BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[Wilf]

Right, I'm going with 118 defeat.

 

[equationgirl]

You guys actually watched matrix 3?

Yeah, it was bad.

 

[chilango]

they aren't acting according to any kind of decency or ideals - they never were. They formed entirely to take advantage of one thing: centrist remainers who feel politically homeless.

Agree with all of that.

So the one thing they won't be doing - tonight at least - is voting for May's deal. It would destroy what little base they have, what political capital they have accrued in the last few weeks. That anyone could imagine it's a possibility is just baffling tbh.

But this not so much.

I think the whole 2nd Ref schtick is really based on fundamental pro-EU principles. It's just shorthand for a kind of moderate, sensible metropolitan liberalism.

For the Tingers that's the position they're chasing. Sure, the likeliest way they'll pursue it is voting against May in the hope of getting that 2nd ref. But, my point is that they might see an opportunity to claim that centrist ground by - as I said above - posturing as the pragmatic grown-ups, rising above entrenched positions blah blah blah. I don't think that's that baffling a possibility.

Of course, this all assumes a certain amount of political planning for the future and a sense of where they sit politically and not just petulant wrecking of the Parties where they no longer see a career in.

 

[chilango]

...but killer b it's mostly just idle musings on my part whilst I wait with bated breath for yet another dramatic announcement that nothing much has changed.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The EU will not demand May goes. You're fucking mad.

I was saying they wouldn't. Chill out.

 

[8ball]

Right, I'm going with 118 defeat.

I’m going with 98.

Based on sweet FA, but might as well make a game of it.

 

[Supine]

157

 

[Kaka Tim]

i rekon she will lose by 50 -100.

She wont resign - they will have to force her out. Probably have to take her for a drive to some wheat fields with a grimly silent hit man from the 1922 committee sitting in the back. Car pulls over. Nicolas Soames gets out to take a piss ......

 

[chilango]

180

'cause I want to see the likes of Kuenssberg try and do the darts voice and fail miserably.

 

[SpackleFrog]

157

160.

 

[SpackleFrog]

180

Alright Sid Waddell

 

[sleaterkinney]

78

 

[chilango]

Alright Sid Waddell

See my edit

 

[brogdale]

148, simples

 

[Dogsauce]

72.5

 

[Dogsauce]

In one more hour, I will be gone
In one more hour, I'll leave this room
The dress you wore, the pretty shoes
Are things I left behind for you

 

[Sprocket.]

It won’t be the numbers that hurt, it will be the abandonment of her by so called allies at the last minute.
Oh the anguish, oh the sleepless nights.

 

[8ball]

It won’t be the numbers that hurt, it will be the abandonment of her by so called allies at the last minute.
Oh the anguish, oh the sleepless nights.

I think the numbers will hurt too.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Some Tory prick complaining about the collapse of wheat farming in the event of no deal which is not a possible event :/

E2A: In Commons I meant sorry. Not many people actually there.

 

[agricola]

Some Tory prick complaining about the collapse of wheat farming in the event of no deal which is not a possible event :/

E2A: In Commons I meant sorry. Not many people actually there.

She'll have a lot more time to run in the fields if she loses, so they may have a point there.

 

[Sprocket.]

Some Tory prick complaining about the collapse of wheat farming in the event of no deal which is not a possible event :/

E2A: In Commons I meant sorry. Not many people actually there.

Knock some stately homes down and make them community farms.
Sorted.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Right, I'm going with 118 defeat.

I was off by a country mile last time but I'll go with 176.

 

[8ball]

I was off by a country mile last time but I'll go with 176.

Ooh - smelling blood in the water?

 

[A380]

I still think it would be funny if Sinn Fein turned up and voted...

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm bored, when's the vote.

 

[8ball]

78

I wanted the bottom marker, dammit!

 

[Wilf]

I was thinking there'd be a good few abstentions, but actually, probably not. I'm going to make myself unpopular here and suggest that not even our politicians are so cowardly as to not vote on this.

Oh, hang on, I didn't vote in 2016.

 

[8ball]

Bit of a tricky job for Barclay, selling this one.

 

[Wilf]

Here's some more pointless speculation, this time from Sky:

Sky News projection

** Government will lose by more than 100 votes

345 MPs indicated they will vote against the deal
220 MPs will vote for the deal
72 unknown

That almost certainly adds up to losing by under 150, a significant shift from last time. But in any sane universe, she's gone. I'd say she may well be gone within the week, but if I did gambling it would be worth putting a tenner on her still being in place in, what, a month, six weeks?

 

[8ball]

Here's some more pointless speculation, this time from Sky:


That almost certainly adds up to losing by under 150, a significant shift from last time. But in any sane universe, she's gone. I'd say she may well be gone within the week, but if I did gambling it would be worth putting a tenner on her still being in place in, what, a month, six weeks?

I think you may be tripped up by your “sane universe” hypothesis.