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Are Worldwide Food Shortages Coming? Rising costs, lower crop yields.

Yuwipi Woman said:
I think farming practices are going to have to change. The Land Institute in Kansas is a sustainable farming research group looking for ways to produce food in quantity while lowering the inputs needed to sustain them. They're looking at a perennial grain called Kernza, among other perennial food crops. Its a grain that produces well per acre, and since its a planted once, doesn't require tilling. That saves on fuel, captures carbon, and allows the soil microbiome to flourish.

landinstitute.org

Kernza® Grain & Perennial Agriculture | The Land Institute

Learn how Kernza® grain, a perennial grain crop developed from intermediate wheatgrass by The Land Institute, is part of a new revolution in agriculture.
landinstitute.org landinstitute.org
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Perennial grains! I remember reading about research on those a while back. Good to see it's still going.
 
UN Deletes Article Touting ‘Benefits’ of World Hunger: ‘Hungry People Are the Most Productive People’
mediaite.com Jul 7th, 2022

archive.ph

The Benefits of World Hunger | United Nations

archived 7 Jul 2022 03:38:47 UTC
archive.ph archive.ph
An article appearing on the United Nations Chronicle website as recently as Wednesday that touted the “benefits of world hunger” has seemingly been taken down.

Screenshots of the post, which web archives appear to show was first published in 2009, began to circulate on Twitter Wednesday.
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A link to the article, which now takes visitors to an error page.

It was archived before it was apparently scrubbed from the website by the agency on Thursday.

In it, former University of Hawaii professor George Kent wrote,
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We sometimes talk about hunger in the world as if it were a scourge that all of us want to see abolished, viewing it as comparable with the plague or aids. But that naïve view prevents us from coming to grips with what causes and sustains hunger. Hunger has great positive value to many people.
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Its worrying - I don't think we'll see the full effects until harvest 2023.

All inputs have gone through the roof - fuel, fert etc and there is the issue that synthetic fertiliser is derived from/requires fossil fuels, and the availability of synthetic K is dwindling.
So, even if the war in Ukraine ends soon, input costs are going to mean that crops are going to cost way more to produce.
Even with prices rising, the price of inputs exceeding these is meaning that it the profitability of combinable crops is falling and lots of farmers aren't bothering and are looking at what is available through environmental schemes (tree planting etc) instead.

A mate of mine is grazing some 200ac of grade 1 arable land to keep the grass down until the landowner puts the lot into trees sometime next year - this kind of thing is happening all over the place.
 
NoXion said:
Perennial grains! I remember reading about research on those a while back. Good to see it's still going.
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There's a lot going on with regen ag/grazing but the science never seems to catch up with it (so I'm a bit skeptical), but then I've seen case studies that the Savoury institute have been involved with that seem to be working.

Here are a couple online: Australian Holistic Management® Restoration Story - Holistic Management International
Reversing Desertification with Livestock - Our World

I'm working with someone at the moment experimenting with HPG (holistic planned grazing), I'm looking at dungbeetles because these systems often almost eliminate the need for anthelmintics and this should mean healthier insect populations, especially animals associated with dung. One of the things ive noticed whilst doing it is the phenomenal grass growth (which will be sequestering carbon and trapping water) and abundance then of wildlife living in it (lots of which has been buzzing at me or biting me - this does not include the cows).
 
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Funky_monks said:
A mate of mine is grazing some 200ac of grade 1 arable land to keep the grass down until the landowner puts the lot into trees sometime next year - this kind of thing is happening all over the place.
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I have a back couple of acres. We lost the alfalfa we had it in last year because it's so dry. When we can get enough rain to make it work, we're going to put it to grass. Now it's mostly poison hemlock and dock. Eventually, I'd like to plant it back to an orchard like it was in the 80s, but that will have to wait until I retire.
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
I have a back couple of acres. We lost the alfalfa we had it in last year because it's so dry. When we can get enough rain to make it work, we're going to put it to grass. Now it's mostly poison hemlock and dock. Eventually, I'd like to plant it back to an orchard like it was in the 80s, but that will have to wait until I retire.
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What fruits?
Hopefully you'll get some decent shading for water retention - in the meantime is cell grazing on long grass like holistic planned grazing an option? The trampling might help keep water in the soil
 
Funky_monks said:
What fruits?
Hopefully you'll get some decent shading for water retention - in the meantime is cell grazing on long grass like holistic planned grazing an option? The trampling might help keep water in the soil
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I was thinking cherries. Cherry cider is in high demand locally and gets a good price. Some of the traditional orchards can't get enough to cover demand so I'd probably end up selling to them and let them handle the cidering.

I know its unconventional, but I'd considered planting black walnuts. We have some walnuts on another acre, and we have pickers come for that every year. They get several loads just off that small patch.

There's no current plan to graze that section. Just going to bale it. It's mostly just a management plan for a plot that isn't big enough to be more than a nuisance.

You can be certain I won't plant corn. It was in corn for several decades and it degraded the land. It's also just not enough acres to make corn work once you get all of the inputs and labor figured in.
 
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They seem to go for apples and peaches on drier ground here. Was surprised about the peaches but there's varieties thrive. The apples make it through the sort of winters you get too. Would cherries? I know you see blossoms in the snow in the classic sakura festival.
 
JimW said:
They seem to go for apples and peaches on drier ground here. Was surprised about the peaches but there's varieties thrive.
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I was a bit surprised where peaches grow as well. The Navaho have a variety that's traditional. You won't find a drier place than the Four Corners area.

Centuries ago, the Navajo people tended flourishing peach orchards across the Four Corners area, where the states of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado meet. But in 1863, the U.S. government ordered the Navajo in Four Corners to leave their homelands.

When the Navajo refused to leave, General James H. Carleton ordered Colonel Christopher “Kit” Carson to slaughter their livestock, massacre any resistors, and burn their crops, notably their thousands of peach trees. One American troop, under the command of Captain John Thompson, claimed to have destroyed more than 3,000 peach trees. Thompson himself reported how his men, in a single day, cut down what he called 500 “of the best peach trees I have ever seen in the country, every one of them bearing fruit.”

The destruction nearly spelled the end of centuries of cultivation. In fact, Native Americans across the Southwest once grew vast peach orchards, some stretching all the way into the Grand Canyon. Scholars believe that the Pueblo communities in the Southwest were the first to receive peach seeds from the Spanish in the Rio Grande Valley. Appreciation for the fruit was widespread, and the plants passed from tribe to tribe, in many cases far in advance of any contact with European settlers.
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www.atlasobscura.com

Meet the Woman Restoring Native American Peaches to the Southwest

Searching for the precious trees has become Reagan Wytsalucy's calling.
www.atlasobscura.com www.atlasobscura.com

I've never had much luck with them.
 
JimW said:
Seem to be, rich insect life in general and you often see bee keepers living in tents in the orchards with their hives set out.
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That's good. I wonder about our pollinators. I used to have to stop every few miles to wipe the bugs off my windshield and now I can drive for days. I have a couple of apple trees that didn't pollinate well. I planted some bee-friendly plants and another variety of apple, and it's picked up considerably. I have a neighbor lady from Viet Nam who accused me of being rich because I have so many apples this year. (I told her to come take as many as she would like).
 
Cherries should be good for you , Yuwipi Woman - I grow a couple which have been bred in Canada (Lapins/Cherokee) and you might want to have a look at saskatoons and aronia. I think it will be lack of winter chill hours which does for my cherries. Do tell me more about this holistic grazing, @Funky monks . (dunno why I can't seem to tag you). My local farmer (and friend) has taken to grazing leys with alacrity so we now have a small wildflower meadow between our plots (instead of the dock and bramble wilderness it was when we bought the wood).and have been trying out sainfoin, lucerne, tares and such. He changed over to no dig and now uses a long drill to plant. Most of the land is grazing marsh and was owned by the crown and rented by the farmer until 40years ago, when he managed to buy 500 acres. Swapped from dairy to beef (cos of labour issues) and manages to run the farm with just his cowman (my friend). P, the farmer is 87 so it is a really brave change for him to make, after a lifetime of fairly traditional farming methods (although he still uses the Norfolk 4 course method).
 
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Yuwipi Woman said:
That's good. I wonder about our pollinators. I used to have to stop every few miles to wipe the bugs off my windshield and now I can drive for days. I have a couple of apple trees that didn't pollinate well. I planted some bee-friendly plants and another variety of apple, and it's picked up considerably. I have a neighbor lady from Viet Nam who accused me of being rich because I have so many apples this year. (I told her to come take as many as she would like).
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Beijing's bizarrely quite a wildlife haven. Rich bird life too and was just reading today about a species of small wildcat that's doing well.
 
campanula said:
Cherries should be good for you , Yuwipi Woman - I grow a couple which have been bred in Canada (Lapins/Cherokee) and you might want to have a look at saskatoons and aronia. I think it will be lack of winter chill hours which does for my cherries. Do tell me more about this holistic grazing, @Funky monks . (dunno why I can't seem to tag you). My local farmer (and friend) has taken to grazing leys with alacrity so we now have a small wildflower meadow between our plots (instead of the dock and bramble wilderness it was when we bought the wood).and have been trying out sainfoin, lucerne, tares and such. He changed over to no dig and now uses a long drill to plant. Most of the land is grazing marsh and was owned by the crown and rented by the farmer until 40years ago, when he managed to buy 500 acres. Swapped from dairy to beef (cos of labour issues) and manages to run the farm with just his cowman (my friend). P, the farmer is 87 so it is a really brave change for him to make, after a lifetime of fairly traditional farming methods (although he still uses the Norfolk 4 course method).
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I stopped tilling long ago. Between not tilling and the soil amendments I've done, its improved the soil quite a bit. It was pretty abused when I started. It was this grey lifeless stuff that wouldn't ball up in your hand. Not an earthworm to be found, even by digging down a foot. Now, it's a rich black with lots of worms that holds water well.

Have you heard of Joel Salatin? A lot of people are switching to his method of farming, but there's a lot of farmers that won't ever change.
 
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campanula said:
Cherries should be good for you , Yuwipi Woman - I grow a couple which have been bred in Canada (Lapins/Cherokee) and you might want to have a look at saskatoons and aronia. I think it will be lack of winter chill hours which does for my cherries. Do tell me more about this holistic grazing, @Funky monks . (dunno why I can't seem to tag you). My local farmer (and friend) has taken to grazing leys with alacrity so we now have a small wildflower meadow between our plots (instead of the dock and bramble wilderness it was when we bought the wood).and have been trying out sainfoin, lucerne, tares and such. He changed over to no dig and now uses a long drill to plant. Most of the land is grazing marsh and was owned by the crown and rented by the farmer until 40years ago, when he managed to buy 500 acres. Swapped from dairy to beef (cos of labour issues) and manages to run the farm with just his cowman (my friend). P, the farmer is 87 so it is a really brave change for him to make, after a lifetime of fairly traditional farming methods (although he still uses the Norfolk 4 course method).
Click to expand...

Holistic planned grazing is basically going back to how cattle and sheep used to be grazed more or less, with modern tweaks.

Basically you split into small paddocks with electric fencing and your animals get moved every 12, 24 or 36 hours depending on your system/take on it. this way they should eat a third, trample a third and dung a third and this helps to give structure back to the soil and reduce water loss through evaporation. You would adjust your paddocks based on grass growth rate (so much smaller in high summer). The idea is that it mimics grazing patterns of prey animals when natural predators are present (ie in tight herds). We are basically going back to Voisin's laws of the 50s (don't graze the regrowth!). I've just bought this to gain a bit of insight - not arrived yet.

Here's a little promotional video.



It has it's detractors though: Why Allan Savory’s TED Talk About Cattle and Global Warming Is Wrong

I would take issue with a few things in that article, not least the assertion at the end that grazing animals naturally would die and rot putting their nutrients back like that - they are prey species and certainly would not rot wholesale, even if they did die without any help from predators (which is unlikely, animals weakened by injury or disease to tend to get picked off), there are scavengers aplenty wherever you go that would eat them.

From reports, HPG seems to suffer when people try and scale it up massively - I've seen it working and its often in small/medium sized farms.
 
Was involved in translating a few essays in a debate about rangeland management here when they started fencing off what had been nomad grasslands. The denigration of traditional practices was of course fairly wrong-headed but not entirely and some of the new introductions did make sense but not allowing that shift between pastures was definitely a daft idea.
 
O right - the cows are moved around all summer and overwinter in the barn so the grazing leys are continually replenished. My local farmer has been doing this pretty much forever because the fields are small, bordered with drainage ditches (some of which dry out in the summer). Electric fences are hitched here, there and everywhere but the idea is to ensure the available space is chopped up into sections so that over a summer, every bit gets grazed once, then left to regrow, topped and oversown with a herbal base. Sounds fairly similar although the cows are moved every few days. All the grazing happens on marsh land which is too soft and unreliable for heavy machinery (we have had some fun watching Anglian water sink a JCB into what is basically a water meadow). The Yare will also overtop at least once a year. My wood is a metre higher than the surrounding marsh, so was put to hybrid poplar in the 1940s, last harvested in the 70s and pretty much undisturbed since then. i have a few enormous compost heaps which I transfer back to my Cambridge allotment as an autumn mulch. Only the second year of doing this (after 20 years of growing vegetables on what started off as rubbish sandy soil and got steadily worse. Good topsoil really is a precious resource and needs careful management, while I have been a bit cavalier with mine until hitting a wall a few years ago. Long process of getting it back into good fettle.
 
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campanula said:
O right - the cows are moved around all summer and overwinter in the barn so the grazing leys are continually replenished. My local farmer has been doing this pretty much forever because the fields are small, bordered with drainage ditches (some of which dry out in the summer). All the grazing happens on marsh land which is too soft and unreliable for any plant (we have had some fun watching Anglian water sink a JCB into what is basically a water meadow). My wood is a metre higher than the surrounding marsh, so was put to hybrid poplar in the 1940s, last harvested in the 70s and pretty much undisturbed since then. i have a few enormous compost heaps which I transfer back to my Cambridge allotment as an autumn mulch. Only the second year of doing this (after 20 years of growing vegetables on what started off as rubbish sandy soil and got steadily worse. Good topsoil really is a precious resource and needs careful management, while I have been a bit cavalier with mine until hitting a wall a few years ago. Long process of getting it back into good fettle.
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Yes, but the timings of the moves are important - you want the cattle or sheep to eat the grass down but not graze the regrowth until you are in at least the three leaf stage, otherwise the energy taken from the root mass to produce this growth is never restored, roots are small and moisture is lost.

Grass_leaf_life_cycle.pngpasture-rotation-grass-growth-rates.png
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
Now it's mostly poison hemlock and dock. ....
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Yuwipi Woman said:
There's no current plan to graze that section. Just going to bale it. It's mostly just a management plan for a plot that isn't big enough to be more than a nuisance.

You can be certain I won't plant corn. It was in corn for several decades and it degraded the land. It's also just not enough acres to make corn work once you get all of the inputs and labor figured in.
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I think I a little confused (doesn't take much).

What are you going to bale?


Also - corn is terrible for the soil. I don't think I have even seen corn planted in the same field two years in a row.
 
Funky_monks said:
Yes, but the timings of the moves are important - you want the cattle or sheep to eat the grass down but not graze the regrowth until you are in at least the three leaf stage, otherwise the energy taken from the root mass to produce this growth is never restored, roots are small and moisture is lost.
Click to expand...
pasture-rotation-grass-growth-rates.png


I like your chart.

Over here, the farmers do two cuttings of hay. Three if it is a good year.
The first cut is has the highest nutrients.

Again, using your chart, it helps explain why the cattle is not allowed grazing until the grass is a certain height.
If the animals go out too early, they will eat the grass that has little nutrient value and can make them sick (or that is what the farmers tell me)
 
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