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BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

Brexit crunch - WTF happens next?


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THE DUP have had a turnaround in their stance on Brexit and would like Britain to stay in the EU in order to preserve Northern Ireland’s place in the UK...rather than back May's deal.


Interesting
Dodds 'would remain over risking union'
I don’t think that’s a turnaround in their stance at all; it’s simply an explanation of their priorities.

Priorities which have already been remarked upon on these boards (by myself and others).
 
I don’t think that’s a turnaround in their stance at all; it’s simply an explanation of their priorities.

Priorities which have already been remarked upon on these boards (by myself and others).
There is a certain fitting irony to it though. The DUP were the only party in parliament to campaign for leave.

It also pleases me to see consequences for May for entering into an agreement with them.
 
And the brinkmanship only works with her own MPs of whom there are not enough as we have seen.Labour MPs would love to see her asking for a long extension because that will be the end of the Tories for the forseeable.
 
Given there are far fewer Black people in the country, he is probably right, obviously! Proportionately, he is probably right too IMO. I don't think anyone should under estimate what damage Farage and the frothing edl types did in terms of marginalising Black people and undermining the legitimacy of the left wing leave arguments.

Well if you didn't vote you can't complain about the outcome.
 
The interesting bit will be what happens next i.e. will she stand down or cling on. She has no shame so my guess is she stays until forced out (which can’t happen till December).

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MPs cant force out through the official process till december - but if the cabinet and the majority of mps tell her to fuck off and they wont serve under her she doesn't really have a choice. She will try to cling on for a bit yet - but i would be amazed if shes still there in two weeks time (unless she somehow gets her deal through).
Not sure what happens if she trys to trigger and election - i cant see the tories wanting her leading the campaign - but if they turf her out its civil war.
 
Well, if she had an obvious alternative in mind the threat of no deal/no brexit wouldn't really be a threat would it?
It's not just that she has no alternative policy in mind, it's that she clearly has no alternative plan in mind for actually delivering Brexit ie getting some sort of deal through parliament.

Going to the brink and dragging everyone - party, country, etc - over the edge with you doesn't count as a meaningful strategy in my book.
 
Plan B is laid out in Art 50 - in the event of not being able to reach a deal, we leave without one.
Which MPs failed to prevent when they didn’t back the repeal of Art 50 if a no deal scenario looms. Although they could still do that at the time. Not that there’s the numbers for anything. No plan has enough support.
 
It's not just that she has no alternative policy in mind, it's that she clearly has no alternative plan in mind for actually delivering Brexit ie getting some sort of deal through parliament.

Going to the brink and dragging everyone - party, country, etc - over the edge with you doesn't count as a meaningful strategy in my book.
But it cant work unless she looks serious? That doesn't mean theres no plan b. It just means she hasn't told you what it is.
 
That is legally accurate but May has clearly rowed back from that in recent weeks.
Well, to the extent that it was one of the threats she was making yesterday, I don’t think she has. It’s her bargaining stance with parliament (not the EU as first supposed).
 
But it cant work unless she looks serious? That doesn't mean theres no plan b. It just means she hasn't told you what it is.
I get what you're saying, but I really don't think she has any idea beyond yet another vote on her deal. She's like a WW1 general sending yet another division of infantry over the top to charge against the machine guns.
 
Well, to the extent that it was one of the threats she was making yesterday, I don’t think she has. It’s her bargaining stance with parliament (not the EU as first supposed).

I don’t think her heart’s in the bluff. She’s not a Mad Max libertarian like Patterson or Redwood. She’ll have been briefed about the chaos of no deal and will know that it’ll be on her if it happens.

It still *could* happen though. It’s just I think she’s more likely to go for another extension first.
 
I get what you're saying, but I really don't think she has any idea beyond yet another vote on her deal. She's like a WW1 general sending yet another division of infantry over the top to charge against the machine guns.
The narrative of truculant incompetence is a very attractive one, but I dont believe it. Which isn't to say that May's strategy will work, or that she hasn't possibly got lots of things wrong.

I think the nature of the political moment is that there isn't necessarily any strategy that will work though. So whatever May or any other replacement leader does, they'll be viewed by history to have fucked right up.
 
I don’t think her heart’s in the bluff. She’s not a Mad Max libertarian like Patterson or Redwood. She’ll have been briefed about the chaos of no deal and will know that it’ll be on her if it happens.

It still *could* happen though. It’s just I think she’s more likely to go for another extension first.
She's clearly more interested in her party and her "legacy" than she is in a stable economy. If she drags us to no deal then for a certain group of people she'll forever be the PM that defeated the traitors and gave us Brexit rather than the abject failure she'll be remembered as otherwise.
 
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She's clearly more interested in her party and her "legacy" than she is in a stable economy. If she drags us to no deal the for a certain group of people she'll forever be the PM that defeated the traitors and gave us Brexit rather than the abject failure she'll be remembered as otherwise.

This is also true.
 
From a Tory perspective, holding the party together is probably the most important thing for a long term stable economy, as if they dont the result will be a majority Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn. Everything the leadership is doing needs to be viewed through this prism (theres a similar but opposite prism on the Labour side)
 
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