Are Worldwide Food Shortages Coming? Rising costs, lower crop yields.

[Yuwipi Woman]

I think a lot of this is scaremongering, but I could be wrong:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means the food inflation that’s been plaguing global consumers is now tipping into a full-blown crisis, potentially outstripping even the pandemic’s blow and pushing millions more into hunger.

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for a whopping portion of the world’s agricultural supplies, exporting so much wheat, corn, sunflower oil and other foods that it adds up to more than a tenth of all calories traded globally. Now, shipments from both countries have virtually dried up.

Commodity markets are soaring — wheat is up about 50% in two weeks and corn just touched a decade high. The surging costs could end up weighing on currencies in emerging markets, where food represents a bigger share of consumer-price baskets. And analysts are predicting export flows will continue to be disrupted for months even if the war were to end tomorrow.

The World’s Next Food Emergency Is Here as War Compounds Hunger Crisis

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens supplies for key crops and fertilizers.

www.bloomberg.com

The US and most of the western world doesn't have as much to worry about as places where the food supply is more tenuous. (I do know people who are freaking out and panic buying food). There are rising food costs everywhere, including Europe and the US, and it will effect the poor (and poorer countries) more than others. Inflation is already taking a toll. And there may also be a shortage of fertilizers, which could constrict grain yields going forward. What we may be seeing is the end of globalism.

What is everyone's take on this?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Potentially this could be massive, setting off riots across the globe again.

See 'Unrest and government actions in individual countries and regions' here -

2007–2008 world food price crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ukraine invasion may lead to worldwide food crisis, warns UN

Food and Agriculture Organization sounds alarm as war threatens supply of wheat and other staples

www.theguardian.com

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Agreed.

Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-23

There is a list on the Russia protests thread about a strike at a factory over unpaid wages. How long can the Putin regime keep paying the wages of the army, the police and the other internal security forces? And what happens if pay stops?

www.urban75.net

 

[lazythursday]

I think it's incredibly worrying. Even if we don't see actual food shortages this year were bound to see huge price inflation on lots of products.

And it's a sign of things to come. What most people don't seem to get about climate change is that crop failures will likely get most of us long before sea level rise etc becomes a massive issue.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think it's incredibly worrying. Even if we don't see actual food shortages this year were bound to see huge price inflation on lots of products.

And it's a sign of things to come. What most people don't seem to get about climate change is that crop failures will likely get most of us long before sea level rise etc becomes a massive issue.

I've been helping out at a local food bank today, and the conversation was focused on increased food/energy & general inflation because of this bloody war, followed by climate change & crop failures hurtling down the track after that, and then half of Worthing disappearing under the sea.

Not the most cheerful conversation I've had down there TBH.

 

[JimW]

Fertiliser shortages/price hikes too, saw story here reassuring that national supply could be guaranteed from strategic stores and most key types primarily domestically produced.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I've been helping out at a local food bank today, and the conversation was focused on increased food/energy & general inflation because of this bloody war, followed by climate change & crop failures hurtling down the track after that, and then half of Worthing disappearing under the sea.

Not the most cheerful conversation I've had down there TBH.

I know people that get the free food boxes and they say that they are getting less than they used to. In addition, more of it is either close-dated, expired, or past edible. A lot of it is low quality, or off brands and products that no one really likes. I'm told they particularly try to avoid the beef stew packets and canned pork.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I know people that get the free food boxes and they say that they are getting less than they used to. In addition, more of it is either close-dated, expired, or past edible. A lot of it is low quality, or off brands and products that no one really likes. I'm told they particularly try to avoid the beef stew packets and canned pork.

That's not happening here, or at least not yet, no one is getting less, and nothing is beyond 'use by' dates, i.e. expired or past edible.

Near or just past 'best before' dates is not uncommon considering a lot is donated by the supermarkets, etc., for that reason, but that's fine, and are still perfectly edible.

Anything near 'use by' dates tend to go to the local soup kitchen & homeless charity knowing it will be used in a day or two, rather than being delivered to families that may not be able to use it in time. Nothing beyond 'use by' dates is donated, and would be refused anyway.

Plenty of fruit & veg still coming in & going out, they don't have refrigeration for stuff like milk, butter, cheese, etc., but have recently got a decent grant, so they can now issue vouchers for people to use for those things.

Of course, none of this is perfect, there shouldn't even be a need for food banks, but we are where we are.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

That's not happening here, or at least not yet, no one is getting less, and nothing is beyond 'use by' dates, i.e. expired or past edible.

Near or just past 'best before' dates is not uncommon considering a lot is donated by the supermarkets, etc., for that reason, but that's fine, and are still perfectly edible.

Anything near 'use by' dates tend to go to the local soup kitchen & homeless charity knowing it will be used in a day or two, rather than being delivered to families that may not be able to use it in time. Nothing beyond 'use by' dates is donated, and would be refused anyway.

Plenty of fruit & veg still coming in & going out, they don't have refrigeration for stuff like milk, butter, cheese, etc., but have recently got a decent grant, so they can now issue vouchers for people to use for those things.

Of course, none of this is perfect, there shouldn't even be a need for food banks, but we are where we are.

Some of it may be the type of program. The food box program is intended partly to prevent food waste from supermarkets, bakeries, and other suppliers ending up in the landfill. This is filled in with canned goods donated from the public. You can sometimes find a negative attitude toward people experiencing poverty from the public, even from churches who should know better.

 

[Artaxerxes]

That's not happening here, or at least not yet, no one is getting less, and nothing is beyond 'use by' dates, i.e. expired or past edible.

Near or just past 'best before' dates is not uncommon considering a lot is donated by the supermarkets, etc., for that reason, but that's fine, and are still perfectly edible.

Anything near 'use by' dates tend to go to the local soup kitchen & homeless charity knowing it will be used in a day or two, rather than being delivered to families that may not be able to use it in time. Nothing beyond 'use by' dates is donated, and would be refused anyway.

Plenty of fruit & veg still coming in & going out, they don't have refrigeration for stuff like milk, butter, cheese, etc., but have recently got a decent grant, so they can now issue vouchers for people to use for those things.

Of course, none of this is perfect, there shouldn't even be a need for food banks, but we are where we are.

One of the things we really need to try and cut down on is pre-made sandwiches. My local Tesco must chuck hundreds of those per week. Most regular heap of stuff on the reduced section.

 

[yield]

Fertiliser shortages/price hikes too, saw story here reassuring that national supply could be guaranteed from strategic stores and most key types primarily domestically produced.

China Faces Worst Crop Conditions Ever Due to Climate Change
23 March 2022

More extreme weather caused by rising global temperatures — compounded by geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic — is hindering China’s effort to ensure food supplies for its 1.4 billion population.

President Xi Jinping has made food security a priority for the world’s second-biggest economy, an effort to meet the soaring demand that’s pushed imports of corn, soybeans and wheat to record levels, making Beijing increasingly vulnerable to trade tensions and supply shocks. At the same time, climate change-induced disasters have caused widespread crop damage and shrunk the amount of arable land, making it harder to boost local production.

Tang Renjian, the country’s agriculture minister, brought up the threat at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month. “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn,” he told reporters. “Many farming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”

 

[Pickman's model]

Iirc 2007-08 was caused by hedge funds

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

The USDA commodity price projections are pretty grim. They project large commodity price increases across the board:

USDA ERS - World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance

This visualization provides highlights of the monthly WASDE projections for all field crops and livestock.

www.ers.usda.gov

USDA World Supply and Demand Outlook Report:

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0322.pdf

It looks like soybean production and prices are hit hard.

 

[yield]

Iirc 2007-08 was caused by hedge funds

Commodities traders caused starvation and malnutrition for 200 million people (2010)

 

[Yossarian]

Outlook seems grim indeed - I wonder if crop yields dropping will be enough to make governments, companies etc. get a little more serious about addressing the fact that 40% of all the food that is produced is thrown away.

 

[Pickman's model]

Outlook seems grim indeed - I wonder if crop yields dropping will be enough to make governments, companies etc. get a little more serious about addressing the fact that 40% of all the food that is produced is thrown away.

No

Next

And tbh it won't be us who suffer as much as people in the middle East and africa

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Iirc 2007-08 was caused by hedge funds

I'm sure if there's a buck to be made, they'll be right in there this time too.

 

[yield]

Soaring Prices Are Changing the Way People Eat
28 Mar 2022

(Bloomberg) -- In India, roadside restaurateurs are halving their palm oil use and moving into steamed snacks. Bakers in Ivory Coast want to cut the size of their standard baguette. Sandwiches from U.S. fast-food stalls are headed for fewer slices of bacon, pizzas for a more parsimonious sprinkle of pepperoni.

With the world economy already shackled by Covid-related shortages and now reeling from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prices of such basics as bread, meat and cooking oils have jumped across the world, sending shock waves through the commodity markets and damaging the global food system.

For the most vulnerable societies—think Yemen, which imports 90% of its food in the midst of a grinding conflict and depreciating currency—this poses a genuine risk of hunger. Elsewhere, it triggers worries about what economists call demand destruction, a phenomenon when goods get too pricey to purchase.

“The cupboards are bare,” said Julian Conway McGill, head of South East Asia at consultancy LMC International, “and consumers will have to reduce their intake.”

 

[yield]

Nearly 1 in 3 food companies forced to reduce or shutdown production
Brussels Times. Friday, 1 April 2022

No passing on costs

It would not be a reason to panic if food companies could pass on the higher bill to their clients, but that is not often the case. While the catering industry is willing to pay a higher price, retail relies on long contracts and fear losing market share and revenue when prices rise. While food companies attempt to pass on part of the costs, there are many cases where it is not possible.

“As a result, 30% of our members have no choice but to reduce or even stop production. The food has an average profit margin of about 4.5%, but that has already been halved. Many producers are happy when they break even. Producing at a loss is not possible, because then you will plunge your company into the abyss. We expect production to decline in the coming weeks.”

Dramatic consequences

“The situation is really dramatic,” the owner of a medium-sized producer of sauces said to De Morgen. “But everyone in the sector is in the same boat on a turbulent sea. Vegetable oil has been in short supply for years due to a combination of weaker harvests and geopolitical conditions.”

“During the lockdowns in Europe, Chinese buyers were taking everything,” he explains. “We didn’t dare to buy much, as you risk fines from the suppliers if you cannot purchase what you order. That means that we are now facing major shortages of rapeseed oil and others.”

That affects the price, as rapeseed oil was available at €750 per ton last year, while today the same will cost about €2,200. “Our supplier of eggs – a basic product for mayonnaise – has announced that it will stop. That company spends more money raising chickens than they get paid for the eggs.”

 

[Pickman's model]

I think it's incredibly worrying. Even if we don't see actual food shortages this year were bound to see huge price inflation on lots of products.

And it's a sign of things to come. What most people don't seem to get about climate change is that crop failures will likely get most of us long before sea level rise etc becomes a massive issue.

Sea level rise is a massive issue. The flooding of new york a few years back ought to have been a wake up call, let alone the flooding of new Orleans. There's all sorts of shit happening from rising sea levels, it's not years and years away

 

[lazythursday]

Sea level rise is a massive issue. The flooding of new york a few years back ought to have been a wake up call, let alone the flooding of new Orleans. There's all sorts of shit happening from rising sea levels, it's not years and years away

I don't disagree with you at all - it's just that I think for many people climate change is about sea level rise and fires in hot places and because they live neither in a hot place or by the coast they feel complacent. When actually it is starving die to simultaneous failure of the world's bread basket crop areas they should be concerned about.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't disagree with you at all - it's just that I think for many people climate change is about sea level rise and fires in hot places and because they live neither in a hot place or by the coast they feel complacent. When actually it is starving die to simultaneous failure of the world's bread basket crop areas they should be concerned about.

Yeh it's what's happening in the places which should be cold that ought to really concern, greenland alone has lost more four trillion tonnes of ice since 1992 Greenland lost almost 4 trillion tonnes of ice in less than 30 years. And what's going to happen to the rice in India when the water runs out?

 

[yield]

India bans all wheat exports over food security risk

Move imposed with immediate effect in attempt to control prices after heatwave damages crops

www.theguardian.com

 

[BristolEcho]

There is a huge drought in East Africa causing all sorts of problems. Sounds really grim.

 

[yield]

G7 warns of global hunger crisis unless Russia lifts Ukraine blockade
FT 14/05/2022 archive.ph

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said the G7 group of industrialised nations was urgently seeking alternative routes for the export of Ukrainian grain as Russia’s war against its western neighbour raised the risk of a global “hunger crisis”.

Speaking at the conclusion of a three-day meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Germany, Baerbock said some 25mn tonnes of grain were stuck in Ukrainian ports that were being blockaded by Russian forces — “grain that the world urgently needs”.

“Every tonne we can get out will help a bit to get to grips with this hunger crisis,” she said. “In the situation we’re in, every week counts.”

Wheat prices have been soaring in recent weeks over supply concerns caused by the Ukraine war, as well as a number of droughts around the world.

The US Department of Agriculture forecast that global supplies for the coming crop year would fall for the first time in four years.

Worries about the supply situation deepened on Saturday when India announced it was banning wheat exports, a move that is likely to push up food prices and fuel hunger in poor countries that rely on imports of Indian grain.

The government in New Delhi said the ban was designed to “manage the overall food security of the country”.

 

[quimcunx]

Apparently fertiliser prices have sky rocketed leading farmers to reduce how much they use which is leading to smaller yields. Also even if they go back to higher levels of fertiliser in a year or two the soil quality will take time to recover.

 

[yield]

India is one of the world's main food producers. Gotta hope for a bumper crop from USA, China and Brazil this year.

But at what cost as deforestation in Brazil will come back to haunt us.

 

[yield]

France's crop yields will be 'very poor' due to unprecedented drought

Extremely dry weather has caused severe damage to grain crops in some parts of France and substantial rain will be needed by early June to allow those in large producing regions to pull through, an agricultural…

www.france24.com

 

[Flavour]

it's happening

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Apparently fertiliser prices have sky rocketed leading farmers to reduce how much they use which is leading to smaller yields. Also even if they go back to higher levels of fertiliser in a year or two the soil quality will take time to recover.

I think farming practices are going to have to change. The Land Institute in Kansas is a sustainable farming research group looking for ways to produce food in quantity while lowering the inputs needed to sustain them. They're looking at a perennial grain called Kernza, among other perennial food crops. Its a grain that produces well per acre, and since its a planted once, doesn't require tilling. That saves on fuel, captures carbon, and allows the soil microbiome to flourish.

Kernza® Grain & Perennial Agriculture | The Land Institute

Learn how Kernza® grain, a perennial grain crop developed from intermediate wheatgrass by The Land Institute, is part of a new revolution in agriculture.

landinstitute.org