Has this been posted here yet?
http://www.iwca.info/?p=10247
Who will fill the vacuum?
Labour’s general election defeat has been described by one high-ranking insider as perhaps ‘the greatest crisis the Labour party has faced since it was created’. Scotland has been lost to the SNP, and UKIP are eating into Labour’s core vote in England. New Labour believed it could turn its back on the working class as they would have ‘nowhere to go’: instead, the working class is turning its back on Labour in kind. Euro-nationalism is currently filling this vacuum in working class representation, almost by default, but the opportunity is there for a pro-working class alternative to Labour if progressive forces can be drawn together down the line.
The general election of 7 May saw the Labour party suffer what Jon Cruddas has called its ‘worst defeat since 1918′. Scotland, so long the party’s backbone, has been lost en masse to the SNP, while UKIP came third in the popular vote polling 3.8m votes and finishing second in 120 seats.
The UKIP surge came not just in the shires, as liberal prejudice would have liked, but also in the Labour heartland. Of the 50 seats that saw UKIP’s largest increase in vote share between 2010 and 2015, 32 were Labour. By region, UKIP’s biggest gains were in the Labour heartlands of Yorkshire and the North-East, and across the north UKIP averaged 16.9% in Labour-held seats.
Robert Ford, who has been tracking UKIP’s ascent in recent years, writes: ‘Ukip’s advance was strongest in seats with the largest concentrations of white voters, working-class voters, voters with no educational qualifications, and where opposition to immigration and the EU was highest. The strongest Ukip advances came in the seats along the east coast and in declining northern towns, where such factors came together. The party won shares of 25% or more in places such as Grimsby, Hartlepool, Thurrock and Boston and Skegness. Ukip’s performance also confounded those who argued that the party would primarily hurt the Conservatives – Ukip’s advance was slightly larger in Labour-held seats and Labour did four points worse in the areas where Ukip advanced most, compared to a 2-point Tory drop’ (link). Nigel Farage’s personal view is that ‘UKIP significantly helped the Conservatives win this election by tearing vast chunks out of the Labour vote in the north and the Midlands’ and that UKIP’s greatest growth potential is in Labour areas (link), something outlined in UKIP’s ’2020 strategy’ (link). Labour’s John Healey concurs with this view (link) and Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s only MP, has told Channel 4 that he sees UKIP’s future as being ‘a non-socialist alternative to Labour in England’.
The Labour hierarchy is in turmoil over how to respond to this: were they too left wing? Were they not left wing enough? The horrifying answer for them is: both and neither, illustrating the existential bind Labour finds itself in. It did not just haemorrhage support in the heartlands or Middle England, it did so in both. One may be soluble, the other may not.
The working class turning its back on Labour
The roots of Labour’s crisis are quite simple. The New Labour project was underpinned by the belief that Labour could ditch Clause 4, embrace neo-liberalism and orientate entirely to the middle class, safe in the knowledge that its working class core vote could be taken for granted because, in Peter Mandelson’s words, they had ‘nowhere to go’.
At the time is was noted by those that founded the IWCA that if New Labour dared turn its back on the working class, the working class would, contrary to New Labour wisdom, reciprocate. It was also concluded that Euro-nationalism was best placed to benefit from this as the de facto radical alternative, in the absence of a worthwhile offer to the working class from the left.
Sure enough, the BNP began to fill the vacuum in working class political representation, taking 192,000 votes in 2005 and over half a million in 2010, seeing the election of two MEPs in 2009 and 50-odd councillors, becoming the opposition in Burnley and Barking. The BNP’s collapse has been gleefully received as a vindication by the liberal left, but UKIP has assumed its constituency and substantially grown it (almost seven-fold from the BNP’s vote in 2010) with the benefit of experience (learning from the BNP’s mistakes, as the BNP learnt from the NF), superior middle management, a less toxic brand and greater corporate backing.
What this demonstrates is that the BNP’s success, and indeed that of UKIP, has very little to do with the innate charm of these parties and is more symptomatic of working class disillusionment with the political centre, Labour specifically. From 1997 onwards, directly coincident with the emergence of New Labour, electoral turn-out has fallen well below its post-war trend of around 75%, with 65% now seemingly established as the new norm (link). As the progenitors of the IWCA wrote in 1995: ‘In straightforward language, it is the politics of the Labour Party that has created the BNP… Labour and the Left are increasingly alien to working class people’ (link). The Oxford academics Geoffrey Evans and Jon Mellon wrote just before the 2015 election that ‘Labour’s move to the ‘liberal consensus’ on the EU and immigration alienated many of their core voters a long time before UKIP were an effective political presence. These disaffected core voters left Labour in 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010 and went to other parties—or simply stopped voting. UKIP has since attracted these disaffected former Labour voters, particularly from the Conservatives… the damage to Labour’s core support had already been done by new Labour’s focus on a pro-middle class, pro-EU and, as it eventually turned out, pro-immigration agenda, before the arrival of UKIP as a plausible electoral choice in the years following the 2010 election’ (link). [It will be interesting to see how much of UKIP's increased support has come directly from Labour this time.]
And ‘where the liberal left continues to ignore working class concerns and has priorities other than immediate working class interests, Euro-nationalism is capable and more than happy to ‘fill the vacuum”[1]. UKIP are doing precisely this.