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burma - potential uprising?

Hmm, I wonder what sort of things are being said by foreign governments behind the scenes and how much, if any effect this is going to have?

Additionally how much of a wedge exists between the average Burmese soldier and the monks/people? You get the impression that the only way this is going to end favourably is if the military at some level turn against the top brass and refuse orders.

Purves?
 
Barking_Mad said:
bc76787cfcf365f341b2.jpeg


More photo's here
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wow

that makes me proud to be human
 
Barking_Mad said:
Hmm, I wonder what sort of things are being said by foreign governments behind the scenes and how much, if any effect this is going to have?
Click to expand...

I wanna hear what Purves has to say too, but this what I'm getting from the media ...

The media suggest that China will be putting on heavy pressure behind the scenes to avoid bloodshed - which would be nice.

Anything else is flannel - Burma is too insulated from the rest of the world for it to make any difference. The US is giving no indication of wanting to go after this particular regime that uses violence "against it's own people" (gasp! shock! horror!) so we can expect this to come down to China (and India having some economic leverage).
 
Yeah, China must be exerting significant backroom pressure on the military to hold back the guns. The junta would have fallen a long time ago were it not for the financial and diplomatic support of the PRC, and to a lesser extent India and Russia. But backroom pleas can only go so far. Publically, China and Burma are the best of friends and the military draw significant clout from that.

China's reticence to issue any kind of statement is predictable, given their 'non-interference, internal politics is nothing to do with us' approach to foreign policy. More shocking is the lack of response from India, who actually have a minister in Burma pleding to invest in gas exploration there right now link. At such a critical juncture in Burma's history, this amounts to a show of support for whatever response the junta make.

A simple statement from these key players urging restraint and dialogue could make all the difference. The junta could not exist in its current guise if it wasn't for these countries, but such is their eagerness to win the military govt's favour for oil and gas contracts that they're falling over themselves to stay silent.

More controversially, I suppose you could see the lack of influence other countries and groups have over Burma as a consequence of sanctions. The most amoral countries in the world have invested there, so they have the most potential leverage - oh dear :(

The UN? The EU? I don't know if it would make much difference, but it certainly wouldn't hurt to hear something big from Ban Ki Moon. And the UN's pathetic 'special envoy' to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, also scandalously silent. Maybe I'm not au fait enough with diplomatic niceties, but there's a chink in the junta's armour right now and it needs to be exploited to the full.
 
Does the UN ever try to be effectual anywhere except at the margins? :(

Is there any prospect that the UN could bring sufficient pressure to bear on China and India? I guess there's no chance the security council will try to force China to act given that China is on it and has a veto.
 
Barking_Mad said:
Additionally how much of a wedge exists between the average Burmese soldier and the monks/people? You get the impression that the only way this is going to end favourably is if the military at some level turn against the top brass and refuse orders.
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Everyone in Burma knows somebody in the army. I've met a few from the low-to-mid ranks, and whilst they weren't openly anti-government they would chuckle and roll eyes when we talked about something like development. And like I said, even within the top brass there are hardliners and moderates. After Khin Nyunt's downfall, however, the moderates are far less inclined to speak out.

The ordinary rank-and-file soldier has a shitty life, but it's far more secure than the average Burmese. They're all Buddhist, but then so were the soldiers who opened fire on the monks in 88. My feeling is that they wouldn't disobey orders without some sort of a split in the upper ranks, and that's what the people will be assuming whilst praying for something different.

Most soldiers are stationed around the country in the junta's never-ending battle with the ethnic groups. To curb protesters, the military have recently come to rely on what they call 'conscientious civilians' from the USDA and their paramilitary Swann Arr Shin (strong people) group - bascially paid thugs like Papa Doc's Tonton Macoute. Even they have been outnumbered the past few days, although I'm sure many have donned monks' robes.

My friend has a theory that you could pay off around 300 senior military, perhaps 500 just to be sure, give them a safe haven to go to and a bit of cash and the remaining military would be more than happy to hand over to a civilian government. Give them a year or so to get comfortable in their villas, then knock on their door in the wee small hours and give them a taste of their own medicine.
 
ymu said:
Does the UN ever try to be effectual anywhere except at the margins? :(

Is there any prospect that the UN could bring sufficient pressure to bear on China and India? I guess there's no chance the security council will try to force China to act given that China is on it and has a veto.
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Shocking isn't it? It really shows the tooothlessness of that organization. And after the last failed resolution on Burma - vetoed by Russia and China, and with even non perm member South Africa voting against - I doubt another would be tabled unless the situation gets a lot worse.

There's an ASEAN meeting of foreign ministers + Condi Rice on Thursday, maybe something will come of that.

*doesn't hold breath*

yangon-today.jpg
 
looks like this might be about to come to a head, one way or the other...

Lorries equipped with loudspeakers have been seen driving through the streets of Burma's main city Rangoon warning residents not to join growing protests.

"People are not to follow, encourage or take part in these marches. Action will be taken against those who violate this order," the broadcast said.

But the monks leading the protests have vowed to continue despite the threats.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7011655.stm
 
China does not want another Tiananmen Square by proxy

China's default diplomatic position is that it does not "interfere" in the domestic politics of other countries - one might add, especially where supplies of energy and natural resources or strategic issues are involved. Beijing is averse to lectures on human rights and democracy at home, so naturally disinclined to deliver them abroad.

But China is now faced with the fact that the high diplomatic profile that goes with greater global power exposes it to new pressures to uphold international standards, and that if the country is to continue to sell her ascent to global superpower status as unthreatening, close partnerships with unsavoury regimes can produce undesirable blowback. China's previous intransigence on Darfur melted when campaigners married the Beijing Olympic games to China's support for the Sudanese regime to produce the slogan "Genocide Olympics". China suddenly found it convenient to send an envoy to Sudan and to play a more constructive role in multilateral efforts to resolve the crisis. A similar pressure is building over Burma.
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Very interesting. Fancy a trip to China Purves? :)

(And roll on Cold [Economic] War II also.)
 
It's certainly a good idea to be making much noise about the "Genocide Olympiad" at the moment. China is ultra-sensitive currently about its image with the worlds eyes swinging its way in the run up to the 08/08/08 Games.

A few, choice, public words from China would, as has been said, go a long way to helping the Burma regime stay its hand.

The situation is tense, to say the least and the SPRC is in a right fix. If they do nothing, protesters will take heart, if they do "something", it won't be pretty.


Woof
 
One of the saddest things about the burma situation is that the world has never cared about the burmese. It may well be because the media never talk about the country and the fact that it's been a giant prison camp for so long, but either way we can see at this point that hardly anyone outside of burma is saying anything of any worth.

I can almost guarantee that the military will open fire on either civilians or the monks or both. That is their way. It's why there've been no demonstrations for so many years. I think the only thing that can stop them is china, but we also have to recognise that the monks have effectively said that their objective is the total downfall of those who cling to power. Where in the world have those with power just simply said, okay, we no longer will keep the power when told to give it up?

And this is burma where their power comes from the barrel of their guns.

As for the soldiers not opening fire, disobeying orders, possible. But here in thailand, a similar country to burma, when they have opened fire in the past on thai people, the soldiers have always been 'shipped' in from upcountry, thereby avoiding the situation of soldiers killing their own neighbours.

Any reading of the way they shot at the people back in 1988 will tell the reader all they need to know about the kind of non-humans these generals are. They have a total disregard for life, and are guilty of some of the worst possible human rights abuses.
 
fela fan said:
As for the soldiers not opening fire, disobeying orders, possible. But here in thailand, a similar country to burma, when they have opened fire in the past on thai people, the soldiers have always been 'shipped' in from upcountry, thereby avoiding the situation of soldiers killing their own neighbours.
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That's interesting. Israel stations soldiers at the opposite end of the country from their homes also. Israelis joke that it is to keep the nationalised bus service profitable with trips home on leave, but that's a more plausible angle.

Let's pray China go for a pre-olympic PR coup.
 
For interested readers, it's worth mentioning that in 1990 in the military organised general elections, aung san suu kyi's party won 90% of the vote in a landslide. Legally they are the ruling government, but of course the generals simply refused to hand over the reigns of power.

They have since talked about writing a new constitution, and 17 years down the track, we still await that constitution!
 
yeah, the Chinese had to ship in soldiers from outside the city during the Tiananman Square demonstrations as the local troops ended up breaking bread with the people.
 
"On Monday, there were protests in at least 25 towns, with tens of thousands of people marching in Rangoon."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7011655.stm


Another thing i think i can almost guarantee, based on following events in burma for all the time i've lived in thailand is that the military will be brought down as a result of these protests. And very soon. This is quite extraordinary, 25 towns!! The people have been under fear for so long, the lid has now come off the pressure cooker. They have the monks leading them, not politicians. I think that previously fearful, they will now feel a mixture of emboldenment, excitement, and nervous anxiety.

I would say that history will record the fact that the monks brought down the evil regime.

And the international community will be seen as having done fuck all to help the poor burmese people throughout their many years of repression, and that if any outsider will be seen as having had a positive influence, it'll be china riding into the rescue at the 11th hour of burma's history.

And how amazing is all of that!
 
fela fan said:
I would say that history will record the fact that the monks brought down the evil regime.
Click to expand...
How do they maintain so much public respect when they've been bribed not to do this on and off for so long? Or is a part of the bribery a threat of massacring civilians?

fela fan said:
And the international community will be seen as having done fuck all to help the poor burmese people throughout their many years of repression, and that if any outsider will be seen as having had a positive influence, it'll be china riding into the rescue at the 11th hour of burma's history.
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It's certainly excellent timing - the Olympics are icing on the cake, but just as China is looking to open up and is getting deeply involved in Africa to extend its influence - fantastic!. Even as a Chinese dependency, life would be comparative heaven. :)
 
ymu said:
That's interesting. Israel stations soldiers at the opposite end of the country from their homes also. Israelis joke that it is to keep the nationalised bus service profitable with trips home on leave, but that's a more plausible angle.

Let's pray China go for a pre-olympic PR coup.
Click to expand...

In my new house in northern thailand my neighbours are policemen and soldiers (what the fuck did i do in a past life to warrant this?!), and of course in the times i see them, they're ordinary people aspiring ordinary things. They are all nice people, and no way would they find it possible to kill people they knew.

So if the government needed to open fire on us, they'd use soldiers unknown to us!

As for china possibly being the outside force that finally provided the longed-for outside assistance to the burmese people's cause to obtain their freedom, well, isn't it bloody amazing how strong humans attachment to face is! How so highly they view being viewed in a positive light.

And if this is the case, then the burmese people will come to view the awarding of the olympics to china as being the precursor to finally obtaining their freedom!

Watching history actually occur, it's amazing how things become inextricably linked based on no particular starting off point. Things all seem to kind of fall into place at a similar time, and when this happens, change occurs.
 
ymu said:
How do they maintain so much public respect when they've been bribed not to do this on and off for so long? Or is a part of the bribery a threat of massacring civilians?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure they have been bribed mate. Where did you read that?

But in both burma and thailand, both similarly majority buddhist nations, monks play a central role in people's lives. They cut right through the fabric of society and all functions that go on, weddings, funerals, receiving of food, giving of blessings, and so on. To me it often seems in reality more like a kind of animism, but either way, respect is simply accorded to monks as a matter of life itself. If you breathe, you respect monks!
 
fela fan said:
As for china possibly being the outside force that finally provided the longed-for outside assistance to the burmese people's cause to obtain their freedom, well, isn't it bloody amazing how strong humans attachment to face is! How so highly they view being viewed in a positive light.

And if this is the case, then the burmese people will come to view the awarding of the olympics to china as being the precursor to finally obtaining their freedom!

Watching history actually occur, it's amazing how things become inextricably linked based on no particular starting off point. Things all seem to kind of fall into place at a similar time, and when this happens, change occurs.
Click to expand...
Yeah - it'll herald the next clash of empires that's been waiting to fill the vacuum too. China are our best hope of getting rid of the US. In Cold War II, the US takes the role of economic basket-case and China is the economic power-house with vastly more people. Interesting times, but the US will be crushed once it's creditors have more lucrative markets which are hostile to it.

African terrorism next, is my guess. :(
 
ymu said:
Yeah - it'll herald the next clash of empires that's been waiting to fill the vacuum too. China are our best hope of getting rid of the US. In Cold War II, the US takes the role of economic basket-case and China is the economic power-house with vastly more people. Interesting times, but the US will be crushed once it's creditors have more lucrative markets which are hostile to it.

African terrorism next, is my guess. :(
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We'd need a new thread for that mate, but my guess is that the US will be humanity's last empire. It is the only way forward left to us that can deliver a world of no war (and therefore peace and justice), no empire but instead seven or so big blocks...
 
fela fan said:
I'm not sure they have been bribed mate. Where did you read that?

But in both burma and thailand, both similarly majority buddhist nations, monks play a central role in people's lives. They cut right through the fabric of society and all functions that go on, weddings, funerals, receiving of food, giving of blessings, and so on. To me it often seems in reality more like a kind of animism, but either way, respect is simply accorded to monks as a matter of life itself. If you breathe, you respect monks!
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Hmm - I thought it was on this thread - but wordsearch isn't picking up so I'll retract until I can reread.

But why have they not been doing this for 40 years?


Found it, first page:

purves grundy said:
Following earlier events, it looks like many monks are ready to stage demonstrations - expect numbers of around 300-400, which is miniscule by most country's standards. In Burma though, this is massive.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=8622

The junta are shit scared of the monks. They have a following which is far greater than The Lady, but in recent years monasteries have remained silent over poverty and human rights abuses as senior abbots have been bought off by the military.

The next few days are going to be very interesting and, I fear, very bloody.
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........

The Burma Campaign UK said its sources had reported the junta ordering 3,000 maroon monastic robes and telling soldiers to shave their heads, possibly to infiltrate the mass ranks of monks marching for an end to 45 years of unbroken military rule.

In 1988, agents provocateurs were seen stirring up the crowds, giving the military the pretext to restore order.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20965209/
 
From the Washington Post

Some Burma experts speculate that Beijing may be quietly restraining the generals from cracking down. But silent Chinese diplomacy and familiar U.S. denunciations are not likely to be enough. What's needed is forceful multilateral action making clear that the time has come for the regime to negotiate a political settlement with the country's democrats, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi -- coupled with explicit warnings of consequences if violence is used against peaceful protests.

The U.N. General Assembly offers a ready venue for concerted action by Asian and Western governments. Ms. Rice has said that she would like to see the group of countries that now negotiates with North Korea -- the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia and China -- evolve into a regional security structure; if so, this would be a great moment for it to collectively address the situation in Burma. Mr. Bush should make it clear that the United States will hold China responsible if there are massacres in Rangoon -- and that the fallout could tarnish the 2008 Olympics. One way or another, Burma's rulers must get the message that a powerful international alliance stands with those who are bravely parading across the country.
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fela fan said:
But in both burma and thailand, both similarly majority buddhist nations, monks play a central role in people's lives. They cut right through the fabric of society and all functions that go on, weddings, funerals, receiving of food, giving of blessings, and so on.
Click to expand...
Pretty much the same way Imams did in Iran before the 1979 toppling of the Shah...

Lets wait and see what happens here .. before, during and after any Burmese regime change brought about by the clergy...
 
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