of place in this context.

Can't see this last point. Do you mean that the working class is a minority? Or what? May be but then the urban masses probably are the key, though certainly they should make links with the farmers and probably I should have said the working people as a whole

But as for dodging bullets well no clearly not but the history of many countries not actually primarily England shows that actually the working people united can defeat a dictatorship; if the support is strong, soldiers begin to refuse to follow orders to turn on their fellow citizens.

As for the UN intervening what sort of solution is that? The UN would only interven to crush a popular uprising not in support of one.

 

[Brainaddict]

Yes, but that was also the case with most of the Iranian clergy that led the toppling of the Shah - it was all talk of establishing parliamentary deomcracy during the inital protests. The theocracy came afterwards once the Shah was toppled.

It only takes enough people within that movement to want to ride to power on the back of it for it to happen once the critical-mass is there.

I see what you mean but I just think the dynamic is a bit different in Burma. For instance the main political figurehead of the campaign is a big advocate of democracy.

 

[poster342002]

I see what you mean but I just think the dynamic is a bit different in Burma. For instance the main political figurehead of the campaign is a big advocate of democracy.

So was the Ayatollah Khomeini, in the beginning. I can't remember exactly where I read it (so I don't have a reference, I'm afraid), but I'm sure he was interviewed just before he returned to Iran and said he intended to bring about a full parliamentary, multiparty democracy which would include women's rights and that sort of thing.

 

[Brainaddict]

Can't see this last point. Do you mean that the working class is a minority? Or what? May be but then the urban masses probably are the key, though certainly they should make links with the farmers and probably I should have said the working people as a whole

But as for dodging bullets well no clearly not but the history of many countries not actually primarily England shows that actually the working people united can defeat a dictatorship; if the support is strong, soldiers begin to refuse to follow orders to turn on their fellow citizens.

Yeah, I'm with fela fan here. I think you should take your bourgoise eurocentric theorising and shove it up yer jacksie

'working class' is a theoretical construct that may sometimes be helpful but simply has no relevance or importance in this situation.

 

[Brainaddict]

So was the Ayatollah Khomeini, in the beginning. I can't remember exactly where I read it (so I don't have a reference, I'm afraid), but I'm sure he was interviewed just before he returned to Iran and said he intended to bring about a full parliamentary, multiparty democracy which would include women's rights and that sort of thing.

Still, it's just very different. AFAIK the Iranian revolutionaries were a *very* uncomfortable mix of religious conservatives, leninist marxists and liberal democrats - something nasty was almost bound to happen post-revolution. I'm not aware of any such huge divides in the Burmese pro-democracy movement.

 

[poster342002]

Yeah, I'm with fela fan here. I think you should take your bourgoise eurocentric theorising and shove it up yer jacksie

'working class' is a theoretical construct that may sometimes be helpful but simply has no relevance or importance in this situation.

Why? Isi there no working class in Burma, then?

If anything's "bourgeoise" it's an uncritical analysis of a religious-establishment-led national movement.

 

[urbanrevolt]

In response to brainaddict

well whatever you think isn't the main point is it?

Most of thw world's working class don't lve in Europe at all.

The point is if there's a critical mass of ordinary people in Burma prepared to stand up to the power of the dictators we should support them

 

[Brainaddict]

Why? Isi there no working class in Burma, then?

As a conscious class? No. Is this the time to try to create a class consciousness among the urban workers and the peasants in order to ensure an 'authentic' revolution? Sure, yes, let's put these demonstrations on hold and start handing out 'Marxism for beginners' shall we? Wally.

 

[poster342002]

Still, it's just very different. AFAIK the Iranian revolutionaries were a *very* uncomfortable mix of religious conservatives, leninist marxists and liberal democrats - something nasty was almost bound to happen post-revolution. I'm not aware of any such huge divides in the Burmese pro-democracy movement.

Perhaps because there are no divides in this movement makes a Bhuddist theocratic regime even more likely afterwards?

 

[poster342002]

As a conscious class? No. Is this the time to try to create a class consciousness among the urban workers and the peasants in order to ensure an 'authentic' revolution? Sure, yes, let's put these demonstrations on hold and start handing out 'Marxism for beginners' shall we? Wally.

No-one's suggesting that.

We're hoping for the best outcome for the long-suffering Burmese people whilst being aware that the story ain't over once the regime falls.

 

[Brainaddict]

The point is if there's a critical mass of ordinary people in Burma prepared to stand up to the power of the dictators we should support them

Now with that I agree.

 

[poster342002]

We're hoping for the best outcome for the long-suffering Burmese people whilst being aware that the story ain't over once the regime falls.

Also, this especially aplies when we get the usual crap in the media about how "the new Burmese government MUST now get to grips with the urgent task of privatising all it's state-owned assets, cutting "wasteful" jobs, adopt a free-market economic programme and generally hand over the country and it's people to US/UK capitalistm".

 

[purves grundy]

ASSK moved to Insein Prison

Rangoon, 9:00 p.m.—Detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was moved to the notorious Insein prison from her Rangoon lakeside home at University Avenue, the Reuters news agency reported.

This indicates that they're very afraid about what tomorrow may bring.

 

[purves grundy]

Also, this especially aplies when we get the usual crap in the media about how "the new Burmese government MUST now get to grips with the urgent task of privatising all it's state-owned assets, cutting "wasteful" jobs, adopt a free-market economic programme and generally hand over the country and it's people to US/UK capitalistm".

Well that's up to the Burmese people. Do you think the elected MPs of the NLD and other parties are completely ignorant about the politics and economics of 'the outside world'?

Right now, some of the most despicable people in the world busy enriching themselves doing exactly what you've described above and ensuring the proceeds go only to themselves.

 

[Dillinger4]

I don't want to criticise what is actually happening in Burma itself, but on Channel 4 news this evening there was much mention of a lot of information being spread in Burma by the a satellite TV station, Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB). This is in turn is funded by the US National Endownment for Democracy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Voice_of_Burma

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Endowment_for_Democracy

NED have had involvement in some very dodgy South American coup attempts (as far as I know)

But anything is better than what they have now

 

[purves grundy]

I don't know much about the NED, but DVB is one of the most respected organizations currently reporting on Burma. It's run by exiles based in Norwary. I'm constantly stunned at the amount of footage they get from the farthest flung corners of Burma (viewable on their website), and for the vast majority of Burmese who don't have interweb access their radio broadcasts are avidly listened to (by soldiers too!)

 

[Groucho]

Military about to clamp down....

 

[mk12]

http://www.irrawaddy.org/

 

[purves grundy]

Tomorrow will be pivotal. The curfew might be respected - most of the protests have dispersed by nightfall as the monks go back to their monasteries - but it's the ruling on groups that will be tested (this law has been in place ever since the military came to power anyway, afaik.) The monks have opened this political space for the people, maybe it's time for them to keep it open whilst telling the people to stay back. Less likelihood of bloodshed that way.

Will the soldiers open fire? Rumours that the military head of Yangon Division has refused to order his soldiers to shoot haven't been confirmed. The Prime Minister, Soe Win (cunt), is on his death bed. His twin brother died a few days ago. If he goes expect jostling for this post, second only to Sr Gen Than Shwe, to bring disunity amongst the top brass. And we know how superstitious that bunch are - it could be taken as a 'sign'.

Good to hear strong statements from UN Sec Gen, EU, UK, USA - whatever you think of the USA, they are consistently ahead of any other government in their criticism of the regime - but sadly little support from other Buddhist countries, and nothing from ASEAN. Nothing from India. Emptiness from China. Scandalous.

International community, anyone?

 

[Dillinger4]

I suppose this isn't the US's 'backyard' as it were.

I imagine the US position would be different if this were a south american military dictatorship backed by the US.

 

[harpo]

Am glad to hear the EU has threatened sanctions if force is used against the protestors.

 

[harpo]

Tomorrow will be pivotal. The curfew might be respected - most of the protests have dispersed by nightfall as the monks go back to their monasteries - but it's the ruling on groups that will be tested (this law has been in place ever since the military came to power anyway, afaik.) The monks have opened this political space for the people, maybe it's time for them to keep it open whilst telling the people to stay back. Less likelihood of bloodshed that way.

Will the soldiers open fire? Rumours that the military head of Yangon Division has refused to order his soldiers to shoot haven't been confirmed. The Prime Minister, Soe Win (cunt), is on his death bed. His twin brother died a few days ago. If he goes expect jostling for this post, second only to Sr Gen Than Shwe, to bring disunity amongst the top brass. And we know how superstitious that bunch are - it could be taken as a 'sign'.

Good to hear strong statements from UN Sec Gen, EU, UK, USA - whatever you think of the USA, they are consistently ahead of any other government in their criticism of the regime - but sadly little support from other Buddhist countries, and nothing from ASEAN. Nothing from India. Emptiness from China. Scandalous.

International community, anyone?

Give them time. This has all escalated quickly.

 

[purves grundy]

I suppose this isn't the US's 'backyard' as it were.

I imagine the US position would be different if this were a south american military dictatorship backed by the US.

Yeah, probably. We could be a bit cynical I guess, and note that what's kept the Burma issue alive among many senators and congressmen in Amerkkka is the junta's harsh treatment of Christian minorities.

The NLD don't give a monkeys though, they're just happy to have such a massive power onside as you would be if you had China dead set against you (similar to Taiwan I suppose, but with even less trepidation by the USA.) They're savvy politicians though, well read and well-informed, they're aware of what the USA is up to in the outside world. Gotta be pragmatic when your back's against the wall like that.

 

[purves grundy]

Give them time.

ASEAN, you mean?

 

[harpo]

Not withstanding your points about the dominance of the western media, which I agree with, this is an uprising which has been a long time coming and will take a long battle of wills to resolve. Given global pressures, it won't turn military. It'll pan out to result in democracy. But not overnight.

 

[purves grundy]

Ah, time for democracy to be restored you mean. I agree wholeheartedly. It's been absent since 1962.

However, the political space the monks have opened is one which has been missing for years. The military have done everything they can to avoid dialogue with the elected MPs. They despise ASSK, won't even allow her name to be mentioned. And until these protests, it looked as though the junta had cemented the predominance of the military forever through their handpicked National Convention.

I can't see the junta falling soon either. They won't flee in the night a la Marcos because of the nature of the regime (although Than Shwe's wife and their children are supposed to have left for Thailand). But if this space can be kept open, if this spirit of defiance can be maintained and international pressure stepped up, we could see the beginning of a meaningful dialogue.

As for that leading to democracy, I agree, it'll take time.